The news is bristling with excitement as all the major media outlets are jumping on today’s employment numbers hot off the Bureau of Labor Statistics presses. The BLS reported that the Seasonally Adjusted U-3 unemployment rate was just 4.4% and the unadjusted broader based U-6 was just 8.1%.
In response to all this good news The New York Times said, “We’re Getting Awfully Close to Full Employment” and The Wall Street Journal trumpeted “Jobs Report: This Is What Full Employment Looks Like” so who am I to throw cold water on their parade? Well, at least I’m not the only one to have my doubts. Jared Bernstein at The Washington Post thinks that the current low inflation level is a factor that may indicate that we aren’t quite there yet. So I’m adding my own two-cents with the following chart. We regularly publish the U-6 minus U-3 chart which shows the differential between the ordinary unemployed U-3 and the bottom of the barrel unemployed U-6. By definition, in order to be at “full-employment” everyone who wants a job has to have one. That doesn’t mean Zero unemployment because there is a bit of friction in the system and so when people change jobs they are temporarily “unemployed” so there will always be some. Historically, this was assumed to be around 3% unemployment. So as the U-3 unemployment approaches 3% the U-6 people get drawn into the market. They may not have the skills or the ambition or the whatever but now they can find a job because companies are desperate.
So by looking at the U-6 minus the U-3 we can get a very good picture of when we are nearing “full employment”. So let’s look at that chart. [Read more…] about Why the U.S. Isn’t at “Full Employment” Yet
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