Tim McMahon, Editor of UnemploymentData.com

My grandfather lived through the Hyperinflation in Weimar, Germany--to say he was an original “gold bug” would be an understatement. I began reading his “hard money” newsletters at the age of 16 and the dividends from gold stocks helped put me through college. I began publishing the Financial Trend Forecaster paper newsletter in 1995 upon the death of James Moore editor of Your Window into the Future and the creator of the Moore Inflation Predictor©. FTF specializes in trends in the stock market, gold, inflation and bonds. In January of 2003, I began publishing InflationData.com to specialize in all forms of information about the nature of Inflation. In 2009, we added Elliott Wave University to help teach you the principles of Elliott Wave analysis. In January 2013, we began publishing OptioMoney. Connect with Tim on Google+.

Over a Million New Jobs Not 211,000

May 5, 2017 by Tim McMahon

According to the BLS Commissioner’s report for this month:

“The unemployment rate changed little over the month but, at 4.4 percent, matched the pre-recession low reached in 2007. The number of unemployed persons, at 7.1 million, also changed little in April.“

Today’s Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Commissioner’s Report says, “Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 211,000 in April, and the unemployment rate, at 4.4 percent, was little changed. Thus far this year, monthly job gains have averaged 185,000, in line with average monthly job growth in 2016. In April, job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, health care and social assistance, financial activities, and mining.”

But we have to remember that typically employment increases in April. So what the BLS Commissioner is saying is that 211,000 more jobs than average were created. In layman’s terms, unadjusted employment was 144.953 million in March and 145.979 in April for a net gain of 1,026,000 jobs.

Employment Growth Bubbles

In the above chart we see the various sectors of employment. The size of the bubble represents [Read more…] about Over a Million New Jobs Not 211,000

Why the U.S. Isn’t at “Full Employment” Yet

May 5, 2017 by Tim McMahon

The news is bristling with excitement as all the major media outlets are jumping on today’s employment numbers hot off the Bureau of Labor Statistics presses. The BLS reported that the Seasonally Adjusted U-3 unemployment rate was just 4.4% and the unadjusted broader based U-6 was just 8.1%.

In response to all this good news The New York Times said, “We’re Getting Awfully Close to Full Employment” and The Wall Street Journal trumpeted “Jobs Report: This Is What Full Employment Looks Like” so who am I to throw cold water on their parade? Well, at least I’m not the only one to have my doubts. Jared Bernstein at The Washington Post thinks that the current low inflation level is a factor that may indicate that we aren’t quite there yet. So I’m adding my own two-cents with the following chart. We regularly publish the U-6 minus U-3 chart which shows the differential between the ordinary unemployed U-3 and the bottom of the barrel unemployed U-6. By definition, in order to be at “full-employment” everyone who wants a job has to have one. That doesn’t mean Zero unemployment because there is a bit of friction in the system and so when people change jobs they are temporarily “unemployed” so there will always be some. Historically, this was assumed to be around 3% unemployment. So as the U-3 unemployment approaches 3% the U-6 people get drawn into the market. They may not have the skills or the ambition or the whatever but now they can find a job because companies are desperate.

So by looking at the U-6 minus the U-3 we can get a very good picture of when we are nearing “full employment”. So let’s look at that chart. [Read more…] about Why the U.S. Isn’t at “Full Employment” Yet

Unemployment Down in March

April 8, 2017 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly Employment/Unemployment report for the month ending in March on April 7^th. The widely publicized Seasonally Adjusted U-3 Unemployment rate was 4.5% down from 4.7% in February. While the broader U-6 unemployment rate that includes discouraged workers and other “marginally attached” individuals was 8.9% down from 9.5% in February.

The BLS’ Unadjusted U-3 was 4.6% in March down from 4.9% in February. The Gallup alternatives presented mixed results with Gallup’s Unadjusted U-3 at 5.7% up from 5.5% in February while Gallup’s version of the U-6 was unchanged at 13.7%.

The BLS Commissioner’s statement said, “The unemployment rate declined by 0.2 percentage point to 4.5 percent in March. Nonfarm payroll employment edged up by 98,000, following gains in January (+216,000) and February (+219,000). In March, job gains occurred in professional and business services and in mining, while retail employment declined.”

In the above chart we can see [Read more…] about Unemployment Down in March

Housing Ace: 5 Ways to Prepare for a Job in Real Estate

April 6, 2017 by Tim McMahon

Being a real estate agent can be a really great career for the right person. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) the median salary for a Real Estate agent is $45,610 per year. Real estate brokers and sales agents help clients buy, sell, and rent properties. Although brokers and agents do similar work, brokers are licensed to manage their own real estate businesses. Sales agents must work with a real estate broker. Generally, you must be an agent for a while before becoming a broker.

According to the BLS, “Brokers and agents can represent either the buyer or the seller in a transaction. Buyers’ brokers and agents meet with clients to understand what they are looking for in a property and how much they can afford. Sellers’ brokers and agents meet with clients to help them decide how much to ask for and to convince them that the agent or broker can find them a qualified buyer.

Real estate brokers and sales agents must be knowledgeable about the real estate market in their area. To match properties to clients’ needs, they should be familiar with local communities, including knowing the crime information and the proximity to schools and shopping. Brokers and agents also must stay current on financing options; government programs; types of available mortgages; and real estate, zoning, and fair housing laws.”

The hours are unusual since you may be showing homes when other people are off of work. Since you work on commission you may work for long periods without getting paid and then receive a large paycheck all at once. Some years are better than others depending on the overall market in your area. You must be self-motivated and a “people person”. But for the right individual this can be an excellent career choice. [Read more…] about Housing Ace: 5 Ways to Prepare for a Job in Real Estate

Preparing for a Healthcare Job Interview

March 14, 2017 by Tim McMahon

Looking for your first healthcare job is an exciting journey that may have a few bumps along the way. Although preparing and submitting a sleek resume is the first step of the process, the in-person interview may be the most important part. Good preparation, including reflecting on your experiences and learning more about the job, can transform you into an exceptional candidate. If you aren’t sure what you might need to prepare for in your interview, take a look at these ideas.

Prepare to Talk About Your Experiences

During the interview, your goal is to impress the interviewers with your capabilities and skills. Declaring that you’re good at talking with patients is helpful, but demonstrating [Read more…] about Preparing for a Healthcare Job Interview

New Unemployment Numbers- February

March 13, 2017 by Tim McMahon

On Friday March 10^th the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released their Employment and Unemployment numbers for February 2017. The media was making a big deal about these numbers because they represent the “First full month since Trump took office”.

The numbers turned out to be moderately “Bullish” although the Commissioner’s statement said, “Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 235,000 in February, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 4.7 percent. Employment gains occurred in construction, private educational services, manufacturing, health care, and mining.”

Now, I’m not complaining… gaining 235,000 jobs is certainly better than losing them but what’s the big deal? Well, first of all, the big deal is that [Read more…] about New Unemployment Numbers- February

Tradesmen Needed: Essential Services Make Good Job Prospects

February 9, 2017 by Tim McMahon

At one time or another, every part of your home will need repair or replacement. From the electrical wiring to the plumbing and heating and cooling systems, anything can break down or wear out. These essential parts of your home require a great deal of knowledge, skill and experience to repair. A novice could easily become injured or cause even more damage to the appliance or house. Consider these four essential services that you cannot live without as good job prospects.

Heating and Cooling

No matter where you live, your home needs a source of heat and some type of ventilation and cooling. Furnaces, boilers and heat pumps use a fuel such as natural gas, propane or electricity. These systems also have many mechanical parts. An experienced heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) technician works to ensure that this critical part of your home is operating safely and efficiently. So as long people need heated and air-conditioned homes HVAC Technicians will have jobs. The median annual wage for heating, air conditioning, and refrigeration mechanics and installers was $45,110 in May 2015. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) “Employment of heating, air conditioning, and refrigeration mechanics and installers is projected to grow 14 percent from 2014 to 2024, much faster than the average for all occupations. Candidates familiar with computers and electronics and those with good troubleshooting skills will have the best job opportunities as employers continue to have difficulty finding qualified technicians to install, maintain, and repair complex new systems.” [Read more…] about Tradesmen Needed: Essential Services Make Good Job Prospects

January Unemployment

February 3, 2017 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the newest unemployment data for January 2017 on Friday, February 3rd. According to the BLS, the current “Seasonally Adjusted” Unemployment Rate is 4.8% up from 4.7% in December and 4.6% in November but still below the 4.9% in October.

The current “Unadjusted” rate is 5.1% up from 4.5% in December and 4.4% in November. Typically unadjusted unemployment rates jump in January for “Seasonal” reasons which is why we see a large jump in the unadjusted rates but a much smaller jump in the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate. See Current Unemployment Rate for more info.

The number of Unadjusted jobs reported for January was [Read more…] about January Unemployment

Managing Your Money and Your Expectations For Retirement

February 1, 2017 by Tim McMahon

Any change can be stressful, even a “good change” but especially stressful are changes regarding financial stability and retiring from work is one of the biggest changes in life. Relying on investments and savings rather than a monthly salary can seem daunting at first, but a little planning goes a long way, especially if you do so sooner rather than later.

Planning Ahead

You can start planning for retirement at any age but obviously [Read more…] about Managing Your Money and Your Expectations For Retirement