Tim McMahon, Editor of UnemploymentData.com

My grandfather lived through the Hyperinflation in Weimar, Germany--to say he was an original “gold bug” would be an understatement. I began reading his “hard money” newsletters at the age of 16 and the dividends from gold stocks helped put me through college. I began publishing the Financial Trend Forecaster paper newsletter in 1995 upon the death of James Moore editor of Your Window into the Future and the creator of the Moore Inflation Predictor©. FTF specializes in trends in the stock market, gold, inflation and bonds. In January of 2003, I began publishing InflationData.com to specialize in all forms of information about the nature of Inflation. In 2009, we added Elliott Wave University to help teach you the principles of Elliott Wave analysis. In January 2013, we began publishing OptioMoney. Connect with Tim on Google+.

When is Moving for a Career Worth It?

January 11, 2017 by Tim McMahon

In the current job marketplace, more people are being forced to consider relocating in order to either find the job of their dreams or even just to find any job at all. With every passing year, the idea of remaining with the same employer for decades has become more the exception and much less the rule. While moving on to greener pastures can be alluring, knowing when to make the leap is important. To determine whether or not relocating is the right call to make, it pays to keep the following things in mind.

New Expenses

Consider the difference in the costs of living between [Read more…] about When is Moving for a Career Worth It?

Unemployment Inches Up

January 6, 2017 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced on Friday January 6th, 2017 that the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for December was 4.7% up from 4.6% in November. The unadjusted U-3 came in at 4.5% up from 4.4% in November. Gallup on the other hand says the unadjusted U-3 is 5.1% up from 4.9% in November.

The U-6 unemployment rate, which includes discouraged workers, marginally attached workers and part-time workers who want to work full-time, was 9.1% in December up from 9.0% in November.
Gallup says their equivalent “Under Employment Rate” was 13.7% in December up from 13.0% in November.

For the 20 years from 1989 to 2009 the Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) held fairly steady at around 66%
of the workforce being employed.

But starting in 2010 [Read more…] about Unemployment Inches Up

Is the U.S. Really at “Full Employment”?

January 6, 2017 by Tim McMahon

Back in February of 2016 Fortune magazine published an article entitled “The U.S. Economy Is Finally at Full Employment” and then in May CNN-Money published an article entitled The U.S. is ‘basically at full employment’ quoting San Francisco Federal Reserve President John Williams as saying “We’re basically at full employment…that’s very good news.”

“We’re basically at full employment…that’s very good news.” San Francisco Federal Reserve President John Williams

So what is “Full-Employment” and are we really there? At first glance you might think that full employment should equal 0% and with the current unemployment rate hovering around 4.7% we obviously aren’t there. But Full employment, in macroeconomics, is defined by many economists as being an acceptable level of unemployment somewhere above 0%.

Even when employers are having difficulty finding employees some people are [Read more…] about Is the U.S. Really at “Full Employment”?

How to Increase Your Earning Potential

December 28, 2016 by Tim McMahon

We all seem to be too busy, you know how hard it is to find extra time in your schedule to plan any new projects. This is a common problem for people who want to increase their earning potential. You want to improve life for your family, but fitting in new activities seems impossible. Here are four ways you can increase your earning potential while taking care of your family and other responsibilities.

Earn a Certification

If you don’t have time to return to school full-time, you should consider getting certified for a skill or program that’s in demand. This is something you can do by taking a single course. Community colleges commonly offer certification courses. Some possibilities include computer programming languages, Microsoft Office Specialist or Notary Public. If you can’t see yourself taking even a single course, you can do [Read more…] about How to Increase Your Earning Potential

November Unemployment Rates- Economic Confidence Up After Election

December 3, 2016 by Tim McMahon

On Friday, December 2^nd the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their Employment and Unemployment data for the month of November. According to the BLS numbers Seasonally Adjusted U-3 unemployment was 4.6% down from 4.9% in October. Unadjusted U-3 was 4.4% down from 4.7%. According to Gallup unadjusted U-3 was 4.9% down from 5.1%.

U-6 unemployment was 9.0% according to the BLS down from 9.2% in October while Gallup’s equivalent “Underemployment Rate” was at 13%.

Interestingly, Gallup’s “Economic Confidence” jumped into positive territory shortly after the election for the first time since early 2015 and for only the second time since the index was created in early 2009. The week prior to the election economic confidence was at -11 and currently it is at +4. According to Gallup, “This is the first positive weekly reading in more than a year and a half.” Read the full story.

In other political news, President-Elect Trump has already set the tone for his Presidency by convincing Carrier to not outsource 1000 of the planned 2000 jobs slated to go to Mexico.

Current Unemployment Rate Chart-

According to the BLS Commissioner’s report for this month: [Read more…] about November Unemployment Rates- Economic Confidence Up After Election

10 Careers Off the Beaten Path

November 3, 2016 by Tim McMahon

Law, medicine and engineering are traditional professions promoted because they are known to provide good salaries and stable employment. People have been led to believe that if you get into any of these fields you are guaranteed to get rich. This is the reason many children are encouraged to get education in these fields.

While many people enjoy these lines of work, not everyone is cut out to make it in these industries. There are various reasons why might not want to pursue a traditional career.

The question is, if these careers don’t suit you does that mean you are out of luck? No! You can still find a high paying job even if you didn’t end up becoming a doctor, lawyer or engineer.

These days, there are several other jobs that are outside these fields but are also popular [Read more…] about 10 Careers Off the Beaten Path

September Unemployment Numbers

October 7, 2016 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the Unemployment numbers for the month of September on Friday, October 7^th. The Seasonally Adjusted U-3 Unemployment rate was 5.0% after being 4.9% for three months in a row. The unadjusted U-3 Unemployment rate was 4.8% and Gallup’s equivalent unadjusted rate was 5.3% for a 0.5% difference.

The unadjusted U-6 Unemployment rate which includes “discouraged workers”, “marginally attached workers” and Part time workers who want to work full-time was 9.3% in September down from 9.7% in August while Gallup’s equivalent which they call the “Underemployment rate” was 12.8% down from
13.1% in August. The civilian non-institutional population increased another 237,000 this month bringing it to 254,091,000.

According to the BLS Commissioner’s report for this month:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 156,000 in September, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 5.0 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment gains occurred in professional and business services and in health care…The unemployment rate, at 5.0 percent, and the number of unemployed persons, at 7.9 million, changed little in September. Both measures have shown little movement, on net, since August of last year… Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for Hispanics increased to 6.4 percent in September, while the rates for adult men (4.7 percent), adult women (4.4 percent), teenagers (15.8 percent), Whites (4.4 percent), Blacks (8.3 percent), and Asians (3.9 percent) showed little or no change. The number of persons unemployed less than 5 weeks increased by 284,000 to 2.6 million in September. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was essentially unchanged at 2.0 million and accounted for 24.9 percent of the unemployed.”

See Current Unemployment Rate Chart for full commentary.

The number of Unadjusted jobs reported for September was 144.943 million up from August’s 144.424 million but still below June’s 145.215 million. Employment is slightly above November 2015’s previous peak of 144.122 million.

According to the BLS, in November 2007 there were 139,443,000 people employed, the unadjusted unemployment rate was 4.5% and the civilian non-institutional population was approximately 232 million. In September of 2016, there were 144,943,000 employed for a net increase of 5.433 million jobs with an unadjusted unemployment rate of 4.8%.

But now there are 254.091 million civilians (not in jail, the military or institutions). So the population has increased by over 22 million. Since almost half of the population is looking for jobs (Gallup says the payroll to population rate has fallen to 45.7%) we would need over 10 million (22 x 0.457) more jobs just to be at the same employment level we were in 2007. But employment only increased by 5.4 million. So we are about 5 million jobs short. But somehow the unemployment rate is roughly the same??? See Current Employment Data for more info. [Read more…] about September Unemployment Numbers

August Unemployment Numbers- 4.9%

September 2, 2016 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the Unemployment numbers for the month of August on Friday September 2^nd. The commonly quoted Seasonally Adjusted U-3 Unemployment rate was 4.9% for the third month in a row. The unadjusted U-3 Unemployment rate was 5.0% and Gallup’s equivalent was 5.4% for a “mere” 0.4% difference.

The broader U-6 Unemployment rate (also unadjusted) which includes “discouraged workers”, “marginally attached workers” and Part time workers who want to work full-time was 9.7% in August while Gallup’s equivalent which they call the “Underemployment rate” was 3.4% higher at 13.1%. The civilian non-institutional population increased another 234,000 this month bringing it to 253,854,000.

According to the BLS Commissioner’s report for this month:

“Nonfarm payroll employment increased by [seasonally adjusted~ editor] 151,000 in August, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.9 percent. Employment continued to trend up in several service-providing industries. Incorporating revisions for June and July, which reduced nonfarm payroll employment by 1,000 on net, monthly job gains have averaged 232,000 over the past 3 months. In the 12 months prior to August, employment growth averaged 204,000 per month. Employment in food services and drinking places continued to trend up in August (+34,000). Over the year, the industry has added 312,000 jobs… Mining employment continued on a downward trend in August (-4,000). Although job losses have moderated in the last 3 months, employment in mining has fallen by 223,000 since a peak in September 2014.”

In other words, the vast majority of the jobs [Read more…] about August Unemployment Numbers- 4.9%

MSN Picks Up Our Theme of “The Real Unemployment Rate”

August 5, 2016 by Tim McMahon

The Bureau of Labor Statistics published the July Employment/Unemployment numbers on August 5^th .

The seasonally adjusted U-3 (the commonly quoted unemployment rate) was unchanged at 4.9%.
BLS’ Unadjusted U-3 was also unchanged at 5.1%.
BLS’ Unadjusted U-6 increased 0.2% to 10.1%
Gallup’s unadjusted U-3 fell from 5.4% to join the BLS’ 5.1%.
Gallup’s U-6 fell from 13.4% to 12.7% to remain 2.6% higher than the BLS’ U-6.

Meanwhile, MSN’s CNBC decided to enter the fray and help “clarify” the confusing employment situation with an article entitled “Now that you know the official jobs number, here’s the real unemployment rate”. Unfortunately, this article may do more to confuse than to clarify.

In the article author Nicholas Wells delves into the possibility that the U-3 is not as important as the U-6… which [Read more…] about MSN Picks Up Our Theme of “The Real Unemployment Rate”

Employment and Unemployment Rates Jump in June???

July 8, 2016 by Tim McMahon

On Friday July 8th, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their newest unemployment data for June 2016. According to the BLS, the current “Seasonally Adjusted” Unemployment Rate is 4.9% up from 4.7% for May. The current “Unadjusted” rate is 5.1% up from 4.5% in May.

In an interesting twist, although total non-farm payroll employment increased by 287,000 in June, the unemployment rate also rose to 4.9 percent from 4.7%. [Read more…] about Employment and Unemployment Rates Jump in June???