Tim McMahon, Editor of UnemploymentData.com

My grandfather lived through the Hyperinflation in Weimar, Germany--to say he was an original “gold bug” would be an understatement. I began reading his “hard money” newsletters at the age of 16 and the dividends from gold stocks helped put me through college. I began publishing the Financial Trend Forecaster paper newsletter in 1995 upon the death of James Moore editor of Your Window into the Future and the creator of the Moore Inflation Predictor©. FTF specializes in trends in the stock market, gold, inflation and bonds. In January of 2003, I began publishing InflationData.com to specialize in all forms of information about the nature of Inflation. In 2009, we added Elliott Wave University to help teach you the principles of Elliott Wave analysis. In January 2013, we began publishing OptioMoney. Connect with Tim on Google+.

7 Tips to Cutting Business Expenses

February 23, 2016 by Tim McMahon

Business expenses can quickly spin out of control and cause you, the proprietor, quite a bit of undue stress. So, how do you prevent it and more importantly how do you get back the monetary control that you need in order to keep your business healthy?

Pay Attention to Even the Smallest Business Expenses

The important thing, when cutting business expenses, is to go over thems with a fine-tooth comb. Begin by taking a look at your available funds and your overall expenses. Scour your accounting information and pay attention to all of the details.

Plug the leaks

#1 Check your records for exactly where your cash is going, who you are paying, etc. Make sure all of the expenses are vital (and legitimate), and see if there can be changes made in order to increase revenue. Plug the leaks, whether it is employee theft of office supplies or wasted electricity. These things might seem small but [Read more…] about 7 Tips to Cutting Business Expenses

BLS Releases October Employment Figures

November 6, 2015 by Tim McMahon

Current Unemployment Rate Chart

According to the latest U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data release on November 6th the current “Seasonally Adjusted” Unemployment Rate for October is 5.0% down from September’s 5.1% which was down significantly from last October’s 5.8%. The “Unadjusted” rate is 4.8% down from 5.6% in July and much lower than January’s 6.1%. See: Current Chart

According to the BLS, the U-6 Unemployment Rate for October was 9.5%. U-6 unemployment includes short-term discouraged workers who have given up looking for work because they feel there is no work available for them.

However, since 2010, Gallup (the survey/Pollsters) have been doing their own employment survey using basically the same parameters as the BLS and they conclude that the current U-6 (which they call the “UnderEmployment Rate) is actually 13.8% down from 14.1% in September.

According to John William’s Shadowstats the government began underestimating unemployment back in 1994 when they changed the way unemployment was calculated since “long-term discouraged workers were defined out of official existence”. The new U-6 numbers only include short-term discouraged workers. The following chart shows their calculations for Unemployment based on their estimates of what it would be if unemployment was calculated the pre-1994 way.

Current Employment Data

According to the current Bureau of Labor Statistics data, the employment situation for the month of October 2015 was as follows: The number of Unadjusted jobs reported for October 2015 was 143.739 million. That was up from June’s previous peak of 142.836 million.

For more information see: Current Employment Data

Current Employment vs Unemployment Chart

When looking at employment vs. unemployment you would think that they would simply be the inverse of each other. Flip one over and you have the other. But the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) actually uses two entirely different surveys to calculate them. So by comparing them we can spot irregularities. See Employment vs. Unemployment for more information.

Historical Employment Data

In this chart we can see the historical employment figures from 1939 through the present. But in addition to the number of jobs we can also see the recessions shaded blue.

See: Historical Employment Levels for more information.

The misery index combines two factors that can make life difficult for people i.e. unemployment and inflation. High levels of price inflation (rapidly rising prices) will cause households to have difficulty affording the basic necessities while high unemployment will leave a high percentage of households without any income at all.

See: InflationData’s Misery Index.

Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate

The U-3 Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate is the standard unemployment rate that the government prefers to use since it presents a much rosier picture than the U-6. Go here if you would like to see the “Unemployment Rate” in table form.

Unadjusted vs. Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate

Although the Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate is often quoted by the main stream media (MSM) people often wonder how much fudging goes on in the adjustment process. In this chart you can see how the Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate compares with the Unadjusted rate.

Although it doesn’t appear that there is much “fudging” going on with the Seasonal adjustments that doesn’t mean the numbers are without problems. See Is the Government Fudging the Unemployment numbers for some alternative ways to get a better picture of the employment situation.

See Also:

What is U-6 Unemployment for more information about the different definitions of unemployment.
Current U-6 Unemployment Rate
What is the Real Unemployment Rate?

High Paid Miners Now Working at Walmart?

October 2, 2015 by Tim McMahon

September Employment Numbers Disappointing

Apparently U.S. employers cut back on hiring over the last two months. The expectation by economists polled by Reuters was that there would be a net gain of 203,000 jobs in September.

But when the BLS released their “preliminary estimates” for the employment situation for September non-farm employment rose by only 142,000 in September. And to make matters worse, August numbers were adjusted down resulting in the smallest Seasonally adjusted two month gain in over a year.

The BLS Commissioner’s report stated, “Job gains occurred in health care and information, while mining employment fell… The number of persons unemployed for less than 5 weeks increased by 268,000 to 2.4 million in September, partially offsetting a decline in August… Thus far in 2015, job growth has averaged 198,000 per month, compared with an average monthly gain of 260,000 in 2014.”

So 2015 has averaged only 76% the job growth that 2014 had and at 142,000 September was only 54% of 2014’s average. 34,000 new jobs were created by healthcare, 31,000 came from professional and business services, 24,000 from retail trade employment, and food services and drinking places added 21,000 jobs. On the other hand, mining and mining support lost -17,000 jobs. So it appears all the high paid mining workers are now working at either McDonald’s or Walmart. Not a good trend at all!

See Current Employment Commentary for more information.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) also released the newest unemployment data for September 2015 today. According to the BLS, the current “Seasonally Adjusted” Unemployment Rate for September is 5.1% identical to August. The BLS reported the “Unadjusted” Unemployment Rate is 4.9% which is lower than August’s 5.2% . See Current Unemployment Chart for more information.

In our chart of employment vs. unemployment we compare them and although you would expect that employment and unemployment are simply the inverse of each other (i.e flip one over and you have the other) actually there are several anomalies in the data. Because the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) uses two separate surveys to calculate the data it helps us see [Read more…] about High Paid Miners Now Working at Walmart?

Six Unexpected Payoffs of Having a Sales Job

October 1, 2015 by Tim McMahon

In an age where companies must use a wide range of different marketing tactics to compete, the salesman has somewhat of a bad reputation. While many salespeople are helpful professionals, many people think of the aggressive telemarketer or the high-pressure car salesman when they picture what it looks like to work in sales. In actuality, sales jobs can be extremely lucrative and the experience attained can offer professionals an extreme advantage in the job market. Here are six payoffs you might not expect to have when you start a career in sales.

Rewards Go Beyond Just Commissions

Whenever you take a job, you expect to be paid as long as you are performing. Most people know that the top-selling professionals who are working for the right company can earn serious coin by hitting their targets. While a good salary and fair commissions are important, you need to look beyond the money. Many companies will offer their top salespeople company cars, bonuses, cruises, trips for conferences, and other perks that will make life in and out of the office more [Read more…] about Six Unexpected Payoffs of Having a Sales Job

August Unemployment Down

September 4, 2015 by Tim McMahon

The BLS issued their “preliminary estimates” for the employment situation for the month of August 2015. The Commissioner’s report regarding the Seasonally Adjusted numbers says, “Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 173,000 in August, and the unemployment rate edged down to 5.1 percent. Employment rose in health care and social assistance and in financial activities, while manufacturing and mining employment declined.”

The full report of unadjusted numbers states that there were 142.126 Million jobs in August compared to 141.794 million jobs in July and 142.868 million jobs in June.

See Current Employment Commentary for more information.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) also released the newest unemployment data for August 2015 today. According to the BLS, the current “Seasonally Adjusted” Unemployment Rate for July is 5.1% down from July’s 5.3%. The BLS reported the “Unadjusted” Unemployment Rate is 5.2% which is lower than July’s 5.6% . See Current Unemployment Chart for more information.

Tips for Finding the Right Employee

August 12, 2015 by Tim McMahon

Your employees are the heart of your business, so hiring the right applicant is a huge decision you want to get right the first time. Large-platform job-search sites can generate hundreds of applicants for your opening, but you’ll need to develop a good strategy for limiting that pool if you want to find the perfect candidate. Below are five tips to help you narrow your applicant field and attract the candidates you really want.

Know Who You Want

Before you list your job opening, [Read more…] about Tips for Finding the Right Employee

July Unemployment Data Released

August 7, 2015 by Tim McMahon

The BLS issued their “preliminary estimates” for the employment situation for the month of July 2015. Their abbreviated report using seasonally adjusted numbers says, “Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 215,000 in July, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in retail trade, health care, professional and technical services, and financial activities.”

The full report of unadjusted numbers states that there were 141.794 million jobs in July down from 142.817 million jobs initially reported in June. At the same time they revised the numbers for June up to 142.839 million making the real loss of jobs -1,045,000. See Current Employment Commentary for more information.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) also released the newest unemployment data for July 2015 today. According to the BLS, the current “Seasonally Adjusted” Unemployment Rate for July is 5.3% the same as June but down from May’s 5.5%. The BLS reported the “Unadjusted” Unemployment Rate is 5.6% which is lower than January’s 6.1% but up from June’s unadjusted 5.5%. See Current Unemployment Chart for more information.

Normally, you would expect that employment and unemployment should simply be the inverse of each other. Flip one over and you have the other. However, in the chart of employment vs. unemployment we see several anomalies in the data. Since the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) actually uses two entirely different surveys to calculate them it helps us see [Read more…] about July Unemployment Data Released

June Unemployment Data

July 2, 2015 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the newest unemployment data for June 2015 on the first Thursday of July (rather than Friday due to the holiday). According to the BLS, the current “Seasonally Adjusted” Unemployment Rate for June is 5.3% down from May’s 5.5%. The BLS reported the “Unadjusted” Unemployment Rate is 5.5% which is lower than January’s 6.1% equal to last October’s unadjusted 5.5% but up from April’s 5.1%. See Current Unemployment Chart and Job Growth Stalls, Labor Participation at 38-Year Low for more information. The BLS issued their “preliminary estimates” for the employment situation for the month of June 2015. The report states 142.589 million jobs reported. That’s up 455,000 from May. But at the same time they revised the numbers for May down by 58,000 making the real gain (compared to the numbers they reported last month) 397,000. See Current Employment Commentary for more information.

Historical Employment Levels Compared to Recessions

In addition to the number of jobs from 1939 through the present this chart shows the recessions shaded blue as per the official description of a “recession” by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Although during some periods which are classified as official recessions the unemployment rate didn’t skyrocket generally, recessions correspond pretty well to declines in employment (i.e. increased Unemployment). This is especially true since unemployment is one of the factors NBER uses to determine whether there is an official recession. But theoretically if all the other factors line up employment could remain steady and the economy could be in a recession. See Employment During Recessions for more information. In this chart we compare employment vs. unemployment in an effort to get a more complete picture of the employment situation. Normally, you would think that they should simply be the inverse of each other. Flip one over and you have the other. But the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) actually uses two entirely different surveys to calculate them. And the current chart shows [Read more…] about June Unemployment Data

May Unemployment Data

June 5, 2015 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the newest unemployment data for May 2015 on Friday June 5^th. According to the BLS, the current “Seasonally Adjusted” Unemployment Rate for May is 5.5% up from April’s 5.4%. The BLS reported the “Unadjusted” Unemployment Rate is 5.3% which is lower than October’s unadjusted 5.5% and January’s 6.1% but up from April’s 5.1%. See Current Unemployment Chart for more information.

The BLS “preliminary estimates” for the employment situation for the month of May 2015 include 142.420 million jobs reported for May 2015. That was up 970,000 from April. But at the same time they revised the numbers for April down by 12,000. See Current Employment Commentary for more information.

BLS Releases Unemployment Rates for April

May 9, 2015 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Employment and Unemployment rates for the month of April 2015 on Friday May 8th. The commonly quoted Seasonally Adjusted U-3 Unemployment rate was 5.4% down slightly from 5.5% in both February and March.

The unadjusted U3 was 5.1% while the broader unadjusted U6 [Read more…] about BLS Releases Unemployment Rates for April