BLS

BLS Releases May 2026 Jobs Report

June 6, 2026 by Tim McMahon Leave a Comment

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its May
employment / unemployment report on June 5^th,2026.

Employment / Unemployment

Seasonally Adjusted U-3 is 4.3% Unchanged
Unadjusted U-3 is 4.1% up from 4.0%
Unadjusted U-6 is 7.7% Unchanged
Labor Force Participation is 61.8% Unchanged
Unadjusted Employment rose from 158.726 million to 159.467 million
Next Update: July 2^nd, 2026

Summary:
The jobs report came in much higher than expected, with an uncharacteristic adjustment upward for the previous month’s numbers (April). The biggest gainer was Leisure and hospitality, gaining 70,000 jobs. Job losses occurred in insurance carriers and related activities (-11,000) and commercial banking (-3,000).

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 172,000 in May, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, local government, and health care. Employment in financial activities declined…

The number of people jobless less than 5 weeks declined by 286,000 to 2.2 million in May, largely offsetting an increase in the prior month. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was little changed over the month at 2.0 million but is up by 524,000 over the year. The long-term unemployed accounted for 27.5 percent of all unemployed people in May.”

So, despite declines in Government employment, overall employment still increased.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally, the BLS reported employment of 158.695 million for April, which they have since adjusted upward to 158.726 million, an increase of 31,000. Current May numbers are 159.467 million for an increase of 741,000 jobs based on their current numbers or +772,000 based on the original numbers.

Note: According to Politifact, “The federal workforce grew by about 4.8% during Biden’s term, increasing from 2.89 million in January 2021 to 3.02 million in January 2025.”

So, Trump has reduced the federal payroll by more than twice what it gained under Biden. Although this does reduce budget pressure, it also puts pressure on the job market for those who are seeking other employment. It is estimated that between 30-40% of these workers retired, while perhaps 10-15% were working spouses who chose to stay home rather than seek other employment.

May Jobs Report for April 2026

May 9, 2026 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its April
employment / unemployment report on May 8^th,2026.

Employment / Unemployment

Seasonally Adjusted U-3 is 4.3% Unchanged
Unadjusted U-3 is 4.0% down from 4.3%
Unadjusted U-6 is 7.7% down from 8.0%
Labor Force Participation is 61.8% down from 61.9%
Unadjusted Employment rose from 157.769 million to 158.695 million
Next Update: June 5^th, 2026

Summary:
The jobs report came in higher than expected, with only a minor adjustment downward for the previous month’s numbers (March). The biggest gainer was Education and Health, gaining 46,000 jobs. The biggest loser was Information, with a loss of -13,000 jobs, and with only three sectors declining.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment edged up by 115,000 in April, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, transportation and warehousing, and retail trade… Federal government employment continued to decline in April (-9,000). Since reaching a peak in October 2024, federal government employment is down by 348,000, or 11.5 percent”.

So, despite declines in Government employment, overall employment still increased.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally, the BLS reported employment of 157.775 million for March, which they have now adjusted to 157.769 million. Current April numbers are 158.695 million for an increase of 926,000 jobs based on their current numbers or +920,000 based on the original numbers.

Note: According to Politifact, “The federal workforce grew by about 4.8% during Biden’s term, increasing from 2.89 million in January 2021 to 3.02 million in January 2025.”

April Employment Report for March 2026

April 4, 2026 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its March
employment / unemployment report on April 3^rd,2026.

Employment / Unemployment

Seasonally Adjusted U-3 is 4.3% down from 4.4%
Unadjusted U-3 is also 4.3% down from 4.7%
Unadjusted U-6 is 8.0% it was 8.3%
Labor Force Participation is 61.9% it was 62.0%
Unadjusted Employment rose from 157.204 million to 157.775 million
Next Update: May 8^th, 2026

Summary:
The BLS adjusted its February employment numbers downward by 82,000 this month, from 157.286 million to 157.204 million. But the March numbers are still up to 157.775 million. The Census numbers are also a bit unusual this month, in that the U.S. Census Population Clock said 343,369,720 last month, and now it says: 342,414,097. For a decrease of almost 956,000. Since the clock is just an automated estimate, the Census Bureau adjusts it annually to better reflect current population estimates.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 178,000 in March, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, in construction, and in transportation and warehousing. Federal government employment continued to decline.”

So, despite declines in Government employment, overall employment still increased.

Note: According to Politifact, “The federal workforce grew by about 4.8% during Biden’s term, increasing from 2.89 million in January 2021 to 3.02 million in January 2025.” According to the Economic Policy Institute, “Federal employment has declined by 352,000 jobs since January 2025.”

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally, the BLS reported employment of 156.714 million for January, which they adjusted slightly to 156.723 million in February and up again to 156.728 million this month.

They originally reported 157.286 million jobs for February, which they adjusted down to 157.204 million this month.

Current March numbers are 157.775 million for an increase of 571,000 jobs based on their current numbers or +489,000 based on the original numbers.

March Employment Report for February 2026

March 7, 2026 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its February
employment / unemployment report on March 6^th,2026.

Employment / Unemployment

Seasonally Adjusted U-3 was 4.4% up from 4.3%
Unadjusted U-3 was 4.7%
Unadjusted U-6 was 8.3%
Labor Force Participation was 62.0%
Unadjusted Employment rose from 156.723 million to 157.286 million
30,000 of the Job losses are temporary due to a strike
ADP is reporting 63,000 Jobs added in February, saying “Hiring jumped in February, delivering the best showing for job gains since November 2025″
Next Update: April 3rd, 2026

Summary:

The BLS adjusted many of its numbers this month. According to the BLS “January 2026 estimates were revised to incorporate updated population controls.” January’s UnAdjusted U-6 was increased from 8.7% to 8.8%, UnAdjusted U3 was increased from 4.6% to 4.7%, but the Seasonally Adjusted U3 remained the same at 4.3%. The changes were based on the adjustment of the Civilian population from 274.982 million to 274.676 million.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment edged down by 92,000 in February, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.4 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment in health care decreased, reflecting strike activity. Employment in information and federal government continued to trend down… Both the unemployment rate, at 4.4 percent, and the number of unemployed people, at 7.6 million, changed little in February.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs,” and there was a major strike of Healthcare workers in California and Hawaii that accounted for 30,000 of those lost jobs, which will be back shortly.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally, the BLS reported employment of 156.714 million for January, which they adjusted slightly to 156.723 million this month.

They are currently reporting 157.286 million jobs for February which is actually an increase of 572,000 jobs based on their original numbers. The LFPR was originally 62.5% in January, but January’s numbers were adjusted down to 62.1% this month. February is said to be 62.0%.

AI Is an Easy Scapegoat for Layoffs

Several major companies across tech, finance, logistics, and consulting have publicly cited AI or “AI-driven efficiencies” as justification for layoffs. The most explicit examples include Block, Amazon, Salesforce, Accenture, and dozens more identified in aggregated reports. Some CEOs and analysts argue many firms are using AI as a scapegoat for deeper business problems.

Block cut ~40% of its workforce (~4,000 jobs). CEO Jack Dorsey said AI “enables a significantly smaller team to do more and do it better.” But they were really inefficient to start with.

Amazon blamed AI for a 14,000-job reduction. Meta cited AI investments while cutting jobs; critics say the real cause was overexpansion. Google said layoffs linked to “AI-driven restructuring,” though OpenAI’s Sam Altman says AI is not the real driver. According to CNBC, many firms “significantly overhired” and are now using AI as a public-facing justification for layoffs.

Bottom line: Although AI is enabling some productivity gains and role consolidation, especially in customer support, basic coding, content production, and back-office workflows. But, announced “AI-related layoffs” are still a small share of total layoffs, and Macro productivity data doesn’t yet show a clear, AI-driven step-change. Many firms appear to be using AI as an excuse to impress investors, signal “modernization,” or cover overhiring and weak demand rather than reporting actual savings.

On Wednesday, the European Central Bank (“ECB”) contradicted the AI job loss narrative by saying:
“Companies that make significant use of AI are about 4% more likely to take on additional staff. In other words, AI-intensive firms tend, on average, to hire rather than fire. Much the same can be said of investment in AI: firms that invest in AI are nearly 2% more likely to hire additional staff than those that don’t.”

Unemployment Report for December 2025

January 10, 2026 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report
for December on January 9^th,2026.

Employment / Unemployment

Seasonally Adjusted U3- 4.4% in December
Unadjusted U3- 4.1% down from 4.3% in November
Unadjusted U6- 8.2% down from 8.4% in November
Labor Force Participation Rate- 62.4%
Employment- 160.448 million in December
Employment- 160.640 million in November
Next data release February 6, 2026

Summary:

Despite Seasonally Adjusted BLS statements, if we look at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report, Total Employed decreased in December, but Unadjusted and Adjusted Unemployment also decreased. Labor Force Participation was also down slightly.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Both total nonfarm payroll employment (+50,000) and the unemployment rate (4.4 percent) changed little in December, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in food services and drinking places, health care, and social assistance. Retail trade lost jobs…

Since reaching a peak in January, federal government employment is down by 277,000, or 9.2 percent. (Employees on paid leave or receiving ongoing severance pay are counted as employed in the establishment survey.)… Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.8 percent. “

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally, the BLS reported employment of 160.652 million for November,
which they adjusted slightly to 160.640 million jobs for November.

They are currently reporting 160.448 million jobs for December, which is actually a decrease of -204,000 jobs based on their original numbers.

The LFPR was down from 62.5% in November to 62.4% in December. [Read more…] about Unemployment Report for December 2025

August 2025 Employment Situation

September 6, 2025 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for August on September 5^th,2025.

Employment / Unemployment

Seasonally Adjusted U3- 4.3% Up from 4.2%
Unadjusted U3- 4.5% Down from 4.6% in July
Unadjusted U6- 8.2% Down from 8.3% in July
Labor Force Participation Rate- 62.3% Up from 62.2%
Employment- 159.410 million Up from 159.210 million
Next data release October 3, 2025

Summary:

Total Employed increased in August, Unadjusted Unemployment was down, but Seasonally adjusted Unemployment increased.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment changed little in August (+22,000) and has shown little change since April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported today. The unemployment rate, at 4.3 percent, also changed little in August. A job gain in health care was partially offset by losses in federal government and in mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction…

Federal government employment continued to decline in August (-15,000) and is down by 97,000 since reaching a peak in January. (Employees on paid leave or receiving ongoing severance pay are counted as employed in the establishment survey.)”

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report, we see…
Originally, the BLS reported employment of 159.227 million jobs for July,
which they adjusted slightly to 159.210 million in September.

They are currently reporting 159.410 million jobs for August, which is an increase of 200,000 jobs based on their new numbers or 183,000 based on their original numbers. The LFPR increased from 62.2% to 62.3%.

Current Unemployment Rate Chart

Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment is up from 4.2% to 4.3%. As we can see, unemployment is 0.9% above the January and April lows of 2023 but relatively unchanged over the last year.

BLS Data Controversy

August 8, 2025 by Tim McMahon

Over the years, I have frequently mentioned the ongoing data revisions of the employment numbers. So much so, that we maintain a list of the originally published employment numbers and the currently published numbers. We also highlight the change every month in our eTrends Newsletter (See Subscription box on Right) when the BLS releases its new numbers.

Last year, the BLS OVERESTIMATED employment in November and December 2024 by more than 1/2 million each month, i.e., 515,000 in December and 678,000 in November. But that was after declaring in February that they were overestimating employment by roughly that amount every month.

Data Fudging or Legit Revision?

Throughout 2023 and 2024, the BLS consistently published high employment numbers. But then, a couple of months later, when no one was paying much attention, they would adjust the numbers down by roughly half a million. [Read more…] about BLS Data Controversy

Early Warning Signs of a Weakening Economy in July 2025

August 2, 2025 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for July on August 1^st,2025.

Employment / Unemployment

Seasonally Adjusted U3- 4.2% Up from 4.1%
Unadjusted U3- 4.6% Up from 4.4% in June
Unadjusted U6- 8.3% Up from 8.1% in June
Labor Force Participation Rate- 62.2% Down from 62.3%
Employment- 159.227 million Down from 160.293 million
Next data release September 5, 2025

Summary:

Total Employed decreased in July, Unadjusted Unemployment was up, as was Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment. There are a few early warning signs of a slowing Labor Market.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment changed little in July (+73,000) and has shown little change since April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported today. The unemployment rate, at 4.2 percent, also changed little in July. Employment continued to trend up in health care and in social assistance. Federal government continued to lose jobs…

Federal government employment continued to decline in July (-12,000) and is down by 84,000 since reaching a peak in January. (Employees on paid leave or receiving ongoing severance pay are counted as employed in the establishment survey.)”

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report, we see…
Originally, the BLS reported employment of 160.475 million for June,
which they adjusted down to 160.293 million as of this month.

They are currently reporting 159.227 million jobs for July, which is actually a monthly decrease of 1,248,000 jobs based on their original numbers or 1,066,000 based on their new numbers.

Early Warning Signs of a Weakening Economy

Although the U3 Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment rate is only up 1/10^th of a percent, and the BLS Commissioner tried to put an optimistic spin on it, the number of job openings in the U.S. fell by 275,000 to around 7.4 million last month. So, hiring is slacking off.

Unadjusted Establishment Survey jobs are down by 1,248,000 jobs based on their original June numbers.

The LFPR is down from 62.3% to 62.2%, back to November 2022 levels.

Also, the “Starbucks Indicator” created by Stansberry’s Credit Opportunities editor Mike DiBiase, which says that when Starbucks sales decline for several quarters in a row, the economy is weakening. And that’s exactly what we’re seeing today. Earlier this week, Starbucks reported same-store sales fell 2%. That marked the sixth straight quarter of falling same-store sales.

And, as the Commissioner said, since Government employees scheduled for downsizing are still being paid, they aren’t being counted as unemployed yet, but when their severance pay runs out, that will spike the unemployment rate.

We may be seeing the beginning of an upturn in unemployment in the longer durations, i.e., it is starting to take longer to find a job, 24.9% of those unemployed have been unemployed for 27 weeks or longer.

And finally, looking at the Employment / Population by Race, we see a declining trend in the Employment of Blacks (i.e., the most vulnerable segment of the population). In the chart below, we can see that it has steadily declined for almost two years now. But it sharply declined this month.On the plus side,

ADP’s Chief Economist says, “Employers have grown more optimistic”.

Weakening jobs numbers could force Powell to lower interest rates.

The exodus of illegals should open up more jobs for Americans. According to the WSJ, since mid‑2024, over 1.6 million foreign-born workers have left the U.S. labor force. During the same period, U.S.-born workers added roughly 2.5 million jobs, suggesting a shift toward domestic labor filling openings formerly held by immigrants. One Example: After ICE removes illegal workers, job applicants flood meatpacking plant to replace them.

Also, Trump is negotiating Billions in increased manufacturing investment in the U.S., so in the longer run, jobs should increase, but in the meantime, we may be in for a bit of a rough patch.

Despite these early signs of weakening, FED Chairman Powell didn’t reduce rates at Wednesday’s meeting, citing concerns of rising inflation. But, the market has noted the signs of weakness, and the Futures market has increased the odds of a rate cut in September, from 38% on Wednesday to 85% after Friday’s jobs report.

Current Unemployment Rate Chart

Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment is up from 4.1% to 4.2%. As we can see, unemployment is 0.8% above the January and April lows of 2023 but relatively unchanged over the last year.

June Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Down

July 4, 2025 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for June on July 3^rd,2025.

Employment / Unemployment

Seasonally Adjusted U3- 4.1% Down from 4.2%
Unadjusted U3- 4.4% Up from 4.0% in May
Unadjusted U6- 8.1% Up from 7.4% in May
Labor Force Participation Rate- 62.3% Down from 62.4%
Employment- 160.475 million Up from 159.958 million
Next data release August 1, 2025

Summary:

Total Employed increased in June, Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment was down, but Unadjusted Unemployment increased. Economists were predicting a bad report, but a superficial look makes this appear to be a good report. This shocked the legacy media, thinking that it turned out better than expected. But a deeper look shows cracks appearing. Wages pretty much across the board fell, with average weekly earnings down slightly. And U6 unadjusted unemployment went up from 7.4% to 8.1% and U3 unadjusted unemployment went up from 4.0% to 4.4%. Typically, June unemployment increases due to students entering the workforce, but…

According to ADP the economy lost -33,000 jobs…

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 147,000 in June, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in state government and health care. Federal government continued to lose jobs…

Both the unemployment rate, at 4.1 percent, and the number of unemployed people, at 7.0 million, changed little in June. The unemployment rate has remained in a narrow range of 4.0 percent to 4.2 percent since May 2024…”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 159.964 million for May
which they adjusted slightly to 159.958 million in July.

They are currently reporting 160.475 million jobs for June which is actually an increase of 511,000 jobs based on their original numbers or 517,000 based on their new May numbers. The LFPR decreased from 62.4% to 62.3%.

Current Unemployment Rate Chart

As we can see, unemployment is 0.6% above pre-COVID lows of 2019 and the January and April lows of 2023.

May Employment Nothing Burger

June 6, 2025 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for May on June 6^th,2025.

Employment / Unemployment

Seasonally Adjusted U3- 4.2% Unchanged
Unadjusted U3- 4.0% Up from 3.9% in April
Unadjusted U6- 7.4% Up from 7.3% in April
Labor Force Participation Rate- 62.4% Down from 62.6%
Employment- 159.964 million Up from 159.238 million
Next data release July 3^rd, 2025

Summary:

Although Total Employed increased slightly in May, and Unadjusted Unemployment was up slightly, Seasonally adjusted Unemployment stayed exactly the same indicating that although unemployment increased it was typical for the month of May. And unemployment has been in a narrow range for an entire year.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 139,000 in May, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in health care, leisure and hospitality, and social assistance. Federal government continued to lose jobs…

The unemployment rate held at 4.2 percent in May and has remained in a narrow range of 4.0 percent to 4.2 percent since May 2024. The number of unemployed people, at 7.2 million, changed little over the month…

In May, the employment-population ratio declined by 0.3 percentage point to 59.7 percent. The labor force participation rate decreased by 0.2 percentage point to 62.4 percent.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 159.316 million for April
which they adjusted slightly to 159.238 million in June.

They are currently reporting 159.964 million jobs for May which is actually an increase of +648,000 jobs based on their original numbers or +726,000 jobs based on their new adjusted numbers. The LFPR was lower at 62.4%.

Current Unemployment Rate Chart

As we can see, unemployment is 0.7% above pre-COVID lows of 2019 and 0.8% above the January and April lows of 2023.