Employment

Why February 2026’s Jobs Report Was an Anomaly, Not a Trend

April 6, 2026 by Tim McMahon

Image created by Bing AI

When the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the February 2026 employment report, the headline number sent a jolt through financial markets: nonfarm payrolls had dropped by 92,000, a dramatic reversal from January’s solid gain. Economists and commentators rushed to declare the labor market was cracking. They were wrong — or at least, they were telling the wrong story.

February was a perfect storm of one-time disruptions stacking on top of each other. When you look closer, the underlying labor market looks nothing like the headline number suggests.

January Was Stronger Than It First Appeared

Let’s start with the baseline. The original January payroll figure of +126,000 was subsequently revised upward by 34,000 to +160,000. That’s a meaningfully strong month, representing solid underlying demand for workers. The February weakness has to be understood against that backdrop, not against a weaker starting point. [Read more…] about Why February 2026’s Jobs Report Was an Anomaly, Not a Trend

No BLS Employment Data for October 2025 But ADP Says 42K New Jobs

November 7, 2025 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data regarding the Unemployment situation in October was not released on November 7^th as scheduled due to the continuing Federal Government shutdown.

Although AI automation is improving company profitability, it is also reducing the need for lower-level employees as Senior employees become more productive by using AI. This is squeezing younger employees. Back in May, Microsoft announced it would cut nearly 4% of its workforce, particularly in sales (~6,000 jobs), as it realigns around heavy AI investments. Reuters

Not all the news is bad…

Amazon will cut about 14,000 corporate jobs as the online retail giant ramps up spending on artificial intelligence while cutting costs elsewhere… However, simultaneously, it is hiring 250,000 seasonal workers, the same as last year’s holiday season. AP News

“In 2023, IBM made headlines with the announcement of nearly 8,000 layoffs, primarily from support roles such as Human Resources. The goal? To replace these workers with artificial intelligence (AI), automating repetitive tasks and increasing efficiency. However, just months later, the company found itself doing something it hadn’t anticipated: rehiring many of those workers… despite these significant savings, IBM’s workforce actually grew after the layoffs. Arvind Krishna, the CEO, explained to the Wall Street Journal that while AI had helped streamline operations, it also allowed the company to reinvest in other areas. Rather than eliminating jobs permanently, IBM found that the freed-up resources were being directed towards higher-value roles.” GlassAlmanac

Meta Platforms is cutting roughly 600 artificial intelligence jobs… even as it continues to hire more workers for its superintelligence lab. Intellizence

Interestingly, more than half of the companies that perform layoffs citing automation/AI now say they regret the decision. TechRepublic+1

So, although AI reducing jobs is creating headlines, the truth may be entirely different. Throughout history, ever since the Luddite Weavers in the early 1800s, workers have feared the loss of jobs due to technological advances. But the truth is that after the initial displacements, technology has created more (and higher-paying) jobs than it has destroyed. Of course, the displaced workers suffer initially and retraining is often required. But those able to adapt to the changes are often better off in the end, while those unable to adapt suffer.

Many years ago, I said, “The only thing constant in life is change. Those who adapt quickest thrive, those who adapt slowly survive, those who don’t adapt at all are relegated to the lowest levels of existence, poverty, and misery. The key to success is to adapt quickly… it will put you at the head of the pack.” – Tim McMahon

Based on the alternative data from ADP we see: [Read more…] about No BLS Employment Data for October 2025 But ADP Says 42K New Jobs

Blue-Collar Wages Surge in 2025

June 17, 2025 by Tim McMahon

According to recent data from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, in the first five months of President Donald Trump’s second term, blue-collar workers have experienced the strongest early-term wage gains for working-class Americans under any U.S. president in nearly 60 years. The 1.7% real (i.e., inflation-adjusted) wage increase sharply contrasts with negative growth under most Presidents.

Since President Richard Nixon took office in 1969, no other president has matched this level of early-term wage growth for non-supervisory and production workers. Nixon’s comparable figure stood at just 0.8% during his initial months in office. Trump’s latest achievement builds upon his previous track record; in his first term, blue-collar wages grew by 1.3% in the same period, already a strong showing, but now surpassed. [Read more…] about Blue-Collar Wages Surge in 2025

Does Raising The Minimum Wage Make A Substantial Difference?

June 16, 2025 by Tim McMahon

Minimum wage increases seem to be a “hot-button” topic for many people. On the surface, it seems obvious—if we raise the minimum wage, workers will earn more and be better off. But, economics is rarely that simple, and in the real-world consequences often tell a more complicated story.

Productivity, Not Policy, Drives Wage Growth

To begin, we need to understand a fundamental economic truth: wages are ultimately tied to productivity, not legislation. Governments can set legal minimums, but unless a worker produces enough value to justify that wage, forcing businesses to pay more becomes unsustainable. Sustainable wage growth only occurs when individuals generate more value for their employers, whether that’s through skills, efficiency, or technology.

What Happens When Minimum Wages Go Up?

Raising the minimum wage might sound compassionate, but businesses don’t exist to pay more than necessary for labor. When mandated wages rise, businesses react, and not always in ways that benefit workers.

They have a few options:

Cut jobs or hours
Automate roles (think kiosks replacing cashiers)
Outsource or offshore tasks
Close or relocate altogether

A striking example came in 2024 when California implemented a $20/hour minimum wage for certain fast-food workers. The result? Over 10,000 jobs disappeared almost immediately. More than 1,500 restaurants shut down or moved operations to lower-cost states. Far from helping workers, this policy left many unemployed or underemployed, and some businesses simply vanished. [Read more…] about Does Raising The Minimum Wage Make A Substantial Difference?

Have Wages Kept Up With Inflation?

September 23, 2024 by Tim McMahon

One of the most important questions regarding your income is whether your wages have kept up with inflation. You might be getting nice yearly raises, but if inflation is growing faster, you are still falling behind. So, in order for your purchasing power to increase or at least stay the same it is important to look at Inflation-Adjusted wages.

If you ask your neighbors, they will almost certainly say that the average wage hasn’t kept up with inflation. And since “bad news sells” even the media tends to try to convince us that the average wage hasn’t kept up with inflation. But what do the actual numbers say?

If we look at the numbers presented by the Federal Reserve CES0500000003 index (Average Hourly Earnings of All Employees) we get the following chart. And it looks pretty good, wages are going up fairly steadily. But is inflation going up faster? We really can’t tell.

Inflation-Adjusted Hourly Wages

So to get the true picture we have to adjust it by the Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) and then we get the following chart: [Read more…] about Have Wages Kept Up With Inflation?

Opportunities You Can Find With a CDL License

July 15, 2024 by Tim McMahon

Deciding to obtain a Commercial Driver’s License (CDL) can unlock a variety of career paths in the transportation industry. From long-haul trucking to local delivery, each role offers its own unique set of opportunities and demands. Whether driving across the country or staying within city limits, CDL holders can find fulfilling jobs that suit different lifestyles and preferences. Understanding the different opportunities available with a CDL can help you make an informed decision about which path might be right for you.

Long-Haul Truck Driver

Long-haul truck drivers are essential to the transportation industry, delivering goods across vast distances. These professionals typically drive heavy-duty trucks and spend several days or even weeks on the road giving you the opportunity to see a lot of the country. A key aspect of this career is the ability to navigate various terrains and weather conditions while adhering to strict delivery schedules. Long-haul drivers often experience the independence of solitary travel but must also manage tasks such as logging hours and maintaining their vehicles. Employers often look for reliability, a clean driving record, and the ability to manage extended periods away from home.

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Heavy and Tractor-trailer Truck Drivers earned $54,320 per year or $26.12 per hour in 2023. Heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers usually have a high school diploma and attend a professional truck driving school. They must have a commercial driver’s license (CDL). [Read more…] about Opportunities You Can Find With a CDL License

June Employment Weak

July 6, 2024 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for June on July 5^th,2024.

Employment / Unemployment

Seasonally Adjusted U3- 4.1% up from 4.0% in May
Unadjusted U3- 4.3% up from 3.7% in May
Unadjusted U6- 7.7% up from 7.1% in May
Labor Force Participation Rate 62.6% up from 62.5%
Employment 159.392 million up from 158.845 million
Next data release August 2^nd, 2024

Summary:
Total Employed increased in June, Unadjusted Unemployment was up sharply, but Seasonally adjusted Unemployment increased only slightly.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 206,000 in June, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in government, health care, social assistance, and construction…

Both the unemployment rate, at 4.1 percent, and the number of unemployed people, at 6.8 million, changed little in June. These measures are higher than a year earlier, when the jobless rate was 3.6 percent and the number of unemployed people was 6.0 million.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 158.918 million for May
which they now adjusted to 158.845 million.

They are currently reporting 159.392 million jobs for June which is actually an increase of 474,000 jobs compare to what they first reported or 547,000 compared to their new numbers.

The LFPR was up from 62.5% to 62.6%.

Good News for the Market?

In the perverse stock market of these post-pandemic days, the market is looking for an excuse for the FED to cut interest rates so “Bad News is Good News” for the market.

The news wasn’t bad enough to spark a major rally but after falling initially, at around 10:30 AM the market turned around and rallied for the rest of the day taking it to slightly above the previous day’s close. So basically a giant “nothing burger”.

Current Unemployment Rate Chart

Seasonally Adjusted U3 Unemployment remains above the pre-COVID 2019 cyclical lows of 3.5%, but is approaching the yellow zone.

[Read more…] about June Employment Weak

Why Consumer Sentiment Fell To A Seven-Month Low

June 25, 2024 by Daniel Lacalle

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey plummeted to its lowest level in seven months. The index reading for June came in at 65.6, down from 69.1 in May and under the consensus expectation of 72. In the current conditions and expectations categories, the survey fell below economists’ expectations.

Year-ahead inflation expectations were unchanged this month at 3.3%, but above the 2.3–3.0% range seen in the two years prior to the pandemic, according to the press release. Long-run inflation expectations rose from 3.0% last month to 3.1% in June, significantly above the 2.2-2.6% range seen in the two years pre-pandemic. This survey indicates how weak the U.S. economy is and how consumers are feeling the persistent inflation.

Joe Biden posted on X “Zero. That was monthly inflation in May. There is more to do still, but this is welcome progress.” Inflation was 3.3% in May, and services, shelter, and electricity increased by 5.3%, 5.4%, and 5.9%, respectively. A zero increase in June in the CPI reading is not zero inflation in the month. Consumers in America may find these optimistic messages exaggerated and almost propagandistic. Furthermore, CPI inflation should have been significantly lower, close to 2%, months ago. Is it welcome progress, as the president says? Not really. However, the underlying message of the X post is probably closer to “it could have been worse.”. [Read more…] about Why Consumer Sentiment Fell To A Seven-Month Low

How To Excel As An Electric Vehicle Technician

June 18, 2024 by Tim McMahon

The demand for skilled electric vehicle technicians is surging, with the automotive industry rapidly transitioning towards electric vehicles (EVs). Today we explore the essential skills required to excel in this field and the training options available to aspiring EV technicians. By understanding the necessary competencies and choosing the right training path, you can set yourself up for a promising career in EV maintenance and repair.

The Rise of Electric Vehicles (EVs) and the Need for Skilled Technicians

The global shift towards sustainable energy has significantly accelerated the adoption of electric vehicles. Governments and consumers alike are increasingly recognizing the environmental and economic benefits of EVs, leading to a growing number of electric vehicles on the road. With this rise comes an urgent need for skilled technicians who can maintain and repair these advanced machines. Technicians with specialized knowledge of EV technology are essential to ensuring the longevity and efficiency of electric vehicle fleets.

Essential Skills for EV Technicians

Understanding EV Technology

One of the most fundamental skills for an EV technician is a thorough understanding of electric vehicle technology. This includes knowledge of how electric motors work, the functionality of battery systems, and the integration of various electronic components. A solid grasp of EV technology forms the foundation for all other skills.

Proficiency in Electrical Systems

Electric vehicles rely heavily on sophisticated electrical systems. Thus, proficiency in electrical engineering principles is crucial. Technicians must be adept at working with high-voltage systems, diagnosing electrical faults, and implementing effective repairs. This requires a keen eye for detail and a systematic approach to problem-solving. [Read more…] about How To Excel As An Electric Vehicle Technician