employment

BLS Releases May 2026 Jobs Report

June 6, 2026 by Tim McMahon Leave a Comment

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its May
employment / unemployment report on June 5^th,2026.

Employment / Unemployment

Seasonally Adjusted U-3 is 4.3% Unchanged
Unadjusted U-3 is 4.1% up from 4.0%
Unadjusted U-6 is 7.7% Unchanged
Labor Force Participation is 61.8% Unchanged
Unadjusted Employment rose from 158.726 million to 159.467 million
Next Update: July 2^nd, 2026

Summary:
The jobs report came in much higher than expected, with an uncharacteristic adjustment upward for the previous month’s numbers (April). The biggest gainer was Leisure and hospitality, gaining 70,000 jobs. Job losses occurred in insurance carriers and related activities (-11,000) and commercial banking (-3,000).

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 172,000 in May, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, local government, and health care. Employment in financial activities declined…

The number of people jobless less than 5 weeks declined by 286,000 to 2.2 million in May, largely offsetting an increase in the prior month. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was little changed over the month at 2.0 million but is up by 524,000 over the year. The long-term unemployed accounted for 27.5 percent of all unemployed people in May.”

So, despite declines in Government employment, overall employment still increased.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally, the BLS reported employment of 158.695 million for April, which they have since adjusted upward to 158.726 million, an increase of 31,000. Current May numbers are 159.467 million for an increase of 741,000 jobs based on their current numbers or +772,000 based on the original numbers.

Note: According to Politifact, “The federal workforce grew by about 4.8% during Biden’s term, increasing from 2.89 million in January 2021 to 3.02 million in January 2025.”

So, Trump has reduced the federal payroll by more than twice what it gained under Biden. Although this does reduce budget pressure, it also puts pressure on the job market for those who are seeking other employment. It is estimated that between 30-40% of these workers retired, while perhaps 10-15% were working spouses who chose to stay home rather than seek other employment.

May Jobs Report for April 2026

May 9, 2026 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its April
employment / unemployment report on May 8^th,2026.

Employment / Unemployment

Seasonally Adjusted U-3 is 4.3% Unchanged
Unadjusted U-3 is 4.0% down from 4.3%
Unadjusted U-6 is 7.7% down from 8.0%
Labor Force Participation is 61.8% down from 61.9%
Unadjusted Employment rose from 157.769 million to 158.695 million
Next Update: June 5^th, 2026

Summary:
The jobs report came in higher than expected, with only a minor adjustment downward for the previous month’s numbers (March). The biggest gainer was Education and Health, gaining 46,000 jobs. The biggest loser was Information, with a loss of -13,000 jobs, and with only three sectors declining.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment edged up by 115,000 in April, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, transportation and warehousing, and retail trade… Federal government employment continued to decline in April (-9,000). Since reaching a peak in October 2024, federal government employment is down by 348,000, or 11.5 percent”.

So, despite declines in Government employment, overall employment still increased.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally, the BLS reported employment of 157.775 million for March, which they have now adjusted to 157.769 million. Current April numbers are 158.695 million for an increase of 926,000 jobs based on their current numbers or +920,000 based on the original numbers.

Note: According to Politifact, “The federal workforce grew by about 4.8% during Biden’s term, increasing from 2.89 million in January 2021 to 3.02 million in January 2025.”

Why February 2026’s Jobs Report Was an Anomaly, Not a Trend

April 6, 2026 by Tim McMahon

Image created by Bing AI

When the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the February 2026 employment report, the headline number sent a jolt through financial markets: nonfarm payrolls had dropped by 92,000, a dramatic reversal from January’s solid gain. Economists and commentators rushed to declare the labor market was cracking. They were wrong — or at least, they were telling the wrong story.

February was a perfect storm of one-time disruptions stacking on top of each other. When you look closer, the underlying labor market looks nothing like the headline number suggests.

January Was Stronger Than It First Appeared

Let’s start with the baseline. The original January payroll figure of +126,000 was subsequently revised upward by 34,000 to +160,000. That’s a meaningfully strong month, representing solid underlying demand for workers. The February weakness has to be understood against that backdrop, not against a weaker starting point. [Read more…] about Why February 2026’s Jobs Report Was an Anomaly, Not a Trend

April Employment Report for March 2026

April 4, 2026 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its March
employment / unemployment report on April 3^rd,2026.

Employment / Unemployment

Seasonally Adjusted U-3 is 4.3% down from 4.4%
Unadjusted U-3 is also 4.3% down from 4.7%
Unadjusted U-6 is 8.0% it was 8.3%
Labor Force Participation is 61.9% it was 62.0%
Unadjusted Employment rose from 157.204 million to 157.775 million
Next Update: May 8^th, 2026

Summary:
The BLS adjusted its February employment numbers downward by 82,000 this month, from 157.286 million to 157.204 million. But the March numbers are still up to 157.775 million. The Census numbers are also a bit unusual this month, in that the U.S. Census Population Clock said 343,369,720 last month, and now it says: 342,414,097. For a decrease of almost 956,000. Since the clock is just an automated estimate, the Census Bureau adjusts it annually to better reflect current population estimates.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 178,000 in March, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, in construction, and in transportation and warehousing. Federal government employment continued to decline.”

So, despite declines in Government employment, overall employment still increased.

Note: According to Politifact, “The federal workforce grew by about 4.8% during Biden’s term, increasing from 2.89 million in January 2021 to 3.02 million in January 2025.” According to the Economic Policy Institute, “Federal employment has declined by 352,000 jobs since January 2025.”

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally, the BLS reported employment of 156.714 million for January, which they adjusted slightly to 156.723 million in February and up again to 156.728 million this month.

They originally reported 157.286 million jobs for February, which they adjusted down to 157.204 million this month.

Current March numbers are 157.775 million for an increase of 571,000 jobs based on their current numbers or +489,000 based on the original numbers.

Unemployment Report for Nov. 2025

December 17, 2025 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its delayed employment / unemployment report for November
on December 16^th,2025.

Employment / Unemployment

Seasonally Adjusted U3- 4.6% Up from 4.4% in September
Unadjusted U3- 4.3% unchanged from September
Unadjusted U6- 8.4% Up from 7.7% in September
Labor Force Participation Rate- 62.5% Up from 62.4%
Employment- 160.411 million in October
Employment- 160.652 million in November
Next data release- January 9, 2026
October Unemployment Data not available due to gov’t shutdown

Summary:

Although unemployment information for October is not available Employmentdata was still collected. Total Employed increased in both October and November. Unadjusted Unemployment was 4.3% in both September and November, but Seasonally adjusted Unemployment increased in November.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment changed little in November (+64,000) and has shown little net change since April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. In November, the unemployment rate, at 4.6 percent, was little changed from September. Employment rose in health care and construction in November, while the federal government continued to lose jobs…

Federal government employment continued to decrease in November (-6,000). This follows a sharp decline of 162,000 in October, as some federal employees who accepted a deferred resignation offer came off federal payrolls. Federal government employment is down by 271,000 since reaching a peak in January. (Federal employees on furlough during the government shutdown were counted as employed in the establishment survey because they received pay, even if later than usual, for the pay period that included the 12th of the month. Employees on paid leave or receiving ongoing severance pay are counted as employed in the establishment survey.)”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report, we see…
Originally, the BLS reported employment of 159.732 million for September.
They are currently reporting 160.411 million jobs for October and 160.652 million for November, which is actually an increase of 241,000 jobs from October to November. The LFPR was up from 62.4% in September to 62.5% in November.

Current Unemployment Rate Chart

As we can see, unemployment is above pre-COVID lows of 2019 and the January and April lows of 2023.

May Employment Nothing Burger

June 6, 2025 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for May on June 6^th,2025.

Employment / Unemployment

Seasonally Adjusted U3- 4.2% Unchanged
Unadjusted U3- 4.0% Up from 3.9% in April
Unadjusted U6- 7.4% Up from 7.3% in April
Labor Force Participation Rate- 62.4% Down from 62.6%
Employment- 159.964 million Up from 159.238 million
Next data release July 3^rd, 2025

Summary:

Although Total Employed increased slightly in May, and Unadjusted Unemployment was up slightly, Seasonally adjusted Unemployment stayed exactly the same indicating that although unemployment increased it was typical for the month of May. And unemployment has been in a narrow range for an entire year.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 139,000 in May, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in health care, leisure and hospitality, and social assistance. Federal government continued to lose jobs…

The unemployment rate held at 4.2 percent in May and has remained in a narrow range of 4.0 percent to 4.2 percent since May 2024. The number of unemployed people, at 7.2 million, changed little over the month…

In May, the employment-population ratio declined by 0.3 percentage point to 59.7 percent. The labor force participation rate decreased by 0.2 percentage point to 62.4 percent.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 159.316 million for April
which they adjusted slightly to 159.238 million in June.

They are currently reporting 159.964 million jobs for May which is actually an increase of +648,000 jobs based on their original numbers or +726,000 jobs based on their new adjusted numbers. The LFPR was lower at 62.4%.

Current Unemployment Rate Chart

As we can see, unemployment is 0.7% above pre-COVID lows of 2019 and 0.8% above the January and April lows of 2023.

March 2025- Employment / Unemployment Report

April 5, 2025 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for March on April 4^th,2025.

Employment / Unemployment

Seasonally Adjusted U3- 4.2% Up from 4.1%
Unadjusted U3- 4.2% Down from 4.5% in February
Unadjusted U6- 7.9% Down from 8.4% in February
Labor Force Participation Rate- 62.5% Up from 62.4%
Employment- 158.506 million Up from 157.950 million
Next data release May 2^nd, 2025

Summary:

The total number of Employed increased in March, and Unadjusted Unemployment was down but Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment was up.

So although Unadjusted Unemployment fell sharply from 4.5% to 4.2% Adjusted Unemployment rose slightly from 4.1% to 4.2%.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 228,000 in March, higher than the average monthly gain of 158,000 over the prior 12 months. In March, job gains occurred in health care, in social assistance, and in transportation and warehousing.

Employment also increased in retail trade, partially reflecting the return of workers from a strike. Federal government employment declined.

Health care added 54,000 jobs in March, in line with the average monthly gain of 52,000 over the prior 12 months.

Retail trade added 24,000 jobs in March, as workers returning from a strike contributed to a job gain in food and beverage retailers (+21,000).

Employment in transportation and warehousing rose by 23,000 in March, about double the prior 12-month average gain of 12,000.

Within government, federal government employment declined by 4,000 in March, following a loss of 11,000 jobs in February. (Employees on paid leave or receiving ongoing severance pay are counted as employed in the establishment survey.)”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 157.983 million for February
which they adjusted slightly to 157.950 million.

They are currently reporting 158.506 million jobs for March which is actually an increase of 523,000 jobs based on their original numbers. The LFPR was up from 62.4% to 62.5%.

Current Unemployment Rate Chart

As the chart below shows, although unemployment is still low, it is above the lows of 2019 and 2023. At 4.2%, Seasonally Adjusted unemployment is still “Very Good” it is still lower than the lowest achieved in 2006-2007.

February 2025 Jobs Report

March 8, 2025 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for February on March 7^th,2025.

Employment / Unemployment

Seasonally Adjusted U3- 4.1% Up from 4.0%
Unadjusted U3- 4.5% Up from 4.4% in January
Unadjusted U6- 8.4% Up from 8.2% in January
Labor Force Participation Rate 62.4% Down from 62.6%
Employment 157.983 million Up from 157.092 million
Next data release April 4^th, 2025

Summary:
Total Employed increased in February, but Unadjusted Unemployment was up. Seasonally adjusted Unemployment also increased.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 151,000 in February, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment trended up in health care, financial activities, transportation and warehousing, and social assistance. Federal government employment declined…

Both the unemployment rate, at 4.1 percent, and the number of unemployed people, at 7.1 million, changed little in February. The unemployment rate has remained in a narrow range of 4.0 percent to 4.2 percent since May 2024…

In February, employment trended up in health care, financial activities, transportation and warehousing, and social assistance. Federal government employment declined.“

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 157.091 million jobs for January
which they just adjusted slightly to 157.092 million.

They are currently reporting 157.983 million jobs for February which is actually an increase of 892,000 jobs.

Despite the rise in employment, unemployment was also up, and the Labor Force participation rate was down.

The LFPR was down from 62.6% to 62.4%.

Current Unemployment Rate Chart

As the chart below shows, although unemployment is still low, it is above the lows of 2019 and 2023. At 4.1%, Seasonally Adjusted unemployment is still “Very Good”.

December 2024 Unemployment Report

January 11, 2025 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for December on January 10^th,2025.

Employment / Unemployment

Seasonally Adjusted U3- 4.1% Down from November
Unadjusted U3- 3.8% Down from November
Unadjusted U6- 7.4% Unchanged
Labor Force Participation Rate 62.5% Unchanged
Employment 160.458 million Down from 160.539 million
Next data release February 7^th, 2025

Summary:
Total Employed Decreased in December, Unadjusted Unemployment was unchanged, but Seasonally adjusted Unemployment decreased.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 256,000 in December, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment trended up in health care, government, and social assistance. Retail trade added jobs in December, following a job loss in November.

The unemployment rate changed little at 4.1 percent in December. After increasing earlier in the year, the unemployment rate has been either 4.1 percent or 4.2 percent for the past 7 months. The number of unemployed people, at 6.9 million, also changed little in December.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 160.560 million for November
which they adjusted to 160.539 million this month.

They are currently reporting 160.458 million jobs for December which is actually a decrease of -102,000 jobs based on their original numbers. Or -81,000 jobs based on their revised numbers.

The LFPR was unchanged at 62.5%.

Bad News or Good News?

Once again, the perverse nature of the stock market showed its ugly head. The market took the BLS report as good enough to generate fear that the FED won’t cut rates again soon. So, the NYSE lost 547.73 points or 2.8%. This brought the market back down to the lows of December 19, 2024.

Current Unemployment Rate Chart

As we can see from the chart below, although still low, unemployment has risen 0.7 percentage points since the lows of 2023. At 4.1%, unemployment is no longer in the “Excellent” range but still in the “Very Good” range.

October 2024 Employment / Unemployment Report

November 2, 2024 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for October on November 1^st,2024.

Employment / Unemployment

Seasonally Adjusted U3- 4.1% Unchanged from September
Unadjusted U3- 3.9% Unchanged from September
Unadjusted U6- 7.3% Unchanged from September
Labor Force Participation Rate 62.6% down from September
Employment 160.007 million up from 159.181 million
Next data release December 6^th, 2024

Summary:
Total Employed increased very slightly in October, Unadjusted Unemployment was unchanged, Seasonally adjusted Unemployment was unchanged. Virtually everything was unchanged except LFPR fell by 0.1%.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment was essentially unchanged in October (+12,000), and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in health care and government. Temporary help services lost jobs. Employment declined in manufacturing due to strike activity…

The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1 percent in October, and the number of unemployed people was little changed at 7.0 million. These measures are higher than a year earlier, when the jobless rate was 3.8 percent, and the number of unemployed people was 6.4 million.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

So, for the month little changed, but on a year-over-year basis the economy is worse with more unemployed people.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 159.177 million for September
which they adjusted slightly to 159.181 million in November.

They are currently reporting 160.007 million jobs for October which is actually an increase of 83,000 jobs over their initial numbers or 82,600 over their revised numbers. The LFPR was down slightly from 62.7% to 62.6%.

Bad News for the Market?

The stock market initially rallied but lost steam mid-day and ended up down for the day. As we said last month, “the market doesn’t like uncertainty so it is waiting for election results before making any major moves. Other uncertainty revolves around the Middle-East and Russia.” Despite a rally in-between, the NYSE is roughly at the same place it was on August 30^th.

Current Unemployment Rate Chart

As we can see from the chart below, although still low, unemployment is above pre-COVID lows of 2019 and 0.7% above the January and April lows of 2023.

Before the COVID-19 spike, February 2020’s 3.5% Seasonally Adjusted U-3 unemployment levels were excellent, i.e., just a hair above the 1969 lows of 3.4%. The only break below 3.4% was all the way back in 1953 (during the Korean War). The COVID worldwide spike took unemployment to unprecedented high levels, but then returned to the “excellent” range.

At 4.1% it is no longer “Excellent” but still in the “Very Good” range.