January Unemployment Almost “Record Setting”

January Unemployment almost record setting but not for the reason you might think.

On Friday February 2nd the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly employment survey results for the month of January. According to the BLS the Seasonally Adjusted U-3 Unemployment Rate for January is unchanged for the almost record setting 4th month in a row. That’s right from October through January the Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment rate has been 4.1%.  This is a very low level and we really don’t expect it to get too much lower but the interesting part is that the unadjusted U-3 was 3.9% from October through December (resulting in the adjusted rate being 4.1%) but then in January the unadjusted rate jumped to 4.5% (a 0.6% increase) and the adjusted U-3 remained the same at 4.1%. This is because typically January sees an uptick in unemployment as all the seasonal employees get laid-off. So we would expect some sort of uptick in unadjusted unemployment rate. But because the Seasonally Adjusted U3 was unchanged for the month the current increase in the unadjusted U-3 was actually no greater or less than normal.

December Retail Employment Down

According to the BLS Seasonally Adjusted U-3 was 4.1%. Unadjusted U-6 unemployment was 8.0% in December. This is significantly better than a year ago when December U-6 was 9.1%. But in real non-seasonally adjusted numbers we can see that retail employment actually decreased in December by 30,500 jobs possibly due to …

Manufacturing Jobs Soar Under Trump

It is interesting to note that although they didn’t mention Trump specifically, this month’s BLS Commissioner’s report used these exact words, “Since a recent low in November 2016, manufacturing employment has increased by 189,000.”

October Unemployment Rate Down Again

On Friday November 3rd the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly employment survey results for the month of October. According to the BLS, the current “Seasonally Adjusted” Unemployment Rate for October is 4.1% DOWN from 4.2% in September and 4.4% in August. Seasonally Adjusted U-3 unemployment was 4.8% in January and 4.9% a year ago (October 2016). The current “Unadjusted” rate is 3.9% down from 4.1% in September and 4.5% in August. Unadjusted U-3 was 5.1% in January and 4.7%  a year ago (October 2016).

September Unemployment Rate Down

On Friday October 6th the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly employment survey results for the month of September. Every month the BLS conducts two surveys one contacts a sampling of households and the other collects data from businesses. Then they massage some of the numbers to “Seasonally Adjust” them and release them to the media.

According to the BLS, the current “Seasonally Adjusted” Unemployment Rate for September (released October 6th) is 4.2% DOWN from 4.4% in September. The current “Unadjusted” rate is 4.1% down from 4.5% in August. Seasonal adjustment provides something like a moving average leveling out the bumps due to normal seasonal variations. See: Unadjusted vs. Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate for more information about Seasonal Adjustment.

May Employment and Unemployment Numbers

The U.S.Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the May unemployment numbers today. The BLS Commissioner says: Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 138,000 in May, but these are Seasonally Adjusted numbers. So since typically employment increases in May, what he is saying is that 138,000 more jobs than average were created. In unadjusted terms employment was 145.938 […]

Unemployment Down in March

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly Employment/Unemployment report for the month ending in March on April 7th. The widely publicized Seasonally Adjusted U-3 Unemployment rate was 4.5% down from 4.7% in February. While the broader U-6 unemployment rate that includes discouraged workers and other “marginally attached” individuals was 8.9% down from 9.5% in February.

The BLS’ Unadjusted U-3 was 4.6% in March down from 4.9% in February. The Gallup alternatives presented mixed results with Gallup’s Unadjusted U-3 at 5.7% up from 5.5% in February while Gallup’s version of the U-6 was unchanged at 13.7%.

New Unemployment Numbers- February

On Friday March 10th the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released their Employment and Unemployment numbers for February 2017. The media was making a big deal about these numbers because they represent the “First full month since Trump took office”.
The numbers turned out to be moderately “Bullish” although the Commissioner’s statement said, “Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 235,000 in February, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 4.7 percent. Employment gains occurred in construction, private educational services, manufacturing, health care, and mining.”
Now, I’m not complaining… gaining 235,000 jobs is certainly better than losing them but what’s the big deal? Well, first of all, the big deal is that

August Unemployment Numbers- 4.9%

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the Unemployment numbers for the month of August on Friday September 2nd. The commonly quoted Seasonally Adjusted U-3 Unemployment rate was 4.9% for the third month in a row. The unadjusted U-3 Unemployment rate was 5.0% and Gallup’s equivalent was 5.4% for a “mere” 0.4% difference.

The broader U-6 Unemployment rate (also unadjusted) which includes “discouraged workers”, “marginally attached workers” and Part time workers who want to work full-time was 9.7% in August while Gallup’s equivalent which they call the “Underemployment rate” was 3.4% higher at 13.1%. The civilian non-institutional population increased another 234,000 this month bringing it to 253,854,000.

BLS Releases October Employment Figures

According to the latest U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data release on November 6th the U-6 Unemployment Rate for October was 9.5%. The current “Seasonally Adjusted” U-3 Unemployment Rate for October is 5.0% down from September’s 5.1% The employment situation for the month of October 2015 was as follows: The number of Unadjusted jobs reported for October 2015 was 143.739 million. That was up from June’s previous peak of 142.836 million.