BLS

December Retail Employment Down

January 6, 2018 by Tim McMahon

On Friday January 5^th the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly employment survey results for the month of December. Many of the numbers remained unchanged from November which was also unchanged from October.

Unemployment

According to the BLS Seasonally Adjusted U-3 was 4.1% since October while Unadjusted U-3 was 3.9% for three months. Unadjusted U-6 unemployment which is a broader measure of Unemployment rose from 7.6% in October to 7.7% in November to 8.0% in December. This is still significantly better than a year ago when in November 2016 Unadjusted U-6 was 9% and December was 9.1%.

Typically January sees an uptick in unemployment as all the seasonal employees get laid-off. So we would expect some sort of uptick next month.

According to the BLS Commissioner’s report for this month:

“Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for teenagers declined to 13.6 percent in December, offsetting an increase in November. In December, the unemployment rates for adult men (3.8 percent), adult women (3.7 percent), Whites (3.7 percent), Blacks (6.8 percent), Asians (2.5 percent), and Hispanics (4.9 percent) showed little or no change.”

See: Current Unemployment Rate Chart for more info.

Employment

Back in October, employment was 147,952,000 in November it rose to 148,526,000 but then it fell slightly in December to 148,346,000 for a net loss from November to December of 180,000 jobs. The BLS Commissioner’s report however said, “Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 148,000 in December…” That is because he is talking about “Seasonally Adjusted” jobs. Meaning that although actual jobs are down, they are down by 148,000 less than average for this time of year.

See Current Employment Commentary and Historical Employment Commentary

Labor Force Participation Rate

You might be wondering if [Read more…] about December Retail Employment Down

Manufacturing Jobs Soar Under Trump

December 9, 2017 by Tim McMahon

On Friday December 8^th the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly employment survey results for the month of November.

According to the BLS the Unemployment for November is virtually unchanged from October to November on both an Unadjusted and Seasonally Adjusted basis. Seasonally Adjusted U-3 was 4.1% for both months while Unadjusted U-3 was 3.9% for both months. Unadjusted U-6 unemployment which is a broader measure of Unemployment rose slightly from 7.6% in October to 7.7% in November. This is still significantly better than a year ago when in November 2016 Unadjusted U-6 was 9%.

Unemployment

Over the last month, the actual number of people working has increased by 532,000 and the civilian non-institutional population (a fairly narrow measurement of population) has increased by a very low 183,000.

This means that not only has the increase in jobs kept up with the increase in the population but it was actually almost 3 times greater than the population growth! And since only about half of the population is working, job growth has far exceeded the level needed to keep things on a steady keel. See: Current Unemployment Rate Chart for more info.

Employment

Employment was 147,975,000 in October (148,006,000 when the numbers were originally released in November) and the current numbers for employment are 148,507,000 in November for a net gain of 501,000 over the original October numbers or 532,000 increase over the new October numbers.

See Employment Commentary.

Although unemployment rates are virtually unchanged the Employment numbers tell a slightly different story. According to [Read more…] about Manufacturing Jobs Soar Under Trump

October Unemployment Rate Down Again

November 4, 2017 by Tim McMahon

On Friday November 3^rd the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly employment survey results for the month of October.

According to the BLS, the current “Seasonally Adjusted” Unemployment Rate for October is 4.1% DOWN from 4.2% in September and 4.4% in August. Seasonally Adjusted U-3 unemployment was 4.8% in January and 4.9% a year ago (October 2016).

The current “Unadjusted” rate is 3.9% down from 4.1% in September and 4.5% in August. Unadjusted U-3 was 5.1% in January and 4.7% a year ago (October 2016).

See: Current Unemployment Rate Chart for more info.

Seasonal adjustment provides something like a moving average leveling out the bumps due to normal seasonal variations. See: Unadjusted vs. Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate for more information about Seasonal Adjustment.

According to the BLS Commissioner’s report for this month:

September Unemployment Rate Down

October 7, 2017 by Tim McMahon

On Friday October 6^th the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly employment survey results for the month of September. Every month the BLS conducts two surveys one contacts a sampling of households and the other collects data from businesses. Then they massage some of the numbers to “Seasonally Adjust” them and release them to the media.

According to the BLS, the current “Seasonally Adjusted” Unemployment Rate for September (released October 6^th) is 4.2% DOWN from 4.4% in August. The current “Unadjusted” rate is 4.1% down from 4.5% in August.

According to the BLS Commissioner’s report for this month:

“The unemployment rate declined to 4.2 percent in September, and total nonfarm payroll employment changed little (-33,000), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. A sharp employment decline in food services and drinking places and below-trend growth in some other industries likely reflected the impact of Hurricanes Irma and Harvey. “

See: Current Unemployment Rate Chart for more info.

In the very next paragraph, based on the Household Unemployment Survey, he said, “The unemployment rate decreased by 0.2 percentage point to 4.2 percent in September, and the number of unemployed persons declined by 331,000 to 6.8 million. Both measures were down over the year.”

Declining unemployment means more jobs! So which is it 331,000 more jobs? -33,000 fewer jobs? Or 340,000 more jobs? [Read more…] about September Unemployment Rate Down

May Employment and Unemployment Numbers

June 2, 2017 by Tim McMahon

The U.S.Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the May unemployment numbers today. The BLS Commissioner says: Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 138,000 in May, but these are Seasonally Adjusted numbers. So since typically employment increases in May, what he is saying is that 138,000 more jobs than average were created. In unadjusted terms employment was 145.938 million in April and 146.748 in May for a net gain of 810,000 jobs. Adjusted U-3 Unemployment was 4.3% down from 4.4% in April. Unadjusted U-3 Unemployment was 4.1% unchanged from April.

Gallup Unadjusted U-3 was 5.2% down from 5.4% in April. Gallup’s unadjusted U-6 Unemployment was 8.1% unchanged from April. Gallup’s U-6 was 13.8% Down from 14.0% in April.

May Employment Gain and Loss Bubbles

In the following chart from the BLS we can see [Read more…] about May Employment and Unemployment Numbers

Unemployment Down in March

April 8, 2017 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly Employment/Unemployment report for the month ending in March on April 7^th. The widely publicized Seasonally Adjusted U-3 Unemployment rate was 4.5% down from 4.7% in February. While the broader U-6 unemployment rate that includes discouraged workers and other “marginally attached” individuals was 8.9% down from 9.5% in February.

The BLS’ Unadjusted U-3 was 4.6% in March down from 4.9% in February. The Gallup alternatives presented mixed results with Gallup’s Unadjusted U-3 at 5.7% up from 5.5% in February while Gallup’s version of the U-6 was unchanged at 13.7%.

The BLS Commissioner’s statement said, “The unemployment rate declined by 0.2 percentage point to 4.5 percent in March. Nonfarm payroll employment edged up by 98,000, following gains in January (+216,000) and February (+219,000). In March, job gains occurred in professional and business services and in mining, while retail employment declined.”

In the above chart we can see [Read more…] about Unemployment Down in March

New Unemployment Numbers- February

March 13, 2017 by Tim McMahon

On Friday March 10^th the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released their Employment and Unemployment numbers for February 2017. The media was making a big deal about these numbers because they represent the “First full month since Trump took office”.

The numbers turned out to be moderately “Bullish” although the Commissioner’s statement said, “Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 235,000 in February, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 4.7 percent. Employment gains occurred in construction, private educational services, manufacturing, health care, and mining.”

Now, I’m not complaining… gaining 235,000 jobs is certainly better than losing them but what’s the big deal? Well, first of all, the big deal is that [Read more…] about New Unemployment Numbers- February

August Unemployment Numbers- 4.9%

September 2, 2016 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the Unemployment numbers for the month of August on Friday September 2^nd. The commonly quoted Seasonally Adjusted U-3 Unemployment rate was 4.9% for the third month in a row. The unadjusted U-3 Unemployment rate was 5.0% and Gallup’s equivalent was 5.4% for a “mere” 0.4% difference.

The broader U-6 Unemployment rate (also unadjusted) which includes “discouraged workers”, “marginally attached workers” and Part time workers who want to work full-time was 9.7% in August while Gallup’s equivalent which they call the “Underemployment rate” was 3.4% higher at 13.1%. The civilian non-institutional population increased another 234,000 this month bringing it to 253,854,000.

According to the BLS Commissioner’s report for this month:

“Nonfarm payroll employment increased by [seasonally adjusted~ editor] 151,000 in August, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.9 percent. Employment continued to trend up in several service-providing industries. Incorporating revisions for June and July, which reduced nonfarm payroll employment by 1,000 on net, monthly job gains have averaged 232,000 over the past 3 months. In the 12 months prior to August, employment growth averaged 204,000 per month. Employment in food services and drinking places continued to trend up in August (+34,000). Over the year, the industry has added 312,000 jobs… Mining employment continued on a downward trend in August (-4,000). Although job losses have moderated in the last 3 months, employment in mining has fallen by 223,000 since a peak in September 2014.”

In other words, the vast majority of the jobs [Read more…] about August Unemployment Numbers- 4.9%

February Unemployment Flat

March 5, 2016 by Tim McMahon

February Unemployment Rate (Seasonally Adjusted)

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their employment data for February on Friday March 4^th 2016. The commonly used seasonally adjusted U-3 Unemployment Rate was 4.9% identical to January. The BLS promotes the Seasonally Adjusted U-3 Unemployment Rate as the primary measure of unemployment. But often when we look at the adjusted Unemployment rate it is moving in the opposite direction as the unadjusted Unemployment rate. For more information see our Seasonally Adjusted vs. Unadjusted Unemployment Rate Chart.

Unadjusted Unemployment Rate and Actual Number Employed

The Un-Adjusted Unemployment Rate was down slightly from 5.3% in January to 5.2% in February. As far as actual Employment, the number of Unadjusted jobs reported for February was 142.005 million up from 141.155 million in January. [Read more…] about February Unemployment Flat

BLS Releases October Employment Figures

November 6, 2015 by Tim McMahon

Current Unemployment Rate Chart

According to the latest U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data release on November 6th the current “Seasonally Adjusted” Unemployment Rate for October is 5.0% down from September’s 5.1% which was down significantly from last October’s 5.8%. The “Unadjusted” rate is 4.8% down from 5.6% in July and much lower than January’s 6.1%. See: Current Chart

According to the BLS, the U-6 Unemployment Rate for October was 9.5%. U-6 unemployment includes short-term discouraged workers who have given up looking for work because they feel there is no work available for them.

However, since 2010, Gallup (the survey/Pollsters) have been doing their own employment survey using basically the same parameters as the BLS and they conclude that the current U-6 (which they call the “UnderEmployment Rate) is actually 13.8% down from 14.1% in September.

According to John William’s Shadowstats the government began underestimating unemployment back in 1994 when they changed the way unemployment was calculated since “long-term discouraged workers were defined out of official existence”. The new U-6 numbers only include short-term discouraged workers. The following chart shows their calculations for Unemployment based on their estimates of what it would be if unemployment was calculated the pre-1994 way.

Current Employment Data

According to the current Bureau of Labor Statistics data, the employment situation for the month of October 2015 was as follows: The number of Unadjusted jobs reported for October 2015 was 143.739 million. That was up from June’s previous peak of 142.836 million.

For more information see: Current Employment Data

Current Employment vs Unemployment Chart

When looking at employment vs. unemployment you would think that they would simply be the inverse of each other. Flip one over and you have the other. But the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) actually uses two entirely different surveys to calculate them. So by comparing them we can spot irregularities. See Employment vs. Unemployment for more information.

Historical Employment Data

In this chart we can see the historical employment figures from 1939 through the present. But in addition to the number of jobs we can also see the recessions shaded blue.

See: Historical Employment Levels for more information.

The misery index combines two factors that can make life difficult for people i.e. unemployment and inflation. High levels of price inflation (rapidly rising prices) will cause households to have difficulty affording the basic necessities while high unemployment will leave a high percentage of households without any income at all.

See: InflationData’s Misery Index.

Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate

The U-3 Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate is the standard unemployment rate that the government prefers to use since it presents a much rosier picture than the U-6. Go here if you would like to see the “Unemployment Rate” in table form.

Unadjusted vs. Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate

Although the Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate is often quoted by the main stream media (MSM) people often wonder how much fudging goes on in the adjustment process. In this chart you can see how the Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate compares with the Unadjusted rate.

Although it doesn’t appear that there is much “fudging” going on with the Seasonal adjustments that doesn’t mean the numbers are without problems. See Is the Government Fudging the Unemployment numbers for some alternative ways to get a better picture of the employment situation.

See Also:

What is U-6 Unemployment for more information about the different definitions of unemployment.
Current U-6 Unemployment Rate
What is the Real Unemployment Rate?