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The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its
September employment / unemployment report on October 2nd, 2026.
[Read more…] about September 2026 BLS Education Employment Surprise
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its August employment / unemployment report on September 4th, 2026.
Summary:
The Adjusted U-3 was unchanged for the month, but UNADJUSTED Employment was Down slightly.
According to the BLS Commissioner’s report:
“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 162,000 in August, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in food services and drinking places and in local government education. The information industry lost jobs…
…education added 42,000 jobs in August, largely offsetting a decrease in the prior month… employment in manufacturing continued its upward trend (+16,000)… The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for June was revised up by 11,000, from +20,000 to +31,000, and the change for July was revised up by 44,000, from -23,000 to +21,000. With these revisions, employment in June and July combined is 55,000 higher than previously reported.“
As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.
Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report, we see…
The BLS is currently reporting a rise from 158.726 million to 158.880 million, or 157,000. But last month they reported employment was 158.649 million, so it actually rose from 158.649 to 158.880 million, or 231,000.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its July
employment / unemployment report on August 7th, 2026.
Summary:
Despite the Adjusted U-3 Unemployment Rate being DOWN, this report is weaker than the headline unemployment rate suggests. Although the decline in unemployment looks encouraging at first glance, but actual employment (not the employment percentage rate) is down by -1. 18 million based on the original reported numbers or -1.099 million based on current numbers.
According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:
“Both total nonfarm payroll employment (-23,000) and the unemployment rate (4.1 percent) changed little in July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in health care. …
… In July, the number of people jobless less than 5 weeks edged down to 2.0 million and is down by 344,000 over the year. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) edged down over the month to 1.8 million but changed little over the year. The long-term unemployed accounted for 25.5 percent of all unemployed people in July.”
As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.
Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report, we see…
The BLS is currently reporting employment of 158.649 million. Last month, the BLS reported employment of 159.830 million for June, which they have adjusted down to 159.748 million a decrease of -82,000. Original May numbers were 159.467 million, adjusted to 159.386 million, a decrease of –81,000. But based on the revised numbers, employment is still up by 382,000 since July 2025.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its May
employment / unemployment report on June 5th, 2026.
Summary:
The jobs report came in much higher than expected, with an uncharacteristic adjustment upward for the previous month’s numbers (April). The biggest gainer was Leisure and hospitality, gaining 70,000 jobs. Job losses occurred in insurance carriers and related activities (-11,000) and commercial banking (-3,000).
According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:
“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 172,000 in May, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, local government, and health care. Employment in financial activities declined…
The number of people jobless less than 5 weeks declined by 286,000 to 2.2 million in May, largely offsetting an increase in the prior month. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was little changed over the month at 2.0 million but is up by 524,000 over the year. The long-term unemployed accounted for 27.5 percent of all unemployed people in May.”
So, despite declines in Government employment, overall employment still increased.
As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.
Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally, the BLS reported employment of 158.695 million for April, which they have since adjusted upward to 158.726 million, an increase of 31,000. Current May numbers are 159.467 million for an increase of 741,000 jobs based on their current numbers or +772,000 based on the original numbers.
Note: According to Politifact, “The federal workforce grew by about 4.8% during Biden’s term, increasing from 2.89 million in January 2021 to 3.02 million in January 2025.”
So, Trump has reduced the federal payroll by more than twice what it gained under Biden. Although this does reduce budget pressure, it also puts pressure on the job market for those who are seeking other employment. It is estimated that between 30-40% of these workers retired, while perhaps 10-15% were working spouses who chose to stay home rather than seek other employment.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its April
employment / unemployment report on May 8th, 2026.
Summary:
The jobs report came in higher than expected, with only a minor adjustment downward for the previous month’s numbers (March). The biggest gainer was Education and Health, gaining 46,000 jobs. The biggest loser was Information, with a loss of -13,000 jobs, and with only three sectors declining.
According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:
“Total nonfarm payroll employment edged up by 115,000 in April, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, transportation and warehousing, and retail trade… Federal government employment continued to decline in April (-9,000). Since reaching a peak in October 2024, federal government employment is down by 348,000, or 11.5 percent”.
So, despite declines in Government employment, overall employment still increased.
As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.
Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally, the BLS reported employment of 157.775 million for March, which they have now adjusted to 157.769 million. Current April numbers are 158.695 million for an increase of 926,000 jobs based on their current numbers or +920,000 based on the original numbers.
Note: According to Politifact, “The federal workforce grew by about 4.8% during Biden’s term, increasing from 2.89 million in January 2021 to 3.02 million in January 2025.”
So, Trump has reduced the federal payroll by more than twice what it gained under Biden. Although this does reduce budget pressure, it also puts pressure on the job market for those who are seeking other employment. It is estimated that between 30-40% of these workers retired, while perhaps 10-15% were working spouses who chose to stay home rather than seek other employment.
Inflation jumped to 3.3% in the latest CPI report, up sharply from 2.4% the prior month. This rapid increase comes on top of the gradual rise in unemployment since its 2023 lows. This leaves the Federal Reserve with no easy options.
This situation is making it increasingly difficult for the Federal Reserve to manage both sides of its dual mandate. The Fed is legally required to pursue two often competing goals: keeping inflation low and stable, and maintaining maximum employment. In normal times, these goals are two sides of a “see-saw”. Increasing the money supply reduces unemployment but increases inflation, and vice versa.
But when inflation surges at the same time the labor market begins to weaken, the Fed finds itself pulled in opposite directions with no clean policy solution. Economists have a word for this combination of stagnating growth, rising unemployment, and persistent inflation: stagflation. It is widely considered one of the most difficult economic environments for policymakers to navigate, as the tools used to fight inflation typically make unemployment worse. That is precisely where we find ourselves today.
The human cost of rising inflation shows up clearly in the Misery Index, which simply adds the unemployment rate to the inflation rate to measure everyday economic stress. In March 2026, the Misery Index rose sharply from 6.81% to 7.56%, driven entirely by the surge in inflation. With unemployment at 4.30% and inflation at 3.26%, Americans are feeling the squeeze from both directions — higher prices at the same time the job market is quietly softening.
The Fed’s Impossible PositionBecause the Federal Reserve is responsible for both goals, when inflation rises, the Fed raises rates. When unemployment rises, the Fed cuts rates. The problem facing policymakers right now is that both metrics are moving in the wrong direction at the same time.
Markets are currently pricing in a 98% chance that the Fed holds rates steady in late April, with over a 90% probability that no rate cuts arrive until October at the earliest. Cutting into rising energy prices would risk reigniting inflation, while holding rates high too long risks allowing a weakening labor market to deteriorate further.
On the surface, the unemployment rate appears relatively stable. But beneath that headline number, the data tells a more concerning story. Hiring is falling, job openings are declining, and the conditions for a more significant rise in unemployment are quietly building, in part due to increasing productivity created by AI. The one bright spot is the Deflationary forces created by AI.
Historically, it is falling asset prices that trigger layoffs — not the other way around. Once layoffs begin to pick up in an environment where hiring has already slowed, the unemployment rate can rise quickly and in a nonlinear fashion. That cycle has not yet been triggered, but the underlying conditions are moving in that direction.
The combination of supply-driven inflation and a softening labor market is a hallmark of late business cycle environments. Energy prices, constrained by geopolitical supply pressures rather than surging demand, are pushing inflation higher at precisely the moment the economy can least afford it.
In past business cycles, this dynamic has preceded recessions. The Fed finds itself unable to ease policy to support employment without risking another inflation surge — a position that historically has made it difficult to avoid a meaningful rise in unemployment once the labor market begins to crack.
The unemployment rate remains the key indicator to monitor in the months ahead. If layoffs accelerate while hiring remains depressed, the unemployment rate could rise faster than many expect. The Fed’s ability to respond will be constrained as long as inflation remains elevated, meaning the labor market may bear the brunt of a policy environment that has run out of easy options.
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The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its March
employment / unemployment report on April 3rd, 2026.
Summary:
The BLS adjusted its February employment numbers downward by 82,000 this month, from 157.286 million to 157.204 million. But the March numbers are still up to 157.775 million. The Census numbers are also a bit unusual this month, in that the U.S. Census Population Clock said 343,369,720 last month, and now it says: 342,414,097. For a decrease of almost 956,000. Since the clock is just an automated estimate, the Census Bureau adjusts it annually to better reflect current population estimates.
According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:
“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 178,000 in March, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, in construction, and in transportation and warehousing. Federal government employment continued to decline.”
So, despite declines in Government employment, overall employment still increased.
Note: According to Politifact, “The federal workforce grew by about 4.8% during Biden’s term, increasing from 2.89 million in January 2021 to 3.02 million in January 2025.” According to the Economic Policy Institute, “Federal employment has declined by 352,000 jobs since January 2025.”
As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.
Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally, the BLS reported employment of 156.714 million for January, which they adjusted slightly to 156.723 million in February and up again to 156.728 million this month.
They originally reported 157.286 million jobs for February, which they adjusted down to 157.204 million this month.
Current March numbers are 157.775 million for an increase of 571,000 jobs based on their current numbers or +489,000 based on the original numbers.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report
for December on January 9th, 2026.
Summary:
Despite Seasonally Adjusted BLS statements, if we look at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report, Total Employed decreased in December, but Unadjusted and Adjusted Unemployment also decreased. Labor Force Participation was also down slightly.
According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:
“Both total nonfarm payroll employment (+50,000) and the unemployment rate (4.4 percent) changed little in December, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in food services and drinking places, health care, and social assistance. Retail trade lost jobs…
Since reaching a peak in January, federal government employment is down by 277,000, or 9.2 percent. (Employees on paid leave or receiving ongoing severance pay are counted as employed in the establishment survey.)… Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.8 percent. “
You can read the full BLS report here.
As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.
Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally, the BLS reported employment of 160.652 million for November,
which they adjusted slightly to 160.640 million jobs for November.
They are currently reporting 160.448 million jobs for December, which is actually a decrease of -204,000 jobs based on their original numbers.
The LFPR was down from 62.5% in November to 62.4% in December. [Read more…] about Unemployment Report for December 2025
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its delayed employment / unemployment report for November
on December 16th, 2025.
Summary:
Although unemployment information for October is not available Employmentdata was still collected. Total Employed increased in both October and November. Unadjusted Unemployment was 4.3% in both September and November, but Seasonally adjusted Unemployment increased in November.
According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:
“Total nonfarm payroll employment changed little in November (+64,000) and has shown little net change since April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. In November, the unemployment rate, at 4.6 percent, was little changed from September. Employment rose in health care and construction in November, while the federal government continued to lose jobs…
Federal government employment continued to decrease in November (-6,000). This follows a sharp decline of 162,000 in October, as some federal employees who accepted a deferred resignation offer came off federal payrolls. Federal government employment is down by 271,000 since reaching a peak in January. (Federal employees on furlough during the government shutdown were counted as employed in the establishment survey because they received pay, even if later than usual, for the pay period that included the 12th of the month. Employees on paid leave or receiving ongoing severance pay are counted as employed in the establishment survey.)”
You can read the full BLS report here.
As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.
Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report, we see…
Originally, the BLS reported employment of 159.732 million for September.
They are currently reporting 160.411 million jobs for October and 160.652 million for November, which is actually an increase of 241,000 jobs from October to November. The LFPR was up from 62.4% in September to 62.5% in November.
As we can see, unemployment is above pre-COVID lows of 2019 and the January and April lows of 2023.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data regarding the Unemployment situation in September was not released on October 3rd as scheduled due to the Federal Government shutdown.
Based on the alternative data from ADP we see:
Private employers shed 32,000 jobs in September
ADP provides an independent (non-government) estimate of private-sector employment and pay, based on data derived from ADP client payrolls. According to ADP®, In collaboration with Stanford Digital Economy Lab. The numbers are released a few days before the BLS numbers and are often quite different.
Source: ADP®
Small to medium-sized companies shed employees in September. However, larger companies took up some of the slack by adding employees.
Drilling down a bit deeper, we can see that the largest gainer was Education and Health which makes sense with school going back in session and health always looking for more help. And the biggest loser isn’t surprising either as Leisure and Hospitality cuts back as the Summer winds down.
September pay gains were steady for job-stayers
The Median Annual Pay for Job Stayers in September was $61,000.
Source: ADP
Read more on UnemploymentData.com.
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