2026

May Jobs Report for April 2026

May 9, 2026 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its April
employment / unemployment report on May 8^th,2026.

Employment / Unemployment

Seasonally Adjusted U-3 is 4.3% Unchanged
Unadjusted U-3 is 4.0% down from 4.3%
Unadjusted U-6 is 7.7% down from 8.0%
Labor Force Participation is 61.8% down from 61.9%
Unadjusted Employment rose from 157.769 million to 158.695 million
Next Update: June 5^th, 2026

Summary:
The jobs report came in higher than expected, with only a minor adjustment downward for the previous month’s numbers (March). The biggest gainer was Education and Health, gaining 46,000 jobs. The biggest loser was Information, with a loss of -13,000 jobs, and with only three sectors declining.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment edged up by 115,000 in April, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, transportation and warehousing, and retail trade… Federal government employment continued to decline in April (-9,000). Since reaching a peak in October 2024, federal government employment is down by 348,000, or 11.5 percent”.

So, despite declines in Government employment, overall employment still increased.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally, the BLS reported employment of 157.775 million for March, which they have now adjusted to 157.769 million. Current April numbers are 158.695 million for an increase of 926,000 jobs based on their current numbers or +920,000 based on the original numbers.

Note: According to Politifact, “The federal workforce grew by about 4.8% during Biden’s term, increasing from 2.89 million in January 2021 to 3.02 million in January 2025.”

So, Trump has reduced the federal payroll by more than twice what it gained under Biden. Although this does reduce budget pressure, it also puts pressure on the job market for those who are seeking other employment. It is estimated that between 30-40% of these workers retired, while perhaps 10-15% were working spouses who chose to stay home rather than seek other employment.

Why February 2026’s Jobs Report Was an Anomaly, Not a Trend

April 6, 2026 by Tim McMahon

Image created by Bing AI

When the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the February 2026 employment report, the headline number sent a jolt through financial markets: nonfarm payrolls had dropped by 92,000, a dramatic reversal from January’s solid gain. Economists and commentators rushed to declare the labor market was cracking. They were wrong — or at least, they were telling the wrong story.

February was a perfect storm of one-time disruptions stacking on top of each other. When you look closer, the underlying labor market looks nothing like the headline number suggests.

January Was Stronger Than It First Appeared

Let’s start with the baseline. The original January payroll figure of +126,000 was subsequently revised upward by 34,000 to +160,000. That’s a meaningfully strong month, representing solid underlying demand for workers. The February weakness has to be understood against that backdrop, not against a weaker starting point. [Read more…] about Why February 2026’s Jobs Report Was an Anomaly, Not a Trend

April Employment Report for March 2026

April 4, 2026 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its March
employment / unemployment report on April 3^rd,2026.

Employment / Unemployment

Seasonally Adjusted U-3 is 4.3% down from 4.4%
Unadjusted U-3 is also 4.3% down from 4.7%
Unadjusted U-6 is 8.0% it was 8.3%
Labor Force Participation is 61.9% it was 62.0%
Unadjusted Employment rose from 157.204 million to 157.775 million
Next Update: May 8^th, 2026

Summary:
The BLS adjusted its February employment numbers downward by 82,000 this month, from 157.286 million to 157.204 million. But the March numbers are still up to 157.775 million. The Census numbers are also a bit unusual this month, in that the U.S. Census Population Clock said 343,369,720 last month, and now it says: 342,414,097. For a decrease of almost 956,000. Since the clock is just an automated estimate, the Census Bureau adjusts it annually to better reflect current population estimates.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 178,000 in March, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, in construction, and in transportation and warehousing. Federal government employment continued to decline.”

So, despite declines in Government employment, overall employment still increased.

Note: According to Politifact, “The federal workforce grew by about 4.8% during Biden’s term, increasing from 2.89 million in January 2021 to 3.02 million in January 2025.” According to the Economic Policy Institute, “Federal employment has declined by 352,000 jobs since January 2025.”

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally, the BLS reported employment of 156.714 million for January, which they adjusted slightly to 156.723 million in February and up again to 156.728 million this month.

They originally reported 157.286 million jobs for February, which they adjusted down to 157.204 million this month.

Current March numbers are 157.775 million for an increase of 571,000 jobs based on their current numbers or +489,000 based on the original numbers.

March Employment Report for February 2026

March 7, 2026 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its February
employment / unemployment report on March 6^th,2026.

Employment / Unemployment

Seasonally Adjusted U-3 was 4.4% up from 4.3%
Unadjusted U-3 was 4.7%
Unadjusted U-6 was 8.3%
Labor Force Participation was 62.0%
Unadjusted Employment rose from 156.723 million to 157.286 million
30,000 of the Job losses are temporary due to a strike
ADP is reporting 63,000 Jobs added in February, saying “Hiring jumped in February, delivering the best showing for job gains since November 2025″
Next Update: April 3rd, 2026

Summary:

The BLS adjusted many of its numbers this month. According to the BLS “January 2026 estimates were revised to incorporate updated population controls.” January’s UnAdjusted U-6 was increased from 8.7% to 8.8%, UnAdjusted U3 was increased from 4.6% to 4.7%, but the Seasonally Adjusted U3 remained the same at 4.3%. The changes were based on the adjustment of the Civilian population from 274.982 million to 274.676 million.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment edged down by 92,000 in February, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.4 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment in health care decreased, reflecting strike activity. Employment in information and federal government continued to trend down… Both the unemployment rate, at 4.4 percent, and the number of unemployed people, at 7.6 million, changed little in February.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs,” and there was a major strike of Healthcare workers in California and Hawaii that accounted for 30,000 of those lost jobs, which will be back shortly.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally, the BLS reported employment of 156.714 million for January, which they adjusted slightly to 156.723 million this month.

They are currently reporting 157.286 million jobs for February which is actually an increase of 572,000 jobs based on their original numbers. The LFPR was originally 62.5% in January, but January’s numbers were adjusted down to 62.1% this month. February is said to be 62.0%.

AI Is an Easy Scapegoat for Layoffs

Several major companies across tech, finance, logistics, and consulting have publicly cited AI or “AI-driven efficiencies” as justification for layoffs. The most explicit examples include Block, Amazon, Salesforce, Accenture, and dozens more identified in aggregated reports. Some CEOs and analysts argue many firms are using AI as a scapegoat for deeper business problems.

Block cut ~40% of its workforce (~4,000 jobs). CEO Jack Dorsey said AI “enables a significantly smaller team to do more and do it better.” But they were really inefficient to start with.

Amazon blamed AI for a 14,000-job reduction. Meta cited AI investments while cutting jobs; critics say the real cause was overexpansion. Google said layoffs linked to “AI-driven restructuring,” though OpenAI’s Sam Altman says AI is not the real driver. According to CNBC, many firms “significantly overhired” and are now using AI as a public-facing justification for layoffs.

Bottom line: Although AI is enabling some productivity gains and role consolidation, especially in customer support, basic coding, content production, and back-office workflows. But, announced “AI-related layoffs” are still a small share of total layoffs, and Macro productivity data doesn’t yet show a clear, AI-driven step-change. Many firms appear to be using AI as an excuse to impress investors, signal “modernization,” or cover overhiring and weak demand rather than reporting actual savings.

On Wednesday, the European Central Bank (“ECB”) contradicted the AI job loss narrative by saying:
“Companies that make significant use of AI are about 4% more likely to take on additional staff. In other words, AI-intensive firms tend, on average, to hire rather than fire. Much the same can be said of investment in AI: firms that invest in AI are nearly 2% more likely to hire additional staff than those that don’t.”