BLS

May Unemployment Still Low

June 8, 2019 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly unemployment survey results for May on June 7^th. Although Unemployment is still at record lows job creation is less than expected.

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

The U.S. economy created 75,000 jobs in May and the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate held steady at 3.6 percent. However, economists projected a 175,000 jobs gain and instead only got 75,000 so they were disappointed but that didn’t stop the stock market with the DOW gaining over 1% in a single day.

According to the BLS Commissioner’s report for this month:

“ Nonfarm payroll employment edged up in May (+75,000), and the unemployment rate remained at 3.6 percent.
Employment continued to trend up in professional and business services and in health care…
In May, 4.4 million people were working part time for economic reasons (also referred to as involuntary part-time workers),
down by 299,000 from the previous month and by 565,000 over the year.”

Key factors in the report were:
Employment in professional and business services increased by 33,000…
Health Care employment rose by 16,000…
Construction employment increased by 4,000…
Seasonally Adjusted U-3 Unemployment remains at its lowest rate since December 1969.

Of course the Commissioner is talking about “Seasonally Adjusted” jobs. In unadjusted terms April had 150.942 million jobs and May had 151.629 million for an actual increase of 687,000 jobs.

For more info see our Current Unemployment Chart and Current U.S. Employment Chart commentary:

Key May Employment and Unemployment Numbers

Adjusted U-3 Unemployment- 3.6% unchanged from April
Unadjusted U-3 Unemployment- 3.4% up from 3.3% in April but down from 3.9% in March and 4.1% in February, and 4.4% in January.
Unadjusted U-6 Unemployment- 6.7% down from 6.9% in April and 7.5% in March, 7.7% in February and 8.8% in January.
Unadjusted Employment (Establishment Survey)- 151.629 million up from 150.988 million in April, 149.862 million in March, 149.143 million in February and 148.295 million in January.
Labor Force Participation Rate- 62.8% unchanged from April.

Current Seasonally Adjusted U-3 levels are below the 3.8% lows of 2000. Prior to that we have to go all the way back to 1969 to see better unemployment levels than we have currently. If we break below 3.4% we have to go all the way back to 1953 to find lower levels and remember that was during the boom that followed WWII with a massive loss of the workforce due to the war so we probably won’t see levels that low again.

April Unemployment Lowest since 1969

May 4, 2019 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly unemployment survey results for April on May 3^rd and it is much better than anyone expected.

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

The U.S. economy created 263,000 jobs in April and the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate dropped to 3.6 percent.

That far exceeded the 180,000 estimated by economists. Last month the economists projected a 175,000 jobs gain and instead got 196,000 for two excellent months in a row.

According to the BLS Commissioner’s report for this month:

“In April, nonfarm payroll employment increased by 263,000, and the unemployment rate declined to 3.6 percent. Over the month, notable job gains occurred in professional and business services, construction, health care, and social assistance. The April employment gain compares with an average monthly gain of 213,000 over the prior 12 months. (The prior 12-month average incorporates revisions for February and March, which increased nonfarm payroll employment by 16,000 on net.)”

Key factors in the report were:
Employment in professional and business services increased by 76,000…
Construction employment rose by 33,000…
Employment in health care increased by 27,000…
Seasonally Adjusted U-3 Unemployment is the lowest rate since December 1969.

Of course the Commissioner is talking about “Seasonally Adjusted” jobs. In unadjusted terms March had 149.862 million jobs while April had 150.988 million jobs for an actual increase of 1,126,000 jobs.

For more info see our Current Unemployment Chart and Current U.S. Employment Chart commentary:

Key April Employment and Unemployment Numbers

Adjusted U-3 Unemployment- 3.6% Down from 3.8% in March
Unadjusted U-3 Unemployment- 3.3% down from 3.9% in March and 4.1% in February, and 4.4% in January.
Unadjusted U-6 Unemployment- 6.9% down from 7.5% in March, 7.7% in February and 8.8% in January, 7.5% in December.
Unadjusted Employment (Establishment Survey)- 150.988 million up from 149.862 million in March, 149.143 million in February and 148.295 million in January.
Labor Force Participation Rate- 62.8% down from 63.0% in March and from the peak of 63.2% in February.

March Unemployment Numbers Celebrated

April 6, 2019 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly unemployment survey results for March on April 5^th and it has the market pundits celebrating. Last month they worried over the mere 20,000 jobs created after projections were for 175,000 jobs.

This month once again the projections were for 175,000 new jobs but the BLS says there were 195,000 new jobs so the market is happy.

As we said in the Current Unemployment Chart commentary:

According to the BLS Commissioner’s report for this month:
“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 196,000 in March, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in health care and in professional and technical services… The employment-population ratio was 60.6 percent in March and has been either 60.6 percent or 60.7 percent since October 2018… Health care added 49,000 jobs in March and 398,000 over the past 12 months… Employment in professional and technical services grew by 34,000 in March and 311,000 over the past 12 months. “

Key factors in the report were the unemployment rate for Women dropped to another mega low of 3.3% from 3.6% last month.
Black unemployment was 6.7% and Hispanic Unemployment was 4.7%.

Last month the media was unpleasantly surprised by the Jobs report being lower than the consensus and this month they were pleasantly surprised by the higher than expected jobs. “Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal expected that the jobs report would show solid growth by 175,000 jobs” but instead the report showed 196,000 “Seasonally Adjusted” jobs created, “making March the 102nd straight month of job growth”. In unadjusted terms February had 149.867 million jobs while March had 149.133 million jobs for an actual increase of 724,000 jobs.

Key March Employment and Unemployment Numbers

Adjusted U-3 Unemployment- 3.8% unchanged from February but down from 4.0% in January, and 3.9% in December.
Unadjusted U-3 Unemployment- 3.9% down from 4.1% in February, and 4.4% in January, but above the 3.7% in December.
Unadjusted U-6 Unemployment- 7.5% down from 7.7% in February and 8.8% in January, 7.5% in December.
Unadjusted Employment (Establishment Survey)- 149.867 up from 149.143 in February and 148.295 million in January.
February Labor Force Participation Rate- 63.0% down from the peak of 63.2% in February, and 63.1% in December.

Current Seasonally Adjusted U-3 levels are still hovering around the lows of 2000. Prior to that we have to go all the way back to 1969 to see better unemployment levels than we have currently. Current levels are rising a bit from a cyclical low not seen since 1969. Also noteworthy is that levels do not stay this low for very long. The longest low like this was the seven month period from October 1968 through April 1969. Prior to 1969 was a one month low of 3.7% in 1957. On the plus side, [Read more…] about March Unemployment Numbers Celebrated

February Unemployment- Only 20,000 New Jobs?

March 9, 2019 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly unemployment survey results for February on March 8^th and it has the market pundits wringing their hands over the mere 20,000 jobs created after projections were for 175,000 jobs. Optimists are blaming the government shutdown combined with the weather causing a lack of construction jobs in the Seasonally Adjusted jobs numbers.

But if job creation is only 20,000 why is Unadjusted U-6 Unemployment down from 8.8% in January to 7.7% in February? Why has the unemployment rate for Hispanics dropped to another mega low of 4.3%? And why is the unemployment rate for Women 3.6%?

The non-seasonally adjusted jobs number is up by 827,000 jobs from January to February compared to an increase of 1.237 million during the same period last year and an increase of 1.03 million from January – February 2017. So, yes the increase is considerably smaller but as we near full employment it becomes progressively harder to find new employees even if you have jobs available. The problem shifts from a lack of jobs to a lack of qualified employees.

Key February Employment and Unemployment Numbers

Adjusted U-3 Unemployment- 3.8% down from 4.0% in January, 3.9% in December and 3.7% in November.
Unadjusted U-3 Unemployment- 4.1% down from 4.4% in January, 3.7% in December and 3.5% in November.
Unadjusted U-6 Unemployment- 7.7% down from 8.8% in January, 7.5% in December and 7.2% in November.
Unadjusted Employment (Establishment Survey)- 149.133 up from 148.201 million in January, 151.190 million in December and 151.244 million in November.
February Labor Force Participation Rate- Unchanged at 63.2% up from 63.1% in December and LFPR 62.9% highest since 2013.
101st straight gain in Seasonally Adjusted Employment- (Household Survey) 156.949 up from 156.694 in January

Current Seasonally Adjusted U-3 levels are hovering around the lows of 2000. Prior to that we have to go all the way back to 1969 to see better unemployment levels than we have currently. Current levels are rising a bit from a cyclical low not seen since 1969. Also noteworthy is that levels do not stay this low for very long. The longest low like this was the seven month period from October 1968 through April 1969. Prior to 1969 was a one month low of 3.7% in 1957. On the plus side, [Read more…] about February Unemployment- Only 20,000 New Jobs?

January Employment the Good and Bad

February 2, 2019 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly unemployment survey results for January on February 1^st. “Seasonally Adjusted” Unemployment U-3 is 4.0% up from 3.9% in December. Unadjusted U-3 was 4.4% up from 3.7% in December and 3.5% in November.

Looking back, Seasonally Adjusted U-3 started 2017 at 4.8% then it bounced around between 4.3% and 4.4% from April through October 2017, then it stayed at 4.1% from October 2017 through March 2018. It bounced between 3.8% and 4.0% from April through August 2018 before falling to 3.7% in September – November. So unemployment is currently at the same level as it was from April through August 2018.

Key January Employment and Unemployment Numbers

Adjusted U-3 Unemployment- 4.0% up from 3.9% in December and 3.7% in November.
Unadjusted U-3 Unemployment- 4.4% up from 3.7% in December and 3.5% in November.
Unadjusted U-6 Unemployment- 8.8% up from 7.5% in December and 7.2% in November.
Unadjusted Employment- 148.201 million down from 151.190 million in December and 151.244 million in November.
January Labor Force Participation Rate- 63.2% up from 63.1% in December and LFPR 62.9%.
100th straight gain in Seasonally Adjusted Employment

As I have been saying for a while [Read more…] about January Employment the Good and Bad

December “Monster” Jobs Report (or is it?)

January 5, 2019 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly unemployment survey results for December on January 4^thand some are calling it a “monster” jobs report causing the DOW to gain almost 747 points (3.29%). The reason for this is that the “Seasonally Adjusted” jobs number was up 312,000 while the consensus was expecting an increase of only 176,000.

However all is not roses in employment land. There are a few thorns in the jobs report. Both Adjusted and Unadjusted Unemployment were actually up and Unadjusted Employment was down.

Adjusted U-3 was 3.9% up from 3.7% in November. Unadjusted U-3 was 3.7% up from 3.5% in November. Unadjusted U-6 was also up from 7.2% in November to 7.5% in December. Unadjusted Employment- 151.190 million down from 151.244 million in November. All of this sounds Bad! The major factor that the market has latched onto in this report is the Labor Force Participation Rate which has bounced above 63% for the first time since 2014. See Labor Force Participation below for more.

As I have been saying for a while typically unemployment doesn’t stay below 4% for very long. As we can see from the chart below the dip in 2006-7 didn’t even get below 4%. The 2000 dip only spent a couple of months below 4%. The 1960, 1973, ’79 and ’89 dips didn’t get below 4% at all.

The three major exceptions are: [Read more…] about December “Monster” Jobs Report (or is it?)

November Employment Gains Less Than Projected But…

December 8, 2018 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly unemployment survey results for November on December 7^th. Unadjusted U-3 and “Seasonally Adjusted” Unemployment U-3 were unchanged. Adjusted U-3 was 3.7% for the third month in a row while unadjusted was 3.5% for the second month. This is the lowest level since December 1969 when Adjusted U-3 was 3.5%. The lowest level reached in the 1968-1969 timeframe was 3.4% where it hovered from September 1968 through May 1969. The only other time that unemployment was this low since they began tracking unemployment in 1948 was briefly in 1948 and again in 1951-53.

Remember that the world population had just been drastically reduced through WWII (ending in 1945) so there were much fewer working age men available. So it is unlikely that we will see unemployment at 1953 levels again.

Key November Employment and Unemployment Numbers

Adjusted U-3 Unemployment- 3.7% unchanged since September down from 3.9% in August, This is the lowest Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment rate since 1969.
Unadjusted U-3 Unemployment- 3.5% unchanged from October down from 3.6% in September and 3.9% in August and 4.1% in July and 4.2% in June.
Unadjusted U-6 Unemployment- 7.2% up from 7.0% in October and 7.1% in September still below the 7.4% in August and 7.9% in July, 8.1% in June.
Employment 151.232 million up from 150.757 million in October. (475,000 more jobs)
November Labor Force Participation Rate 62.9% unchanged from October but up from 62.7% in September. (Higher is Better)

See Current Unemployment Chart for more info.

Previous Record Low Unemployment (Seasonally Adjusted U-3)

	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
1950	6.5%	6.4%	6.3%	5.8%	5.5%	5.4%	5.0%	4.5%	4.4%	4.2%	4.2%	4.3%
1951	3.7%	3.4%	3.4%	3.1%	3.0%	3.2%	3.1%	3.1%	3.3%	3.5%	3.5%	3.1%
1952	3.2%	3.1%	2.9%	2.9%	3.0%	3.0%	3.2%	3.4%	3.1%	3.0%	2.8%	2.7%
1953	2.9%	2.6%	2.6%	2.7%	2.5%	2.5%	2.6%	2.7%	2.9%	3.1%	3.5%	4.5%
1954	4.9%	5.2%	5.7%	5.9%	5.9%	5.6%	5.8%	6.0%	6.1%	5.7%	5.3%	5.0%
…	…	…	…	…	…	…	…	…	…	…	…	…
1965	4.9%	5.1%	4.7%	4.8%	4.6%	4.6%	4.4%	4.4%	4.3%	4.2%	4.1%	4.0%
1966	4.0%	3.8%	3.8%	3.8%	3.9%	3.8%	3.8%	3.8%	3.7%	3.7%	3.6%	3.8%
1967	3.9%	3.8%	3.8%	3.8%	3.8%	3.9%	3.8%	3.8%	3.8%	4.0%	3.9%	3.8%
1968	3.7%	3.8%	3.7%	3.5%	3.5%	3.7%	3.7%	3.5%	3.4%	3.4%	3.4%	3.4%
1969	3.4%	3.4%	3.4%	3.4%	3.4%	3.5%	3.5%	3.5%	3.7%	3.7%	3.5%	3.5%
1970	3.9%	4.2%	4.4%	4.6%	4.8%	4.9%	5.0%	5.1%	5.4%	5.5%	5.9%	6.1%

Employment

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner’s report:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 155,000 in November, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.7 percent.
Job gains occurred in health care, in manufacturing, and in transportation and warehousing.”

November Employment Gains Less Than Projected But…

The stock market is fretting because projections called for an increase of 195,000 (seasonally adjusted jobs) and we “only” got 155,000 but Employment is at a new all time record 151.232 million up from 150.757 million in October. The previous high was set in June 2018 at 150.040 million. So, although the “Seasonally Adjusted” jobs increase was “only” 155,000 there were 475,000 more actual jobs.

Incidentally, last month adjusted jobs exceeded projections by almost exactly the same amount as they fell short this month. So one could argue that the two month increase is exactly on projection.

Employment by Sector

The employment “bubble chart” gives us a good representation of how each sector of the economy is doing (employment wise). As we can see from the chart below [Read more…] about November Employment Gains Less Than Projected But…

October Employment Hits New Record High

November 3, 2018 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly unemployment survey results for October on November 2^nd. Unadjusted U-3 and U-6 Unemployment is down again and “Seasonally Adjusted” Unemployment U-3 was 3.7% for the second month in a row. This is the lowest level since December 1969 when it was 3.5%. The lowest level reached in the 1968-1969 timeframe was 3.4% where it hovered from September 1968 through May 1969. The only other time that unemployment was this low since they began tracking unemployment in 1948 was briefly in 1948 and again in 1951-53.

Employment is at an all time record 150.753 million the previous high was set in June 2018. Last month employment was 149.738 million so the actual increase in jobs was over 1 million, although the “Seasonally Adjusted” jobs increase was “only” 250,000. Even that was significantly higher than the projected 208,000.

Previous Record Low Unemployment

	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
1965	4.9%	5.1%	4.7%	4.8%	4.6%	4.6%	4.4%	4.4%	4.3%	4.2%	4.1%	4.0%
1966	4.0%	3.8%	3.8%	3.8%	3.9%	3.8%	3.8%	3.8%	3.7%	3.7%	3.6%	3.8%
1967	3.9%	3.8%	3.8%	3.8%	3.8%	3.9%	3.8%	3.8%	3.8%	4.0%	3.9%	3.8%
1968	3.7%	3.8%	3.7%	3.5%	3.5%	3.7%	3.7%	3.5%	3.4%	3.4%	3.4%	3.4%
1969	3.4%	3.4%	3.4%	3.4%	3.4%	3.5%	3.5%	3.5%	3.7%	3.7%	3.5%	3.5%
1970	3.9%	4.2%	4.4%	4.6%	4.8%	4.9%	5.0%	5.1%	5.4%	5.5%	5.9%	6.1%

Key October Employment and Unemployment Numbers

Adjusted U-3 Unemployment- 3.7% unchanged from September down from 3.9% in August.
Unadjusted U-3 Unemployment- 3.5% down from 3.6% in September and 3.9% in August and 4.1% in July and 4.2% in June.
Unadjusted U-6 Unemployment- 7.0% down from 7.1% in September and 7.4% in August and 7.9% in July, 8.1% in June.
Employment 150.753 million up from 149.741 million in September. (Yes over a Million more jobs!)
October Labor Force Participation Rate 62.9% up from 62.7% in September. (Higher is Better)

See Current Unemployment Chart for more info.

The Differential between U3 and U6 Remains Near September 2006 Lows

Last month the differential between the unadjusted U3 and U6 (reached by subtracting U3 from U6) was at 3.5% and remains there for the 3rd month in a row.

See Current U-6 Unemployment Rate for more info.

Employment by Sector

The employment “bubble chart” gives us a good representation of how each sector of the economy is doing (employment wise). As we can see from the chart below [Read more…] about October Employment Hits New Record High

Arkansas, California, Idaho, South Carolina, Texas and Washington Set New Unemployment Lows in September

October 20, 2018 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Unemployment rates by state on Friday October 19^th. Seasonally adjusted unemployment rates for September fell over the previous month in 9 states, were higher in 4 states, and stable in 37 states and the District of Columbia.

Nonfarm payroll employment increased in 1 state, decreased in 9 states, and was stable in 37 states and D.C.

In the following map we can see the states with the lowest unemployment are light colored while the higher unemployment states are darker colored.

Unemployment

Arkansas, California, Idaho, South Carolina, Texas and Washington Set New Series Lows

Hawaii had the lowest seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in September, at 2.2%. Arkansas (3.5%), California (4.1%), Idaho (2.7%), South Carolina (3.3%), Texas (3.8%), and Washington (4.4%) set a new series low since tracking began in 1976. At 6.5% Alaska had the highest jobless rate, not counting Puerto Rico’s 8.4% which is down 2.2% from year ago levels. In total, 13 states had unemployment rates lower than the U.S. figure of 3.7 percent, 12 states plus the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico had higher rates, and 25 states had [Read more…] about Arkansas, California, Idaho, South Carolina, Texas and Washington Set New Unemployment Lows in September

Unemployment Reaches Lowest Point Since 1969

October 6, 2018 by Tim McMahon

According to the the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) monthly unemployment survey results for the month of September 2018 the current “Seasonally Adjusted” Unemployment Rate for September is 3.7% the lowest level since December 1969 when it was 3.5%. Unfortunately, by December 1970 unemployment was up to 6.1%.

The lowest level reached in the 1968-1969 timeframe was 3.4% where it hovered from September 1968 through May 1969. The only other time that unemployment was this low since they began tracking unemployment in 1948 was briefly in 1948 and again in 1951-53.

	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
1965	4.9%	5.1%	4.7%	4.8%	4.6%	4.6%	4.4%	4.4%	4.3%	4.2%	4.1%	4.0%
1966	4.0%	3.8%	3.8%	3.8%	3.9%	3.8%	3.8%	3.8%	3.7%	3.7%	3.6%	3.8%
1967	3.9%	3.8%	3.8%	3.8%	3.8%	3.9%	3.8%	3.8%	3.8%	4.0%	3.9%	3.8%
1968	3.7%	3.8%	3.7%	3.5%	3.5%	3.7%	3.7%	3.5%	3.4%	3.4%	3.4%	3.4%
1969	3.4%	3.4%	3.4%	3.4%	3.4%	3.5%	3.5%	3.5%	3.7%	3.7%	3.5%	3.5%
1970	3.9%	4.2%	4.4%	4.6%	4.8%	4.9%	5.0%	5.1%	5.4%	5.5%	5.9%	6.1%

Key September Employment and Unemployment Numbers

Adjusted U-3 Unemployment: 3.7% down from 3.9% in August, This is the lowest Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment rate since 1969.
Unadjusted U-3 Unemployment: 3.6% down from 3.9% in August and 4.1% in July and 4.2% in June.
Unadjusted U-6 Unemployment: 7.1% down from 7.4% in August and 7.9% in July, 8.1% in June, and below record lows of 7.3% in May, and 7.4% in April.
Employment: 149.741 million up from 149.226 million originally reported for August.
September Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.7% unchanged from August but down from July 62.9%.

See Current Unemployment Chart for more info.

Full Employment is Near – Differential between U3 and U6 nearing September 2006 Lows

Last month we incorrectly reported that the differential between the unadjusted U3 and U6 (reached by subtracting U3 from U6) was at 3.2% when in fact it was only at 3.5% so it still had a little way to go to reach the 3.2% low of September 2006. This month, although both U3 and U6 have fallen the differential remains at the 3.5% level.

See Current U-6 Unemployment Rate for more info.

Employment by Sector

The employment “bubble chart” gives us a good representation of how each sector of the economy is doing (employment wise). As we can see from the chart below [Read more…] about Unemployment Reaches Lowest Point Since 1969