BLS

October 2024 Employment / Unemployment Report

November 2, 2024 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for October on November 1^st,2024.

Employment / Unemployment

Seasonally Adjusted U3- 4.1% Unchanged from September
Unadjusted U3- 3.9% Unchanged from September
Unadjusted U6- 7.3% Unchanged from September
Labor Force Participation Rate 62.6% down from September
Employment 160.007 million up from 159.181 million
Next data release December 6^th, 2024

Summary:
Total Employed increased very slightly in October, Unadjusted Unemployment was unchanged, Seasonally adjusted Unemployment was unchanged. Virtually everything was unchanged except LFPR fell by 0.1%.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment was essentially unchanged in October (+12,000), and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in health care and government. Temporary help services lost jobs. Employment declined in manufacturing due to strike activity…

The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1 percent in October, and the number of unemployed people was little changed at 7.0 million. These measures are higher than a year earlier, when the jobless rate was 3.8 percent, and the number of unemployed people was 6.4 million.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

So, for the month little changed, but on a year-over-year basis the economy is worse with more unemployed people.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 159.177 million for September
which they adjusted slightly to 159.181 million in November.

They are currently reporting 160.007 million jobs for October which is actually an increase of 83,000 jobs over their initial numbers or 82,600 over their revised numbers. The LFPR was down slightly from 62.7% to 62.6%.

Bad News for the Market?

The stock market initially rallied but lost steam mid-day and ended up down for the day. As we said last month, “the market doesn’t like uncertainty so it is waiting for election results before making any major moves. Other uncertainty revolves around the Middle-East and Russia.” Despite a rally in-between, the NYSE is roughly at the same place it was on August 30^th.

Current Unemployment Rate Chart

As we can see from the chart below, although still low, unemployment is above pre-COVID lows of 2019 and 0.7% above the January and April lows of 2023.

Before the COVID-19 spike, February 2020’s 3.5% Seasonally Adjusted U-3 unemployment levels were excellent, i.e., just a hair above the 1969 lows of 3.4%. The only break below 3.4% was all the way back in 1953 (during the Korean War). The COVID worldwide spike took unemployment to unprecedented high levels, but then returned to the “excellent” range.

At 4.1% it is no longer “Excellent” but still in the “Very Good” range.

Can We Trust the September Unemployment Numbers?

October 9, 2024 by Tim McMahon

In a recent article published by The Epoch Times, Jeffrey A. Tucker founder of the Brownstone Institute wrote an article examining the BLS’ glowing September 2024 Unemployment report. According to the BLS Unemployment fell significantly in September and the media rejoiced in this report without delving into the actual details.

But as Jeffrey dug deeper, he found some strange anomalies. As we do, he examined both the establishment payroll numbers and compared them to the Household Survey numbers. But Jeffrey also looked at the types of jobs, part-time or full-time, foreign-born or U.S. born, and government vs. private sector jobs. [Read more…] about Can We Trust the September Unemployment Numbers?

September Jobs Report

October 5, 2024 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for September on October 4^th,2024.

Employment / Unemployment

Seasonally Adjusted U3- 4.1% down from 4.2% in August
Unadjusted U3- 3.9% down from 4.4%
Unadjusted U6- 7.3% down from 8.0%
Labor Force Participation Rate 62.7% unchanged
Employment 159.177 million up from 158.717 million
Next data release November 1^st, 2024

Summary:
Total Employed increased in September, Adjusted and Unadjusted Unemployment were both down.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 254,000 in September, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in food services and drinking places, health care, government, social assistance, and construction…

Both the unemployment rate, at 4.1 percent, and the number of unemployed people, at 6.8 million, changed little in September. These measures are higher than a year earlier, when the jobless rate was 3.8 percent, and the number of unemployed people was 6.3 million. “

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 158.650 million for August
which they adjusted slightly to 158.717 million in September.

They are currently reporting 159.177 million jobs for September which is actually an increase of 527,000 jobs based on their original numbers or 46,000 based on their new numbers. The LFPR was unchanged at 62.7%.

Good News for the Market?

The stock market responded slightly favorably with the NYSE up 0.78%. But the market doesn’t like uncertainty so it is waiting for election results before making any major moves. Other uncertainty revolves around the Middle-East and Russia.

Current Unemployment Rate Chart

Seasonally Adjusted U3 Unemployment remains well above the pre-COVID 2019 cyclical lows of 3.5%, and is approaching the yellow zone.

BLS Erases 800,000 Jobs

August 28, 2024 by Tim McMahon

On August 21, 2024, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released a notice that seems to be taking Social Media by storm. In it the BLS stated that after doing their ordinary checking they found that March 2024 data overestimated the number of jobs by 818,000. This is a preliminary to the regular audit that they do every January. So, in this audit they are only checking March as a sample of what is to come.

Back in April when this data was released we published an article entitled March 2024 Employment Higher Than Expected and now we know why. Originally, they said there were 157,218,000 jobs in March up from 156,599,000 putting employment 659,000 jobs above the previous year. But if that number were actually a decrease of -818,000 rather than an increase, it would have meant that jobs were LOWER than the previous year not higher, which would probably have had more impact on markets.

If you have been a long-time subscriber you will know that this isn’t the first time that the BLS has made massive changes to their numbers after the fact. Every month the numbers are different from the originally issued numbers. Sometimes they are slightly different and sometimes they are significantly different. They continue modifying them for three months and then they go back in January and modify them once more. [Read more…] about BLS Erases 800,000 Jobs

July Jobs Report Spooks Stock Market

August 3, 2024 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for July on August 2^nd,2024.

Employment / Unemployment

Seasonally Adjusted U3- 4.3% up from 4.1% in June
Unadjusted U3- 4.5% up from 4.3% in June
Unadjusted U6- 8.2% up from 7.7% in June
Labor Force Participation Rate 62.7% up from 62.6%
Employment 158.445 million down from 159.360 million
Next data release September 6^th, 2024

Summary:
Total Employed decreased in July, adjusted and Unadjusted Unemployment was up.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“The unemployment rate rose to 4.3 percent in July, and nonfarm payroll employment edged up by 114,000, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in health care, in construction, and in transportation and warehousing, while information lost jobs.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 159.392 million for June
which they then adjusted to 159.360 million in August.

They are currently reporting 158.445 million jobs for July which is actually a decrease of 947,000 jobs based on their original numbers. The LFPR was up at 62.7% but the Employment/Population Ratio was down from 60.1% to 60.0%.

Bad News for the Market?

On Wednesday (prior to the Jobs data release on Friday) the stock market reacted bullishly to FED Chairman Powell’s dovish speech with anticipation of a September rate cut. But then markets reversed course on Thursday on preliminary Employment numbers. But what they failed to recognize is that the worst months (highest unemployment) are usually January, June, and July. So a bad July doesn’t really signify much.

Adding to the market’s woes, Intel dropped a bombshell with its earnings report. The company announced plans to slash jobs and suspend dividends after missing earnings targets and delivering a disappointing sales forecast. Intel shares cratered over 25% in early trading, dragging other chip stocks down with it.

In other news, Israel is suspected of killing a Hamas leader inside Iran. So now the market also fears retaliation by Iran causing a war in the Middle East. In addition to these political problems, Japan is creating financial problems for the U.S. by raising interest rates while other countries are lowering them. As you can see from the chart below, Japan has had zero or near-zero interest rates for almost 30 years. For a brief stretch, their rates got all the way up to 3/4 of 1%! (Horror of Horrors). But since 2008 they have been below 1/3rd of 1%.

This has created what is called the “Carry Trade” where people could borrow Yen almost interest-free and invest that money in higher-yielding things like Nvidia or other NASDAQ stocks or even lower-risk things like U.S. Treasury Bills. However, with the Bank of Japan (BOJ) raising rates, the free money is drying up, which creates selling pressure on the NASDAQ.

The NYSE was down -1.79% on Friday after being down -1.16% on Thursday.

Current Unemployment Rate Chart

Seasonally Adjusted U3 Unemployment remains above the pre-COVID 2019 cyclical lows of 3.5%, but is approaching the yellow zone.

June Employment Weak

July 6, 2024 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for June on July 5^th,2024.

Employment / Unemployment

Seasonally Adjusted U3- 4.1% up from 4.0% in May
Unadjusted U3- 4.3% up from 3.7% in May
Unadjusted U6- 7.7% up from 7.1% in May
Labor Force Participation Rate 62.6% up from 62.5%
Employment 159.392 million up from 158.845 million
Next data release August 2^nd, 2024

Summary:
Total Employed increased in June, Unadjusted Unemployment was up sharply, but Seasonally adjusted Unemployment increased only slightly.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 206,000 in June, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in government, health care, social assistance, and construction…

Both the unemployment rate, at 4.1 percent, and the number of unemployed people, at 6.8 million, changed little in June. These measures are higher than a year earlier, when the jobless rate was 3.6 percent and the number of unemployed people was 6.0 million.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 158.918 million for May
which they now adjusted to 158.845 million.

They are currently reporting 159.392 million jobs for June which is actually an increase of 474,000 jobs compare to what they first reported or 547,000 compared to their new numbers.

The LFPR was up from 62.5% to 62.6%.

Good News for the Market?

In the perverse stock market of these post-pandemic days, the market is looking for an excuse for the FED to cut interest rates so “Bad News is Good News” for the market.

The news wasn’t bad enough to spark a major rally but after falling initially, at around 10:30 AM the market turned around and rallied for the rest of the day taking it to slightly above the previous day’s close. So basically a giant “nothing burger”.

Current Unemployment Rate Chart

Seasonally Adjusted U3 Unemployment remains above the pre-COVID 2019 cyclical lows of 3.5%, but is approaching the yellow zone.

[Read more…] about June Employment Weak

May 2024 Employment- Good News is Bad News?

June 8, 2024 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for May on June 7^th,2024.

Employment / Unemployment

Seasonally Adjusted U-3 was 4.0% up from 3.9% in April
Unadjusted U-3 was 3.7% up from 3.5% in April
Unadjusted U-6 was 7.1% up from 6.9% in April
Labor Force Participation was 62.5% down from 62.7%
Unadjusted Employment rose from 158.001 million to 158.918 million
Next data release July 5^th 2024

Summary:
Total Employed increased in May, but Unemployment was also up.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 272,000 in May, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.0 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in several industries, led by health care; government; leisure and hospitality; and professional, scientific, and technical services.

Both the unemployment rate, at 4.0 percent, and the number of unemployed people, at 6.6 million, changed little in May. A year earlier, the jobless rate was 3.7 percent, and the number of unemployed people was 6.1 million.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 158.016 million for April which they adjusted slightly to 158.001 million in May.

They are currently reporting 158.918 million jobs for May which is actually an increase of 902,000 jobs based on their original numbers or 917,000 based on their new numbers for April. The LFPR was down from 62.7% to 62.5%.

The LFPR was down from 62.7% to 62.5%.

Bad News for the Market

In the perverse stock market of these post-pandemic days, the market is looking for an excuse for the FED to cut interest rates so “Bad News is Good News” for the market.

BUT… This month was the opposite of last month, the “experts” were only expecting 190,000 new jobs but the BLS reported 272,000 new jobs. So the market fell on the “good news”. However, had they focused on the Adjusted U3 number itself (like they did last month) which rose from 3.9% to 4.0% the market would have risen. This is the same percentage increase as last month which went from 3.8% in March to 3.9% in April. But last month that increase triggered a buying spree.

And all those extra jobs that the market was worried about? 43,000 of them were new government jobs! Hardly the sign of a booming economy. Mr. Market may have been fooled by the ADP report (which is released 2 days before the BLS report) that showed only 152,000 new jobs based on actual payroll records that ADP processes.

So, the real numbers don’t really matter, as Bob Prechter of Elliottwave International says, all that matters is finding an excuse to do what the market wants to do anyway.

Current Unemployment Rate Chart

Seasonally Adjusted U3 Unemployment remains above the pre-COVID 2019 cyclical lows of 3.5%, as well as above the lows made early in 2023. The unemployment rate is inching back toward the yellow zone.

April Unemployment- Bad News is Good News?

May 4, 2024 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for April on May 3^rd,2024.

Employment / Unemployment

Seasonally Adjusted U3: 3.9% up from 3.8% in March
Unadjusted U3: 3.5% down from 3.9% in March
Unadjusted U6: 6.9% down from 7.4% in March
Labor Force Participation was 62.7% unchanged
Unadjusted Employment rose from 157.213 million to 158.016 million
Next data release June 7^th 2024

Summary:
Total Employed increased in April, Unadjusted Unemployment was down, but Seasonally adjusted Unemployment increased.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 175,000 in April, and the unemployment rate changed little at 3.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains
occurred in health care, in social assistance, and in transportation and warehousing.

Both the unemployment rate, at 3.9 percent, and the number of unemployed people, at 6.5 million changed little in April. The unemployment rate has remained in a narrow range of 3.7 percent to 3.9 percent since August 2023.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 157.218 million for March which they adjusted slightly to 157.213 million.

They are currently reporting 158.016 million jobs for April which is actually an increase of 798,000 jobs compared to the original numbers or 803,000 based on their new numbers.

The LFPR was unchanged at 62.7%.

Bad News is Good News for the Market

In the perverse stock market of these post-pandemic days, the market is looking for an excuse for the FED to cut interest rates so “Bad News is Good News” for the market. So, with the Adjusted U3 rising, Mr. Market took that as “Bad News” and rallied.

BUT… was it really even bad news? Or was it Fake News?

First of all, it was only the “Adjusted” U3 that increased, the Unadjusted U3 was down from 3.9% to 3.5% and the Unadjusted U6 was down from 7.4% to 6.9%. So, unadjusted unemployment was good news, making it bad news for the market?

Typically we can think of the adjusted rate as a comparison to the average. So let’s look at what has happened in the UNADJUSTED U3 over the last few years.

Unadjusted U3

Date	March	April	Change
2024	3.9%	3.5%	-0.4%
2023	3.6%	3.1%	-0.5%
2022	3.8%	3.3%	-0.5%
2021	6.2%	5.7%	-0.5%

So, what do we see? Over the last few years, the unadjusted U-3 declined -0.5% from March to April so that is the “normal” behavior for March – April. But this year, it only declined -0.4%. So, in perverse Government logic, it increased by +0.1%. Thus, Adjusted U-3 went from 3.8% last month to 3.9% this month. But actual unemployment fell from 3.9% to 3.5% this is a decrease not an increase (just not quite as big a decrease as usual). But Mr. Market was looking for an excuse to rally, so any excuse will do.

As I’ve said many times, January unemployment is the worst and it gets progressively better until summer when all the kids get out of school and the workforce swells making it look like more people are unemployed.

Actually, there are some good reasons for the Seasonal adjustments see Adj vs Unadj. But in this case, looking at the Adjusted numbers compared to last month isn’t going to give you the picture the market was looking for. Looking at the chart below we can see that even at 3.9% unemployment is still in the green, so there is nothing there to convince the FED to start easing.

Current Unemployment Rate Chart

Seasonally Adjusted U3 Unemployment remains above the pre-COVID 2019 cyclical lows of 3.5%, as well as above the lows made early in 2023. But have retreated away from the “yellow zone.”

March 2024 Employment Higher Than Expected

April 6, 2024 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for March on April 5^th,2024.

Employment / Unemployment

Seasonally Adjusted U3: 3.8% down from 3.9% in February
Unadjusted U3: 3.9% down from 4.2% in February
Unadjusted U6: 7.4% down from 7.8% in February
Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.7% up from 62.5%
Employment: 157.218 million up from 156.559 million
Next data release May 3^rd 2024

Summary:
Total Employed increased in March, Labor Force Participation was up and Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment was down. Overall, an encouraging report. The market took this as a positive sign and rallied. The one concerning area is the continued increase in government employees as a percentage of overall employees.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 303,000 in March, and the unemployment rate changed little at 3.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, government, and construction…”

“Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for Blacks (6.4 percent) increased in March, while the rates for Asians (2.5 percent) and Hispanics (4.5 percent) decreased. The
jobless rates for adult men (3.3 percent), adult women (3.6 percent), teenagers (12.6 percent), and Whites (3.4 percent) showed little or no change over the month…”

“The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more), at 1.2 million, was little changed in March. The long-term unemployed accounted for 19.5 percent of all unemployed people. Both the labor force participation rate, at 62.7 percent, and the employment-population ratio, at 60.3 percent, were little changed in March. These measures showed little change over the year.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 156.555 million for February which they adjusted to 156.559 million (for a gain of 4,000 jobs). They are currently reporting 157.218 million jobs for March which is actually a gain of 663,000 jobs compared to their original numbers. But many of these jobs came from government. Theoretically, the government could make the unemployment numbers continue to look good by simply hiring all the unemployed workers.

Government Employment

As indicated above, Government Employment is rising rapidly sucking up available employees and keeping the unemployment rate low.

If we compare the above chart with the total Private Employment we can see that government employment is rising at a steeper rate than private employment. Initially, after COVID, private employment resumed sharply but then it leveled off some. But the government employment increase hasn’t leveled off.

Total government employment is 23.270 million compared to a total private employment of 134.863 million.

Current Unemployment Rate Chart

Seasonally Adjusted U3 Unemployment remains above the pre-COVID 2019 cyclical lows of 3.5%, as well as above the lows made early in 2023. But have retreated away from the “yellow zone.”

February Unemployment Increases

March 9, 2024 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for February on March 8^th,2024.

Employment / Unemployment

Seasonally Adjusted U3- 3.9% up from 3.7% in January
Unadjusted U3- 4.2% up from 4.1% in January
Unadjusted U6- 7.8% down from 8.0% in January
Labor Force Participation Rate 62.5% -unchanged
Employment 156.555 million up from 155.414 million

Summary:
Although employment rose, U3 Unemployment also rose in February in both adjusted and unadjusted rates. Unadjusted U6 fell, but adjusted U6 rose from 7.2% to 7.3%. Labor Force Participation was unchanged.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 275,000 in February, and the unemployment rate increased to 3.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, in government, in food services and drinking places, in social assistance, and in transportation and warehousing…”

“Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult women (3.5 percent) and teenagers (12.5 percent) increased over the month…”

“Among the unemployed, the number of permanent job losers increased by 174,000 to 1.7 million in February.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 155.626 million for January which they adjusted to 155.414 million (for a loss of 212,000 jobs). They are currently reporting 156.555 million jobs for February which is actually a gain of 929,000 jobs compared to their original numbers. But many of these jobs came from government, and social assistance plus food services and drinking places. These are not the type of jobs that build a robust economy. And permanent job losers are increasing.

Current Unemployment Rate Chart

Seasonally Adjusted U3 Unemployment is above the pre-COVID 2019 cyclical lows of 3.5% as well as above the lows made early in 2023. Current levels are nearing the beginning of the “Yellow Zone”.