September nonfarm payroll report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
- Unadjusted U-3 was Down from 5.3% to 4.6%
- Adjusted U-3 was Down from 5.2% to 4.8%
- Unadjusted U-6 was Down from 8.9% to 8.1%
- Labor Force Participation Down from 61.7% to 61.6%
- Unadjusted employment rose from 147.028 million to 147.682 million
Although these numbers are generally an improvement over last month (except Labor Force Participation), the market expected better. Bloomberg was projecting jobs growth of roughly 2.5x what we actually got.
According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:
Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 194,000 in September, and the unemployment rate fell by 0.4 percentage point to 4.8 percent.
Notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, in professional and business services, in retail trade, and in transportation and warehousing.
Employment declined in public education over the month.
As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs” from the “Current Population Survey (CPS)” rather than looking at the results reported by actual companies in their “Current Employment Statistics survey (CES).”
But looking at the CES report, we see…
Initially, the BLS reported 146.856 for August, which they adjusted to 147.028 million. For September, they are currently saying employment is 147.682 million.
This is an increase of 826,000 jobs based on their original estimates. Or an increase of 654,000 based on their updated numbers.
However, the market considers this a “much softer-than-expected September nonfarm payroll report” since Bloomberg was projecting 500,000 new jobs instead of the CPS Seasonally Adjusted 194,000.
The labor force participation rate dipped to 61.6% from August’s 61.7% rate, compared to forecasts of an increase to 61.8%.