BLS

January Employment Declines, Adjusted Unemployment Flat

February 3, 2024 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for January on February 2^nd,2024.

Employment / Unemployment

Adjusted U-3 was 3.7% unchanged since November
Unadjusted U-3 was 4.1% up from 3.5% in December
Unadjusted U-6 was 8.0% Up from 6.7% in November and 7.0% in December
Labor Force Participation was 62.5% unchanged from December but down from 62.8% in November
Unadjusted Employment fell from 158.261 million to 155.626 million

Summary:
Seasonally Adjusted Employment rose but actual employment decreased in January, Labor Force Participation was unchanged, Seasonal Adjustment indicates employment decline is normal for this time of year.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 353,000 in January, and the unemployment rate
remained at 3.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains
occurred in professional and business services, health care, retail trade, and social
assistance. Employment declined in the mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction
industry…”

“In January, the unemployment rate was 3.7 percent for the third month in a row, and
the number of unemployed people was little changed at 6.1 million…”

“The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more), at 1.3 million,
was little changed in January. The long-term unemployed accounted for 20.8 percent of all unemployed people.”

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 158.228 million for December which they adjusted to 158.261 million in January (for a gain of 33,000 jobs). They are currently reporting 155.626 million jobs for January which is actually a loss of -2,602,000 jobs compared to their original numbers. But January typically loses about this many jobs, so the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate stayed the same.

BLS Source

Current Unemployment Rate Chart

Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment is slightly above the pre-COVID 2019 cyclical lows of 3.5% as well as above the lows made early in 2023. Current levels are still within the “Green Zone”.

December Unemployment Unchanged

January 6, 2024 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for December on January 5^th,2024.

Employment Up- Unemployment Down

Adjusted U-3 was 3.7% unchanged from November
Unadjusted U-3 was 3.5% unchanged from November
Unadjusted U-6 was 7.0% Up from 6.7% in November
Labor Force Participation was 62.5% down from 62.8% in November
Unadjusted Employment fell from 158.395 million to 158.228 million

Summary:
Total Employed decreased in December, Labor Force Participation was down but Unemployment was unchanged.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 216,000 in December, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in government, health care, social assistance, and construction, while transportation and warehousing lost jobs…

The unemployment rate held at 3.7 percent in December, and the number of unemployed persons was essentially unchanged at 6.3 million. These measures are higher than a year earlier, when the jobless rate was 3.5 percent and the number of unemployed persons was 5.7 million.

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…Originally the BLS reported employment of 158.461 million for November which they adjusted to 158.395 million in December (for a loss of -66,000 jobs). They are currently reporting 158.228 million jobs for December which is actually a loss of -233,000 jobs compared to their original numbers. This in confirmed by the decline in the LFPR which fell from 62.8% to 62.5%.

BLS Source

Current Unemployment Rate Chart

Adjusted Unemployment is slightly above the pre-COVID 2019 cyclical lows of 3.5% as well as above the lows made earlier this year. Current levels are still within the “Green Zone”.

November 2023 Employment Situation

December 9, 2023 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for November on December 8^th,2023.

Employment Up- Unemployment Down

Adjusted U-3 was 3.7% down from 3.9% in October
Unadjusted U-3 was 3.5% down from 3.6% in October
Unadjusted U-6 was 6.7% down from 6.8% in October
Labor Force Participation was 62.7% down from 62.8% in October
Unadjusted Employment rose from 157.984 million to 158.461 million

Summary:
Total Employed increased in November, Unemployment was down, and Labor Force Participation was up.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 199,000 in November, and the unemployment rate
edged down to 3.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains
occurred in health care and government. Employment also increased in manufacturing, reflecting
the return of workers from a strike. Employment in retail trade declined…

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for teenagers (11.4 percent) edged down
in November. The jobless rates for adult men (3.7 percent), adult women (3.1 percent), Whites
(3.3 percent), Blacks (5.8 percent), Asians (3.5 percent), and Hispanics (4.6 percent) showed
little or no change over the month.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 157.984 million for October which uncharacteristically they didn’t adjust in November. They are currently reporting 158.461 million jobs for November which is actually an increase of 477,000 jobs. The LFPR rose from 62.7 to 62.8%.

BLS Source

Current Unemployment Rate Chart

Adjusted Unemployment is slightly above the pre-COVID 2019 cyclical lows of 3.5% as well as above the lows made earlier this year. Current levels are still within the “Green Zone”.

October 2023 Unemployment by State

November 17, 2023 by Tim McMahon

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that: “Unemployment rates were higher in October in 26 states and stable in 24 states and the District of Columbia, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Twenty-one states had jobless rate decreases from a year earlier, 12 states and the District had increases, and 17 states had little change. The national unemployment rate, 3.9 percent, changed little both over the month and over the year.”

In the following chart, bubble size indicates the number of unemployed. As we can see the largest number of unemployed is the red California bubble followed by the purple Texas bubble.

The vertical axis indicates the percent change from a year ago. So, New Jersey has the biggest change from a year ago, followed by California and D.C. while the majority of states are below the zero line (indicating lower unemployment than a year ago). Maryland is the most improved followed by Oregon.

The horizontal axis indicates the current unemployment rate (in percent). Puerto Rico has the highest unemployment rate by far, followed by Nevada, D.C., California, New Jersey, and Illinois.

Source: BLS

Unemployment Report for October 2023

November 3, 2023 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for October on November 3^rd,2023.

Unadjusted U3 Unemployment Unchanged

Adjusted U-3 was 3.9% up from 3.8% in September
Unadjusted U-3 was 3.6% unchanged
Unadjusted U-6 was 6.8% up from 6.7%
Labor Force Participation was 62.7% down from 62.8% in September
Unadjusted Employment rose from 156.918 to 157.984 million

Summary:
Total Employed increased in October, Unemployment was little changed, and Labor Force Participation was down slightly.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 150,000 in October, and the unemployment rate
changed little at 3.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains
occurred in health care, government, and social assistance. Employment declined in manufacturing
due to strike activity…

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (3.7 percent), adult women
(3.3 percent), teenagers (13.2 percent), Whites (3.5 percent), Blacks (5.8 percent), Asians (3.1
percent), and Hispanics (4.8 percent) showed little change in October.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 157.001 million for September which they adjusted to 156.918 million. So, they subtracted 83,000 jobs for September. They are currently reporting 157.984 million jobs for October which is actually an increase of 983,000 jobs based on their original estimates or an increase of 1,066,000 based on their updated numbers. But despite a supposed million plus new jobs the unemployment rate is virtually unchanged (and LFPR fell)?

BLS Source

Current Unemployment Rate Chart

Adjusted Unemployment is slightly above the pre-COVID 2019 cyclical lows of 3.5% as well as above the lows made earlier this year. Current levels are still within the “Green Zone”.

October Unemployment Report for September 2023

October 6, 2023 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for September on October 6^th,2023.

Adjusted U3 Unemployment Unchanged

Adjusted U-3 was 3.8% unchanged from August
Unadjusted U-3 was 3.6% down from 3.9%
Unadjusted U-6 was 6.7% down from 7.2%
Labor Force Participation was 62.8% unchanged
Unadjusted Employment rose from 156.416 to 157.001 million

Summary:
Despite the fact that the Seasonally Adjusted U3 unemployment rate was unchanged,
the UNADJUSTED U3 Rate was down… as is typical for this time of year.
Total Employed increased from 156.416 million in August to 157.001 million in September.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 336,000 in September, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality; government; health care; professional, scientific, and technical services; and social assistance…

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (3.8 percent), adult women (3.1 percent), teenagers (11.6 percent), Whites (3.4 percent), Blacks (5.7 percent), Asians (2.8 percent), and Hispanics (4.6 percent) showed little or no change in September.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 156.302 million for August which they adjusted to 156.416 million. So they added 114,000 jobs for August. They are currently reporting 157.001 million jobs for September which is actually an increase of 699,000 jobs based on their original estimates or an increase of 585,000 based on their updated numbers.

BLS Source

Current Employment Rate Chart

Adjusted Unemployment is slightly above the pre-COVID 2019 cyclical lows of 3.5% as well as above the lows made earlier this year. Current levels are still within the “Green Zone”.

August 2023 Unemployment Report

September 2, 2023 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for August on September 1^st2023.

August Unemployment Up Slightly

Adjusted U-3 was 3.8% up from 3.5%
Unadjusted U-3 was 3.9% up from 3.8%
Unadjusted U-6 was 7.2% up from 7.1%
Labor Force Participation was 62.8% up from 62.6%
Unadjusted Employment rose from 156.034 to 156.302 million

Summary:
Despite the fact that the adjusted U3 unemployment rate was up,
slightly more people were working in August than in July.
Total Employed went up from 156.034 million in July to 156.302 million in August.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 187,000 in August, and the unemployment rate rose to 3.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in health care, leisure and hospitality, social assistance, and construction. Employment in transportation and warehousing declined.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 155.126 million for July which they adjusted to 156.034 million. So they subtracted 92,000 jobs for July. They are currently reporting 156.302 million jobs for August which is actually an increase of 176,000 jobs based on their original estimates or an increase of 268,000 based on their updated numbers.

BLS Source

Current Employment Rate Chart

Adjusted Unemployment is slightly above the pre-COVID 2019 cyclical lows of 3.5%. Current levels are still within the “Green Zone”.

July 2023 Unemployment Down

August 5, 2023 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for July on August 4^th2023.

Adjusted Unemployment down Slightly

Adjusted U-3 was 3.5% down from 3.6%
Unadjusted U-3 was 3.8% unchanged
Unadjusted U-6 was 7.1% down from 7.2%
Labor Force Participation unchanged at 62.6%
Unadjusted Employment fell from 156.945 to 156.126 million

Summary:
Despite the fact that the adjusted U3 unemployment rate was down, and they claim more people were working
there were actually fewer people working in July than in June.
Total Employed went down from 156.945 million in June to only 156.126 million in July.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 187,000 in July, and the unemployment rate changed little at 3.5 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, social assistance, financial activities, and wholesale trade.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Employment Statistics Program (Formerly the Establishment Survey report) we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 155.963 million for June, which they adjusted to 156.945 million. So they subtracted 18,000 jobs for June. They are reporting 156.126 million jobs for July which is actually a decrease of 837,000 jobs based on their original estimates or a decrease of 819,000 based on their updated numbers.

BLS Source

Current Employment Rate Chart

Adjusted Unemployment is at the pre-COVID 2019 cyclical lows of 3.5%. We’ve been saying that “typically, March or April has one of the lowest unemployment rates for the year, so we could see a slight increase from here without an actual deterioration of the labor market.” And that is what happened before dropping slightly in July. Current levels are still within the “Green Zone”.

June 2023 Employment at All-Time High

July 8, 2023 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for June on July 7^th2023.

Adjusted Unemployment down Slightly

Adjusted U-3 was 3.6% down from 3.7%
Unadjusted U-3 was 3.8% up from 3.4%
Unadjusted U-6 was 7.2% Up from 6.4%
Labor Force Participation unchanged at 62.6%
Unadjusted Employment rose from 156.266 to 156.963 million

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 209,000 in June, and the unemployment rate changed little at 3.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in government, health care, social assistance, and construction… Both the unemployment rate, at 3.6 percent, and the number of unemployed persons, at 6.0 million, changed little in June. The unemployment rate has ranged from 3.4 percent to 3.7 percent since March 2022.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 156.306 million for May which they adjusted to 156.266 million. So, they subtracted 40,000 jobs for May. They are now reporting 156.963 million jobs for June which is actually an increase of 657,000 jobs based on their original estimates or an increase of 697,000 based on their updated numbers.

Current Employment Rate Chart

Adjusted Unemployment is slightly above the pre-COVID 2019 cyclical lows of 3.5%. We’ve been saying that “typically, March or April has one of the lowest unemployment rates for the year, so we could see a slight increase from here without an actual deterioration of the labor market.” And that is precisely what is happening. Current levels are still within the “Green Zone”.

Yet Another Month of Questionable Federal Jobs Data as 310,000 Fewer People Report Having Jobs

June 5, 2023 by Ryan McMaken

The Bureau of Labor Statistic (BLS) released new jobs data on Friday. According to the report, seasonally adjusted total nonfarm jobs rose 339,000 jobs in May, well above forecasts. The unemployment rate rose slightly from 3.4 percent to 3.7 percent (month over month).

Headlines in the mainstream media declared the headline employment data to be evidence of very strong job growth and economic success. According to Politico, the latest jobs numbers are evidence of a “remarkable resilience of President Joe Biden’s economy” and NPR declared the job market to be “sizzling hot.”

Yet, May appears to be yet another month in which it seems nearly every economic indicator except the payroll jobs data points to an economic slowdown. The Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing index is in recession territory. The Empire State Manufacturing Survey is, too. The Leading Indicators index keeps looking worse. The yield curve points to recession. Even Federal Reserve staffers, who generally take an implausibly rosy view of the economy, predict recession in 2023. Individual bankruptcy filings were up 23 percent in May. Temp jobs were down, year-over-year, which often indicates approaching recession.

So how do we square all this with yet another jobs report that claims to tell us that the job market is the best it’s been in decades?

Well, a lot of the jobs data isn’t actually very good. The headlines have focused on the so-called Establishment Survey which is a survey of employers and shows only the number of positions, not the number of employed persons. The Household survey, on the other hand, surveys people.

The Household survey over the past two years has not shown nearly as much job growth as the Establishment Survey.

Specifically, we find that since 2022, the Establishment Survey and the Household Survey have ceased to follow a similar trend, with a sizable gap forming between the two surveys. In fact, over the past two years, the two surveys show a gap of 2.2 million:

Moreover, in May, while the Establishment Survey showed a gain of 339,000 jobs month-over-month, the Household Survey showed a loss of 310,000 employed persons. That’s a gap of more than 600,000. Looking at month-to-month changes, we can also see how the two surveys have diverged since April 2022. [Read more…] about Yet Another Month of Questionable Federal Jobs Data as 310,000 Fewer People Report Having Jobs