BLS

June 2022 BLS Jobs Report- Recession Indicators?

July 9, 2022 by Tim McMahon

Early Indicators of possible recession appeared in the June jobs report, but you have to look closely to find them in reports by the mainstream media.

Adjusted U-3 was Unchanged at 3.6%
Unadjusted U-3 was Up from 3.4% to 3.8%
Unadjusted U-6 was Up from 6.7% to 7.0%
Unadjusted Employment rose from 150.964 to 151.773 million
Average Weekly Wages Still Rising

Early Warning Negative Indicators

Early Indicators of a possible recession

Labor Force Participation Down from 62.3% to 62.2%
Upturn in Uneducated Unemployment
Rising Unemployment among the newly unemployed
Average Weekly Hours among manufacturing workers falling

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 372,000 in June, and the unemployment rate remained at 3.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.
Notable job gains occurred in professional and business services, leisure and hospitality, and health care.

The unemployment rate was 3.6 percent for the fourth month in a row, and the number of unemployed persons was essentially unchanged at 5.9 million in June. These measures are little different from their values in February 2020 (3.5 percent and 5.7 million, respectively), prior to the coronavirus (COVID19) pandemic.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs” from the “Household Survey” rather than looking at the results reported by actual companies in the BLS “Establishment Survey.”

But looking at the Establishment Survey report, we see…
Initially, the BLS reported employment of 151.773 million for May, which they adjusted to 151.748 million. So 25,000 jobs disappeared in May. They are reporting 152.692 million jobs for June, which is an increase of 919,000 based on their original estimates or an increase of 944,000 based on their updated numbers.

According to CNN:

The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, released on Wednesday, showed there were 11.3 million job openings in May, or 1.9 positions for every job seeker, and historically low levels of layoffs… But, the BLS reported that initial jobless claims for the week ending July 2 totaled 235,000, an increase of 4,000 from the prior week’s reading and the highest level since mid-January… New job cuts data released Thursday by Challenger, Gray & Christmas revealed that US employers announced 32,517 layoffs in June, a 58.8% increase from the same month last year, and the highest monthly total since February 2021.

According to the Washington Post:

The strong job growth keeps pressure on the Fed to continue raising interest rates when it meets later this month. After years of keeping interest rates at or near zero, the central bank has so far hiked rates three times this year, by a total of 1.5 percentage points, in the hope of slowing the economy just enough to curb inflation, which is at 40-year highs, without pushing it into a deep recession.

Recession Ahead?

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta estimated that the economy shrank by 1.2 percent in the second quarter, which would put the U.S. in a recession by one common definition i.e. two consecutive quarters of economic contraction. But the National Bureau of Economic Research, the nonprofit organization that is the official arbiter of recessions, also includes unemployment in their calculations, so according to their definition, there is no recession yet.

Employment is almost back to 2019 peak levels (although the civilian population is about 4 million higher now).

May Employment Up – Unemployment Unchanged

June 4, 2022 by Tim McMahon

May 2022 Employment — Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Jobs Report

Adjusted U-3 was Unchanged at 3.6%
Unadjusted U-3 was Up from 3.3% to 3.4%
Unadjusted U-6 was Up from 6.6% to 6.7%
Labor Force Participation Up from 62.2% to 62.3%
Unadjusted Employment rose from 150.964 to 151.773 million

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 390,000 in May, and the unemployment rate remained at 3.6 percent. Notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, in professional and business services, and in transportation and warehousing. Employment in retail trade declined. Nonfarm employment is down by 822,000, or 0.5 percent, from its February 2020 level before the onset of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.
In May, employment growth continued in leisure and hospitality (+84,000)… Employment in professional and business services increased by 75,000 in May… Transportation and warehousing added 47,000 jobs…”
You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs” from the “Household Survey” rather than looking at the results reported by actual companies in the BLS “Establishment Survey”

But looking at the Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 150.938 million for April which they adjusted to 150.964 million. So they added 26,000 jobs disappeared for April. They are reporting 151.773 million jobs for May which is actually an increase of 835,000 jobs based on their original estimates or an increase of 809,000 based on their updated numbers.

Surprisingly, Retail LOST -60,700 jobs.

According to Trading Economics:
The US unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.6 percent in May of 2022, the same as in the previous two months, remaining the lowest since February 2020 and compared with market expectations of 3.5 percent. The number of unemployed people increased by 9 thousand to 5.950 million, while employment levels rose by 321 thousand to 158.426 million. Meanwhile, the labor force participation rate edged up to 62.3 percent in May from a 3-month low of 62.2 percent in April.

Stroudsburg PA News headline says “Lowest Unemployment Rate since 1969” … Umm No! Not really… the article text backtracks a little adding the word “about” saying… “about the lowest it has been since 1969.” I suppose that is “almost true” if you disregard the 4 months in 2019 and 2020 when it was lower (i.e. 3.5%) and 3.6% is almost 3.4%. I guess that is what passes for journalism these days.

April Unemployment Holds Steady

May 7, 2022 by Tim McMahon

April 2022 Employment — Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Jobs Report

Adjusted U-3 was Unchanged at 3.6%
Unadjusted U-3 was Down from 3.8% to 3.3%
Unadjusted U-6 was Down from 7.1% to 6.6%
Labor Force Participation Down from 62.4% to 62.2%
Unadjusted Employment rose from 149. 912 to 150.938 million

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 428,000 in April, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.6 percent. Job growth was widespread, led by gains in leisure and hospitality, in manufacturing, and in transportation and warehousing.

Nonfarm employment is down by 1.2 million, or 0.8 percent, from its February 2020 level before the onset of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.

In April, employment growth continued in leisure and hospitality (+78,000), with gains in food services and drinking places (+44,000) and accommodation (+22,000). Employment in leisure and hospitality is down by 1.4 million, or 8.5 percent, from its February 2020 level.”

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs” from the “Household Survey” rather than looking at the results reported by actual companies in the BLS “Establishment Survey”

Looking at the Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 149.938 million for March which they adjusted to 149.912 million. So 26,000 jobs disappeared for March. They are reporting 150.938 million jobs for April which is actually an increase of exactly 1,000,000 jobs based on their original estimates or an increase of 1,026,000 based on their updated numbers.

According to Jeffrey Tucker at Gilder’s Daily Prophecy “The jobs report this morning didn’t look half bad on the surface… The trouble was in the footnotes: The U.S. labor force shrank by 363,000 people in April from a month earlier… The labor force participation rate… ticked down to 62.2% in April from 62.4% in March.

So the dropout economy is getting worse, not better, rendering these unemployment numbers rather pointless… Women with kids have dropped out and child care is too expensive. Many men just moved home to mom and dad and are happy to live off savings and look forward to going into debt. Plus, the demoralization of the workforce after lockdowns has drained American ambition… In addition, wage growth is slowing, a fact which might cheer the Fed, but is bad news for workers because it means the purchasing power of their wages will fall further, after having endured a devastating hit over the last six months.

A former Fed official went public with a very obvious statement, namely that the federal funds rate needs to be 3.5% in order to even begin to make a dent in inflation.
How does Richard Clarida know this? It’s not rocket science: short-term rates need to be positive in real terms rather than negative. That means 3.5%, yes, but more likely double or triple that. The Fed simply won’t go there. The Fed’s theory is that it can put out the house fire by carefully spraying a bit of water here and there in a way that doesn’t cause shock and alarm.”

March 2022 Unemployment Not as Low as Expected

April 2, 2022 by Tim McMahon

March 2022 Unemployment Report Doesn’t Beat Expert’s Predictions

Adjusted U-3 was Down from 3.8% to 3.6%
Unadjusted U-3 was Down from 4.1% to 3.8%
Unadjusted U-6 was Down from 7.6% to 7.1%
Labor Force Participation Up from 62.3% to 62.4%
Unadjusted Employment rose from 149.144 million to 149. 938 million

March 2022 Unemployment report:

Although MSNBC is touting it as a win, they admit that experts predicted 490,000 new jobs, but according to the BLS, we only got 431,000, so they could have just as easily spun this as a negative report. Instead, MSNBC gushes about the “new jobs” but then goes on to say, “the U.S. economy has now gained back roughly 93 percent of its pandemic job losses”.

As we’ve consistently pointed out, we are still below peak pre-covid employment levels. Although MSNBC says, “So far in 2022, the economy has created 1.69 million jobs”… we’re still below December 2021 levels… hmm I guess it depends on how you look at it. Unlike what you’d expect from a pandemic… since Covid started the U.S. population is up by 3.8 million, so we need to have more jobs just to be equal. In other words, population inflation does to jobs what monetary inflation does to the cost of living.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 431,000 in March, and the unemployment rate declined by 0.2 percentage points to 3.6 percent. Notable job gains continued in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, retail trade, and manufacturing.

Job growth averaged 562,000 per month in the first quarter of 2022, the same as the average monthly gain for 2021. However, Employment is down by 1.6 million, or 1.0 percent, from its February 2020 level before the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.”

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs” from the “Current Population Survey (CPS)” rather than looking at the results reported by actual companies in the BLS “Current Employment Statistics survey (CES)”.

But looking at the CES report, we see…
Initially, the BLS reported Employment of 148.964 million for February, which they adjusted to 149.144 million. So 18,000 jobs appeared for February. They are saying 149.938 million jobs for March, which is an increase of 974,000 jobs based on their original estimates or an increase of 794,000 based on their updated numbers.

February Employment / Unemployment Report

March 4, 2022 by Tim McMahon

February 2022 Unemployment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)

Adjusted U-3 was Down from 4.0% to 3.8%
Unadjusted U-3 was Down from 4.4% to 4.1%
Unadjusted U-6 was Down from 7.9% to 7.6%
Labor Force Participation Up from 62.2% 62.3%
Unadjusted Employment rose from 147. 510 million to 148. 964 million

February 2022 Unemployment report:

AP says: Strong Job Growth Points to COVID’s Fading Grip on Economy “Employers added a robust 678,000 jobs in February, the largest monthly total since July, the Labor Department reported Friday.”

CNBC says: U.S. unemployment rate falls in February, but ticks up for Black women “The unemployment rate for Black women ticked up to 6.1% in February from 5.8% in the previous month.”

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 678,000 in February, and the unemployment rate edged down to 3.8 percent. Employment growth was widespread, led by gains in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, health care, and construction. Employment is down by 2.1 million, or 1.4 percent, from its level before the onset of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic in February 2020.

In February, employment growth continued in leisure and hospitality (+179,000) with job gains in food services and drinking places (+124,000) and accommodation (+28,000). “

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs” from the “Current Population Survey (CPS)” rather than looking at the results reported by actual companies in their “Current Employment Statistics survey (CES)”

But looking at the CES report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 147.525 million for January which they adjusted to 147.510 million. So 15,000 jobs disappeared for January. But they are reporting 148.964 million jobs for February which is actually an increase of 1,439,000 jobs based on their original estimates or an increase of 1,454,000 based on their updated numbers.

January 2022 Unemployment Up not DOWN as Reported

February 5, 2022 by Tim McMahon

January 2022 Unemployment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)

Adjusted U-3 was UP from 3.9% to 4.0%
Unadjusted U-3 was Up from 3.7% to 4.4%
Unadjusted U-6 was Up from 7.2% to 7.9%
Labor Force Participation Up from 61.9% 62.2%
Unadjusted Employment fell from 150.349 million to 147. 525 million

January 2022 Unemployment report: Establishment news media chose to put a positive spin on this month’s Jobs report focusing on the Bureau of Labor Statistics 467,000 jobs number. U.S. News says, US Economy Defies Omicron and Adds 467,000 Jobs in January. Long-time readers of this site will remember that this is a Seasonally Adjusted number based on the “Current Population Survey (CPS)” rather than looking at the results reported by actual companies in their “Current Employment Statistics survey (CES)”. As we explain below, more people were NOT employed in January than in December all that the adjusted number indicates is that fewer people lost their jobs in January than in a typical January. In actuality, there were 2.6 million fewer employed in January 2022 than in December 2021 and even the Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment rate INCREASED from 3.9% to 4.0% while UNADJUSTED unemployment increased even more.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 467,000 in January, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 4.0 percent. Employment growth continued in leisure and hospitality, in professional and business services, in retail trade, and in transportation and warehousing. Employment has increased by 19.1 million since April 2020 but is down by 2.9 million, or 1.9 percent, from its level before the onset of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic in February 2020. Monthly job growth averaged 555,000 in 2021.”

But looking at the CES report we see…
Originally the BLS reported 150.170 million for December which they adjusted to 150.349 million. For January they are reporting 147.525 million.
which is actually a decrease of 2,645,000 jobs based on their original estimates or a decrease of 2,824,000 based on their updated numbers. Typically January loses a significant number of jobs due to post-holiday layoffs so January employment decreases are not that unusual. But if we look at the adjusted numbers we see that even the seasonally adjusted unemployment was up suggesting that the layoff was a bit worse than usual.

November Jobs Up But…

December 4, 2021 by Tim McMahon

November 2021 Unemployment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)

Unadjusted U-3 was Down from 4.3% to 3.9%
Adjusted U-3 was Down from 4.6% to 4.2%
Unadjusted U-6 was Down from 7.7% to 7.4%
Labor Force Participation Up 61.6% to 61.8%
Unadjusted employment rose from 149.226 million to 150.004 million

Although November’s job numbers are generally an improvement over October, Bloomberg called them”weird” and “the smallest jobs gain this year”. This jobs report is so weird because retail employment is DOWN by -20,400 in a month, known for increased retail employment. Market commentators are also blaming the Jobs report for Friday’s market drop.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 210,000 in November, and the unemployment rate fell by 0.4 percentage point to 4.2 percent. Notable job gains occurred in professional and business services, transportation and warehousing, construction, and manufacturing. Employment in retail trade declined over the month.”

But looking at the CES report, we see…
Initially, the BLS reported 149.217 million for October, which they adjusted to 149.226 million. For November, they are reporting 150.004 million,
which is an increase of 787,000 jobs based on their original estimates or an increase of 778,000 based on their updated numbers.

October 2021 Unemployment Down as Expected

November 6, 2021 by Tim McMahon

October 2021 Unemployment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)

Unadjusted U-3 was Down from 4.6% to 4.3%
Adjusted U-3 was Down from 4.8% to 4.6%
Unadjusted U-6 was Down from 8.1% to 7.7%
Labor Force Participation unchanged at 61.6%
Unadjusted employment rose from 147.659 million to 149.217 million

These numbers are generally an improvement over last month (except Labor Force Participation), in line with market expectations. Typically October and November are up months for employment with Seasonal hiring for the Holidays.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 531,000 in October, and the unemployment rate edged down by 0.2 percentage point to 4.6 percent.
Job growth was widespread, with notable job gains in leisure and hospitality, in professional and business services, in manufacturing,
and in transportation and warehousing. Employment declined in public education over the month.”

But looking at the CES report we see…
Originally the BLS reported 147.682 for September which they adjusted to 147.659 million. For October they are currently saying employment is 149.217 million.
which is actually an increase of 1,535,000 jobs based on their original estimates or an increase of 1,558,000 based on their updated numbers.

September Unemployment Disappointing

October 9, 2021 by Tim McMahon

September nonfarm payroll report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)

Unadjusted U-3 was Down from 5.3% to 4.6%
Adjusted U-3 was Down from 5.2% to 4.8%
Unadjusted U-6 was Down from 8.9% to 8.1%
Labor Force Participation Down from 61.7% to 61.6%
Unadjusted employment rose from 147.028 million to 147.682 million

Although these numbers are generally an improvement over last month (except Labor Force Participation), the market expected better. Bloomberg was projecting jobs growth of roughly 2.5x what we actually got.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 194,000 in September, and the unemployment rate fell by 0.4 percentage point to 4.8 percent.
Notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, in professional and business services, in retail trade, and in transportation and warehousing.
Employment declined in public education over the month.

But looking at the CES report, we see…
Initially, the BLS reported 146.856 for August, which they adjusted to 147.028 million. For September, they are currently saying employment is 147.682 million.
This is an increase of 826,000 jobs based on their original estimates. Or an increase of 654,000 based on their updated numbers.

However, the market considers this a “much softer-than-expected September nonfarm payroll report” since Bloomberg was projecting 500,000 new jobs instead of the CPS Seasonally Adjusted 194,000.

The labor force participation rate dipped to 61.6% from August’s 61.7% rate, compared to forecasts of an increase to 61.8%.

August Unemployment Improves as Pandemic Benefits Expire

September 4, 2021 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their employment / unemployment report for August.

Unadjusted U-3 was Down from 5.7% to 5.3%
Adjusted U-3 was Down from 5.4% to 5.2%
Unadjusted U-6 was Down from 9.6% to 8.9%
Labor Force Participation unchanged at 61.7%
Unadjusted Employment rose from 146.544 million to 146.856 million

The Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation program, which extends unemployment benefits by up to 24 weeks for those who have exhausted regular unemployment aid, and the $300 weekly supplement to state unemployment benefits, are due to expire on September 6. This may be the motivation some unemployed individuals needed to get back to work. Many have complained that the government assistance was paying certain people at the lower end of the payscale more to stay home than they could earn by going to work.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 235,000 in August, and the unemployment rate declined by 0.2 percentage point to 5.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. So far this year, monthly job growth has averaged 586,000. In August, notable job gains occurred in professional and business services, transportation and warehousing, private education, manufacturing, and other services. Employment in retail trade declined over the month.

But looking at the CES report we see…

Originally the BLS reported 146.470 for July which they adjusted to 146.544 million. For August they are currently saying employment is 146.856 million which is actually an increase of 386,000 jobs based on their original estimates or an increase of 312,000 based on their updated numbers.