Tim McMahon, Editor of UnemploymentData.com

My grandfather lived through the Hyperinflation in Weimar, Germany--to say he was an original “gold bug” would be an understatement. I began reading his “hard money” newsletters at the age of 16 and the dividends from gold stocks helped put me through college. I began publishing the Financial Trend Forecaster paper newsletter in 1995 upon the death of James Moore editor of Your Window into the Future and the creator of the Moore Inflation Predictor©. FTF specializes in trends in the stock market, gold, inflation and bonds. In January of 2003, I began publishing InflationData.com to specialize in all forms of information about the nature of Inflation. In 2009, we added Elliott Wave University to help teach you the principles of Elliott Wave analysis. In January 2013, we began publishing OptioMoney. Connect with Tim on Google+.

MSN Picks Up Our Theme of “The Real Unemployment Rate”

August 5, 2016 by Tim McMahon

The Bureau of Labor Statistics published the July Employment/Unemployment numbers on August 5^th .

The seasonally adjusted U-3 (the commonly quoted unemployment rate) was unchanged at 4.9%.
BLS’ Unadjusted U-3 was also unchanged at 5.1%.
BLS’ Unadjusted U-6 increased 0.2% to 10.1%
Gallup’s unadjusted U-3 fell from 5.4% to join the BLS’ 5.1%.
Gallup’s U-6 fell from 13.4% to 12.7% to remain 2.6% higher than the BLS’ U-6.

Meanwhile, MSN’s CNBC decided to enter the fray and help “clarify” the confusing employment situation with an article entitled “Now that you know the official jobs number, here’s the real unemployment rate”. Unfortunately, this article may do more to confuse than to clarify.

In the article author Nicholas Wells delves into the possibility that the U-3 is not as important as the U-6… which [Read more…] about MSN Picks Up Our Theme of “The Real Unemployment Rate”

Employment and Unemployment Rates Jump in June???

July 8, 2016 by Tim McMahon

On Friday July 8th, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their newest unemployment data for June 2016. According to the BLS, the current “Seasonally Adjusted” Unemployment Rate is 4.9% up from 4.7% for May. The current “Unadjusted” rate is 5.1% up from 4.5% in May.

In an interesting twist, although total non-farm payroll employment increased by 287,000 in June, the unemployment rate also rose to 4.9 percent from 4.7%. [Read more…] about Employment and Unemployment Rates Jump in June???

Business Process Outsourcing (Infographic)

June 25, 2016 by Tim McMahon

What is Business Process Outsourcing?

Business process outsourcing (BPO) is the external contracting of services such as data management, accounting and creative design with a service provider. In contrast, manufacturing outsourcing involves businesses arranging for production of goods through a contract manufacturer.

This straightforward distinction can be more important than it might seem at first glance — while only companies engaged in producing goods will periodically use manufacturing outsourcing, all organizations in the private, public and government sectors can benefit from outsourcing various services to an external provider. For example, businesses of all sizes have functions like payroll and human resources that often require expert help from outside the organization.

Outsourcing is becoming more common as companies [Read more…] about Business Process Outsourcing (Infographic)

6 Great Jobs for Left-Brained People

June 6, 2016 by Tim McMahon

The left brain-right brain theory began with the work of 1981 Nobel Prize winner Roger W. Sperry. Generally speaking, the left side of the brain tends to control many aspects of language, logic, learning and information processing. People who are left brain dominant tend to be more analytical in their thinking and typically perform well academically.

When a person is Right Brain Dominant, they are thought of as dreamers, artists, and musicians since the right side of the brain tends to handle spatial information and visual comprehension. People characterized as being right-brained prefer visual instructions with examples, can memorize music more easily, are more spontaneous and tend to solve problems more intuitively.

Left brained people are often considered smart, because modern education is generally geared toward their strengths such as memorizing information and logic. But this does not actually make them “smarter” it simply allows them to succeed academically easier than their right brained counterparts. They are however able to use their abilities to solve complex problems and these strengths make certain jobs perfect for the left-brained individual. Here are six, high-paying jobs, which would probably suit a left-brained person. [Read more…] about 6 Great Jobs for Left-Brained People

May’s “Terrible” Jobs Report

June 4, 2016 by Tim McMahon

On June 3^rd the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its “surprisingly weak” monthly Employment Report which the media is touting as “terrible”. According to the media “only 38,000 jobs were created” in the month of May. Although experts were predicting an increase two or three times as large.

This was the smallest gain since September 2010 partially fueled by the Verizon strike of 34,000 but even with that extra 34,000 payrolls would have increased by only 72,000. Fed Chair Janet Yellen has said monthly gains of roughly 100,000 jobs are needed to keep up with growth in the work-age population.

However, like most Government statistics it is only half the story. First of all, the numbers quoted are

Six Careers for Natural Leaders

May 18, 2016 by Tim McMahon

When choosing a career, it is important that you consider both your interests and strengths. Certain careers are better suited toward people that are naturally strong leaders. If you take the time and consideration to choose carefully, you will be more likely to enjoy what you do and excel at it.

Nurse

We often think of the primary characteristic of a nurse to be compassion but although it may not be obvious at first glance, it is highly beneficial for nurses to also be good leaders, have strong personalities and excellent organizational skills. They often have to keep track of many patients and pay close attention to detail. They have to be effective communicators with patients, their families, doctors, and other supporting staff. And on occasion they need to be forceful in order to ensure the best care for their patients.

Teacher

Teachers are charged with [Read more…] about Six Careers for Natural Leaders

Becoming a Good Mentor

May 10, 2016 by Tim McMahon

Serving as a mentor in business can be rewarding and valuable for both you and the person to whom you are providing this service. Becoming a good mentor requires thinking about the qualities that have enabled you to be successful in business in the first place. If you are looking to lead others through the path you followed, research your own success and use these skills to offer good advice and become respected in your community.

Leadership

Skilled leaders draw followers and are often sought as mentors. They understand the need to show both confidence and compassion when making decisions. They are not above doing tasks themselves, but are also confident enough to delegate responsibility and not micromanage. Effective leaders understand the benefit of hiring team members who shore up their strengths and are not threatened by such individuals. Demonstrating this balance of strength and humility to mentees is incredibly valuable. If you are serious about strengthening these skills before offering advice, see if getting a master in leadership online or from a local course could help develop and hone these skills.

Accountability

As a mentor, it is important to demonstrate both a willingness to accept responsibility for your mistakes and the mistakes of your direct reports as well as an ability to develop solutions to avoid similar future occurrences. In addition, providing the necessary training and tools for your team members to do their jobs well is critically important.

Building Relationships

Developing a strong and trusting relationship with individuals being mentored as well as colleagues, superiors, and subordinates is significant in the business world. A successful leader and mentor will provide a safe and trusting environment in which to ask any questions comfortably and learn from the discussion. A strong mentor will truly listen with interest, empathy and concern for the individual and provide information and guidance based on experience. The mentor will display consistent patience.

Be Current

Be current with the latest industry trends, staff development concepts, tools, and technology. A true mentor wants to pass on their wisdom and knowledge, but recognizes the importance of consistently keeping their skill set refined and current.

Diversity is

It is not necessary to mentor someone who is of the same race, gender, socioeconomic background, or educational history. While it’s important for them to relate to each other, diversity actually provides greater perspective and insight. A mentor is like a parent, teacher, and trainer all rolled into one. Lines are blurred, and this should be a more intimate, deeper relationship. This is not contingent on a grade, a promotion, or a familial obligation. An individual being mentored should walk away from the experience feeling more business savvy, confident, and have an enhanced tool kit with which to navigate the business world.

Becoming a business mentor is a great opportunity. If you’ve been sought for advice before, use your current skills and hone the ones you lack to become a more permanent fixture in your industry and a respected mentor to others.

BLS Monthly Employment Report for April

May 6, 2016 by Tim McMahon

The US economy added 160,000 “seasonally adjusted” jobs in April, the lowest figure in the last seven months. The adjusted U-3 unemployment rate remained steady at 5%. The Unadjusted U-3 fell to 4.7% while the Unadjusted U-6 fell to 9.3% from 9.9% last month.
On a seasonally adjusted basis employment has fallen while on a non-adjusted basis the actual number of non-farm employed has increased from 142.887 Million to 143.944 million for a net increase of 1,057,000 jobs but since April traditionally sees a large increase in seasonal workers the seasonally adjusted number says that we were only 160,000 jobs better than what we would expect if there were zero jobs growth.

Labor Force Participation Rate

The Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) is the percentage of the Labor Force that is currently either looking for a job or actually has one. So even though it sounds like it is talking about how many people are working it actually is the percentage who “want to work”. As of April this stands at 62.8%. This rate has been steadily falling for a number of years and has reached levels not seen since the 1970’s.

Since the Bureau of Labor Statistics measures unemployment as the percentage of the labor force that can’t find work as people stop looking for work they fall out of the labor force and are no longer counted. Thus the unemployment rate can fall even though no new jobs have been created.

Long Term Labor Force Participation Rate

As we can see from the above chart the LFPR peaked in the late 1990’s and fell during the recession from 2000 through 2004. From 2004 through 2007 it leveled off but then the “Great Recession” hit and the LFPR has fallen pretty steadily since. And even though we are supposed to be in a recovery the LFPR continues to fall although there was a bit of an up tick at the end of 2015 and early 2016, April’s LFPR is lower than March’s.

Some people wrongly assume that the LFPR is falling due to retiring baby-boomers. This premise however has been proven false. See Record Low LFPR which shows the LFPR by age group since 1999. The biggest declines occur in the younger ages while those above age 60 actually show a higher percentage are working. For instance, in 1999 only 24% of those age 65-69 were working but according to the BLS in 2015 30.8% of those age 65-69 were working.

Gallup “Good Jobs” Index

Gallup’s “Good Jobs” Index is their version of the LFPR it is calculated as a percentage of the total population rather than limiting it to the “work force”. So although the percentage is lower it is a better indicator of the actual situation since it is not subject to fudging through simply redefining who is in the “work force”. Gallup says 44.9% of the total adult population is in the “Good Jobs” Index i.e. has a full-time job. This does not mean that they are employed at their full capacity or that they are earning a “decent wage” simply that they are employed full-time. Gallup defines a full-time as 30+ hours per week for an employer who provides a regular paycheck. This is up from 44.5% last month confirming the seasonal increase in employment mentioned above.

March Jobs Data

April 2, 2016 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their employment data for the month of March 2016. The adjusted U-3 unemployment rate was 5.0% up from 4.9% in February. The unadjusted U-3 unemployment rate was 5.1% while the Gallup survey says the unadjusted U-3 was actually a full 1% higher at 6.1%. See: Unemployment Rate Chart

U-6 Unemployment

The BLS says the broader U-6 unemployment rate that includes short term “discouraged workers” was 9.9% while Gallup says the rate is really 14.4%.

Meanwhile, according to [Read more…] about March Jobs Data

Startup Success: Max Sales-Low “Burn Rate”

March 21, 2016 by Tim McMahon

The key to a startup success is knowing that the faster your startup can get from a business plan to revenue, the more likely it is the company will survive and succeed. Many new businesses measure their finances in terms of their “burn rate,” which is a number that indicates the rate at which venture capital is being used and not replaced through sales.

The burn rate problem can be resolved by using resources more efficiently while boosting sales.

Sales

Your new company should try to offset its costs as fast as possible through sales. This is called “customer financing” and it is a powerful way to alter your balance sheet in your favor. Sales are the mechanism by which all companies will survive long-term. The faster you can replace financing, investor support and capital with sales revenues, the faster your company can begin building long term equity growth.

Supplier Financing

If you’re selling a physical product often you can arrange terms with your suppliers so that they will provide 30 or 60 day financing. This should give you time to generate the sale and collect the money and then cover your inventory costs. In order for this to work effectively you need to keep your inventory levels at the bare minimum, ideally through the use of “JIT” i.e. “Just In Time” ordering. This involves precision timing and often computer integration with your suppliers.

Information Technology

A variety of companies require sophisticated IT infrastructure in order to ramp up operations. It could be for “Just In Time” inventory management as previously mentioned but it could just as likely be for e-commerce or document processing. Outsourcing some IT functions can be some of the wisest money spent during your new enterprise’s startup phase.

For instance if your company is based in Canada rather than hiring your own Microsoft Certified Professional to manage your Exchange Server, you could contract with a company like IT services Ottawa, to provide your e-mail services. Through economies of scale this will probably save you a bundle compared to trying to hire all these professionals yourself. In addition to cost savings it will also save in recruiting time and allow you to get your email server up and running in days compared to months.

Professional Services

In addition to IT professionals every company needs competent legal counsel and the services of a talented and knowledgeable accountant. These two individuals can provide your company with insights it would otherwise lack and further, provide your strategy team with legal and financial ideas they might otherwise overlook. If even one major legal or financial obstacle can be avoided by something as simple as retaining a couple of professional firms, the reward just might be a successful startup instead of an exhausting bankruptcy.

Success in business is far more often the result of where money is spent than how much is available. Taking the time to build a solid foundation for a company can set your management team at ease and allow them to concentrate on important topics rather than spending time putting out small fires in places they should never occur.