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Tim McMahon, Editor of UnemploymentData.com

My grandfather lived through the Hyperinflation in Weimar, Germany--to say he was an original “gold bug” would be an understatement. I began reading his “hard money” newsletters at the age of 16 and the dividends from gold stocks helped put me through college. I began publishing the Financial Trend Forecaster paper newsletter in 1995 upon the death of James Moore editor of Your Window into the Future and the creator of the Moore Inflation Predictor©. FTF specializes in trends in the stock market, gold, inflation and bonds. In January of 2003, I began publishing InflationData.com to specialize in all forms of information about the nature of Inflation. In 2009, we added Elliott Wave University to help teach you the principles of Elliott Wave analysis. In January 2013, we began publishing OptioMoney. Connect with Tim on Google+.

March 2015 Unemployment Flat

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The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the March Unemployment figures on Friday April 3rd. According to the BLS the Current Unemployment Rate (Seasonally adjusted) for March was 5.5% unchanged from February. The Unadjusted Unemployment rate however fell from 5.8% to 5.6%. However, according to Gallup the Unadjusted Unemployment rate was actually 6.5% and the U-6 unemployment rate was 15.6% down from 16.1% in February.

Unemployment Numbers According to Gallup

 

Unadjusted U-3 Unadjusted U-6
BLS 5.6% 11.0%
Gallup 6.5% 15.6%
Difference 0.9% 4.7%

Once again the BLS numbers are quite a bit different than the [Read more…] about March 2015 Unemployment Flat

BLS Releases February Unemployment Numbers

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The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the February Unemployment figures on Friday March 6th. According to the BLS the Current Unemployment Rate (Seasonally adjusted) for February was 5.5% down from 5.7% in January. Along the same lines we see the Unadjusted Unemployment rates fall from 6.1% to 5.8%.  However, according to Gallup the Unadjusted Unemployment rate was actually 6.7% and the U-6 unemployment rate was 16.1%.

Unemployment Numbers According to Gallup

 

Unadjusted U-3 Unadjusted U-6
BLS 5.8% 11.4%
Gallup 6.7% 16.1%
Difference 0.9% 4.7%

Once again the BLS numbers are quite a bit different than the [Read more…] about BLS Releases February Unemployment Numbers

Gallup Head Says Unemployment Rate is “A Big Lie”

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BLS vs Gallup Unemployment RatesThe U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the Unemployment rate for January 2015 today. Adjusted U-3 unemployment rose “insignificantly” from 5.6% to 5.7%. Unadjusted unemployment rose more significantly from 5.4% in December to 6.1% in January. Unadjusted U-6 unemployment i.e. including discouraged workers who have given up looking plus those working part-time but seeking full-time employment jumped from 11.1% in December to 12.0% in January.

But the big news is that Jim Clifton the CEO of Gallup said that unemployment is really closer to 9%. Here’s what he said:

There’s no other way to say this. The official unemployment rate, which cruelly overlooks the suffering of the long-term and often permanently unemployed as well as the depressingly underemployed, amounts to a Big Lie.
[Read more…] about Gallup Head Says Unemployment Rate is “A Big Lie”

Unemployment Down but Fewer People Working?

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On Friday January 9th the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the Unemployment Data for December 2014. According to the BLS the Current Unemployment Rate (Seasonally adjusted) for December was 5.6% down from 5.8% in November.

Along the same lines we see the Unadjusted Unemployment rates fall from 5.5% to 5.4% at first that seems to make sense. But if we look at the Current Employment Data we will see a different picture. According to the BLS there were 141,256,000 people employed in December and 141,321,000 employed in November that is a net loss of 65,000 jobs… some of that can be explained by the typical employment peak which ends after Black-Friday. Because employment typically peaks in November the “Seasonally Adjusted” numbers adjust for that and so it is understandable that the Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate could fall while actual employment was falling… but how can unadjusted unemployment fall with fewer people actually working? [Read more…] about Unemployment Down but Fewer People Working?

November Unemployment Rate Flat

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The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the November Unemployment figures on December 5th. The Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate was 5.8% the same as the October. The Unadjusted Unemployment rate was also flat at 5.5% for November.

BLS_vs_Gallup_Unemployment_2_Nov2014Once again the BLS numbers are quite a bit different than the independently generated Gallup numbers. This is no surprise, based on the long-term comparison between the BLS numbers and the Gallup numbers the BLS numbers consistently present a rosier picture than the Gallup numbers do.

According to surveys by [Read more…] about November Unemployment Rate Flat

October Unemployment Figures

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The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the October Unemployment figures on November 7th. The Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate was 5.8% down from 5.9% in September. The Unadjusted Unemployment rate was also down from 5.7% in September to 5.5% in October but traditionally October has one of the highest employment (lowest unemployment) levels of the year.

BLS vs Gallup UnemploymentFor July and August the BLS numbers were surprisingly close to the Gallup numbers but it appears that the period of sanity has ended. In September the BLS numbers went down while the Gallup numbers went up. Although both sets of numbers went down in October the gap between them is still big enough to drive a truck through.

Gallup says the unadjusted Unemployment rate is 6.2% while the BLS says it is only 5.5% for a 0.7% difference. That is a 12.7% margin of error. Notice the major divergence at the end of the chart. [Read more…] about October Unemployment Figures

Rewiring Your Resume: The Skills You Need to Market Yourself

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Writing a successful resume requires descriptions of the applicable skills you possess, supported by clear examples in a work history. Blanketing a resume with a wide skill set is a common mistake many people make when writing their resumes. Most employers look for skills that will aid in performing a job, so it is important to narrow skill sets and work histories to reflect experience with the job you are applying for.

Applicable Skills
Resume- 3870577923_d19c5421ef_mEmployers are not interested in every skill you can bring to the table. Specific, marketable, skills are often preferred to task-based talents. In addition, most employers will not be interested in long, comprehensive lists. Instead, employers will search for skills they think will enhance a potential employee’s ability to successfully do their job.
For example, [Read more…] about Rewiring Your Resume: The Skills You Need to Market Yourself

Reconsidering Your Resume: Five Ways to Sell Yourself Better

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When you are trying to construct a good resume, you need to make sure you are using your resume to speak to your skills and attributes and sell yourself to a new employer. The five ideas below are all designed to make your resume look better, and you need to be certain your resume features as many of these ideas as possible. Don’t be afraid to stand out.

Resume-ID-100248987One Page
It is definitely better to limit your resume to one page long. Today’s world is simply too busy for you to send out resumes that are several pages. When you getting ready to e-mail your resume, you need to make sure they are confined to one page. Unless you are applying for a high level management position, human resources people won’t [Read more…] about Reconsidering Your Resume: Five Ways to Sell Yourself Better

September BLS Unemployment Numbers Differ Vastly from Gallup

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The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the September Unemployment figures on October 3rd. The Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate was 5.9% down from 6.2% in August. The Unadjusted Unemployment rate was also down from 6.3% in August to 5.7% in September.

BLS_vs_Gallup_Unemployment_2_Sep2014For the last couple of months the BLS numbers have been surprisingly close to the Gallup numbers but it appears that the period of sanity has ended. This month the BLS numbers went down while the Gallup numbers went up. So Gallup says the unadjusted Unemployment rate is 6.6% while the BLS says it is only 5.7% for a whopping 0.9% difference. That is a 15.8% margin of error. Notice the major divergence at the end of the chart. [Read more…] about September BLS Unemployment Numbers Differ Vastly from Gallup

BLS Releases August Unemployment: 6.1% Down from 6.2% in July

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The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the August Unemployment figures on September 5th. The Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate was 6.2% up from 6.1% in June. The Unadjusted Unemployment rate was also down from 6.5% in July to 6.3% in August.

BLS vs GallupIn another rare occurrence, the BLS seasonally adjusted numbers are actually identical to the Gallup numbers for the first time since September 2011. In the interim the BLS has been lower than the Gallup numbers 24 times and Gallup has been lower 9 times. The average difference when the BLS is lower is  0.6% but when Gallup is lower the average has only been 0.3%. So in addition to BLS being lower more often it is also lower by more indicating some sort of bias to the downside. But perhaps the BLS is mending their ways since last month and this month have resulted in the BLS and Gallup being well within a normal margin of error. [Read more…] about BLS Releases August Unemployment: 6.1% Down from 6.2% in July