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Tim McMahon, Editor of UnemploymentData.com

My grandfather lived through the Hyperinflation in Weimar, Germany--to say he was an original “gold bug” would be an understatement. I began reading his “hard money” newsletters at the age of 16 and the dividends from gold stocks helped put me through college. I began publishing the Financial Trend Forecaster paper newsletter in 1995 upon the death of James Moore editor of Your Window into the Future and the creator of the Moore Inflation Predictor©. FTF specializes in trends in the stock market, gold, inflation and bonds. In January of 2003, I began publishing InflationData.com to specialize in all forms of information about the nature of Inflation. In 2009, we added Elliott Wave University to help teach you the principles of Elliott Wave analysis. In January 2013, we began publishing OptioMoney. Connect with Tim on Google+.

1 Million Fewer Jobs but BLS Says 209 K More

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U-3 Unemployment

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their employment and unemployment numbers for July on Friday August 4th.  The Seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate was down from 4.4% in June to 4.3% in July. Unadjusted U-3 however was up from 4.5% to 4.6%. U3 is the Official unemployment rate per the International Labor Organization definition. It occurs when people are without jobs and they have actively looked for work within the past four weeks.

U-6 Unemployment

U-6 unemployment is the broadest category of unemployment and includes U3 plus “discouraged workers”, plus other “marginally attached workers”, plus part-time workers who want to work full-time, but cannot due to economic reasons. U-6 was unchanged from June at 8.9%.

 

Employment

The Commissioner of the BLS released this statement, “Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 209,000 in July, and the unemployment rate, at 4.3 percent, was little changed. Job gains occurred in food services and drinking places, professional and business services, and health care. Employment growth has averaged 184,000 per month thus far this year, in line with the  average monthly gain in 2016 (+187,000). “

However if we look at the actual employment data we get a different picture.  [Read more…] about 1 Million Fewer Jobs but BLS Says 209 K More

Comparing Bureau of Labor Statistics Unemployment Numbers to an Independent Source

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NOTE: Gallup has STOPPED publishing their Unemployment Numbers effective in July 2017. This includes U-3, Underemployment (U-6), and Good Jobs Index (Payroll to Population Rate).

From 2010-2017,  the Gallup Survey people both generated numbers to help us understand the employment/unemployment situation. Unfortunately, they often presented a different picture from the numbers generated by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Typically the BLS data presented a rosier picture than the independently surveyed Gallup numbers.

Often in the summer, the gap between the BLS and the Gallup closed. In July 2016, the BLS and the Gallup numbers came in identical. Early in 2017 the gap widened to 1.3% in April but has narrowed again to 0.6% in June.

For June 2017 Gallup said unadjusted U-3 unemployment was 5.1% down from 5.2% in May and 5.4% in April while the BLS said it was 4.5% up from 4.1% in May and April. So the spread is currently 0.6%.

Whose Unemployment Numbers are Right?

There has been some talk about “full employment” in the media of late and if we look at the Unemployment numbers created by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) we might get that impression. If we look at the Employment numbers rather than the Unemployment Rate we see a significant increase but it hasn’t been until recent months that the increase has actually outpaced the growth in the population.

We’ve looked at Employment vs. Unemployment on other pages to see how they compare and we’ve looked at U-6 (total labor force including those who’ve given up looking) vs. U-3 (those who are still actively looking).  The U-3 unemployment rate is the commonly quoted one. But the one problem is that all that data comes from the government. If they are fudging the numbers how would we know? Unless as we’ve noted before there are inconsistencies between the Unemployment and Employment Charts. But we  [Read more…] about Comparing Bureau of Labor Statistics Unemployment Numbers to an Independent Source

High Unemployment Rates in Alaska and D.C.

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What Causes a State to Have a Lower Unemployment Rate?

Nationwide according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics the Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment rate is 4.4% but when you look a bit closer you will see that there is quite a bit of variation by state.

States with the Highest Unemployment Rates

Alaska had the highest jobless rate, at 6.8%, followed by New Mexico, at 6.4% and Washington D.C. at 6.2%.

22% of Alaskan Natives live below the poverty level.

Some of Alaska’s problems are understandable. Alaska has high transportation costs, little industry, a massively spread out population and massive poverty. As a matter of fact among Alaskan Native Americans the poverty rate is double the U.S. Average. The alcoholism mortality rate is 6 times higher than the national average. Obesity and diabetes rates are much higher and injury related deaths are much more frequent. But the situation among Native American tribes in Alaska is actually much worse than the statistics show.

Domestic violence is rampant among Native Americans in Alaska and not just in the home. I spoke with a teacher at a Native American School and they found it necessary to create two distinct schools to separate the boys from the girls because the girls were consistently being raped in the bathrooms. These rapes were routinely unreported to authorities because of the prevailing feeling that nothing would be done about it. And despite the massive under-reporting, statistics still show much higher rates of domestic violence than the average.

Opposite Conditions, Similar Rates

Looking at the various unemployment rates in the states, Alaska’s problems seem obvious but upon closer examination one begins to wonder. The third highest unemployment rate is Washington D.C. which is almost a polar opposite to all the factors in Alaska. D.C. is small, densely populated, has unlimited infrastructure, no oil reserves but it can draw funds from the entire country and it still has a surprisingly high unemployment rate at 6.2%. So two polar opposite places have similar unemployment rates. 

Similar Conditions, Different Rates

So let’s look at it the other way around and look at [Read more…] about High Unemployment Rates in Alaska and D.C.

Employers Compensation Costs Increase

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The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their quarterly report today on the status of “Compensation Costs” i.e. how much employers are having to pay employees. Wages and salaries
are considered to make up about 70 percent of compensation costs, while  benefits make up the remaining 30 percent of compensation.

Over the most recent quarter (3 months) on a seasonally adjusted basis wages and salaries for civilian workers increased ½% while benefits increased slightly more at 0.6%. Over the last 12 months compensation costs for civilian workers increased 2.4 percent.

According to the BLS’ definition Civilian Workers includes both private industry workers and state and local government workers.

Private Industry Workers

As of the end of June 2017, compensation costs for private industry workers increased 2.4 percent over the year this was the same increase as the 12 months ending in June 2016. However, [Read more…] about Employers Compensation Costs Increase

6 Things to Consider When Your Business Expands

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When you are considering expanding your business – that is always a cause to celebrate. Sales might be doing well and you decide you need to find a bigger space so you can hire additional employees. So far so good. But, are you really ready for the expansion? The decision to extend the scope of your business must be a result of thoughtful consideration of various factors, including the financial, logistical, even your emotional readiness. Many successful small businesses have faltered or even failed because they expanded too quickly before they had worked out processes and procedures that were scalable. Forbes lists the following cautions when considering expansion.

  • Once you get to a certain sales range, above $5 million or so, it’s harder to keep track of your financials.
  • Unfortunately, more sales does not always equate to more profit.
  • Once a company is really growing quickly, the quality of the people you hire becomes a big issue.
  • When you’re growing quickly, it’s harder to be sure your customers are happy.
  • Fast growing companies often see their accounts receivable run faster than their sales or their ability to collect.

The rule of thumb is that you should only expand when there are untapped opportunities that can benefit your business. You need to think about the following points before embarking on business expansion: [Read more…] about 6 Things to Consider When Your Business Expands

45 Ways You Can Find Success Without a Degree

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College degrees are expensive these days. Many college graduates wind up with five-figure debts and still no job prospects once they graduate. To avoid that, many people are now looking for jobs that don’t require a degree. While some may assume that these are low-paying jobs, many are not. If you’re looking for a job that doesn’t require a degree, you might want to consider “Trade School” or other possibilities. They pay well and best of all, they don’t require a 4 year degree.

[Read more…] about 45 Ways You Can Find Success Without a Degree

Deciding Which Engineering Degree is Right for You

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If you think you’d like to become an engineer but aren’t sure which program is right for you there are several factors that you should consider. Often High School graduates only think about how much money they can earn and forget that there is much more to a job than that. You don’t want to spend the next 30 -40 years doing something you don’t enjoy so it is important to look at what the job entails and the environment it is done in. Some engineers spend a lot of time in the field on a job site… others spend their time in an office. Some work with their hands while others work on computers or with chemicals. And finally you have to consider job availability no matter how much you enjoy designing horse saddles if there isn’t much demand for horse saddle engineers you probably won’t be able to find a job doing it.

EngineerIn the table below we have compiled information from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on various fields of engineering, median annual salary, job growth and a basic description of what the position entails. [Read more…] about Deciding Which Engineering Degree is Right for You

May Employment and Unemployment Numbers

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The U.S.Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the May unemployment numbers today. The BLS Commissioner says: Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 138,000 in May, but these are Seasonally Adjusted numbers. So since typically employment increases in May, what he is saying is that 138,000 more jobs than average were created. In unadjusted terms employment was 145.938 million in April and 146.748 in May for a net gain of  810,000 jobs. Adjusted U-3 Unemployment was 4.3% down from 4.4% in April. Unadjusted U-3 Unemployment was 4.1% unchanged from April.

Gallup Unadjusted U-3 was 5.2% down from 5.4% in April. Gallup’s unadjusted U-6 Unemployment was 8.1% unchanged from April. Gallup’s U-6 was 13.8% Down from 14.0% in April.

May Employment Gain and Loss Bubbles

In the following chart from the BLS we can see [Read more…] about May Employment and Unemployment Numbers

5 Ways You Can Build Your Professional Skillset with Certifications

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In a competitive job market, making your resume stand out from the crowd could be as simple as earning a certificate or two by passing a few exams. This can serve as verification of special skills and training. Many certifications will be recognized and respected by hiring managers. This can give you an instant advantage over those who don’t have the certification. Here are five ways certifications can improve your job prospects.

1. Project Management Professional

A PMP certification shows that you have the management skills to get things done. Every growing business wants someone with the leadership ability to organize and complete special projects that come along. Applicants with the demonstrated skill to guide teams to finish projects on time and on budget are seen as a great asset. A few big projects under your belt could provide a great boost to your career and distinguish your resume.

According to the Project Management Institute: [Read more…] about 5 Ways You Can Build Your Professional Skillset with Certifications

Tips for Coping with Unemployment

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UnemployedUnemployment is tough, not only are there financial repercussions, but there are psychological ones as well. Getting laid-off no matter whether it is due to adverse nationwide economic conditions, or due to personal errors in judgement, it’s still painful. According to a Gallup poll Depression Rates are Higher for Long-Term Unemployed. “The longer that Americans are unemployed, the more likely they are to report signs of poor psychological well-being. About one in five Americans who have been unemployed for a year or more say they currently have or are being treated for depression — almost double the rate among those who have been unemployed for five weeks or less.” 

On the other hand, Healthy Eating Linked to Lower Likelihood of Depression so even if you’ve been fired, you need to continue to take care of yourself and eat healthy meals.

Unemployment can initially result in our systems going into a form of “shock” which makes it difficult to think clearly and so we tend to get depressed and just “shut-down”. But it is important to act quickly to minimize the negative impact on both yourself and anyone who is depending on you.

1) Cut Back on Expenses

The first thing you need to [Read more…] about Tips for Coping with Unemployment