Tim McMahon, Editor of UnemploymentData.com

My grandfather lived through the Hyperinflation in Weimar, Germany--to say he was an original “gold bug” would be an understatement. I began reading his “hard money” newsletters at the age of 16 and the dividends from gold stocks helped put me through college. I began publishing the Financial Trend Forecaster paper newsletter in 1995 upon the death of James Moore editor of Your Window into the Future and the creator of the Moore Inflation Predictor©. FTF specializes in trends in the stock market, gold, inflation and bonds. In January of 2003, I began publishing InflationData.com to specialize in all forms of information about the nature of Inflation. In 2009, we added Elliott Wave University to help teach you the principles of Elliott Wave analysis. In January 2013, we began publishing OptioMoney. Connect with Tim on Google+.

July Unemployment Data Released

August 7, 2015 by Tim McMahon

The BLS issued their “preliminary estimates” for the employment situation for the month of July 2015. Their abbreviated report using seasonally adjusted numbers says, “Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 215,000 in July, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in retail trade, health care, professional and technical services, and financial activities.”

The full report of unadjusted numbers states that there were 141.794 million jobs in July down from 142.817 million jobs initially reported in June. At the same time they revised the numbers for June up to 142.839 million making the real loss of jobs -1,045,000. See Current Employment Commentary for more information.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) also released the newest unemployment data for July 2015 today. According to the BLS, the current “Seasonally Adjusted” Unemployment Rate for July is 5.3% the same as June but down from May’s 5.5%. The BLS reported the “Unadjusted” Unemployment Rate is 5.6% which is lower than January’s 6.1% but up from June’s unadjusted 5.5%. See Current Unemployment Chart for more information.

Normally, you would expect that employment and unemployment should simply be the inverse of each other. Flip one over and you have the other. However, in the chart of employment vs. unemployment we see several anomalies in the data. Since the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) actually uses two entirely different surveys to calculate them it helps us see [Read more…] about July Unemployment Data Released

June Unemployment Data

July 2, 2015 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the newest unemployment data for June 2015 on the first Thursday of July (rather than Friday due to the holiday). According to the BLS, the current “Seasonally Adjusted” Unemployment Rate for June is 5.3% down from May’s 5.5%. The BLS reported the “Unadjusted” Unemployment Rate is 5.5% which is lower than January’s 6.1% equal to last October’s unadjusted 5.5% but up from April’s 5.1%. See Current Unemployment Chart and Job Growth Stalls, Labor Participation at 38-Year Low for more information. The BLS issued their “preliminary estimates” for the employment situation for the month of June 2015. The report states 142.589 million jobs reported. That’s up 455,000 from May. But at the same time they revised the numbers for May down by 58,000 making the real gain (compared to the numbers they reported last month) 397,000. See Current Employment Commentary for more information.

Historical Employment Levels Compared to Recessions

In addition to the number of jobs from 1939 through the present this chart shows the recessions shaded blue as per the official description of a “recession” by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Although during some periods which are classified as official recessions the unemployment rate didn’t skyrocket generally, recessions correspond pretty well to declines in employment (i.e. increased Unemployment). This is especially true since unemployment is one of the factors NBER uses to determine whether there is an official recession. But theoretically if all the other factors line up employment could remain steady and the economy could be in a recession. See Employment During Recessions for more information. In this chart we compare employment vs. unemployment in an effort to get a more complete picture of the employment situation. Normally, you would think that they should simply be the inverse of each other. Flip one over and you have the other. But the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) actually uses two entirely different surveys to calculate them. And the current chart shows [Read more…] about June Unemployment Data

May Unemployment Data

June 5, 2015 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the newest unemployment data for May 2015 on Friday June 5^th. According to the BLS, the current “Seasonally Adjusted” Unemployment Rate for May is 5.5% up from April’s 5.4%. The BLS reported the “Unadjusted” Unemployment Rate is 5.3% which is lower than October’s unadjusted 5.5% and January’s 6.1% but up from April’s 5.1%. See Current Unemployment Chart for more information.

The BLS “preliminary estimates” for the employment situation for the month of May 2015 include 142.420 million jobs reported for May 2015. That was up 970,000 from April. But at the same time they revised the numbers for April down by 12,000. See Current Employment Commentary for more information.

When looking at employment vs. unemployment you would think that they would simply be the inverse of each other. Flip one over and you have the other. But the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) actually uses two entirely different surveys to calculate them. So by [Read more…] about May Unemployment Data

BLS Releases Unemployment Rates for April

May 9, 2015 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Employment and Unemployment rates for the month of April 2015 on Friday May 8th. The commonly quoted Seasonally Adjusted U-3 Unemployment rate was 5.4% down slightly from 5.5% in both February and March.

The unadjusted U3 was 5.1% while the broader unadjusted U6 [Read more…] about BLS Releases Unemployment Rates for April

March 2015 Unemployment Flat

April 3, 2015 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the March Unemployment figures on Friday April 3^rd. According to the BLS the Current Unemployment Rate (Seasonally adjusted) for March was 5.5% unchanged from February. The Unadjusted Unemployment rate however fell from 5.8% to 5.6%. However, according to Gallup the Unadjusted Unemployment rate was actually 6.5% and the U-6 unemployment rate was 15.6% down from 16.1% in February.

Unemployment Numbers According to Gallup

	Unadjusted U-3	Unadjusted U-6
BLS	5.6%	11.0%
Gallup	6.5%	15.6%
Difference	0.9%	4.7%

Once again the BLS numbers are quite a bit different than the [Read more…] about March 2015 Unemployment Flat

BLS Releases February Unemployment Numbers

March 6, 2015 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the February Unemployment figures on Friday March 6^th. According to the BLS the Current Unemployment Rate (Seasonally adjusted) for February was 5.5% down from 5.7% in January. Along the same lines we see the Unadjusted Unemployment rates fall from 6.1% to 5.8%. However, according to Gallup the Unadjusted Unemployment rate was actually 6.7% and the U-6 unemployment rate was 16.1%.

Unemployment Numbers According to Gallup

	Unadjusted U-3	Unadjusted U-6
BLS	5.8%	11.4%
Gallup	6.7%	16.1%
Difference	0.9%	4.7%

Once again the BLS numbers are quite a bit different than the [Read more…] about BLS Releases February Unemployment Numbers

Gallup Head Says Unemployment Rate is “A Big Lie”

February 6, 2015 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the Unemployment rate for January 2015 today. Adjusted U-3 unemployment rose “insignificantly” from 5.6% to 5.7%. Unadjusted unemployment rose more significantly from 5.4% in December to 6.1% in January. Unadjusted U-6 unemployment i.e. including discouraged workers who have given up looking plus those working part-time but seeking full-time employment jumped from 11.1% in December to 12.0% in January.

But the big news is that Jim Clifton the CEO of Gallup said that unemployment is really closer to 9%. Here’s what he said:

There’s no other way to say this. The official unemployment rate, which cruelly overlooks the suffering of the long-term and often permanently unemployed as well as the depressingly underemployed, amounts to a Big Lie.
[Read more…] about Gallup Head Says Unemployment Rate is “A Big Lie”

Unemployment Down but Fewer People Working?

January 9, 2015 by Tim McMahon

On Friday January 9^th the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the Unemployment Data for December 2014. According to the BLS the Current Unemployment Rate (Seasonally adjusted) for December was 5.6% down from 5.8% in November.

Along the same lines we see the Unadjusted Unemployment rates fall from 5.5% to 5.4% at first that seems to make sense. But if we look at the Current Employment Data we will see a different picture. According to the BLS there were 141,256,000 people employed in December and 141,321,000 employed in November that is a net loss of 65,000 jobs… some of that can be explained by the typical employment peak which ends after Black-Friday. Because employment typically peaks in November the “Seasonally Adjusted” numbers adjust for that and so it is understandable that the Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate could fall while actual employment was falling… but how can unadjusted unemployment fall with fewer people actually working? [Read more…] about Unemployment Down but Fewer People Working?

November Unemployment Rate Flat

December 8, 2014 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the November Unemployment figures on December 5^th. The Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate was 5.8% the same as the October. The Unadjusted Unemployment rate was also flat at 5.5% for November.

Once again the BLS numbers are quite a bit different than the independently generated Gallup numbers. This is no surprise, based on the long-term comparison between the BLS numbers and the Gallup numbers the BLS numbers consistently present a rosier picture than the Gallup numbers do.

According to surveys by [Read more…] about November Unemployment Rate Flat

October Unemployment Figures

November 8, 2014 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the October Unemployment figures on November 7^th. The Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate was 5.8% down from 5.9% in September. The Unadjusted Unemployment rate was also down from 5.7% in September to 5.5% in October but traditionally October has one of the highest employment (lowest unemployment) levels of the year.

For July and August the BLS numbers were surprisingly close to the Gallup numbers but it appears that the period of sanity has ended. In September the BLS numbers went down while the Gallup numbers went up. Although both sets of numbers went down in October the gap between them is still big enough to drive a truck through.

Gallup says the unadjusted Unemployment rate is 6.2% while the BLS says it is only 5.5% for a 0.7% difference. That is a 12.7% margin of error. Notice the major divergence at the end of the chart. [Read more…] about October Unemployment Figures