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Tim McMahon, Editor of UnemploymentData.com

My grandfather lived through the Hyperinflation in Weimar, Germany--to say he was an original “gold bug” would be an understatement. I began reading his “hard money” newsletters at the age of 16 and the dividends from gold stocks helped put me through college. I began publishing the Financial Trend Forecaster paper newsletter in 1995 upon the death of James Moore editor of Your Window into the Future and the creator of the Moore Inflation Predictor©. FTF specializes in trends in the stock market, gold, inflation and bonds. In January of 2003, I began publishing InflationData.com to specialize in all forms of information about the nature of Inflation. In 2009, we added Elliott Wave University to help teach you the principles of Elliott Wave analysis. In January 2013, we began publishing OptioMoney. Connect with Tim on Google+.

Employers Compensation Costs Increase

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The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their quarterly report today on the status of “Compensation Costs” i.e. how much employers are having to pay employees. Wages and salaries
are considered to make up about 70 percent of compensation costs, while  benefits make up the remaining 30 percent of compensation.

Over the most recent quarter (3 months) on a seasonally adjusted basis wages and salaries for civilian workers increased ½% while benefits increased slightly more at 0.6%. Over the last 12 months compensation costs for civilian workers increased 2.4 percent.

According to the BLS’ definition Civilian Workers includes both private industry workers and state and local government workers.

Private Industry Workers

As of the end of June 2017, compensation costs for private industry workers increased 2.4 percent over the year this was the same increase as the 12 months ending in June 2016. However, [Read more…] about Employers Compensation Costs Increase

6 Things to Consider When Your Business Expands

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When you are considering expanding your business – that is always a cause to celebrate. Sales might be doing well and you decide you need to find a bigger space so you can hire additional employees. So far so good. But, are you really ready for the expansion? The decision to extend the scope of your business must be a result of thoughtful consideration of various factors, including the financial, logistical, even your emotional readiness. Many successful small businesses have faltered or even failed because they expanded too quickly before they had worked out processes and procedures that were scalable. Forbes lists the following cautions when considering expansion.

  • Once you get to a certain sales range, above $5 million or so, it’s harder to keep track of your financials.
  • Unfortunately, more sales does not always equate to more profit.
  • Once a company is really growing quickly, the quality of the people you hire becomes a big issue.
  • When you’re growing quickly, it’s harder to be sure your customers are happy.
  • Fast growing companies often see their accounts receivable run faster than their sales or their ability to collect.

The rule of thumb is that you should only expand when there are untapped opportunities that can benefit your business. You need to think about the following points before embarking on business expansion: [Read more…] about 6 Things to Consider When Your Business Expands

45 Ways You Can Find Success Without a Degree

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College degrees are expensive these days. Many college graduates wind up with five-figure debts and still no job prospects once they graduate. To avoid that, many people are now looking for jobs that don’t require a degree. While some may assume that these are low-paying jobs, many are not. If you’re looking for a job that doesn’t require a degree, you might want to consider “Trade School” or other possibilities. They pay well and best of all, they don’t require a 4 year degree.

[Read more…] about 45 Ways You Can Find Success Without a Degree

Deciding Which Engineering Degree is Right for You

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If you think you’d like to become an engineer but aren’t sure which program is right for you there are several factors that you should consider. Often High School graduates only think about how much money they can earn and forget that there is much more to a job than that. You don’t want to spend the next 30 -40 years doing something you don’t enjoy so it is important to look at what the job entails and the environment it is done in. Some engineers spend a lot of time in the field on a job site… others spend their time in an office. Some work with their hands while others work on computers or with chemicals. And finally you have to consider job availability no matter how much you enjoy designing horse saddles if there isn’t much demand for horse saddle engineers you probably won’t be able to find a job doing it.

EngineerIn the table below we have compiled information from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on various fields of engineering, median annual salary, job growth and a basic description of what the position entails. [Read more…] about Deciding Which Engineering Degree is Right for You

May Employment and Unemployment Numbers

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The U.S.Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the May unemployment numbers today. The BLS Commissioner says: Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 138,000 in May, but these are Seasonally Adjusted numbers. So since typically employment increases in May, what he is saying is that 138,000 more jobs than average were created. In unadjusted terms employment was 145.938 million in April and 146.748 in May for a net gain of  810,000 jobs. Adjusted U-3 Unemployment was 4.3% down from 4.4% in April. Unadjusted U-3 Unemployment was 4.1% unchanged from April.

Gallup Unadjusted U-3 was 5.2% down from 5.4% in April. Gallup’s unadjusted U-6 Unemployment was 8.1% unchanged from April. Gallup’s U-6 was 13.8% Down from 14.0% in April.

May Employment Gain and Loss Bubbles

In the following chart from the BLS we can see [Read more…] about May Employment and Unemployment Numbers

5 Ways You Can Build Your Professional Skillset with Certifications

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In a competitive job market, making your resume stand out from the crowd could be as simple as earning a certificate or two by passing a few exams. This can serve as verification of special skills and training. Many certifications will be recognized and respected by hiring managers. This can give you an instant advantage over those who don’t have the certification. Here are five ways certifications can improve your job prospects.

1. Project Management Professional

A PMP certification shows that you have the management skills to get things done. Every growing business wants someone with the leadership ability to organize and complete special projects that come along. Applicants with the demonstrated skill to guide teams to finish projects on time and on budget are seen as a great asset. A few big projects under your belt could provide a great boost to your career and distinguish your resume.

According to the Project Management Institute: [Read more…] about 5 Ways You Can Build Your Professional Skillset with Certifications

Tips for Coping with Unemployment

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UnemployedUnemployment is tough, not only are there financial repercussions, but there are psychological ones as well. Getting laid-off no matter whether it is due to adverse nationwide economic conditions, or due to personal errors in judgement, it’s still painful. According to a Gallup poll Depression Rates are Higher for Long-Term Unemployed. “The longer that Americans are unemployed, the more likely they are to report signs of poor psychological well-being. About one in five Americans who have been unemployed for a year or more say they currently have or are being treated for depression — almost double the rate among those who have been unemployed for five weeks or less.” 

On the other hand, Healthy Eating Linked to Lower Likelihood of Depression so even if you’ve been fired, you need to continue to take care of yourself and eat healthy meals.

Unemployment can initially result in our systems going into a form of “shock” which makes it difficult to think clearly and so we tend to get depressed and just “shut-down”. But it is important to act quickly to minimize the negative impact on both yourself and anyone who is depending on you.

1) Cut Back on Expenses

The first thing you need to [Read more…] about Tips for Coping with Unemployment

Only 25% Intend to Retire at Retirement Age

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Every two years Gallup does a survey and asks working age adults if they intend to retire once they reach “full retirement age”. This is the age set by the Social Security department for when you qualify for retirement benefits. In years past this was 65 years old, but in an effort to salvage the Social Security system they extended the age. If you were born in 1937 or earlier full retirement age is still 65 but if you were born in 1960 or later full retirement age is 67. And in between, full retirement age gradually increases from 65 to 67. See the Social Security Administration’s Benefit By Year Of Birth chart.

Gallup Survey Results

In the 2017 survey, 25% of the respondents said they plan to retire as soon as they are eligible. And on the other end of the spectrum [Read more…] about Only 25% Intend to Retire at Retirement Age

Over a Million New Jobs Not 211,000 

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According to the BLS Commissioner’s report for this month:

“The unemployment rate changed little over the month but, at 4.4 percent, matched the pre-recession low reached in 2007. The number of unemployed persons, at 7.1 million, also changed little in April.“

Today’s Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Commissioner’s Report says, “Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 211,000 in April, and the unemployment rate, at 4.4 percent, was little changed. Thus far this year, monthly job gains have averaged 185,000, in line with average monthly job growth in 2016. In April, job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, health care and social assistance, financial activities, and mining.”

But we have to remember that typically employment increases in April. So what the BLS Commissioner is saying is that 211,000 more jobs than average were created. In layman’s terms, unadjusted employment was 144.953 million in March and 145.979 in April for a net gain of  1,026,000 jobs.

Employment Growth Bubbles

In the above chart we see the various sectors of employment. The size of the bubble represents [Read more…] about Over a Million New Jobs Not 211,000 

Why the U.S. Isn’t at “Full Employment” Yet

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The news is bristling with excitement as all the major media outlets are jumping on today’s employment numbers hot off the Bureau of Labor Statistics presses. The BLS reported that the Seasonally Adjusted U-3 unemployment rate was just 4.4% and the unadjusted broader based U-6 was just 8.1%.

In response to all this good news The New York Times said, “We’re Getting Awfully Close to Full Employment” and The Wall Street Journal trumpeted “Jobs Report: This Is What Full Employment Looks Like” so who am I to throw cold water on their parade? Well, at least I’m not the only one to have my doubts. Jared Bernstein at The Washington Post thinks that the current low inflation level is a factor that may indicate that we aren’t quite there yet. So I’m adding my own two-cents with the following chart. We regularly publish the U-6 minus U-3 chart which shows the differential between the ordinary unemployed U-3 and the bottom of the barrel unemployed U-6. By definition, in order to be at “full-employment” everyone who wants a job has to have one.  That doesn’t mean Zero unemployment because there is a bit of friction in the system and so when people change jobs they are temporarily “unemployed” so there will always be some. Historically, this was assumed to be around 3% unemployment. So as the U-3 unemployment approaches 3% the U-6 people get drawn into the market. They may not have the skills or the ambition or the whatever but now they can find a job because companies are desperate.

So by looking at the U-6 minus the U-3 we can get a very good picture of when we are nearing “full employment”. So let’s look at that chart. [Read more…] about Why the U.S. Isn’t at “Full Employment” Yet