Tim McMahon, Editor of UnemploymentData.com

My grandfather lived through the Hyperinflation in Weimar, Germany--to say he was an original “gold bug” would be an understatement. I began reading his “hard money” newsletters at the age of 16 and the dividends from gold stocks helped put me through college. I began publishing the Financial Trend Forecaster paper newsletter in 1995 upon the death of James Moore editor of Your Window into the Future and the creator of the Moore Inflation Predictor©. FTF specializes in trends in the stock market, gold, inflation and bonds. In January of 2003, I began publishing InflationData.com to specialize in all forms of information about the nature of Inflation. In 2009, we added Elliott Wave University to help teach you the principles of Elliott Wave analysis. In January 2013, we began publishing OptioMoney. Connect with Tim on Google+.

February Employment UP – Unemployment Down

March 10, 2018 by Tim McMahon

On Friday March 9^th the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly employment survey results for the month of February.

According to the BLS the Seasonally Adjusted U-3 Unemployment Rate for February is unchanged for the 5th month in a row. That’s right from October through February the Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment rate has been 4.1%.

This is a very low level and we really don’t expect it to get too much lower.

Key February Employment and Unemployment Numbers

Adjusted U-3 Unemployment- 4.1% unchanged since October.
Unadjusted U-3 Unemployment- 4.4% down from 4.5% January.
Unadjusted U-6 Unemployment- 8.6% down from 8.9% in January.
Employment 146.696 million up from 145.473 million in January but down from 148.346 million in December and 148.526 million in November.
Gallup has discontinued publishing U-6 & U-3 numbers.

See Current Unemployment Chart for more info.

Employment by Sector

The employment “bubble chart” gives us a good representation of how each sector of the economy is doing (employment wise). As we can see from the chart below the only sector to the left of the zero line is Information meaning that all other sectors gained employees in February except information which lost -12,000 employees on a “Seasonally Adjusted” basis.

The biggest gainer was construction (bubble furthest to the right) which added 61,000 jobs, followed by Retail Trade which gained 50,300 jobs and Professional and Business Services which gained 50,000 jobs even manufacturing gained 31,000 jobs. (See the table below the chart for average weekly earnings and other details.)

How to read this chart:

Bubbles location on the chart tell us two things:

Change in Employment Levels over the most recent month.
Average Weekly earnings.
The further to the right the bubble the larger the increase in the number of jobs.
The higher up on the chart the larger the average salary.

Bubble Size tells us:

Total Employment for the sector.
Larger bubbles mean more people are employed in that sector.

Employment and Average Weekly Earnings by Industry for All Employees

February 2018, Seasonally Adjusted

Industry	Monthly Increase	Average Weekly Earnings	Employment Level
Total Private Employment	287,000	$922.88	125,819,000
Mining and Logging	8,000	$1,485.78	713,000
Construction	61,000	$1,158.17	7,173,000
Manufacturing	31,000	$1,100.03	12,614,000
Wholesale trade	5,800	$1,185.12	5,956,200
Retail trade	50,300	$572.55	15,926,200
Transportation and Warehousing	15,400	$940.60	5,263,400
Utilities	1,200	$1,658.82	553,400
Information	-12,000	$1,418.40	2,748,000
Financial Activities	28,000	$1,290.81	8,547,000
Professional and Business Services	50,000	$1,161.30	20,760,000
Education and Health Services	23,000	$882.75	23,466,000
Leisure and Hospitality	16,000	$410.81	16,262,000
Other Services	10,000	$768.73	5,837,000

U-6 Unemployment

Looking at the broader measure of Unemployment which includes discouraged workers, we see that the U-6 unemployment rate fell from 10.1% in January to 9.5% in 2017 and from 8.9% to 8.6% in 2018.

From the table at the left we can also see that U-6 unemployment went from 9.2% in October 2016 to 7.6% in 2017.

Similarly it fell from 9.0% in November 2016 to 7.7% in 2017 and from 9.1% in December 2016 to 8.0% in 2017.

See Unadjusted U-6 unemployment for more info.

Employment

Over the last month, the actual number of people working (not seasonally adjusted) has increased by [Read more…] about February Employment UP – Unemployment Down

Work Got You Down? 4 Steps to Making a Career Change

February 20, 2018 by Tim McMahon

If you are not enjoying the work you do, it’s harder to be productive as the minutes drag by… feeling like hours. Are you miserable in your current profession and want a change? Perhaps you want to earn more money or move your career to the next level. A career change might sound daunting, but in the long run can be worth it. These four steps will get you started on the path to a career change.

Research Possible Careers

Some people already have a new career in mind. It might be something they have always wanted to do or related to a field that has interested them for years. However, most people still need to narrow down their list to just one. Research is vital when considering a new career because you want to make sure you are choosing the right one. One of the best places to research new career options is the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Look up how many people work in the profession, whether the industry is going to grow or shrink, and even the job turnover rate.

Job Shadowing or Information Gathering

Once you have done your proper research, it is important to learn as much about the career field as possible. You can arrange to interview those you already know work in the industry, or you can even reach out to people who have worked in it before. Social media is a great way to meet possible interviewees. You might even be able to [Read more…] about Work Got You Down? 4 Steps to Making a Career Change

Hard Day’s Work: 4 Ways to Prepare for Working a Construction Job

February 7, 2018 by Tim McMahon

Working a construction job is a great way to apply your skills, stay fit, and enjoy a solid income. But it can also be dangerous if you aren’t properly prepared. Here are a few easy preparations, so you can be sure that the time you give to your trade will be safe, worthwhile and effective.

Have the Right Gear

A construction site offers a unique set of physical characteristics that require the right gear to effectively accommodate. For you, this may mean a pair of steel-toed boots to protect your feet, a hard hat to protect your head, or rain gear to ensure you stay dry and comfortable in case it starts raining. An interesting quote from Ben’s Cleaner Sales says “When your job requires you and your employees to work with pressure washers or outside during the rain, you want quality rain equipment to keep you dry. When you are dry and comfortable, you are more productive… Plus, most of our rain gear is brightly colored and equipped with reflective stripes for safety.” So it is important to remember that when the weather is bad visibility is also lower, so the addition of bright colors and reflective materials can also improve your safety.

You must keep in mind that you may be exposed to the elements up to your entire workday, so you need to dress to ensure you remain comfortable if that ends up being the case. If it’s cold, dress in layers so you can shed layers as you heat up while performing work. If it’s warm, wear clothing that will wick sweat away from your body so you don’t end up with wet, uncomfortable clothes all day. Two critical pieces of personal equipment you should have are construction boots and a reflective vest. Simply by wearing these to a construction site you show the job foreman that you are serious and ready to work.

Study up

If this is your first time working in the construction industry, being able to understand what’s being asked from you, right from the start, will help you reach greater heights in the industry. Know specific terminology that is used in your field, and understand how to use the tools of your specific trade. Two certifications that you can easily get are your OSHA 10 certification and your “Flagman” certification as you’ll see in this video these two certifications will take you a total of 14 hours to get and will go a long way toward getting your foot in the door of the construction industry.

Over time you will certainly improve in all these areas through daily exposure and hands-on learning, but if you don’t know much when you show up to a job site, the learning curve is going to be difficult and potentially dangerous.

Get Enough Sleep

Since your safety and the safety of others on the job site depend on [Read more…] about Hard Day’s Work: 4 Ways to Prepare for Working a Construction Job

January Unemployment Almost “Record Setting”

February 3, 2018 by Tim McMahon

January Unemployment is almost record setting… but not for the reason you might think.

On Friday February 2^nd the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly employment survey results for the month of January. According to the BLS the Seasonally Adjusted U-3 Unemployment Rate for January is unchanged for the almost record setting 4th month in a row. That’s right from October through January the Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment rate has been 4.1%. This is a very low level and we really don’t expect it to get too much lower but the interesting part is that the unadjusted U-3 was 3.9% from October through December (resulting in the adjusted rate being 4.1%) but then in January the unadjusted rate jumped to 4.5% (a 0.6% increase) and the adjusted U-3 remained the same at 4.1%. This is because typically January sees an uptick in unemployment as all the seasonal employees get laid-off. So we would expect some sort of uptick in unadjusted unemployment rate. But because the Seasonally Adjusted U3 was unchanged for the month the current increase in the unadjusted U-3 was actually no greater or less than normal. See Current Unemployment Chart for more info.

U-6 Unemployment

Over the same period, Unadjusted U-6 unemployment which is a broader measure of Unemployment including discouraged workers, climbed steadily.

It was 7.6% in October, then 7.7% in November, then 8.0% in December, and finally 8.9% in January.

This is still significantly better than a year ago when in November 2016 Unadjusted U-6 was 9% and had climbed to 10.1% by January 2017.

See Unadjusted U-6 unemployment for more info.

Employment

Over the last month, the actual number of people working (not seasonally adjusted) has decreased by [Read more…] about January Unemployment Almost “Record Setting”

“Just when you thought it was safe to go back in the water”…

January 24, 2018 by Tim McMahon

When Jaws 2 came out in 1978 the tagline was “Just when you thought it was safe to go back in the water”… well today I’d like to change that to say “Just when you thought it was safe to work at a desk” and look at 4 common injuries due to working at a desk. ~Tim McMahon, editor

Know the Risks! 4 Common Injuries Your Desk Job Could Give You

In recent years, more and more desk jobs have been popping up. Whether it be working in an office-type environment, or in a call center, office jobs seem to be the future. What many don’t realize, however, is that the number of injuries a desk job can cause. In order to educate you on the potential injuries that a desk job can give you, here’s a compiled a list of things to consider:

Carpal Tunnel Syndrome

The first, and most obvious, injury is carpal tunnel syndrome. If your office job involves a lot of typing, you can easily develop carpal tunnel over time—an unpleasant numbness caused by a pinched nerve. Many people might not realize it, but according to ninds.gov, carpal tunnel syndrome is more than 3 times as common in data-entry personnel.

In order to prevent carpal tunnel syndrome in your office job, ensure your posture is good and maintained throughout the day. You should also take occasional rests from typing when possible.

Eye Strain

For those working an office job with a computer, [Read more…] about “Just when you thought it was safe to go back in the water”…

Unemployment By State

January 18, 2018 by Tim McMahon

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ most recent data broken down by state (released in December for the month of November), Hawaii had the lowest unemployment at 2.0% followed by several Western States including North Dakota (2.6%), Nebraska (2.7%), Colorado, Idaho and Iowa all at 2.9%. Somehow New Hampshire managed to also be among the lowest also at 2.7% with Vermont at 2.9%.

Although California has been touted as having the fastest growing labor force it ranked number 35 in unemployment rates with unemployment at 4.6% well below the national average of 4.1%.

The following table lists the [Read more…] about Unemployment By State

How Companies Can Monitor and Anticipate Financial Trends

January 10, 2018 by Tim McMahon

Current and future financial trends play a massive role in the success or failure of businesses. Unless a company can accurately predict financial trends, it can be difficult to manage many aspects of a company, from sales to supplier sourcing. Imagine a company embarking on a new adventure to rehab and flip houses in 2008. The banking crisis that ensued would have guaranteed their failure. On the other hand it might have been a good time to open a business to help retrain laid-off workers for new positions. The following guide explores some of the methods that companies use to monitor and anticipate financial trends.

Internal Analysts

Large companies often have analysts that monitor a variety of market conditions. [Read more…] about How Companies Can Monitor and Anticipate Financial Trends

Keys to Advancing in Your Chosen Career

January 9, 2018 by Tim McMahon

Whether you work for an organization or run your own business, there are some skills that you can master to improve your chances for success. Interestingly, there are a few skills that no-matter what your industry, sector, or position, mastering these skills will help you to advance in your career.

1. Learn How to Network

People who want to succeed in business must learn how to network. Develop strong relationships with others to work your way up the ladder and take advantage of opportunities. However, the relationship must never seem forced or transactional. If you only reach out to people when you require something from them, they may feel as if they are being used and may cut ties with you altogether. The old adage that it is “better to give than receive” may sound like it has nothing to do with business but if you give first people are much more likely to reciprocate. Find out what they need and try to find ways to help them get it. Keep up with your contacts, it only takes a few minutes to send an email to say hello to a connection and ask how they are, and they’ll be more likely to help you when you need it, as a result.

2. Improve Your Presentation Skills

Presentations are a natural part of most businesses. You may have to undertake some form of public speaking at some point in your career. A public speaking course might, therefore, be the ideal solution to refine your delivery and pitches, so you appear to be a knowledgeable presenter and more confident in your approach. You should also use the best online presentation software to capture your audience’s attention and create engaging presentations.

3. Find a Mentor

A mentor can help guide you in [Read more…] about Keys to Advancing in Your Chosen Career

December Retail Employment Down

January 6, 2018 by Tim McMahon

On Friday January 5^th the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly employment survey results for the month of December. Many of the numbers remained unchanged from November which was also unchanged from October.

Unemployment

According to the BLS Seasonally Adjusted U-3 was 4.1% since October while Unadjusted U-3 was 3.9% for three months. Unadjusted U-6 unemployment which is a broader measure of Unemployment rose from 7.6% in October to 7.7% in November to 8.0% in December. This is still significantly better than a year ago when in November 2016 Unadjusted U-6 was 9% and December was 9.1%.

Typically January sees an uptick in unemployment as all the seasonal employees get laid-off. So we would expect some sort of uptick next month.

According to the BLS Commissioner’s report for this month:

“Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for teenagers declined to 13.6 percent in December, offsetting an increase in November. In December, the unemployment rates for adult men (3.8 percent), adult women (3.7 percent), Whites (3.7 percent), Blacks (6.8 percent), Asians (2.5 percent), and Hispanics (4.9 percent) showed little or no change.”

See: Current Unemployment Rate Chart for more info.

Employment

Back in October, employment was 147,952,000 in November it rose to 148,526,000 but then it fell slightly in December to 148,346,000 for a net loss from November to December of 180,000 jobs. The BLS Commissioner’s report however said, “Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 148,000 in December…” That is because he is talking about “Seasonally Adjusted” jobs. Meaning that although actual jobs are down, they are down by 148,000 less than average for this time of year.

See Current Employment Commentary and Historical Employment Commentary

Labor Force Participation Rate

You might be wondering if [Read more…] about December Retail Employment Down

Seeking to Succeed? 14 Ways to Get an Edge in the Business World

December 22, 2017 by Tim McMahon

No matter what field you are in there are some basic strategies that can help you succeed in life. Here are 14 things you can do to improve your chances for a successful life.

Set Smart Goals

If you’re really serious about succeeding in the business sector, make sure that you take the time to set goals. These goals will empower you to stay organized and focused on the specific objectives that you’re trying to accomplish through your career. Remember that without a clear plan, you can wind up wandering around in circles without completing any real business-building work that establishes you in your field. Note that the goals you set could be anything from qualifying for a promotion to meeting a specific sales goal. When you set goals, make sure that they are SMART:

Specific
Measurable
Attainable
Realistic
Time-Specific

Manage Your Time

In today’s society we have so many “time-saving” devices… we no longer have to spend hours going to the well to carry a bucket of water (although in some places in the world this is still a problem), we can just turn on a faucet. We don’t have to hand scrub the laundry, we have a machine to do that. We don’t have to go to the library we have the internet to learn anything. But with all these time saving devices we have many time-wasting devices… like the internet, online games, facebook, etc. The key to success is to use your time wisely. You only have so many hours… and days and years. Don’t waste them. Don’t let the time leeches steal your hours and days learn to manage your time wisely. The average person only spends 20% of their time doing the things that will help you get ahead and 80% of your time is “busy work”. Learn to avoid the “busy work” and focus on the important stuff and you will be miles ahead. Imagine if you could shift just 10% from the 80 column to the 20 column. You would be 50% more productive than the average person… that is a major advantage!

Learn to Speak in Public

Public speaking is a skill that will last your lifetime. Once you feel [Read more…] about Seeking to Succeed? 14 Ways to Get an Edge in the Business World