UnemploymentData.com

Your Source for Employment and Unemployment Data

Unemployment
You are here: Home / Archives for Tim McMahon

Tim McMahon, Editor of UnemploymentData.com

My grandfather lived through the Hyperinflation in Weimar, Germany--to say he was an original “gold bug” would be an understatement. I began reading his “hard money” newsletters at the age of 16 and the dividends from gold stocks helped put me through college. I began publishing the Financial Trend Forecaster paper newsletter in 1995 upon the death of James Moore editor of Your Window into the Future and the creator of the Moore Inflation Predictor©. FTF specializes in trends in the stock market, gold, inflation and bonds. In January of 2003, I began publishing InflationData.com to specialize in all forms of information about the nature of Inflation. In 2009, we added Elliott Wave University to help teach you the principles of Elliott Wave analysis. In January 2013, we began publishing OptioMoney. Connect with Tim on Google+.

Small Business Bookkeeping Solutions

by

As a small business, it might be difficult to handle all of your business responsibilities and do your accounting too. Most small businesses turn to an accounting program like Quickbooks but even that can get complicated in certain instances. So if you are having difficulty handling the accounting end of your business it is time to call in professional reinforcements. This could mean hiring a local bookkeeper or accountant or these days it could even mean hiring an online accountant.

4 Things to Look for When You Need Online Bookkeeping

Online BookkeeperIn today’s digital age, online bookkeeping has become increasingly popular among small business owners. It is not only convenient but also cost-effective. However, with so many options available, it can be challenging to find a reliable online bookkeeping service. Therefore, it is important to know what to look for when you need to outsource your bookkeeping tasks.

Experience and Expertise

One of the key factors in choosing an online bookkeeping service is their experience and expertise. Look for a company that has been providing bookkeeping services for a while and has a good track record. Also, consider the qualifications of their staff, including their education and certifications. A professional bookkeeping company with experienced and knowledgeable staff can provide valuable insights and advice to help your business grow. [Read more…] about Small Business Bookkeeping Solutions

Different Kinds of Self-Employment That Don’t Require Running a Business

by

If you’re considering self-employment, you may assume that running a business is your only option. While starting a business can be a great way to be your own boss and pursue your passions, it’s not the only way to go about being self-employed. In fact, there are many different ways to be self-employed that don’t require owning a business. Whether you’re looking to start a new career or are simply interested in exploring your options, here are a few different kinds of self-employment to consider.

Freelancing

FreelancerFreelancing involves offering your skills or expertise to others on a project-by-project basis. This can involve anything from writing to graphic design to consulting. As a freelancer, you can choose your own clients and projects, set your own rates, and enjoy the flexibility of working from home or wherever else you choose. While freelancing can be a great way to be self-employed, it does require some hustle to find clients and projects. To get started, consider setting up a portfolio website and networking with potential clients.

Contract work

Contract work is similar to freelancing, but typically involves larger projects or longer-term contracts. For example, you might work as a contract project manager or IT consultant for a company. As a contractor, you’ll typically be paid a flat rate for the duration of the contract, and may be responsible for covering your own expenses. While contract work can be lucrative, it does require finding and negotiating contract opportunities. [Read more…] about Different Kinds of Self-Employment That Don’t Require Running a Business

Skills and Certifications You Need To Become a Plumber

by

PlumberEveryone needs a plumber once in a while, so skilled plumbers are always in demand. It is a well-respected profession that requires skill, knowledge, and experience. As a plumber, you will be responsible for installing, repairing, and maintaining plumbing systems in residential, commercial, and industrial buildings. You’ll need some technical aptitude and the ability to problem solve quickly when problems arise. Without a doubt, being a plumber requires a variety of skills and a series of certifications. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the median annual wage for plumbers, pipefitters, and steamfitters was $59,880 in May 2021. And, most plumbers, pipefitters, and steamfitters learn on the job through an apprenticeship. Some attend a vocational-technical school before receiving on-the-job training. Most states require plumbers to be licensed.

If you enjoy working with your hands, a career in plumbing might be for you.

Skills:

Knowledge of Plumbing Systems

To become a plumber, you need to be well-versed in different plumbing systems. You will need to understand how all the pieces fit together and know how to troubleshoot when things go wrong. It’s essential to know the different parts that are used to set up pipes and how to install them correctly. According to Duvall Plumbing Heating and Cooling “Plumbing issues and accidents can be disastrous, costing thousands of dollars in damages.” So, a knowledgeable plumber can be essential to preventing expensive problems.

Attention to Detail

PlumbingPlumbing problems arise when parts are not installed or sealed correctly. Attention to detail is vital when addressing plumbing issues. To become a plumber, you’ll need to be meticulous and detail-oriented. You need to have the patience to conduct thorough inspections and testing to get to the core of the problem. [Read more…] about Skills and Certifications You Need To Become a Plumber

July 2023 Unemployment Down

by

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for July on August 4th 2023.

Adjusted Unemployment down Slightly

Current Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment

  • Adjusted U-3 was 3.5% down from 3.6%
  • Unadjusted U-3 was 3.8% unchanged
  • Unadjusted U-6 was 7.1% down from 7.2%
  • Labor Force Participation unchanged at 62.6%
  • Unadjusted Employment fell from 156.945 to 156.126 million

Summary:
Despite the fact that the adjusted U3 unemployment rate was down, and they claim more people were working
there were actually fewer people working in July than in June.
Total Employed went down from 156.945 million in June to only 156.126 million in July.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 187,000 in July, and the unemployment rate changed little at 3.5 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, social assistance, financial activities, and wholesale trade.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Employment Statistics Program (Formerly the Establishment Survey report) we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 155.963 million for June, which they adjusted to 156.945 million. So they subtracted 18,000 jobs for June. They are reporting 156.126 million jobs for July which is actually a decrease of 837,000 jobs based on their original estimates or a decrease of 819,000 based on their updated numbers. 

BLS Source

Current Employment Rate Chart

Adjusted Unemployment is at the pre-COVID 2019 cyclical lows of 3.5%. We’ve been saying that “typically, March or April has one of the lowest unemployment rates for the year, so we could see a slight increase from here without an actual deterioration of the labor market.”  And that is what happened before dropping slightly in July.  Current levels are still within the “Green Zone”.

Seasonally Adj U-3 Unemployment Rate 8-23

[Read more…] about July 2023 Unemployment Down

Things to Look for When Locating Your Business

by

Finding the perfect location for your business is crucial. It can make or break the success of your company. Whether you’re running a small café or a large corporation, choosing the right spot can be the difference between long-term success and failure.

So what should you be looking for when searching for the best location for your business? Here are some important factors to consider.

Demographics and Foot Traffic

Small Business StorefrontsUnderstanding your potential customer base and the foot traffic in the area is important. Consider your ideal target customer and what type of location will best serve their needs. Are they predominantly young people, families, or retirees?

Also, check the foot traffic of the area to understand how many people walk by your potential location. A location with a high volume of foot traffic is generally more desirable, no matter what sort of business you run.

Businesses that require a lot of foot traffic generally tend to be located in areas with high levels of pedestrian activity. This includes retail stores, restaurants, cafes and other businesses that require customers to come inside the establishment. These types of businesses benefit from being positioned where there is a large number of potential customers passing by on their daily activities.

Additionally, having an attractive storefront and ample signage can help draw more people into the business. Ultimately, businesses that require a lot of foot traffic should look for a location that is in an area with plenty of pedestrians and good visibility from the street.

Accessibility and Parking

Your location should be easily accessible for both you and your customers. Check any commercial real estate listing for good public transportation options, ample parking, and be accessible to drivers. If you do not have easy parking, you could limit the number of customers or employees who can come or create issues for those with disabilities.

If you find yourself in an area with limited parking, there are still ways to make your business accessible for customers and employees. You can offer incentives such as discounts or free parking vouchers to encourage people to use public transportation. You can also consider offering a valet service if possible so that customers don’t have to worry about finding a spot.

Additionally, you can look into working with local businesses to provide parking vouchers that are good for a certain amount of time. By taking these steps, you can help make your business more accessible and attract customers who may otherwise not visit due to parking issues. [Read more…] about Things to Look for When Locating Your Business

June 2023 Employment at All-Time High

by

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for June on July 7th 2023.

Adjusted Unemployment down Slightly

Adj U3 Icon 3-6

  • Adjusted U-3 was 3.6% down from 3.7%
  • Unadjusted U-3 was 3.8% up from 3.4%
  • Unadjusted U-6 was 7.2% Up from 6.4%
  • Labor Force Participation unchanged at 62.6%
  • Unadjusted Employment rose from 156.266 to 156.963 million

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 209,000 in June, and the unemployment rate changed little at 3.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in government, health care, social assistance, and construction… Both the unemployment rate, at 3.6 percent, and the number of unemployed persons, at 6.0 million, changed little in June. The unemployment rate has ranged from 3.4 percent to 3.7 percent since March 2022.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 156.306 million for May which they adjusted to 156.266 million. So, they subtracted 40,000 jobs for May. They are now reporting 156.963 million jobs for June which is actually an increase of 657,000 jobs based on their original estimates or an increase of 697,000 based on their updated numbers.

Current Employment Rate Chart

Adjusted Unemployment is slightly above the pre-COVID 2019 cyclical lows of 3.5%. We’ve been saying that “typically, March or April has one of the lowest unemployment rates for the year, so we could see a slight increase from here without an actual deterioration of the labor market.”  And that is precisely what is happening.  Current levels are still within the “Green Zone”.

Seasonally Adj U-3 Unemployment Rate (Colors)

[Read more…] about June 2023 Employment at All-Time High

What to Do When Your A/C Gives Out at Work

by

Overheating AC unitHaving the air conditioning unit act up in the middle of a hot day can really put a damper on your small business. Not only does it make for uncomfortable working conditions, but it also affects productivity levels as well. But before you start considering canceling the day, there are some steps you can take to fix the issue. This post will provide some tips on what to do when the AC gives out at your job.

Check the Thermostat Settings

One of the first things you should check when the AC unit stops working is the thermostat setting. Make sure it’s set to “cool” and not “off” or “heat”. You’d be surprised how often this is the culprit for a malfunctioning AC unit. Also, check that the temperature setting is lower than the current room temperature. If it is, the AC should kick in and start cooling the room.

To make sure your thermostat is running efficiently, it’s important to regularly clean and dust off the surface of the unit. This helps prevent dirt and particles from blocking the sensors and ensures that your AC runs at its best. You can also check for any loose wires or connections that may be causing an issue with the system. Additionally, try replacing the batteries if the thermostat is not responding as it should. These simple steps can help keep your AC running smoothly and efficiently no matter the time of year. [Read more…] about What to Do When Your A/C Gives Out at Work

Construction Consultants: What Are They and How to Work With Them

by

Construction consultants are professionals who work with construction companies to ensure that projects are completed on time and on budget, while also ensuring that the finished product is of high quality. They perform a variety of tasks including:

  1. Project Monitoring
  2. Document and Cost Review
  3. Cost to Completion Analysis
  4. Property Condition Assessments
  5. Lender Representation Services
  6. Other Specialty Services including Permit and Certificate Monitoring, Environmental Assessment, Asbestos and Lead Paint Assessment, Private Equity Representation and loan modifications,

To ensure that your project runs smoothly with the help of construction consultants, there are certain tips that you should keep in mind. In this article, we will discuss 3 essential tips that can help you work efficiently with construction consultants and achieve successful outcomes.

Tip #1: Communication is Key

Communication is KeyWhen working with a construction consultant, it is essential to establish clear lines of communication. The consultant should be included in all aspects of the project from the beginning to ensure that they have a clear understanding of the project’s objectives and requirements. Regular communication through scheduled meetings, emails, and phone calls can help ensure that everyone is on the same page and that the project stays on track.

It is important to keep in mind that the construction consultant is there to provide guidance and support to the construction team. As such, it is important to be open to their suggestions and recommendations. A good construction consultant can bring fresh ideas to the table and help the construction team overcome any obstacles that may arise during the project.

Tip #2: Start With a Clearly Defined Scope of Work

Before commencing any project, it is important to establish a clear scope of work. This should outline the specific tasks and milestones that are required to complete the project successfully. The construction consultant should be involved in this process, helping to ensure that the scope of work is realistic and achievable. [Read more…] about Construction Consultants: What Are They and How to Work With Them

May Employment and Unemployment Up?

by

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for May on June 2nd 2023.

Unemployment up Slightly 

Adj U3 Icon 3-7 up

  • Adjusted U-3 was 3.7% up from 3.4%
  • Unadjusted U-3 was 3.4% up from 3.1%
  • Unadjusted U-6 was 6.4% Up from 6.1%
  • Labor Force Participation unchanged at 62.6%
  • Unadjusted Employment rose from 155.386 to 156.303 million

 

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 339,000 in May, and the unemployment rate rose by 0.3 percentage point to 3.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.
Job gains occurred in professional and business services, government, health care, construction, transportation and warehousing, and social assistance.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Establishment Survey report, we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 155.337 million for April which they adjusted to 155.386 million. So they added 49,000 jobs for April. They are reporting 156.306 million jobs for May which is actually an increase of 969,000 jobs based on their original estimates or an increase of 920,000 based on their updated numbers. 

Current Employment Rate Chart

Adjusted Unemployment is slightly above the pre-COVID 2019 cyclical lows of 3.5%. We’ve been saying that “typically, March or April has one of the lowest unemployment rates for the year, so we could see a slight increase from here without an actual deterioration of the labor market.”  And that is precisely what is happening.  Current levels are within the “Green Zone”.

Seasonally Adj U-3 Unemployment Rate

[Read more…] about May Employment and Unemployment Up?

April Employment Nears All-Time Highs

by

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for April on May 5th 2023.

Employment Near All-Time High 

Seasonally Adjusted U3 down to 3.4%

  • Adjusted U-3 was 3.4% down from 3.5%
  • Unadjusted U-3 was 3.1% down from 3.6%
  • Unadjusted U-6 was 6.1% Down from 6.8%
  • Labor Force Participation unchanged at 62.6%
  • Unadjusted Employment rose from 154.445 million to 155.337 million

 

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 253,000 in April, and the unemployment rate changed little at 3.4 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in professional and business services, health care, leisure and hospitality, and social assistance.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Establishment Survey report, we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 154.517 million for March which they adjusted to 154.445 million. So they subtracted 72,000 jobs for March. They are now reporting 155.337 million jobs for April, which is an increase of 820,000 based on their original estimates or an increase of 892,000 based on their updated numbers. 

Current Employment Rate Chart

November 2022 had the highest number of people employed in the history of the United States at 155,642,000. Then the typical January slump hit, taking employment down by roughly 3 million. But now employment is once again nearing that high. And if history is any indicator, we can expect employment to peak in June above November’s level before taking another breather. So far, as of April, employment is just a little over 300,000 shy of the all-time high. One way we can tell if the economy is beginning to falter is if the June high doesn’t exceed the previous November, or if November 2023 employment doesn’t exceed June 2023.

Current Employment ChartSee Current Employment for more info.

Full Employment?

Last month we said, “Full Employment is when everyone who wants a job has one. It is generally considered to be slightly above 3%. Although, other factors, such as unemployment benefits, can shift the level higher or lower. So, if unemployment benefits are extended from 6 months to 1 year, people will tend to stay unemployed longer, thus raising the unemployment rate.”

The following chart shows four examples of employment continuing to rise, but unemployment flattens out at just over 3%. Currently, the unadjusted unemployment rate is at 3.1%, as close to the theoretical full employment as you can get. Over the next few months, we will see how well reality relates to theory and if unemployment can actually get below 3%.

Note: The Unemployment rate is inverted to track the employment rate, neither is Seasonally Adjusted.

Employment vs Unemployment Chart

Full employment is not considered to be at zero percent because even when employers are having difficulty finding employees, some people are still unemployed due to either structural unemployment (mismatch between worker skills and job requirements, i.e., not enough training) or simply because they quit their job knowing it would be easy to find another (hopefully better) job. Often referred to as frictional unemployment (there will always be people who have quit or have lost a seasonal job and are in the process of getting a new job). See: Highly Skilled Worker Shortage in a Recession?

If the unemployment rate stays constant, but more people are working, where are these extra workers coming from?

Somehow the workforce has to be growing to accommodate these newly created jobs. They could be long-term unemployed (no longer counted in the workforce) returning to the workforce, they could be immigrants entering the workforce, or possibly retired people coming out of retirement because of an offer too good to turn down. This is generally facilitated by rising wages, but this month’s ADP report indicates that wage growth has slowed, possibly indicating that we are nearing the end of this boom.

Reasons for Unemployment

As we can see from the following chart, Job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs (black line) always creates some job turnover (i.e. temporary unemployment), although this month the level of turnover decreased somewhat. There is also a steady stream of reentrants, new entrants, and those on temporary layoff.

Reasons for unemployment

Duration of Unemployment

If the duration of unemployment begins climbing, it generally indicates a worsening economic climate. The following chart shows a falling less than 5 weeks of unemployment (which could indicate people are starting to be unemployed for longer times or simply that it is easy to find a new job). 5-14 week unemployment rose slightly, 15-26 week unemployment fell, and 27 weeks and over was relatively unchanged. The trouble starts when 15-26 week unemployment begins rising, followed by longer-term unemployment.

Duration of Unemployment The following chart shows an uptick in the percentage of people unemployed 27 weeks or longer, which could be an early warning indicator.

Unemployed 27+ weeks

ADP® National Employment Report

ADP provides an independent (non-government) estimate of private-sector employment and pay, based on data derived from ADP client payrolls. According to ADP®, In collaboration with Stanford Digital Economy Lab, private employment was up in April.

ADP: Private employers added 296,000 jobs in April compared to 145,000 jobs in March.

ADP Employment Comments

 

Ms. Richardson is saying that although employers are still hiring, upward pressure on salaries has eased somewhat.

I’ve added some arrows to the ADP private employment chart, to indicate the slope of the line. The long green arrow shows the rapid post-COVID rebound in employment. Then in early 2022, the rate of increase slowed (small yellow arrow). Then around March 2022, the rate of increase picked up again (small green arrow). More recently, the rate of growth has moderated, possibly due to nearing full employment. As long as the slope is upward, the economy is still growing, despite the difficulty in finding qualified employees.

 

ADP Private Employment by Firm Size

ADP also lists increases by “firm size”.
This month, all-size companies added employees. Last month the only one that decreased was companies with 250-499 employees.

April ADP Changes:

Change by Est Size for Apr 2023

 

ADP Also Tracks Salary Changes:

[Read more…] about April Employment Nears All-Time Highs