Tim McMahon, Editor of UnemploymentData.com

My grandfather lived through the Hyperinflation in Weimar, Germany--to say he was an original “gold bug” would be an understatement. I began reading his “hard money” newsletters at the age of 16 and the dividends from gold stocks helped put me through college. I began publishing the Financial Trend Forecaster paper newsletter in 1995 upon the death of James Moore editor of Your Window into the Future and the creator of the Moore Inflation Predictor©. FTF specializes in trends in the stock market, gold, inflation and bonds. In January of 2003, I began publishing InflationData.com to specialize in all forms of information about the nature of Inflation. In 2009, we added Elliott Wave University to help teach you the principles of Elliott Wave analysis. In January 2013, we began publishing OptioMoney. Connect with Tim on Google+.

Things to Look for When Locating Your Business

July 28, 2023 by Tim McMahon

Finding the perfect location for your business is crucial. It can make or break the success of your company. Whether you’re running a small café or a large corporation, choosing the right spot can be the difference between long-term success and failure.

So what should you be looking for when searching for the best location for your business? Here are some important factors to consider.

Demographics and Foot Traffic

Understanding your potential customer base and the foot traffic in the area is important. Consider your ideal target customer and what type of location will best serve their needs. Are they predominantly young people, families, or retirees?

Also, check the foot traffic of the area to understand how many people walk by your potential location. A location with a high volume of foot traffic is generally more desirable, no matter what sort of business you run.

Businesses that require a lot of foot traffic generally tend to be located in areas with high levels of pedestrian activity. This includes retail stores, restaurants, cafes and other businesses that require customers to come inside the establishment. These types of businesses benefit from being positioned where there is a large number of potential customers passing by on their daily activities.

Additionally, having an attractive storefront and ample signage can help draw more people into the business. Ultimately, businesses that require a lot of foot traffic should look for a location that is in an area with plenty of pedestrians and good visibility from the street.

Accessibility and Parking

Your location should be easily accessible for both you and your customers. Check any commercial real estate listing for good public transportation options, ample parking, and be accessible to drivers. If you do not have easy parking, you could limit the number of customers or employees who can come or create issues for those with disabilities.

If you find yourself in an area with limited parking, there are still ways to make your business accessible for customers and employees. You can offer incentives such as discounts or free parking vouchers to encourage people to use public transportation. You can also consider offering a valet service if possible so that customers don’t have to worry about finding a spot.

Additionally, you can look into working with local businesses to provide parking vouchers that are good for a certain amount of time. By taking these steps, you can help make your business more accessible and attract customers who may otherwise not visit due to parking issues. [Read more…] about Things to Look for When Locating Your Business

June 2023 Employment at All-Time High

July 8, 2023 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for June on July 7^th2023.

Adjusted Unemployment down Slightly

Adjusted U-3 was 3.6% down from 3.7%
Unadjusted U-3 was 3.8% up from 3.4%
Unadjusted U-6 was 7.2% Up from 6.4%
Labor Force Participation unchanged at 62.6%
Unadjusted Employment rose from 156.266 to 156.963 million

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 209,000 in June, and the unemployment rate changed little at 3.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in government, health care, social assistance, and construction… Both the unemployment rate, at 3.6 percent, and the number of unemployed persons, at 6.0 million, changed little in June. The unemployment rate has ranged from 3.4 percent to 3.7 percent since March 2022.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 156.306 million for May which they adjusted to 156.266 million. So, they subtracted 40,000 jobs for May. They are now reporting 156.963 million jobs for June which is actually an increase of 657,000 jobs based on their original estimates or an increase of 697,000 based on their updated numbers.

Current Employment Rate Chart

Adjusted Unemployment is slightly above the pre-COVID 2019 cyclical lows of 3.5%. We’ve been saying that “typically, March or April has one of the lowest unemployment rates for the year, so we could see a slight increase from here without an actual deterioration of the labor market.” And that is precisely what is happening. Current levels are still within the “Green Zone”.

What to Do When Your A/C Gives Out at Work

July 5, 2023 by Tim McMahon

Having the air conditioning unit act up in the middle of a hot day can really put a damper on your small business. Not only does it make for uncomfortable working conditions, but it also affects productivity levels as well. But before you start considering canceling the day, there are some steps you can take to fix the issue. This post will provide some tips on what to do when the AC gives out at your job.

Check the Thermostat Settings

One of the first things you should check when the AC unit stops working is the thermostat setting. Make sure it’s set to “cool” and not “off” or “heat”. You’d be surprised how often this is the culprit for a malfunctioning AC unit. Also, check that the temperature setting is lower than the current room temperature. If it is, the AC should kick in and start cooling the room.

To make sure your thermostat is running efficiently, it’s important to regularly clean and dust off the surface of the unit. This helps prevent dirt and particles from blocking the sensors and ensures that your AC runs at its best. You can also check for any loose wires or connections that may be causing an issue with the system. Additionally, try replacing the batteries if the thermostat is not responding as it should. These simple steps can help keep your AC running smoothly and efficiently no matter the time of year. [Read more…] about What to Do When Your A/C Gives Out at Work

Construction Consultants: What Are They and How to Work With Them

June 9, 2023 by Tim McMahon

Construction consultants are professionals who work with construction companies to ensure that projects are completed on time and on budget, while also ensuring that the finished product is of high quality. They perform a variety of tasks including:

Project Monitoring
Document and Cost Review
Cost to Completion Analysis
Property Condition Assessments
Lender Representation Services
Other Specialty Services including Permit and Certificate Monitoring, Environmental Assessment, Asbestos and Lead Paint Assessment, Private Equity Representation and loan modifications,

To ensure that your project runs smoothly with the help of construction consultants, there are certain tips that you should keep in mind. In this article, we will discuss 3 essential tips that can help you work efficiently with construction consultants and achieve successful outcomes.

Tip #1: Communication is Key

When working with a construction consultant, it is essential to establish clear lines of communication. The consultant should be included in all aspects of the project from the beginning to ensure that they have a clear understanding of the project’s objectives and requirements. Regular communication through scheduled meetings, emails, and phone calls can help ensure that everyone is on the same page and that the project stays on track.

It is important to keep in mind that the construction consultant is there to provide guidance and support to the construction team. As such, it is important to be open to their suggestions and recommendations. A good construction consultant can bring fresh ideas to the table and help the construction team overcome any obstacles that may arise during the project.

Tip #2: Start With a Clearly Defined Scope of Work

Before commencing any project, it is important to establish a clear scope of work. This should outline the specific tasks and milestones that are required to complete the project successfully. The construction consultant should be involved in this process, helping to ensure that the scope of work is realistic and achievable. [Read more…] about Construction Consultants: What Are They and How to Work With Them

May Employment and Unemployment Up?

June 3, 2023 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for May on June 2^nd2023.

Unemployment up Slightly

Adjusted U-3 was 3.7% up from 3.4%
Unadjusted U-3 was 3.4% up from 3.1%
Unadjusted U-6 was 6.4% Up from 6.1%
Labor Force Participation unchanged at 62.6%
Unadjusted Employment rose from 155.386 to 156.303 million

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 339,000 in May, and the unemployment rate rose by 0.3 percentage point to 3.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.
Job gains occurred in professional and business services, government, health care, construction, transportation and warehousing, and social assistance.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Establishment Survey report, we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 155.337 million for April which they adjusted to 155.386 million. So they added 49,000 jobs for April. They are reporting 156.306 million jobs for May which is actually an increase of 969,000 jobs based on their original estimates or an increase of 920,000 based on their updated numbers.

Current Employment Rate Chart

April Employment Nears All-Time Highs

May 6, 2023 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for April on May 5^th2023.

Employment Near All-Time High

Adjusted U-3 was 3.4% down from 3.5%
Unadjusted U-3 was 3.1% down from 3.6%
Unadjusted U-6 was 6.1% Down from 6.8%
Labor Force Participation unchanged at 62.6%
Unadjusted Employment rose from 154.445 million to 155.337 million

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 253,000 in April, and the unemployment rate changed little at 3.4 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in professional and business services, health care, leisure and hospitality, and social assistance.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Establishment Survey report, we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 154.517 million for March which they adjusted to 154.445 million. So they subtracted 72,000 jobs for March. They are now reporting 155.337 million jobs for April, which is an increase of 820,000 based on their original estimates or an increase of 892,000 based on their updated numbers.

Current Employment Rate Chart

November 2022 had the highest number of people employed in the history of the United States at 155,642,000. Then the typical January slump hit, taking employment down by roughly 3 million. But now employment is once again nearing that high. And if history is any indicator, we can expect employment to peak in June above November’s level before taking another breather. So far, as of April, employment is just a little over 300,000 shy of the all-time high. One way we can tell if the economy is beginning to falter is if the June high doesn’t exceed the previous November, or if November 2023 employment doesn’t exceed June 2023.

See Current Employment for more info.

Full Employment?

Last month we said, “Full Employment is when everyone who wants a job has one. It is generally considered to be slightly above 3%. Although, other factors, such as unemployment benefits, can shift the level higher or lower. So, if unemployment benefits are extended from 6 months to 1 year, people will tend to stay unemployed longer, thus raising the unemployment rate.”

The following chart shows four examples of employment continuing to rise, but unemployment flattens out at just over 3%. Currently, the unadjusted unemployment rate is at 3.1%, as close to the theoretical full employment as you can get. Over the next few months, we will see how well reality relates to theory and if unemployment can actually get below 3%.

Note: The Unemployment rate is inverted to track the employment rate, neither is Seasonally Adjusted.

Full employment is not considered to be at zero percent because even when employers are having difficulty finding employees, some people are still unemployed due to either structural unemployment (mismatch between worker skills and job requirements, i.e., not enough training) or simply because they quit their job knowing it would be easy to find another (hopefully better) job. Often referred to as frictional unemployment (there will always be people who have quit or have lost a seasonal job and are in the process of getting a new job). See: Highly Skilled Worker Shortage in a Recession?

If the unemployment rate stays constant, but more people are working, where are these extra workers coming from?

Somehow the workforce has to be growing to accommodate these newly created jobs. They could be long-term unemployed (no longer counted in the workforce) returning to the workforce, they could be immigrants entering the workforce, or possibly retired people coming out of retirement because of an offer too good to turn down. This is generally facilitated by rising wages, but this month’s ADP report indicates that wage growth has slowed, possibly indicating that we are nearing the end of this boom.

Reasons for Unemployment

As we can see from the following chart, Job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs (black line) always creates some job turnover (i.e. temporary unemployment), although this month the level of turnover decreased somewhat. There is also a steady stream of reentrants, new entrants, and those on temporary layoff.

Duration of Unemployment

If the duration of unemployment begins climbing, it generally indicates a worsening economic climate. The following chart shows a falling less than 5 weeks of unemployment (which could indicate people are starting to be unemployed for longer times or simply that it is easy to find a new job). 5-14 week unemployment rose slightly, 15-26 week unemployment fell, and 27 weeks and over was relatively unchanged. The trouble starts when 15-26 week unemployment begins rising, followed by longer-term unemployment.

The following chart shows an uptick in the percentage of people unemployed 27 weeks or longer, which could be an early warning indicator.

ADP^® National Employment Report

ADP provides an independent (non-government) estimate of private-sector employment and pay, based on data derived from ADP client payrolls. According to ADP®, In collaboration with Stanford Digital Economy Lab, private employment was up in April.

ADP: Private employers added 296,000 jobs in April compared to 145,000 jobs in March.

Ms. Richardson is saying that although employers are still hiring, upward pressure on salaries has eased somewhat.

I’ve added some arrows to the ADP private employment chart, to indicate the slope of the line. The long green arrow shows the rapid post-COVID rebound in employment. Then in early 2022, the rate of increase slowed (small yellow arrow). Then around March 2022, the rate of increase picked up again (small green arrow). More recently, the rate of growth has moderated, possibly due to nearing full employment. As long as the slope is upward, the economy is still growing, despite the difficulty in finding qualified employees.

ADP Private Employment by Firm Size

ADP also lists increases by “firm size”.
This month, all-size companies added employees. Last month the only one that decreased was companies with 250-499 employees.

April ADP Changes:

ADP Also Tracks Salary Changes:

Work Injury? Short-Term Income Options While You Mend

April 14, 2023 by Tim McMahon

Unfortunately, Job injuries do happen. If you find yourself in this position, don’t fret; there are several options available to help supplement your income while you take time off from work to heal and mend. Let’s review some of these short-term options for supplemental income.

Workers’ Compensation

If you are injured due to your job or workplace, you may be eligible for workers’ compensation benefits. Workers’ compensation is a federal program that provides money to employees who suffer on-the-job injuries or illnesses and death benefits to families in the event of a worker’s death related to their job. Workers’ compensation aims to provide financial aid and reimbursement for medical expenses so that an employee can focus on healing and recovery without worrying about basic needs such as shelter, food, and clothing.

Each state has its own laws regarding workers’ compensation eligibility criteria and benefit amounts. Contact your state’s Department of Labor or consult with an attorney specializing in workplace injury cases for more information about workers’ compensation benefits in your state.

Social Security Disability

If your injury is expected to keep you out of work for a long period of time, you may be eligible for Social Security disability benefits. These benefits are designed to provide financial support when someone can no longer work due to a disability or illness that is expected to last for at least 12 months or result in death. [Read more…] about Work Injury? Short-Term Income Options While You Mend

March: Full Employment?

April 8, 2023 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for March on April 7^th2023.

Employment Up and Unemployment Down

Adjusted U-3 was 3.5% down from 3.6%
Unadjusted U-3 was 3.6% down from 3.9%
Unadjusted U-6 was Down from 7.3% to 6.8%
Labor Force Participation Up from 62.5% to 62.6%
Unadjusted Employment rose from 153.997 to 154.517 million

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 236,000 in March, and the unemployment rate changed little at 3.5 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.
Employment continued to trend up in leisure and hospitality, government, professional and business services, and health care.”
You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 153.955 million for February which they adjusted to 153.997 million. So they added 42,000 jobs for February. They are reporting 154.517 million jobs for March which is actually an increase of 562,000 jobs based on their original estimates or an increase of 520,000 based on their updated numbers.

Full Employment?

Full Employment is when everyone who wants a job has one. It is generally considered to be slightly above 3%. Although, other factors, such as unemployment benefits, can shift the level higher or lower. So, if unemployment benefits are extended from 6 months to 1 year, people will tend to stay unemployed longer, thus raising the unemployment rate.

In the following chart, we can see four examples of employment continuing to rise, but unemployment flattens out at just over 3%.

If the unemployment rate stays constant, but more people are working, where are these extra workers coming from?

ADP^® National Employment Report

According to ADP® In collaboration with Stanford Digital Economy Lab, private employment was up in March.

ADP: Private employers added 145,000 jobs in March.

In other words, Ms. Richardson is saying that a 145,000 increase in jobs is not as high as she would have expected for a March with strong growth. And “pay growth” has plateaued and decreased slightly. Last month, “Job stayers” averaged a 7.2% annual increase in pay, while this month, the average annual increase is down to 6.9%.

I’ve added some arrows to their private employment chart to indicate the slope of the line. The long green arrow shows the rapid post-COVID rebound in employment. Then in early 2022, the rate of increase slowed (small yellow arrow). Then around March 2022, the rate of increase picked up again (small green arrow). Perhaps, that is what Ms. Richardson was expecting. But instead, we’ve seen steady growth without the turbo boost of last year.

ADP Private Employment by Firm Size

ADP also lists increases by “firm size”.
This month, small companies are reversing the downsizing they did last month, while larger companies cut way back on their hiring.

March ADP Changes:

Comparing March changes to February changes we can see that increases shifted from large firm hiring to small firm hiring.

February ADP Changes:

ADP Also Tracks Salary Changes:

February 2023 Unemployment Report

March 11, 2023 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for February on March 10^th2023.

Employment Up and Unemployment Up?

Unadjusted Employment rose from 152.836 million to 153.955 million
Labor Force Participation rose from 62.4% to 62.5%
Adjusted U-3 rose from 3.4% to 3.6%
Unadjusted U-3 unchanged at 3.9%
Unadjusted U-6 fell from 7.4% to 7.3%

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 311,000 in February, and the unemployment rate edged up to 3.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, retail trade, government, and health care. Employment declined in information and in transportation and warehousing.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report, we see…

Originally the BLS reported employment of 152.844 million for January, which they adjusted down slightly to 152.836 million.

The current estimate for February is 153.955 million which is up 1.11 million from the original number and up 1.12 million from the revised numbers. According to the BLS, this increase didn’t change the unadjusted U-3 number and actually resulted in an increase in unemployment on a seasonally adjusted basis.

ADP^® National Employment Report

According to ADP In collaboration with Stanford Digital Economy Lab, private employment was up from January to February by 242,000.

ADP: Private employers added 242,000 jobs in February

ADP also lists increases by “firm size” and they posted this comment:

Job gains are solid and wage growth remains elevated. A particular area of weakness is with small establishments, which shed jobs every month since August 2022.

But their December report showed small businesses gaining.

December Changes:

February Changes:

ADP Also Tracks Salary Changes:

Why Becoming a Flooring Installer is a Stable Career Path

February 24, 2023 by Tim McMahon

Floor installation is a trade that has been around for centuries. The need to cover floors in homes and businesses has never gone away, and it’s highly unlikely that the demand will diminish in the future. As a floor installer, you can enjoy job security, the opportunity for career growth, and the satisfaction of providing quality services to satisfied customers. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Flooring Installers and Tile and Stone Setters lay and finish carpet, wood, vinyl, tile, and other materials, and they earned an average of $22.74/hr in 2021.

Job Security

The need to cover floors with hardwood, carpet, tile, linoleum, or concrete will always be in demand. People want their homes and businesses to look beautiful and presentable, which means they rely on floor installers to make it happen. Plus, floor installation isn’t just about covering surfaces; it also involves making repairs when necessary or completely replacing floors as needed. This means that your skills are continually in demand – no matter what type of economy we’re living in! As of this writing, flooring companies like Sandmasters Hardwood Floors Inc. in Wisconsin are desperate for help and are offering starting salaries of $40,000 per year with many other benefits. Companies in higher living cost areas like New York or California will pay even more. [Read more…] about Why Becoming a Flooring Installer is a Stable Career Path

Tim McMahon, Editor of UnemploymentData.com

Demographics and Foot Traffic

Accessibility and Parking

Adjusted Unemployment down Slightly

Current Employment Rate Chart

Check the Thermostat Settings

Tip #1: Communication is Key

Tip #2: Start With a Clearly Defined Scope of Work

Unemployment up Slightly

Current Employment Rate Chart

Employment Near All-Time High

Current Employment Rate Chart

Full Employment?

If the unemployment rate stays constant, but more people are working, where are these extra workers coming from?

Reasons for Unemployment

Duration of Unemployment

ADP® National Employment Report

ADP: Private employers added 296,000 jobs in April compared to 145,000 jobs in March.

ADP Private Employment by Firm Size

April ADP Changes:

ADP Also Tracks Salary Changes:

Workers’ Compensation

Social Security Disability

Employment Up and Unemployment Down

Full Employment?

If the unemployment rate stays constant, but more people are working, where are these extra workers coming from?

ADP® National Employment Report

ADP: Private employers added 145,000 jobs in March.

ADP Private Employment by Firm Size

March ADP Changes:

February ADP Changes:

ADP Also Tracks Salary Changes:

Employment Up and Unemployment Up?

ADP® National Employment Report

ADP: Private employers added 242,000 jobs in February

December Changes:

February Changes:

ADP Also Tracks Salary Changes:

Job Security

ADP^® National Employment Report

ADP^® National Employment Report

ADP^® National Employment Report