UnemploymentData.com

Your Source for Employment and Unemployment Data

Unemployment
You are here: Home / Archives for Tim McMahon

Tim McMahon, Editor of UnemploymentData.com

My grandfather lived through the Hyperinflation in Weimar, Germany--to say he was an original “gold bug” would be an understatement. I began reading his “hard money” newsletters at the age of 16 and the dividends from gold stocks helped put me through college. I began publishing the Financial Trend Forecaster paper newsletter in 1995 upon the death of James Moore editor of Your Window into the Future and the creator of the Moore Inflation Predictor©. FTF specializes in trends in the stock market, gold, inflation and bonds. In January of 2003, I began publishing InflationData.com to specialize in all forms of information about the nature of Inflation. In 2009, we added Elliott Wave University to help teach you the principles of Elliott Wave analysis. In January 2013, we began publishing OptioMoney. Connect with Tim on Google+.

Work Injury? Short-Term Income Options While You Mend

by

Unfortunately, Job injuries do happen. If you find yourself in this position, don’t fret; there are several options available to help supplement your income while you take time off from work to heal and mend. Let’s review some of these short-term options for supplemental income.

Workers’ Compensation

Work Injury - Leg Cast

If you are injured due to your job or workplace, you may be eligible for workers’ compensation benefits. Workers’ compensation is a federal program that provides money to employees who suffer on-the-job injuries or illnesses and death benefits to families in the event of a worker’s death related to their job. Workers’ compensation aims to provide financial aid and reimbursement for medical expenses so that an employee can focus on healing and recovery without worrying about basic needs such as shelter, food, and clothing.

Each state has its own laws regarding workers’ compensation eligibility criteria and benefit amounts. Contact your state’s Department of Labor or consult with an attorney specializing in workplace injury cases for more information about workers’ compensation benefits in your state.

Social Security Disability

Social Security administration

If your injury is expected to keep you out of work for a long period of time, you may be eligible for Social Security disability benefits. These benefits are designed to provide financial support when someone can no longer work due to a disability or illness that is expected to last for at least 12 months or result in death. [Read more…] about Work Injury? Short-Term Income Options While You Mend

March: Full Employment?

by

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for March on April 7th 2023.

Employment Up and Unemployment Down

Current Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment

  • Adjusted U-3 was 3.5% down from 3.6%
  • Unadjusted U-3 was 3.6% down from 3.9%
  • Unadjusted U-6 was Down from 7.3% to 6.8%
  • Labor Force Participation Up from 62.5% to 62.6%
  • Unadjusted Employment rose from 153.997 to 154.517 million

 

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 236,000 in March, and the unemployment rate changed little at 3.5 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. 
Employment continued to trend up in leisure and hospitality, government, professional and business services, and health care.”
You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 153.955 million for February which they adjusted to 153.997 million. So they added 42,000 jobs for February. They are reporting 154.517 million jobs for March which is actually an increase of 562,000 jobs based on their original estimates or an increase of 520,000 based on their updated numbers.

Full Employment?

Full Employment is when everyone who wants a job has one. It is generally considered to be slightly above 3%. Although, other factors, such as unemployment benefits, can shift the level higher or lower. So, if unemployment benefits are extended from 6 months to 1 year, people will tend to stay unemployed longer, thus raising the unemployment rate.

In the following chart, we can see four examples of employment continuing to rise, but unemployment flattens out at just over 3%.

Emp vs Unemployment Chart

Full employment is not considered to be at zero percent because even when employers are having difficulty finding employees, some people are still unemployed due to either structural unemployment (mismatch between worker skills and job requirements, i.e., not enough training) or simply because they quit their job knowing it would be easy to find another (hopefully better) job. Often referred to as frictional unemployment (there will always be people who have quit or have lost a seasonal job and are in the process of getting a new job). See: Highly Skilled Worker Shortage in a Recession?

If the unemployment rate stays constant, but more people are working, where are these extra workers coming from?

Somehow the workforce has to be growing to accommodate these newly created jobs. They could be long-term unemployed (no longer counted in the workforce) returning to the workforce, they could be immigrants entering the workforce, or possibly retired people coming out of retirement because of an offer too good to turn down.

ADP® National Employment Report

According to ADP® In collaboration with Stanford Digital Economy Lab, private employment was up in March.

ADP: Private employers added 145,000 jobs in March.

ADP Economist

In other words, Ms. Richardson is saying that a 145,000 increase in jobs is not as high as she would have expected for a March with strong growth. And “pay growth” has plateaued and decreased slightly. Last month, “Job stayers” averaged a 7.2% annual increase in pay, while this month, the average annual increase is down to 6.9%.

I’ve added some arrows to their private employment chart to indicate the slope of the line. The long green arrow shows the rapid post-COVID rebound in employment. Then in early 2022, the rate of increase slowed (small yellow arrow). Then around March 2022, the rate of increase picked up again (small green arrow). Perhaps, that is what Ms. Richardson was expecting. But instead, we’ve seen steady growth without the turbo boost of last year.

ADP us-private-employment cHART

ADP Private Employment by Firm Size

ADP also lists increases by “firm size”.
This month, small companies are reversing the downsizing they did last month, while larger companies cut way back on their hiring.

March ADP Changes:

Change by Est Size for Mar 2023

Comparing March changes to February changes we can see that increases shifted from large firm hiring to small firm hiring.

February ADP Changes:

Change by Est Size for Feb 2023

ADP Also Tracks Salary Changes:

[Read more…] about March: Full Employment?

February 2023 Unemployment Report

by

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for February on March 10th 2023.

Employment Up and Unemployment Up? 

Adj U3 Icon 3-6 up

 

  • Unadjusted Employment rose from 152.836 million to 153.955 million
  • Labor Force Participation rose from 62.4% to 62.5%
  • Adjusted U-3 rose from 3.4% to 3.6%
  • Unadjusted U-3 unchanged at 3.9%
  • Unadjusted U-6 fell from 7.4% to 7.3%

 

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 311,000 in February, and the unemployment rate edged up to 3.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, retail trade, government, and health care. Employment declined in information and in transportation and warehousing.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report, we see…

Originally the BLS reported employment of 152.844 million for January, which they adjusted down slightly to 152.836 million.

The current estimate for February is 153.955 million which is up 1.11 million from the original number and up 1.12 million from the revised numbers. According to the BLS, this increase didn’t change the unadjusted U-3 number and actually resulted in an increase in unemployment on a seasonally adjusted basis.

ADP® National Employment Report

According to ADP In collaboration with Stanford Digital Economy Lab, private employment was up from January to February by 242,000.

ADP: Private employers added 242,000 jobs in February

Nela Richardson Feb 2023

 

ADP also lists increases by “firm size” and they posted this comment:

  • Job gains are solid and wage growth remains elevated. A particular area of weakness is with small establishments, which shed jobs every month since August 2022.

But their December report showed small businesses gaining.

December Changes:

ADP Change by Establishment Size

February Changes:

 

Change by Est Size for Feb 2023

ADP Also Tracks Salary Changes:

[Read more…] about February 2023 Unemployment Report

Why Becoming a Flooring Installer is a Stable Career Path

by

Flooring InstallationFloor installation is a trade that has been around for centuries. The need to cover floors in homes and businesses has never gone away, and it’s highly unlikely that the demand will diminish in the future. As a floor installer, you can enjoy job security, the opportunity for career growth, and the satisfaction of providing quality services to satisfied customers. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Flooring Installers and Tile and Stone Setters lay and finish carpet, wood, vinyl, tile, and other materials, and they earned an average of $22.74/hr in 2021.

Job Security

The need to cover floors with hardwood, carpet, tile, linoleum, or concrete will always be in demand. People want their homes and businesses to look beautiful and presentable, which means they rely on floor installers to make it happen. Plus, floor installation isn’t just about covering surfaces; it also involves making repairs when necessary or completely replacing floors as needed. This means that your skills are continually in demand – no matter what type of economy we’re living in! As of this writing, flooring companies like Sandmasters Hardwood Floors Inc. in Wisconsin are desperate for help and are offering starting salaries of $40,000 per year with many other benefits. Companies in higher living cost areas like New York or California will pay even more. [Read more…] about Why Becoming a Flooring Installer is a Stable Career Path

Strategies for Conquering Job Search Frustration

by

Job hunting can be a long and frustrating process. It’s easy to feel overwhelmed with the number of applications you need to fill out, interviews you need to attend, and rejections you receive. However, it is possible to stay positive throughout your job search journey if you have the right strategies in place. Read on for some tips on how to ease job-hunting frustration.

Maintain Perspective

job hunting strategiesIt’s important to keep in mind that a job search is just one small part of your life. Don’t let it consume all your thoughts or take away from other activities you enjoy doing. Make sure you take time out of each day for hobbies, relaxation, and fun with family and friends—activities that will help maintain balance and perspective in your life. Speaking of family and friends, hopefully they are being supportive of your efforts. You should also enlist their suggestions, referrals and leads on available jobs. One of the best ways to find a job is to be recommended by someone who already works there. So, network, network, network to get a good reference from someone the company already trusts.

Set Realistic Expectations

Having realistic expectations will go a long way toward helping you manage stress during a job search. It’s important to remember that there are many factors beyond your control when it comes to getting hired; don’t expect too much too soon or become discouraged when things don’t happen as quickly as you’d like them to. Focus on the progress that has been made rather than any setbacks encountered along the way. [Read more…] about Strategies for Conquering Job Search Frustration

January Employment / Unemployment Report

by

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for January on February 3rd 2023.

Employment Down or Up? – Unemployment Down? 

Adj U3 Icon 3-4 dn

 

  • Unadjusted Employment fell from 155.349 million to 152.844
  • Labor Force Participation rose from 62.3% to 62.4%
  • Adjusted U-3 fell from 3.5% to 3.4%
  • Unadjusted U-3 ROSE from 3.3% to 3.9%
  • Unadjusted U-6 ROSE from 6.4% to 7.4%

 

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 517,000 in January, and the unemployment rate changed little at 3.4 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job growth was widespread, led by gains in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, and health care. Employment also increased in government, partially reflecting the return of workers from a strike.”

In addition, the BLS posted the following note:
 “Establishment survey data have been revised as a result of the annual benchmarking process, the NAICS 2022 conversion, and the updating of seasonal adjustment factors.| Also, household survey data for January 2023 reflect updated population estimates.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report, we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 154.771 million for December, which they adjusted up to 155.349 million. So, 578,000 additional jobs appeared for December.
I don’t know if it’s just me but, an additional half million jobs seems a bit exceptional, but perhaps in government work it’s just a rounding error.

The current estimate for January is 152.844 million which is down 1.9 million from the original number and down 2.5 million from the revised numbers. But after Seasonally Adjustment they report a half million increase! Typically, employment does fall off in January so some seasonal adjustment is justified but the half million increase in December seems a bit excessive.
We will see what happens next month.

ADP® National Employment Report

According to ADP In collaboration with Stanford Digital Economy Lab employment was up from December but by about 1/5th as much as the BLS reported. But if employment is up, why is the UNADJUSTED U3 and U6 down drastically? Could it be the extra 1.1 million people the BLS added to the Civilian population? December Civilian Population 264.844 million. January Civilian Population 265.962 million.

ADP: Private employers added 106,000 jobs in January

  • Employment was soft during our Jan. 12 reference week as the U.S. was hit with extreme weather. California was coping with record floods and back-to-back storms delivered ice and snow to the central and eastern U.S.

Nela Richardson January 2023ADP also lists increases by “firm size”.

Last month small and medium-sized companies were hiring while large corporations are downsizing. This month it was almost the opposite.

December Changes:

ADP Change by Establishment Size

January Changes:

Change by Est Size for January 2023

January 2023 Employment by Sector

The employment “bubble chart” is a quick and easy way to see how each sector performs on a seasonally adjusted basis. The Bubble’s Size tells us the total Employment for that industry (i.e., larger bubbles mean more people are employed in that sector).

The bubble’s location on the chart tells us that there has been a change in Employment Levels over the most recent month… A bubble further to the right indicates larger job growth. A bubble’s vertical location on the chart shows the average industry salary.

Average Weekly Wages Rose in January

Date Average Weekly Wage
January 2023 $1,146.14
December 2022 $1,125.73
November 2022 $1,129.01
October 2022 $1,124.01
September 2022 $1,119.87
August 2022 $1116.42
July 2022 $1,116.54
June 2022 $1,106.76
May 2022 $1,105.47
April 2022 $1,102.01
December 2021 $1,086.46

[Read more…] about January Employment / Unemployment Report

December 2022- Employment and Unemployment by State

by

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released its employment report (broken down by state) for the month of December 2022.

The lowest jobless rate was in Utah at 2.2 percent. North and South Dakota had the next lowest rates at 2.3 percent each. Alaska at 4.3%, and Pennsylvania at 3.9% set record lows since the BLS began recording (by state) in 1976. Nevada had the highest unemployment rate, 5.2 percent. 14 states had unemployment rates lower than the U.S. average of 3.5 percent. Washington D.C. and 11 states had rates higher than average, and 25 states had rates that were not appreciably different from that of the nation.

In December, seven states had over-the-month unemployment rate increases, the largest of which was in Nevada (+0.3 percentage point). Five states had over-the-month decreases, the largest of which was in Maryland (-0.3 percentage point). Thirty-eight states and the District of Columbia had jobless rates that were not notably different from those of a month earlier, though some had changes that were at least as large numerically as the significant changes.

unemployment by State Dec 2022
[Read more…] about December 2022- Employment and Unemployment by State

December 2022 Employment Report

by

Is Employment Up or Down?

 

  • Unadjusted Employment fell from 155.015 million to 154.771
  • Labor Force Participation rose from 62.2% to 62.3%
  • Adjusted U-3 fell from 3.6% to 3.5%
  • Unadjusted U-3 fell from 3.4% to 3.3%
  • Unadjusted U-6 was unchanged at 6.4%

 

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for December on January 6th2023.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 223,000 in December, and the unemployment rate edged down to 3.5 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, health care, construction, and social assistance… The unemployment rate edged down to 3.5 percent in December and has remained in a narrow range of 3.5 percent to 3.7 percent since March.”

In addition, the BLS posted the following note:
“Seasonally adjusted household survey data have been revised using updated seasonal adjustment factors…”
They will also be making further annual adjustments next month.

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”  rather than looking at the unadjusted results.

Looking at the unadjusted Current Employment Statistics program (formerly called the Establishment Survey report), we see…
Originally, the BLS reported employment of 154.990 million for November, which they adjusted up to 155.015 million. So, 25,000 additional jobs appeared for November.

The current estimate for December is 154.771 million, which is down 219,000 from the original November number and down 244,000 from the revised numbers.

According to the BLS’ unadjusted Current Population Survey (CPS), the labor force was 164.224 million in December. Of those, 158.872 million were employed, and 5.352 million were unemployed. November CPS employment was 158.749 million, so according to the Current Population Survey, employment increased.

So one set of numbers shows an increase in employment while the other shows a decrease. ADP says mostly up.

ADP® National Employment Report

According to ADP, In collaboration with Stanford Digital Economy Lab, employment was up from November to December.

Private employers added 235,000 jobs in December

  • Job resurgence was seen in the last two months of 2022, led by consumer-facing service industries. Hiring was strong across small and medium establishments, while large establishments saw a drop in employment of 151,000 jobs.

ADP Comment December 2022ADP also lists increases by “firm size”.

As we can see, small and medium-sized companies are still hiring, while large corporations are downsizing.

ADP Change by Establishment Size

 

December 2022 Employment by Sector

The employment “bubble chart” is a quick and easy way to see how each sector performs on a seasonally adjusted basis. The Bubble’s Size tells us the total Employment for that industry (i.e., larger bubbles mean more people are employed in that sector).

The bubble’s location on the chart tells us that there has been a change in Employment Levels over the most recent month… A bubble further to the right indicates larger job growth. A bubble’s vertical location on the chart shows the average industry salary.

In November, Leisure and Hospitality, Education, Construction, Manufacturing, and “Other” were the big gainers, while Retail was the big loser.

Average Weekly Wages Fell in December

$1,125.73 in December, $1,129.01 in November, $1,124.01 in October , $1,119.87 in September, $1116.42 in August, $1,116.54 in July, $1,106.76, in June, $1,105.47 in May and $1,102.01 in April, and $1,086.46 in December 2021. [Read more…] about December 2022 Employment Report

5 Career Opportunities for Disabled Individuals

by

No matter what type of disability you may have, the good news is that there is a great career waiting for you in all types of industries. Unlike in years past when employers may have been hesitant to hire disabled workers, the job market of today is eager to hire workers of all backgrounds and skills. Should you be a disabled individual who is looking for a great career opportunity, here are five possibilities you may want to consider.

File Clerk

If you have a hearing impairment, being a file clerk would be a great career. The perfect job if you like routine work and keeping track of records, this job requires minimal contact with others on a daily basis, letting you work alone while you keep things organized.

Credit Counselor

Should you have a visual impairment, consider becoming a credit counselor. Working with a variety of clients, you will help people establish budgets, understand how to set and reach financial goals, and much more. A job where it is key for you to build interpersonal relationships with others, it has an annual average salary approaching $45,000.

Actuary

One of the best disability job opportunities for people who have mobility issues, becoming an actuary will provide you with a great and satisfying career. Working for an insurance company, you would use your math and statistical skills to help companies analyze risk, which helps determine insurance coverage for various situations. A job that is always in demand, the annual salary can often exceed $100,000. [Read more…] about 5 Career Opportunities for Disabled Individuals

4 Careers that Don’t Require a 4 Year Degree

by

If you’re stuck in a job you hate or find yourself unemployed, it can be tempting to just give up and resign yourself to your fate. But it doesn’t have to be that way! There are plenty of good jobs out there that don’t require a four-year degree. And the best part is, you can often get the skills you need by completing an online course.

Medical Coding

If you’re looking for a job in the medical field that doesn’t require years of school, medical coding might be a good fit for you. Medical coding is the process of turning diagnoses and procedures into numeric or alphanumeric codes. These codes are then used for insurance reimbursement and to keep track of medical data. You can complete online medical coding classes in as little as six weeks, so it is definitely a career that doesn’t require a 4-year degree!

Web Design

With more and more businesses moving their operations online, there’s a growing demand for web designers who can create attractive and user-friendly websites. If you have an eye for design and some basic coding skills, you can learn everything you need to know to get started in web design through a variety of free and paid online courses. You can easily get started without a 4-year degree. [Read more…] about 4 Careers that Don’t Require a 4 Year Degree