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Tim McMahon, Editor of UnemploymentData.com

My grandfather lived through the Hyperinflation in Weimar, Germany--to say he was an original “gold bug” would be an understatement. I began reading his “hard money” newsletters at the age of 16 and the dividends from gold stocks helped put me through college. I began publishing the Financial Trend Forecaster paper newsletter in 1995 upon the death of James Moore editor of Your Window into the Future and the creator of the Moore Inflation Predictor©. FTF specializes in trends in the stock market, gold, inflation and bonds. In January of 2003, I began publishing InflationData.com to specialize in all forms of information about the nature of Inflation. In 2009, we added Elliott Wave University to help teach you the principles of Elliott Wave analysis. In January 2013, we began publishing OptioMoney. Connect with Tim on Google+.

BLS Monthly Employment Report for April

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The US economy added 160,000 “seasonally adjusted” jobs in April, the lowest figure in the last seven months. The adjusted U-3 unemployment rate remained steady at 5%. The Unadjusted U-3 fell to 4.7% while the Unadjusted U-6 fell to 9.3% from 9.9% last month.
Job Creation April 2016On a seasonally adjusted basis employment has fallen while on a non-adjusted basis the actual number of non-farm employed has increased from 142.887 Million to 143.944 million for a net increase of  1,057,000 jobs but since April traditionally sees a large increase in seasonal workers the seasonally adjusted number says that we were only 160,000 jobs better than what we would expect if there were zero jobs growth.

Labor Force Participation Rate

The Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) is the percentage of the Labor Force that is currently either looking for a job or actually has one. So even though it sounds like it is talking about how many people are working it actually is the percentage who “want to work”.  As of  April this stands at 62.8%. This rate has been steadily falling for a number of years and has reached levels not seen since the 1970’s.

Since the Bureau of Labor Statistics measures unemployment as the percentage of the labor force that can’t find work as people stop looking for work they fall out of the labor force and are no longer counted. Thus the unemployment rate can fall even though no new jobs have been created.

Labor Force Participation Rate Apr-2016

Long Term Labor Force Participation Rate

Labor Force Participation Rate 1950-Feb2016As we can see from the above chart the LFPR peaked in the late 1990’s and fell during the recession from 2000 through 2004. From 2004 through 2007 it leveled off  but then the “Great Recession” hit and the LFPR has fallen pretty steadily since. And even though we are supposed to be in a recovery the LFPR continues to fall although there was a bit of an up tick at the end of 2015 and early 2016, April’s LFPR is lower than March’s.

Some people wrongly assume that the LFPR is falling due to retiring baby-boomers.  This premise however has been proven false. See Record Low LFPR which shows the LFPR by age group since 1999. The biggest declines occur in the younger ages while those above age 60 actually show a higher percentage are working. For instance, in 1999 only 24% of those age 65-69 were working but according to the BLS in 2015 30.8% of those age 65-69 were working.

Gallup “Good Jobs” Index

Gallup’s “Good Jobs” Index is their version of the LFPR it is calculated as a percentage of the total population rather than limiting it to the “work force”.  So although the percentage is lower it is a better indicator of the actual situation since it is not subject to fudging through simply redefining who is in the “work force”. Gallup says 44.9% of the total adult population is in the “Good Jobs” Index i.e. has a full-time job. This does not mean that they are employed at their full capacity or that they are earning a “decent wage” simply that they are employed full-time. Gallup defines a full-time as 30+ hours per week for an employer who provides a regular paycheck. This is up from 44.5% last month confirming the seasonal increase in employment mentioned above.

March Jobs Data

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The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their employment data for the month of March 2016. The adjusted U-3 unemployment rate was 5.0% up from 4.9% in February. The unadjusted U-3 unemployment rate was 5.1% while the Gallup survey says the unadjusted U-3 was actually a full 1% higher at 6.1%.  See: Unemployment Rate Chart

U-6 Unemployment

The BLS says the broader U-6 unemployment rate that includes short term “discouraged workers” was 9.9% while Gallup says the rate is really 14.4%.

Meanwhile, according to [Read more…] about March Jobs Data

Startup Success: Max Sales-Low “Burn Rate”

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The key to a startup success is knowing that the faster your startup can get from a business plan to revenue, the more likely it is the company will survive and succeed. Many new businesses measure their finances in terms of their “burn rate,” which is a number that indicates the rate at which venture capital is being used and not replaced through sales.

The burn rate problem can be resolved by using resources more efficiently while boosting sales.

Sales

Entrepreneurship IntegrityYour new company should try to offset its costs as fast as possible through sales. This is called “customer financing” and it is a powerful way to alter your balance sheet in your favor. Sales are the mechanism by which all companies will survive long-term. The faster you can replace financing, investor support and capital with sales revenues, the faster your company can begin building long term equity growth.

Supplier Financing

If you’re selling a physical product often you can arrange terms with your suppliers so that they will provide 30 or 60 day financing. This should give you time to generate the sale and collect the money and then cover your inventory costs. In order for this to work effectively you need to keep your inventory levels at the bare minimum, ideally through the use of “JIT” i.e. “Just In Time” ordering. This involves precision timing and often computer integration with your suppliers.

Information Technology

A variety of companies require sophisticated IT infrastructure in order to ramp up operations.  It could be for “Just In Time” inventory management as previously mentioned but it could just as likely be for e-commerce or document processing. Outsourcing some IT functions can be some of the wisest money spent during your new enterprise’s startup phase.

For instance if your company is based in Canada rather than hiring your own Microsoft Certified Professional to manage your Exchange Server, you could contract with a company like  IT services Ottawa, to provide your e-mail services. Through economies of scale this will probably save you a bundle compared to trying to hire all these professionals yourself. In addition to cost savings it will also save in recruiting time and allow you to get your email server up and running in days compared to months.

Professional Services

In addition to IT professionals every company needs competent legal counsel and the services of a talented and knowledgeable accountant. These two individuals can provide your company with insights it would otherwise lack and further, provide your strategy team with legal and financial ideas they might otherwise overlook. If even one major legal or financial obstacle can be avoided by something as simple as retaining a couple of professional firms, the reward just might be a successful startup instead of an exhausting bankruptcy.

Success in business is far more often the result of where money is spent than how much is available. Taking the time to build a solid foundation for a company can set your management team at ease and allow them to concentrate on important topics rather than spending time putting out small fires in places they should never occur.

February Unemployment Flat

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February Unemployment Rate (Seasonally Adjusted)

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their employment data for February on Friday March 4th 2016. The commonly used seasonally adjusted U-3 Unemployment Rate was 4.9% identical to January. The BLS promotes the Seasonally Adjusted U-3 Unemployment Rate as the primary measure of unemployment. But often when we look at the adjusted Unemployment rate it is moving in the opposite direction as the unadjusted Unemployment rate. For more information see our Seasonally Adjusted vs. Unadjusted Unemployment Rate Chart.

Adj vs unadj unemployment rate Feb 2016

Unadjusted Unemployment Rate and Actual Number Employed

The Un-Adjusted  Unemployment Rate was down slightly from 5.3% in January to 5.2% in February. As far as actual Employment, the number of Unadjusted jobs reported for February was 142.005 million up from 141.155 million in January.  [Read more…] about February Unemployment Flat

7 Tips to Cutting Business Expenses

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Business expenses can quickly spin out of control and cause you, the proprietor, quite a bit of undue stress. So, how do you prevent it and more importantly how do you get back the monetary control that you need in order to keep your business healthy?

Pay Attention to Even the Smallest Business Expenses

Cutting Business ExpensesThe important thing, when cutting business expenses, is to go over thems with a fine-tooth comb. Begin by taking a look at your available funds and your overall expenses. Scour your accounting information and pay attention to all of the details.

Plug the leaks

#1 Check your records for exactly where your cash is going, who you are paying, etc. Make sure all of the expenses are vital (and legitimate), and see if there can be changes made in order to increase revenue. Plug the leaks, whether it is employee theft of office supplies or wasted electricity. These things might seem small but [Read more…] about 7 Tips to Cutting Business Expenses

BLS Releases October Employment Figures

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Current Unemployment Rate Chart

Unemployment Rate October 2015

According to the latest U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data release on November 6th the current “Seasonally Adjusted” Unemployment Rate for October is 5.0% down from September’s 5.1% which was down significantly from last October’s 5.8%. The “Unadjusted” rate is 4.8% down from 5.6% in July and much lower than January’s 6.1%. See: Current Chart

According to the BLS, the U-6 Unemployment Rate for October was 9.5%. U-6 unemployment includes short-term discouraged workers who have given up looking for work because they feel there is no work available for them.

However, since 2010, Gallup (the survey/Pollsters) have been  doing their own employment survey using basically the same parameters as the BLS and they conclude that the current U-6 (which they call the “UnderEmployment Rate) is actually 13.8% down from 14.1% in September.

According to John William’s Shadowstats the government began underestimating unemployment back in 1994 when they changed the way unemployment was calculated since “long-term discouraged workers were defined out of official existence”. The new U-6 numbers only include short-term discouraged workers. The following chart shows their calculations for Unemployment based on their estimates of what it would be if unemployment was calculated the pre-1994 way.

Current Employment Data

Employment Levels 2000-2015According to the current Bureau of Labor Statistics data, the employment situation for the month of October 2015 was as follows: The number of Unadjusted jobs reported for October 2015 was 143.739 million. That was up from June’s previous peak of 142.836 million.

For more information see: Current Employment Data

 

Current Employment vs Unemployment Chart

Employment compared to UnemploymentWhen looking at employment vs. unemployment  you would think that they would simply be the inverse of each other. Flip one over and you have the other. But the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) actually uses two entirely different surveys to calculate them. So by comparing them we can spot irregularities. See Employment vs. Unemployment for more information.

Historical Employment Data

Employment-1939-2015

In this chart we can see the historical employment figures from 1939 through the present. But in addition to the number of jobs we can also see the recessions shaded blue.

See: Historical Employment Levels for more information.

 

Misery IndexThe misery index combines two factors that can make life difficult for people i.e.  unemployment and inflation.  High levels of price inflation (rapidly rising prices) will cause households to have difficulty affording the basic necessities while high unemployment will leave a high percentage of households without any income at all.

See: InflationData’s Misery Index.

Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate

The U-3 Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate is the standard unemployment rate that the government prefers to use since it presents a much rosier picture than the U-6.  Go here if you would like to see the “Unemployment Rate” in table form.

Unadjusted vs. Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate

Adjusted vs unadjusted unemployment rate May 2015

Although the Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate is often quoted by the main stream media (MSM) people often wonder how much fudging goes on in the adjustment process. In this chart you can see how the Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate compares with the Unadjusted rate.

BLS vs Gallup Unemployment Rates

Although it doesn’t appear that there is much “fudging” going on with the Seasonal adjustments that doesn’t mean the numbers are without problems. See Is the Government Fudging the Unemployment numbers for some alternative ways to get a better picture of the employment situation.

See Also:

High Paid Miners Now Working at Walmart?

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Employment-1939-2015_AugSeptember Employment Numbers Disappointing

Apparently U.S. employers cut back on hiring over the last two months. The expectation by economists polled by Reuters was that there would be a net gain of 203,000 jobs in September.

But when the BLS released their “preliminary estimates” for the employment situation for September non-farm employment rose by only 142,000 in September. And to make matters worse, August numbers were adjusted down resulting in the smallest Seasonally adjusted two month gain in over a year.

The BLS Commissioner’s report stated, “Job gains occurred in health care and information, while mining employment fell… The number of persons unemployed for less than 5 weeks increased by 268,000 to 2.4 million in September, partially offsetting a decline in August… Thus far in 2015, job growth has averaged 198,000 per month, compared with an average monthly gain of 260,000 in 2014.”

So 2015 has averaged only 76% the job growth that 2014 had and at 142,000 September was only 54% of 2014’s average. 34,000 new jobs were created by healthcare, 31,000 came from professional and business services, 24,000 from retail trade employment, and food services and drinking places added 21,000 jobs. On the other hand, mining and mining support lost -17,000 jobs. So it appears all the high paid mining workers are now working at either McDonald’s or Walmart. Not a good trend at all!

See Current Employment Commentary for more information.

Unemployment Rate September 2015The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) also released the newest unemployment data for September 2015 today. According to the BLS, the current “Seasonally Adjusted” Unemployment Rate for September is 5.1% identical to August. The BLS reported the “Unadjusted” Unemployment Rate is 4.9% which is lower than August’s 5.2% . See Current Unemployment Chart for more information.

Employment vs UnemploymentIn our chart of employment vs. unemployment we compare them and although you would expect that employment and unemployment are simply the inverse of each other (i.e flip one over and you have the other) actually there are several anomalies in the data. Because the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) uses two separate surveys to calculate the data it helps us see [Read more…] about High Paid Miners Now Working at Walmart?

Six Unexpected Payoffs of Having a Sales Job

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Sales ProfessionalIn an age where companies must use a wide range of different marketing tactics to compete, the salesman has somewhat of a bad reputation. While many salespeople are helpful professionals, many people think of the aggressive telemarketer or the high-pressure car salesman when they picture what it looks like to work in sales. In actuality, sales jobs can be extremely lucrative and the experience attained can offer professionals an extreme advantage in the job market. Here are six payoffs you might not expect to have when you start a career in sales.

Rewards Go Beyond Just Commissions

Whenever you take a job, you expect to be paid as long as you are performing. Most people know that the top-selling professionals who are working for the right company can earn serious coin by hitting their targets. While a good salary and fair commissions are important, you need to look beyond the money. Many companies will offer their top salespeople company cars, bonuses, cruises, trips for conferences, and other perks that will make life in and out of the office more [Read more…] about Six Unexpected Payoffs of Having a Sales Job

August Unemployment Down

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Employment-1939-2015_AugThe BLS issued their “preliminary estimates” for the employment situation for the month of August 2015. The Commissioner’s report regarding the Seasonally Adjusted numbers says, “Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 173,000 in August, and the unemployment rate edged down to 5.1 percent. Employment rose in health care and social assistance and in financial activities, while manufacturing and mining employment declined.”

The full report of unadjusted numbers states that there were 142.126 Million jobs in August compared to 141.794 million jobs in July and 142.868 million jobs in June.

See Current Employment Commentary for more information.

Unemployment Rate Chart - August 2015The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) also released the newest unemployment data for August 2015 today. According to the BLS, the current “Seasonally Adjusted” Unemployment Rate for July is 5.1%  down from July’s 5.3%. The BLS reported the “Unadjusted” Unemployment Rate is 5.2% which is lower than July’s 5.6% . See Current Unemployment Chart for more information.

emp vs unemp 2010- Aug 2015In our chart of employment vs. unemployment we compare them and although you would expect that employment and unemployment are simply the inverse of each other (i.e flip one over and you have the other) actually there are several anomalies in the data. Because the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) uses two separate surveys to calculate the data it helps us see [Read more…] about August Unemployment Down

Tips for Finding the Right Employee

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Interview Intuition Tips for Narrowing Your Candidate PoolYour employees are the heart of your business, so hiring the right applicant is a huge decision you want to get right the first time. Large-platform job-search sites can generate hundreds of applicants for your opening, but you’ll need to develop a good strategy for limiting that pool if you want to find the perfect candidate. Below are five tips to help you narrow your applicant field and attract the candidates you really want.

Know Who You Want

Before you list your job opening, [Read more…] about Tips for Finding the Right Employee