Tim McMahon, Editor of UnemploymentData.com

My grandfather lived through the Hyperinflation in Weimar, Germany--to say he was an original “gold bug” would be an understatement. I began reading his “hard money” newsletters at the age of 16 and the dividends from gold stocks helped put me through college. I began publishing the Financial Trend Forecaster paper newsletter in 1995 upon the death of James Moore editor of Your Window into the Future and the creator of the Moore Inflation Predictor©. FTF specializes in trends in the stock market, gold, inflation and bonds. In January of 2003, I began publishing InflationData.com to specialize in all forms of information about the nature of Inflation. In 2009, we added Elliott Wave University to help teach you the principles of Elliott Wave analysis. In January 2013, we began publishing OptioMoney. Connect with Tim on Google+.

May Employment and Unemployment Numbers

June 2, 2017 by Tim McMahon

The U.S.Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the May unemployment numbers today. The BLS Commissioner says: Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 138,000 in May, but these are Seasonally Adjusted numbers. So since typically employment increases in May, what he is saying is that 138,000 more jobs than average were created. In unadjusted terms employment was 145.938 million in April and 146.748 in May for a net gain of 810,000 jobs. Adjusted U-3 Unemployment was 4.3% down from 4.4% in April. Unadjusted U-3 Unemployment was 4.1% unchanged from April.

Gallup Unadjusted U-3 was 5.2% down from 5.4% in April. Gallup’s unadjusted U-6 Unemployment was 8.1% unchanged from April. Gallup’s U-6 was 13.8% Down from 14.0% in April.

May Employment Gain and Loss Bubbles

In the following chart from the BLS we can see [Read more…] about May Employment and Unemployment Numbers

5 Ways You Can Build Your Professional Skillset with Certifications

May 20, 2017 by Tim McMahon

In a competitive job market, making your resume stand out from the crowd could be as simple as earning a certificate or two by passing a few exams. This can serve as verification of special skills and training. Many certifications will be recognized and respected by hiring managers. This can give you an instant advantage over those who don’t have the certification. Here are five ways certifications can improve your job prospects.

1. Project Management Professional

A PMP certification shows that you have the management skills to get things done. Every growing business wants someone with the leadership ability to organize and complete special projects that come along. Applicants with the demonstrated skill to guide teams to finish projects on time and on budget are seen as a great asset. A few big projects under your belt could provide a great boost to your career and distinguish your resume.

According to the Project Management Institute: [Read more…] about 5 Ways You Can Build Your Professional Skillset with Certifications

Tips for Coping with Unemployment

May 15, 2017 by Tim McMahon

Unemployment is tough, not only are there financial repercussions, but there are psychological ones as well. Getting laid-off no matter whether it is due to adverse nationwide economic conditions, or due to personal errors in judgement, it’s still painful. According to a Gallup poll Depression Rates are Higher for Long-Term Unemployed. “The longer that Americans are unemployed, the more likely they are to report signs of poor psychological well-being. About one in five Americans who have been unemployed for a year or more say they currently have or are being treated for depression — almost double the rate among those who have been unemployed for five weeks or less.”

On the other hand, Healthy Eating Linked to Lower Likelihood of Depression so even if you’ve been fired, you need to continue to take care of yourself and eat healthy meals.

Unemployment can initially result in our systems going into a form of “shock” which makes it difficult to think clearly and so we tend to get depressed and just “shut-down”. But it is important to act quickly to minimize the negative impact on both yourself and anyone who is depending on you.

1) Cut Back on Expenses

The first thing you need to [Read more…] about Tips for Coping with Unemployment

Over a Million New Jobs Not 211,000

May 5, 2017 by Tim McMahon

According to the BLS Commissioner’s report for this month:

“The unemployment rate changed little over the month but, at 4.4 percent, matched the pre-recession low reached in 2007. The number of unemployed persons, at 7.1 million, also changed little in April.“

Today’s Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Commissioner’s Report says, “Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 211,000 in April, and the unemployment rate, at 4.4 percent, was little changed. Thus far this year, monthly job gains have averaged 185,000, in line with average monthly job growth in 2016. In April, job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, health care and social assistance, financial activities, and mining.”

But we have to remember that typically employment increases in April. So what the BLS Commissioner is saying is that 211,000 more jobs than average were created. In layman’s terms, unadjusted employment was 144.953 million in March and 145.979 in April for a net gain of 1,026,000 jobs.

Employment Growth Bubbles

In the above chart we see the various sectors of employment. The size of the bubble represents [Read more…] about Over a Million New Jobs Not 211,000

Why the U.S. Isn’t at “Full Employment” Yet

May 5, 2017 by Tim McMahon

The news is bristling with excitement as all the major media outlets are jumping on today’s employment numbers hot off the Bureau of Labor Statistics presses. The BLS reported that the Seasonally Adjusted U-3 unemployment rate was just 4.4% and the unadjusted broader based U-6 was just 8.1%.

In response to all this good news The New York Times said, “We’re Getting Awfully Close to Full Employment” and The Wall Street Journal trumpeted “Jobs Report: This Is What Full Employment Looks Like” so who am I to throw cold water on their parade? Well, at least I’m not the only one to have my doubts. Jared Bernstein at The Washington Post thinks that the current low inflation level is a factor that may indicate that we aren’t quite there yet. So I’m adding my own two-cents with the following chart. We regularly publish the U-6 minus U-3 chart which shows the differential between the ordinary unemployed U-3 and the bottom of the barrel unemployed U-6. By definition, in order to be at “full-employment” everyone who wants a job has to have one. That doesn’t mean Zero unemployment because there is a bit of friction in the system and so when people change jobs they are temporarily “unemployed” so there will always be some. Historically, this was assumed to be around 3% unemployment. So as the U-3 unemployment approaches 3% the U-6 people get drawn into the market. They may not have the skills or the ambition or the whatever but now they can find a job because companies are desperate.

So by looking at the U-6 minus the U-3 we can get a very good picture of when we are nearing “full employment”. So let’s look at that chart. [Read more…] about Why the U.S. Isn’t at “Full Employment” Yet

Unemployment Down in March

April 8, 2017 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly Employment/Unemployment report for the month ending in March on April 7^th. The widely publicized Seasonally Adjusted U-3 Unemployment rate was 4.5% down from 4.7% in February. While the broader U-6 unemployment rate that includes discouraged workers and other “marginally attached” individuals was 8.9% down from 9.5% in February.

The BLS’ Unadjusted U-3 was 4.6% in March down from 4.9% in February. The Gallup alternatives presented mixed results with Gallup’s Unadjusted U-3 at 5.7% up from 5.5% in February while Gallup’s version of the U-6 was unchanged at 13.7%.

The BLS Commissioner’s statement said, “The unemployment rate declined by 0.2 percentage point to 4.5 percent in March. Nonfarm payroll employment edged up by 98,000, following gains in January (+216,000) and February (+219,000). In March, job gains occurred in professional and business services and in mining, while retail employment declined.”

In the above chart we can see [Read more…] about Unemployment Down in March

Housing Ace: 5 Ways to Prepare for a Job in Real Estate

April 6, 2017 by Tim McMahon

Being a real estate agent can be a really great career for the right person. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) the median salary for a Real Estate agent is $45,610 per year. Real estate brokers and sales agents help clients buy, sell, and rent properties. Although brokers and agents do similar work, brokers are licensed to manage their own real estate businesses. Sales agents must work with a real estate broker. Generally, you must be an agent for a while before becoming a broker.

According to the BLS, “Brokers and agents can represent either the buyer or the seller in a transaction. Buyers’ brokers and agents meet with clients to understand what they are looking for in a property and how much they can afford. Sellers’ brokers and agents meet with clients to help them decide how much to ask for and to convince them that the agent or broker can find them a qualified buyer.

Real estate brokers and sales agents must be knowledgeable about the real estate market in their area. To match properties to clients’ needs, they should be familiar with local communities, including knowing the crime information and the proximity to schools and shopping. Brokers and agents also must stay current on financing options; government programs; types of available mortgages; and real estate, zoning, and fair housing laws.”

The hours are unusual since you may be showing homes when other people are off of work. Since you work on commission you may work for long periods without getting paid and then receive a large paycheck all at once. Some years are better than others depending on the overall market in your area. You must be self-motivated and a “people person”. But for the right individual this can be an excellent career choice. [Read more…] about Housing Ace: 5 Ways to Prepare for a Job in Real Estate

Preparing for a Healthcare Job Interview

March 14, 2017 by Tim McMahon

Looking for your first healthcare job is an exciting journey that may have a few bumps along the way. Although preparing and submitting a sleek resume is the first step of the process, the in-person interview may be the most important part. Good preparation, including reflecting on your experiences and learning more about the job, can transform you into an exceptional candidate. If you aren’t sure what you might need to prepare for in your interview, take a look at these ideas.

Prepare to Talk About Your Experiences

During the interview, your goal is to impress the interviewers with your capabilities and skills. Declaring that you’re good at talking with patients is helpful, but demonstrating [Read more…] about Preparing for a Healthcare Job Interview