Tim McMahon, Editor of UnemploymentData.com

My grandfather lived through the Hyperinflation in Weimar, Germany--to say he was an original “gold bug” would be an understatement. I began reading his “hard money” newsletters at the age of 16 and the dividends from gold stocks helped put me through college. I began publishing the Financial Trend Forecaster paper newsletter in 1995 upon the death of James Moore editor of Your Window into the Future and the creator of the Moore Inflation Predictor©. FTF specializes in trends in the stock market, gold, inflation and bonds. In January of 2003, I began publishing InflationData.com to specialize in all forms of information about the nature of Inflation. In 2009, we added Elliott Wave University to help teach you the principles of Elliott Wave analysis. In January 2013, we began publishing OptioMoney. Connect with Tim on Google+.

October Unemployment Rate Down Again

November 4, 2017 by Tim McMahon

On Friday November 3^rd the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly employment survey results for the month of October.

According to the BLS, the current “Seasonally Adjusted” Unemployment Rate for October is 4.1% DOWN from 4.2% in September and 4.4% in August. Seasonally Adjusted U-3 unemployment was 4.8% in January and 4.9% a year ago (October 2016).

The current “Unadjusted” rate is 3.9% down from 4.1% in September and 4.5% in August. Unadjusted U-3 was 5.1% in January and 4.7% a year ago (October 2016).

See: Current Unemployment Rate Chart for more info.

Seasonal adjustment provides something like a moving average leveling out the bumps due to normal seasonal variations. See: Unadjusted vs. Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate for more information about Seasonal Adjustment.

According to the BLS Commissioner’s report for this month:

How to Handle Getting Laid-Off Without Warning

October 23, 2017 by Tim McMahon

Getting laid-off without any prior warning can be devastating. You must deal with a wide range of emotions after hearing the news, and you have to plan for the future. You might be upset, but you cannot let your emotions control your reaction. Here are some practical steps you can take when facing this uncertain situation.

Process Your Emotions

It is normal to feel anger and disappointment at this news. Your anger is not a sign of weakness. Take time to process your emotions and feel them fully. When you are away from the office, speak with a friend about your feelings. Be kind to yourself as well. Inform loved one of the situation immediately, just talking it out will help you begin processing the emotions. Try to look on the bright side. This is an opportunity to follow your dreams, get out of a rut and try something new.

You Are Not Your Job

According to Psychology Today [Read more…] about How to Handle Getting Laid-Off Without Warning

September Unemployment Rate Down

October 7, 2017 by Tim McMahon

On Friday October 6^th the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly employment survey results for the month of September. Every month the BLS conducts two surveys one contacts a sampling of households and the other collects data from businesses. Then they massage some of the numbers to “Seasonally Adjust” them and release them to the media.

According to the BLS, the current “Seasonally Adjusted” Unemployment Rate for September (released October 6^th) is 4.2% DOWN from 4.4% in August. The current “Unadjusted” rate is 4.1% down from 4.5% in August.

According to the BLS Commissioner’s report for this month:

“The unemployment rate declined to 4.2 percent in September, and total nonfarm payroll employment changed little (-33,000), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. A sharp employment decline in food services and drinking places and below-trend growth in some other industries likely reflected the impact of Hurricanes Irma and Harvey. “

See: Current Unemployment Rate Chart for more info.

In the very next paragraph, based on the Household Unemployment Survey, he said, “The unemployment rate decreased by 0.2 percentage point to 4.2 percent in September, and the number of unemployed persons declined by 331,000 to 6.8 million. Both measures were down over the year.”

Declining unemployment means more jobs! So which is it 331,000 more jobs? -33,000 fewer jobs? Or 340,000 more jobs? [Read more…] about September Unemployment Rate Down

August Unemployment Numbers

September 1, 2017 by Tim McMahon

The U.S.Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the August unemployment numbers today. The BLS Commissioner says: “Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 156,000 in August, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 4.4 percent. Job gains occurred in manufacturing, construction, professional and technical services, health care, and mining. Employment growth has averaged 176,000 per month thus far this year, about in line with the average monthly gain of 187,000 in 2016.”

Actual employment in July was 146,330,000 and 146,541,000 in August for a net gain of 211,000 even though according to the Commissioner it was 156,000 on a “Seasonally Adjusted” basis.

Adjusted U-3 Unemployment was 4.4% up from 4.3% in July.
Unadjusted U-3 Unemployment was 4.5% down from 4.6% in July.
Employment Increase 156,000 on a “Seasonally Adjusted” or 211,000 non-adjusted.
U-6 Unemployment was 8.6% down from 8.9% in July.

August Employment Gain and Loss Bubbles

In the following chart from the BLS we can see [Read more…] about August Unemployment Numbers

4 Ways Small Businesses Are Changing Ancient POS Trends

August 29, 2017 by Tim McMahon

As a business owner, it is important that you set up convenient payment options for your customers to use when buying your products or services. An inconvenient, stressful or untrustworthy payment process can result in lost sales and the likelihood that some customers will take their business elsewhere. Technology for point-of-sale (POS) systems has dramatically improved in recent years, and this makes it easier for your company to obtain payments immediately from customers while also providing them with the more convenient methods of payment they desire. By learning more about the modern solutions available for point-of-sales systems, you may be able to improve your operations, make it easier for cashiers and increase customer satisfaction.

Online Sales Platforms

Online sales or shopping cart features have been around for over a decade now, but modern sales platforms are designed to be fast and easy for customers to use. Many companies offer an online checkout process as a guest or as a registered member. They may offer the ability to pay with a wide range of credit card options as well as to link to online payment platforms like PayPal. The best shopping carts offer protection against identity theft and fraud, and this gives your customer peace of mind when they are making a purchase that their financial information is protected.

https://youtu.be/YUqv7ibSgsE

Portable In-Store Payment Devices

In-store or in-restaurant purchases are now more convenient because of the

How to Stop Burnout and Build Momentum in Your Career

August 22, 2017 by Tim McMahon

Job got you down? Feeling Burned out? Consider the following steps to maximize your potential and re-energize your career and life.

Try Different Strategies

If you have been doing your job the same way for a long time, there is a good chance you are going to get bored. Change up your approach now and then. Tackle your job duties from a different angle, or use a new technique. If you are not sure how to change, take a seminar or workshop in job-related creativity or productivity. Not only will you learn new ways of doing things, but you will also meet others in the class with whom you can exchange ideas.

In this video Brendon Burchard gives you some unusual tips to get control of your time and your life, to eliminate stress and feel more relaxed and energized rather than overwhelmed at work.

Find a Mentor

Join a local business or civic group, like the chamber of commerce. You will likely find others in your business field who have plenty of experience and have achieved success. Someone may be [Read more…] about How to Stop Burnout and Build Momentum in Your Career

Worldwide Unemployment Rates

August 16, 2017 by Tim McMahon

OECD Unemployment — Image courtesy of: BlogPiks.com

On Friday August 11^th the OECD published the Unemployment rates of its member countries. They call it the “Harmonised Unemployment Rate” meaning that they may adjust the rate depending on how the individual countries calculate it so they are comparable.

Note: The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) is an intergovernmental economic organisation with 35 member countries, founded in 1960 to stimulate economic progress and world trade, headquartered in Paris France. In addition to its other functions the OECD publishes books, reports, statistics, working papers and reference materials.

The countries with the highest unemployment rates were:

Top 6 Highest Unemployment Rates in OECD Countries

Based on the most recent numbers we have for each country, we can see from the table below that the six countries with the highest unemployment rates are all [Read more…] about Worldwide Unemployment Rates

1 Million Fewer Jobs but BLS Says 209 K More

August 4, 2017 by Tim McMahon

U-3 Unemployment

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their employment and unemployment numbers for July on Friday August 4^th. The Seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate was down from 4.4% in June to 4.3% in July. Unadjusted U-3 however was up from 4.5% to 4.6%. U3 is the Official unemployment rate per the International Labor Organization definition. It occurs when people are without jobs and they have actively looked for work within the past four weeks.

U-6 Unemployment

U-6 unemployment is the broadest category of unemployment and includes U3 plus “discouraged workers”, plus other “marginally attached workers”, plus part-time workers who want to work full-time, but cannot due to economic reasons. U-6 was unchanged from June at 8.9%.

Employment

The Commissioner of the BLS released this statement, “Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 209,000 in July, and the unemployment rate, at 4.3 percent, was little changed. Job gains occurred in food services and drinking places, professional and business services, and health care. Employment growth has averaged 184,000 per month thus far this year, in line with the average monthly gain in 2016 (+187,000). “

However if we look at the actual employment data we get a different picture. [Read more…] about 1 Million Fewer Jobs but BLS Says 209 K More

Comparing Bureau of Labor Statistics Unemployment Numbers to an Independent Source

August 4, 2017 by Tim McMahon

NOTE: Gallup has STOPPED publishing their Unemployment Numbers effective in July 2017. This includes U-3, Underemployment (U-6), and Good Jobs Index (Payroll to Population Rate).

From 2010-2017, the Gallup Survey people both generated numbers to help us understand the employment/unemployment situation. Unfortunately, they often presented a different picture from the numbers generated by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Typically the BLS data presented a rosier picture than the independently surveyed Gallup numbers.

Often in the summer, the gap between the BLS and the Gallup closed. In July 2016, the BLS and the Gallup numbers came in identical. Early in 2017 the gap widened to 1.3% in April but has narrowed again to 0.6% in June.

For June 2017 Gallup said unadjusted U-3 unemployment was 5.1% down from 5.2% in May and 5.4% in April while the BLS said it was 4.5% up from 4.1% in May and April. So the spread is currently 0.6%.

Whose Unemployment Numbers are Right?

There has been some talk about “full employment” in the media of late and if we look at the Unemployment numbers created by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) we might get that impression. If we look at the Employment numbers rather than the Unemployment Rate we see a significant increase but it hasn’t been until recent months that the increase has actually outpaced the growth in the population.

We’ve looked at Employment vs. Unemployment on other pages to see how they compare and we’ve looked at U-6 (total labor force including those who’ve given up looking) vs. U-3 (those who are still actively looking). The U-3 unemployment rate is the commonly quoted one. But the one problem is that all that data comes from the government. If they are fudging the numbers how would we know? Unless as we’ve noted before there are inconsistencies between the Unemployment and Employment Charts. But we [Read more…] about Comparing Bureau of Labor Statistics Unemployment Numbers to an Independent Source

High Unemployment Rates in Alaska and D.C.

July 29, 2017 by Tim McMahon

What Causes a State to Have a Lower Unemployment Rate?

Nationwide according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics the Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment rate is 4.4% but when you look a bit closer you will see that there is quite a bit of variation by state.

States with the Highest Unemployment Rates

Alaska had the highest jobless rate, at 6.8%, followed by New Mexico, at 6.4% and Washington D.C. at 6.2%.

22% of Alaskan Natives live below the poverty level.

Some of Alaska’s problems are understandable. Alaska has high transportation costs, little industry, a massively spread out population and massive poverty. As a matter of fact among Alaskan Native Americans the poverty rate is double the U.S. Average. The alcoholism mortality rate is 6 times higher than the national average. Obesity and diabetes rates are much higher and injury related deaths are much more frequent. But the situation among Native American tribes in Alaska is actually much worse than the statistics show.

Domestic violence is rampant among Native Americans in Alaska and not just in the home. I spoke with a teacher at a Native American School and they found it necessary to create two distinct schools to separate the boys from the girls because the girls were consistently being raped in the bathrooms. These rapes were routinely unreported to authorities because of the prevailing feeling that nothing would be done about it. And despite the massive under-reporting, statistics still show much higher rates of domestic violence than the average.

Opposite Conditions, Similar Rates

Looking at the various unemployment rates in the states, Alaska’s problems seem obvious but upon closer examination one begins to wonder. The third highest unemployment rate is Washington D.C. which is almost a polar opposite to all the factors in Alaska. D.C. is small, densely populated, has unlimited infrastructure, no oil reserves but it can draw funds from the entire country and it still has a surprisingly high unemployment rate at 6.2%. So two polar opposite places have similar unemployment rates.

Similar Conditions, Different Rates

So let’s look at it the other way around and look at [Read more…] about High Unemployment Rates in Alaska and D.C.