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May Unemployment Data

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unemployment_rate_May_2015The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the newest unemployment data for May 2015 on Friday June 5th. According to the BLS, the current “Seasonally Adjusted” Unemployment Rate for May is 5.5% up from April’s 5.4%. The BLS reported the “Unadjusted” Unemployment Rate is 5.3% which is lower than October’s unadjusted 5.5% and January’s 6.1% but up from April’s 5.1%.  See Current Unemployment Chart for more information.

U.S. Employment-2000- May 2015The BLS “preliminary estimates” for the employment situation for the month of May 2015 include 142.420 million jobs reported for May 2015. That was up 970,000 from April. But at the same time they revised the numbers for April down by 12,000. See Current Employment Commentary for more information.

Employment vs UnemploymentWhen looking at employment vs. unemployment  you would think that they would simply be the inverse of each other. Flip one over and you have the other. But the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) actually uses two entirely different surveys to calculate them. So by [Read more…] about May Unemployment Data

BLS Releases Unemployment Rates for April

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The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Employment and Unemployment rates for the month of April 2015 on Friday May 8th.  The commonly quoted Seasonally Adjusted U-3 Unemployment rate was 5.4% down slightly from 5.5% in both February and March.

The unadjusted U3 was 5.1% while the broader unadjusted U6 [Read more…] about BLS Releases Unemployment Rates for April

March 2015 Unemployment Flat

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The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the March Unemployment figures on Friday April 3rd. According to the BLS the Current Unemployment Rate (Seasonally adjusted) for March was 5.5% unchanged from February. The Unadjusted Unemployment rate however fell from 5.8% to 5.6%. However, according to Gallup the Unadjusted Unemployment rate was actually 6.5% and the U-6 unemployment rate was 15.6% down from 16.1% in February.

Unemployment Numbers According to Gallup

 

Unadjusted U-3 Unadjusted U-6
BLS 5.6% 11.0%
Gallup 6.5% 15.6%
Difference 0.9% 4.7%

Once again the BLS numbers are quite a bit different than the [Read more…] about March 2015 Unemployment Flat

BLS Releases February Unemployment Numbers

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The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the February Unemployment figures on Friday March 6th. According to the BLS the Current Unemployment Rate (Seasonally adjusted) for February was 5.5% down from 5.7% in January. Along the same lines we see the Unadjusted Unemployment rates fall from 6.1% to 5.8%.  However, according to Gallup the Unadjusted Unemployment rate was actually 6.7% and the U-6 unemployment rate was 16.1%.

Unemployment Numbers According to Gallup

 

Unadjusted U-3 Unadjusted U-6
BLS 5.8% 11.4%
Gallup 6.7% 16.1%
Difference 0.9% 4.7%

Once again the BLS numbers are quite a bit different than the [Read more…] about BLS Releases February Unemployment Numbers

The Big Lie – Part 2

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Last week we published an article titled Gallup Head Says Unemployment Rate is “A Big Lie” in it we said that, the big news is that Jim Clifton the CEO of Gallup said that unemployment is really closer to 9%. Here’s what he said:

There’s no other way to say this. The official unemployment rate, which cruelly overlooks the suffering of the long-term and often permanently unemployed as well as the depressingly underemployed, amounts to a Big Lie.

Today the editors of Elliott Wave International look at the implications of that statement and how it relates to inflation and deflation. ~Tim McMahon, editor

The “Big Lie” About the U.S. Jobs Picture

Some 30 million people are either out of work or severely underemployed

By Elliott Wave International

Editor’s note: You’ll find the text version of the story below the video.

The financial media has recently featured stories with an upbeat outlook for the U.S. economy.

For example: The economy is on track for “the fastest growth in a decade” (Associated Press), and “Experts expect jobs aplenty in ’15” (USA Today).

This upbeat tone is related to December’s U.S. jobless rate of 5.6%, its lowest since June 2008.

But [Read more…] about The Big Lie – Part 2

November Unemployment Rate Flat

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The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the November Unemployment figures on December 5th. The Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate was 5.8% the same as the October. The Unadjusted Unemployment rate was also flat at 5.5% for November.

BLS_vs_Gallup_Unemployment_2_Nov2014Once again the BLS numbers are quite a bit different than the independently generated Gallup numbers. This is no surprise, based on the long-term comparison between the BLS numbers and the Gallup numbers the BLS numbers consistently present a rosier picture than the Gallup numbers do.

According to surveys by [Read more…] about November Unemployment Rate Flat

October Unemployment Figures

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The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the October Unemployment figures on November 7th. The Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate was 5.8% down from 5.9% in September. The Unadjusted Unemployment rate was also down from 5.7% in September to 5.5% in October but traditionally October has one of the highest employment (lowest unemployment) levels of the year.

BLS vs Gallup UnemploymentFor July and August the BLS numbers were surprisingly close to the Gallup numbers but it appears that the period of sanity has ended. In September the BLS numbers went down while the Gallup numbers went up. Although both sets of numbers went down in October the gap between them is still big enough to drive a truck through.

Gallup says the unadjusted Unemployment rate is 6.2% while the BLS says it is only 5.5% for a 0.7% difference. That is a 12.7% margin of error. Notice the major divergence at the end of the chart. [Read more…] about October Unemployment Figures

BLS Releases July Unemployment: 6.2% Up from 6.1% in June

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The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the July Unemployment figures on August 1st. The Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate was 6.2% up from 6.1% in June. The Unadjusted Unemployment rate was also up from 6.3% in June to 6.5% July. Of course the spin-doctors at the BLS said it was “virtually unchanged”.

BLS vs Gallup Unemployment NumbersIn a surprising turn of events, the unadjusted BLS numbers actually agree with the Gallup numbers with the rare occurrence that the BLS numbers are actually higher than the Gallup numbers for the first time in 17 months.

Of course, we shouldn’t get too excited because the “adjusted numbers” are still a bit on the low side and the smoke and mirrors coming out of the BLS have simply shifted to the Employment numbers.

Employment Numbers

According to the commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly report, “Total non-farm payroll employment increased by 209,000 in July, the same as its average monthly gain over the prior 12 months. In July, employment grew in professional and business services, manufacturing, retail trade, and construction.”

So we might begin to wonder if Employment went up, how did unemployment also go up? Of course, the [Read more…] about BLS Releases July Unemployment: 6.2% Up from 6.1% in June

Government Shutdown Delays Unemployment Data

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Due to the government shutdown the Bureau of Labor Statistics is not publishing the regular Unemployment statistics.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President, Dennis Lockhart, says that it is fortunate that the FED chose not to begin “tapering” the money stimulus under the circumstances.  “We avoided a potentially very awkward situation of reducing stimulus just on  the eve of what now has developed” he said.

UnemploymentWhether the Quantitative Easing is actually having much of an effect on unemployment or not is a discussion for another day. But as we said in a recent article entitled: What’s So Bad about Shutting the Government Down? since we don’t have BLS numbers we will turn to the free market and get our numbers elsewhere. Besides, free market numbers are probably more accurate anyway.

Speaking of accuracy, according to [Read more…] about Government Shutdown Delays Unemployment Data

New Unemployment Law and Lawsuits in New York

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New York City has enacted legislation that would bar employers from discriminating against unemployed job applicants effective June 11, 2013. This legislation has been met with dismay since many believe that it will lead to disruption in the hiring process.

Furthermore, a large number of lawsuits can also be expected under this new law. While the New York City Council which formed the legislation tried to protect the interests of employees, like most legislation it just ends up making the process more complex.

Effects of the New Law

LawsuitThe new law that is in place is definitely going to make hiring a mess. The reason is that unemployed people who get rejected can target the business in expensive lawsuits. No business owner likes being vulnerable to lawsuits especially in the case of employment scenarios.

The main target of the legislation is to prevent and ban employers from discriminating in the case there are unemployed job applicants. The New York City Council had brought forth the law based on [Read more…] about New Unemployment Law and Lawsuits in New York