A Closer Look at All Those New U.S. Jobs

Much of the talk about the U.S. job market is that it’s far less robust than it use to be, despite a steady improvement in the official jobless rate since the Great Recession high of 10.0% in October 2009. This October, the official unemployment rate was 5%.

In truth, the real jobless rate would be 9.8% if those who have given up looking for work and part-timers who want a full-time job were included.

The Big Lie – Part 2

Why is [the U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate] falling when job growth is rising? The answer, we think, is the emerging force of deflation. Notice that the peak participation rate of 67.3% came from January to March 2000, as the major stock indexes topped, after which inflation first began to falter. When stocks rallied to their 2007 top, there was a mild bounce in the rate, but the latest stock market rally failed to generate any sustained rise in the rate of work force participation.

How DEEP Will Cuts in Government Services Go?

Plus: The check is STILL in the mail. “Localities have chopped 535,000 positions since September 2008…” USA Today (10/18) Cuts in government services became conspicuous after the 2007-2009 financial crisis. The first edition of Robert Prechter’s Conquer the Crash saw this coming, even though the book published nearly a decade ago: “Don’t expect government services […]