Unemployment

Is the U.S. Really at “Full Employment”?

January 6, 2017 by Tim McMahon

Back in February of 2016 Fortune magazine published an article entitled “The U.S. Economy Is Finally at Full Employment” and then in May CNN-Money published an article entitled The U.S. is ‘basically at full employment’ quoting San Francisco Federal Reserve President John Williams as saying “We’re basically at full employment…that’s very good news.”

“We’re basically at full employment…that’s very good news.” San Francisco Federal Reserve President John Williams

So what is “Full-Employment” and are we really there? At first glance you might think that full employment should equal 0% and with the current unemployment rate hovering around 4.7% we obviously aren’t there. But Full employment, in macroeconomics, is defined by many economists as being an acceptable level of unemployment somewhere above 0%.

Even when employers are having difficulty finding employees some people are [Read more…] about Is the U.S. Really at “Full Employment”?

November Unemployment Rates- Economic Confidence Up After Election

December 3, 2016 by Tim McMahon

On Friday, December 2^nd the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their Employment and Unemployment data for the month of November. According to the BLS numbers Seasonally Adjusted U-3 unemployment was 4.6% down from 4.9% in October. Unadjusted U-3 was 4.4% down from 4.7%. According to Gallup unadjusted U-3 was 4.9% down from 5.1%.

U-6 unemployment was 9.0% according to the BLS down from 9.2% in October while Gallup’s equivalent “Underemployment Rate” was at 13%.

Interestingly, Gallup’s “Economic Confidence” jumped into positive territory shortly after the election for the first time since early 2015 and for only the second time since the index was created in early 2009. The week prior to the election economic confidence was at -11 and currently it is at +4. According to Gallup, “This is the first positive weekly reading in more than a year and a half.” Read the full story.

In other political news, President-Elect Trump has already set the tone for his Presidency by convincing Carrier to not outsource 1000 of the planned 2000 jobs slated to go to Mexico.

Current Unemployment Rate Chart-

According to the BLS Commissioner’s report for this month: [Read more…] about November Unemployment Rates- Economic Confidence Up After Election

Financial Solutions for Unemployed Dads

September 13, 2016 by Guest Contributor

While people often view mothers who stay home with their children in a positive way, they may look down on stay at home dads. When you lose your job, it can take months until you find another one. This can be stressful and financially difficult for unemployed dads.

Unemployment is stressful and depressing, between applying for jobs, searching for positions online, going through phone interviews and meeting with HR directors, in addition to finding ways to pay your bills and cover your financial responsibilities, you need to plan for future financial emergencies. The one upside you might look forward to spending some time at home with your kids.

Unemployed Dads Work from Home

There are thousands of jobs that you can do from home. U-Haul, 1-800-Flowers and other companies hire workers to answer phone calls and take orders from home. With the growing virtual employment sector at sites like freelancer say that you can browse over 600 categories of jobs including programming, web development, design, writing, data entry & more. While some of these jobs can pay well over $10 an hour, keep in mind that you’re usually responsible for paying your own taxes based off how much you make. You could also start your own business doing landscaping, babysitting or even pet walking from home.

Unemployed Dads Should Be Prepared

Experts like Family Financial Partners, tell us that [Read more…] about Financial Solutions for Unemployed Dads

Employment and Unemployment Rates Jump in June???

July 8, 2016 by Tim McMahon

On Friday July 8th, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their newest unemployment data for June 2016. According to the BLS, the current “Seasonally Adjusted” Unemployment Rate is 4.9% up from 4.7% for May. The current “Unadjusted” rate is 5.1% up from 4.5% in May.

In an interesting twist, although total non-farm payroll employment increased by 287,000 in June, the unemployment rate also rose to 4.9 percent from 4.7%. [Read more…] about Employment and Unemployment Rates Jump in June???

May’s “Terrible” Jobs Report

June 4, 2016 by Tim McMahon

On June 3^rd the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its “surprisingly weak” monthly Employment Report which the media is touting as “terrible”. According to the media “only 38,000 jobs were created” in the month of May. Although experts were predicting an increase two or three times as large.

This was the smallest gain since September 2010 partially fueled by the Verizon strike of 34,000 but even with that extra 34,000 payrolls would have increased by only 72,000. Fed Chair Janet Yellen has said monthly gains of roughly 100,000 jobs are needed to keep up with growth in the work-age population.

However, like most Government statistics it is only half the story. First of all, the numbers quoted are

A Closer Look at All Those New U.S. Jobs

November 12, 2015 by Elliott Wave International

U.S. labor force participation rate is at its lowest level in 38 years

A Closer Look at All Those New U.S. Jobs
U.S. labor force participation rate is at its lowest level in 38 years

By Elliott Wave International

Editor’s note: You’ll find a text version of the story below the video.

I was in the café of a bookstore recently and overheard a young man tell his friend, “It’s hard to get a job these days, even with a degree.”

Of course, this was just one comment, and anecdotes are not a substitute for statistics.

But much of the talk about the U.S. job market is that it’s far less robust than it use to be, despite a steady improvement in the official jobless rate since the Great Recession high of 10.0% in October 2009. This October, the official unemployment rate was 5%.

In truth, the real jobless rate would be [Read more…] about A Closer Look at All Those New U.S. Jobs

August Unemployment Down

September 4, 2015 by Tim McMahon

The BLS issued their “preliminary estimates” for the employment situation for the month of August 2015. The Commissioner’s report regarding the Seasonally Adjusted numbers says, “Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 173,000 in August, and the unemployment rate edged down to 5.1 percent. Employment rose in health care and social assistance and in financial activities, while manufacturing and mining employment declined.”

The full report of unadjusted numbers states that there were 142.126 Million jobs in August compared to 141.794 million jobs in July and 142.868 million jobs in June.

See Current Employment Commentary for more information.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) also released the newest unemployment data for August 2015 today. According to the BLS, the current “Seasonally Adjusted” Unemployment Rate for July is 5.1% down from July’s 5.3%. The BLS reported the “Unadjusted” Unemployment Rate is 5.2% which is lower than July’s 5.6% . See Current Unemployment Chart for more information.

In our chart of employment vs. unemployment we compare them and although you would expect that employment and unemployment are simply the inverse of each other (i.e flip one over and you have the other) actually there are several anomalies in the data. Because the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) uses two separate surveys to calculate the data it helps us see [Read more…] about August Unemployment Down

July Unemployment Data Released

August 7, 2015 by Tim McMahon

The BLS issued their “preliminary estimates” for the employment situation for the month of July 2015. Their abbreviated report using seasonally adjusted numbers says, “Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 215,000 in July, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in retail trade, health care, professional and technical services, and financial activities.”

The full report of unadjusted numbers states that there were 141.794 million jobs in July down from 142.817 million jobs initially reported in June. At the same time they revised the numbers for June up to 142.839 million making the real loss of jobs -1,045,000. See Current Employment Commentary for more information.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) also released the newest unemployment data for July 2015 today. According to the BLS, the current “Seasonally Adjusted” Unemployment Rate for July is 5.3% the same as June but down from May’s 5.5%. The BLS reported the “Unadjusted” Unemployment Rate is 5.6% which is lower than January’s 6.1% but up from June’s unadjusted 5.5%. See Current Unemployment Chart for more information.

Normally, you would expect that employment and unemployment should simply be the inverse of each other. Flip one over and you have the other. However, in the chart of employment vs. unemployment we see several anomalies in the data. Since the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) actually uses two entirely different surveys to calculate them it helps us see [Read more…] about July Unemployment Data Released

June Unemployment Data

July 2, 2015 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the newest unemployment data for June 2015 on the first Thursday of July (rather than Friday due to the holiday). According to the BLS, the current “Seasonally Adjusted” Unemployment Rate for June is 5.3% down from May’s 5.5%. The BLS reported the “Unadjusted” Unemployment Rate is 5.5% which is lower than January’s 6.1% equal to last October’s unadjusted 5.5% but up from April’s 5.1%. See Current Unemployment Chart and Job Growth Stalls, Labor Participation at 38-Year Low for more information. The BLS issued their “preliminary estimates” for the employment situation for the month of June 2015. The report states 142.589 million jobs reported. That’s up 455,000 from May. But at the same time they revised the numbers for May down by 58,000 making the real gain (compared to the numbers they reported last month) 397,000. See Current Employment Commentary for more information.

Historical Employment Levels Compared to Recessions

In addition to the number of jobs from 1939 through the present this chart shows the recessions shaded blue as per the official description of a “recession” by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Although during some periods which are classified as official recessions the unemployment rate didn’t skyrocket generally, recessions correspond pretty well to declines in employment (i.e. increased Unemployment). This is especially true since unemployment is one of the factors NBER uses to determine whether there is an official recession. But theoretically if all the other factors line up employment could remain steady and the economy could be in a recession. See Employment During Recessions for more information. In this chart we compare employment vs. unemployment in an effort to get a more complete picture of the employment situation. Normally, you would think that they should simply be the inverse of each other. Flip one over and you have the other. But the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) actually uses two entirely different surveys to calculate them. And the current chart shows [Read more…] about June Unemployment Data

May Unemployment Data

June 5, 2015 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the newest unemployment data for May 2015 on Friday June 5^th. According to the BLS, the current “Seasonally Adjusted” Unemployment Rate for May is 5.5% up from April’s 5.4%. The BLS reported the “Unadjusted” Unemployment Rate is 5.3% which is lower than October’s unadjusted 5.5% and January’s 6.1% but up from April’s 5.1%. See Current Unemployment Chart for more information.

The BLS “preliminary estimates” for the employment situation for the month of May 2015 include 142.420 million jobs reported for May 2015. That was up 970,000 from April. But at the same time they revised the numbers for April down by 12,000. See Current Employment Commentary for more information.

When looking at employment vs. unemployment you would think that they would simply be the inverse of each other. Flip one over and you have the other. But the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) actually uses two entirely different surveys to calculate them. So by [Read more…] about May Unemployment Data