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You are here: Home / Archives for Tim McMahon

Tim McMahon, Editor of UnemploymentData.com

My grandfather lived through the Hyperinflation in Weimar, Germany--to say he was an original “gold bug” would be an understatement. I began reading his “hard money” newsletters at the age of 16 and the dividends from gold stocks helped put me through college. I began publishing the Financial Trend Forecaster paper newsletter in 1995 upon the death of James Moore editor of Your Window into the Future and the creator of the Moore Inflation Predictor©. FTF specializes in trends in the stock market, gold, inflation and bonds. In January of 2003, I began publishing InflationData.com to specialize in all forms of information about the nature of Inflation. In 2009, we added Elliott Wave University to help teach you the principles of Elliott Wave analysis. In January 2013, we began publishing OptioMoney. Connect with Tim on Google+.

High Paid Miners Now Working at Walmart?

October 2, 2015 by Tim McMahon

Employment-1939-2015_AugSeptember Employment Numbers Disappointing

Apparently U.S. employers cut back on hiring over the last two months. The expectation by economists polled by Reuters was that there would be a net gain of 203,000 jobs in September.

But when the BLS released their “preliminary estimates” for the employment situation for September non-farm employment rose by only 142,000 in September. And to make matters worse, August numbers were adjusted down resulting in the smallest Seasonally adjusted two month gain in over a year.

The BLS Commissioner’s report stated, “Job gains occurred in health care and information, while mining employment fell… The number of persons unemployed for less than 5 weeks increased by 268,000 to 2.4 million in September, partially offsetting a decline in August… Thus far in 2015, job growth has averaged 198,000 per month, compared with an average monthly gain of 260,000 in 2014.”

So 2015 has averaged only 76% the job growth that 2014 had and at 142,000 September was only 54% of 2014’s average. 34,000 new jobs were created by healthcare, 31,000 came from professional and business services, 24,000 from retail trade employment, and food services and drinking places added 21,000 jobs. On the other hand, mining and mining support lost -17,000 jobs. So it appears all the high paid mining workers are now working at either McDonald’s or Walmart. Not a good trend at all!

See Current Employment Commentary for more information.

Unemployment Rate September 2015The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) also released the newest unemployment data for September 2015 today. According to the BLS, the current “Seasonally Adjusted” Unemployment Rate for September is 5.1% identical to August. The BLS reported the “Unadjusted” Unemployment Rate is 4.9% which is lower than August’s 5.2% . See Current Unemployment Chart for more information.

Employment vs UnemploymentIn our chart of employment vs. unemployment we compare them and although you would expect that employment and unemployment are simply the inverse of each other (i.e flip one over and you have the other) actually there are several anomalies in the data. Because the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) uses two separate surveys to calculate the data it helps us see [Read more…] about High Paid Miners Now Working at Walmart?

Filed Under: BLS Tagged With: BLS, September Employment, unemployment, Walmart

Six Unexpected Payoffs of Having a Sales Job

October 1, 2015 by Tim McMahon

Sales ProfessionalIn an age where companies must use a wide range of different marketing tactics to compete, the salesman has somewhat of a bad reputation. While many salespeople are helpful professionals, many people think of the aggressive telemarketer or the high-pressure car salesman when they picture what it looks like to work in sales. In actuality, sales jobs can be extremely lucrative and the experience attained can offer professionals an extreme advantage in the job market. Here are six payoffs you might not expect to have when you start a career in sales.

Rewards Go Beyond Just Commissions

Whenever you take a job, you expect to be paid as long as you are performing. Most people know that the top-selling professionals who are working for the right company can earn serious coin by hitting their targets. While a good salary and fair commissions are important, you need to look beyond the money. Many companies will offer their top salespeople company cars, bonuses, cruises, trips for conferences, and other perks that will make life in and out of the office more [Read more…] about Six Unexpected Payoffs of Having a Sales Job

Filed Under: Careers Tagged With: Perks, Sales, Salesman

August Unemployment Down

September 4, 2015 by Tim McMahon

Employment-1939-2015_AugThe BLS issued their “preliminary estimates” for the employment situation for the month of August 2015. The Commissioner’s report regarding the Seasonally Adjusted numbers says, “Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 173,000 in August, and the unemployment rate edged down to 5.1 percent. Employment rose in health care and social assistance and in financial activities, while manufacturing and mining employment declined.”

The full report of unadjusted numbers states that there were 142.126 Million jobs in August compared to 141.794 million jobs in July and 142.868 million jobs in June.

See Current Employment Commentary for more information.

Unemployment Rate Chart - August 2015The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) also released the newest unemployment data for August 2015 today. According to the BLS, the current “Seasonally Adjusted” Unemployment Rate for July is 5.1%  down from July’s 5.3%. The BLS reported the “Unadjusted” Unemployment Rate is 5.2% which is lower than July’s 5.6% . See Current Unemployment Chart for more information.

emp vs unemp 2010- Aug 2015In our chart of employment vs. unemployment we compare them and although you would expect that employment and unemployment are simply the inverse of each other (i.e flip one over and you have the other) actually there are several anomalies in the data. Because the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) uses two separate surveys to calculate the data it helps us see [Read more…] about August Unemployment Down

Filed Under: Unemployment Tagged With: BLS, Bureau of Labor Statistics, employment, unemployment

Tips for Finding the Right Employee

August 12, 2015 by Tim McMahon

Interview Intuition Tips for Narrowing Your Candidate PoolYour employees are the heart of your business, so hiring the right applicant is a huge decision you want to get right the first time. Large-platform job-search sites can generate hundreds of applicants for your opening, but you’ll need to develop a good strategy for limiting that pool if you want to find the perfect candidate. Below are five tips to help you narrow your applicant field and attract the candidates you really want.

Know Who You Want

Before you list your job opening, [Read more…] about Tips for Finding the Right Employee

Filed Under: General Tagged With: Employee, hiring

July Unemployment Data Released

August 7, 2015 by Tim McMahon

Employment July 2015The BLS issued their “preliminary estimates” for the employment situation for the month of July 2015. Their abbreviated report using seasonally adjusted numbers says, “Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 215,000 in July, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in retail trade, health care, professional and technical services, and financial activities.”

The full report of unadjusted numbers states that there were 141.794 million jobs in July down from 142.817 million jobs initially reported in June.  At the same time they revised the numbers for June up to 142.839 million making the real loss of jobs -1,045,000. See Current Employment Commentary for more information.

Unemployment rate July 2015The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) also released the newest unemployment data for July 2015 today. According to the BLS, the current “Seasonally Adjusted” Unemployment Rate for July is 5.3% the same as June but down from May’s 5.5%. The BLS reported the “Unadjusted” Unemployment Rate is 5.6% which is lower than January’s 6.1% but up from June’s unadjusted 5.5%. See Current Unemployment Chart for more information.

Employment vs. Unemployment ComparisonNormally, you would expect that employment and unemployment should simply be the inverse of each other. Flip one over and you have the other. However, in the chart of employment vs. unemployment we see several anomalies in the data.   Since the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) actually uses two entirely different surveys to calculate them it helps us see [Read more…] about July Unemployment Data Released

Filed Under: Unemployment Tagged With: July, unemployment, unemployment rate

June Unemployment Data

July 2, 2015 by Tim McMahon

Current Unemployment Rate ChartThe U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the newest unemployment data for June 2015 on the first Thursday of July (rather than Friday due to the holiday).  According to the BLS, the current “Seasonally Adjusted” Unemployment Rate for June is 5.3% down from May’s 5.5%. The BLS reported the “Unadjusted” Unemployment Rate is 5.5% which is  lower than January’s 6.1% equal to last October’s unadjusted 5.5% but up from April’s 5.1%. See Current Unemployment Chart and Job Growth Stalls, Labor Participation at 38-Year Low for more information. Employment-2000-Jun-2015The BLS issued their “preliminary estimates” for the employment situation for the month of June 2015. The report states 142.589 million jobs reported. That’s up 455,000 from May. But at the same time they revised the numbers for May down by 58,000 making the real gain (compared to the numbers they reported last month) 397,000. See Current Employment Commentary for more information.

Historical Employment Levels Compared to Recessions

IEmployment Levels 1939-2015n addition to the number of jobs from 1939 through the present this chart shows the recessions shaded blue as per the official description of a “recession” by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Although during some periods which are classified as official recessions the unemployment rate didn’t skyrocket generally, recessions correspond pretty well to declines in employment (i.e. increased Unemployment). This is especially true since unemployment is one of the factors NBER uses to determine whether there is an official recession. But theoretically if all the other factors line up employment could remain steady and the economy could be in a recession. See Employment During Recessions for more information. emp-vs-unemp2010- Jun2015In this chart we compare employment vs. unemployment in an effort to get a more complete picture of the employment situation. Normally, you would think that they should simply be the inverse of each other. Flip one over and you have the other. But the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) actually uses two entirely different surveys to calculate them. And the current chart shows [Read more…] about June Unemployment Data

Filed Under: Unemployment Tagged With: Data, June 2015, Release, unemployment

May Unemployment Data

June 5, 2015 by Tim McMahon

unemployment_rate_May_2015The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the newest unemployment data for May 2015 on Friday June 5th. According to the BLS, the current “Seasonally Adjusted” Unemployment Rate for May is 5.5% up from April’s 5.4%. The BLS reported the “Unadjusted” Unemployment Rate is 5.3% which is lower than October’s unadjusted 5.5% and January’s 6.1% but up from April’s 5.1%.  See Current Unemployment Chart for more information.

U.S. Employment-2000- May 2015The BLS “preliminary estimates” for the employment situation for the month of May 2015 include 142.420 million jobs reported for May 2015. That was up 970,000 from April. But at the same time they revised the numbers for April down by 12,000. See Current Employment Commentary for more information.

Employment vs UnemploymentWhen looking at employment vs. unemployment  you would think that they would simply be the inverse of each other. Flip one over and you have the other. But the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) actually uses two entirely different surveys to calculate them. So by [Read more…] about May Unemployment Data

Filed Under: Unemployment Tagged With: employment, unemployment

BLS Releases Unemployment Rates for April

May 9, 2015 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Employment and Unemployment rates for the month of April 2015 on Friday May 8th.  The commonly quoted Seasonally Adjusted U-3 Unemployment rate was 5.4% down slightly from 5.5% in both February and March.

The unadjusted U3 was 5.1% while the broader unadjusted U6 [Read more…] about BLS Releases Unemployment Rates for April

Filed Under: General Tagged With: April 2015, employment, unemployment

March 2015 Unemployment Flat

April 3, 2015 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the March Unemployment figures on Friday April 3rd. According to the BLS the Current Unemployment Rate (Seasonally adjusted) for March was 5.5% unchanged from February. The Unadjusted Unemployment rate however fell from 5.8% to 5.6%. However, according to Gallup the Unadjusted Unemployment rate was actually 6.5% and the U-6 unemployment rate was 15.6% down from 16.1% in February.

Unemployment Numbers According to Gallup

 

Unadjusted U-3 Unadjusted U-6
BLS 5.6% 11.0%
Gallup 6.5% 15.6%
Difference 0.9% 4.7%

Once again the BLS numbers are quite a bit different than the [Read more…] about March 2015 Unemployment Flat

Filed Under: Unemployment Tagged With: 2015, BLS, Data, March, unemployment

BLS Releases February Unemployment Numbers

March 6, 2015 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the February Unemployment figures on Friday March 6th. According to the BLS the Current Unemployment Rate (Seasonally adjusted) for February was 5.5% down from 5.7% in January. Along the same lines we see the Unadjusted Unemployment rates fall from 6.1% to 5.8%.  However, according to Gallup the Unadjusted Unemployment rate was actually 6.7% and the U-6 unemployment rate was 16.1%.

Unemployment Numbers According to Gallup

 

Unadjusted U-3 Unadjusted U-6
BLS 5.8% 11.4%
Gallup 6.7% 16.1%
Difference 0.9% 4.7%

Once again the BLS numbers are quite a bit different than the [Read more…] about BLS Releases February Unemployment Numbers

Filed Under: Unemployment Tagged With: employment, unemployment

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