Tim McMahon, Editor of UnemploymentData.com

My grandfather lived through the Hyperinflation in Weimar, Germany--to say he was an original “gold bug” would be an understatement. I began reading his “hard money” newsletters at the age of 16 and the dividends from gold stocks helped put me through college. I began publishing the Financial Trend Forecaster paper newsletter in 1995 upon the death of James Moore editor of Your Window into the Future and the creator of the Moore Inflation Predictor©. FTF specializes in trends in the stock market, gold, inflation and bonds. In January of 2003, I began publishing InflationData.com to specialize in all forms of information about the nature of Inflation. In 2009, we added Elliott Wave University to help teach you the principles of Elliott Wave analysis. In January 2013, we began publishing OptioMoney. Connect with Tim on Google+.

July Unemployment Unchanged But…

August 3, 2019 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its monthly unemployment survey results for July on August 2^nd. Unemployment is still near record lows but this month’s Unemployment report was a bit of a “mixed bag” with some positive news and some not quite so positive.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 164,000 in July, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7 percent. Notable job gains occurred in professional and technical services, health care, social assistance, and financial activities.

The July increase in payroll employment was in line with the average monthly job gain in the first half of the year (+165,000), but below the average monthly job gain of 223,000 for 2018. (Incorporating revisions for May and June, which decreased employment by 41,000, monthly job gains have averaged 140,000 over the past 3 months.) ”

Of course he is talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs” in reality there were 152.307 million people employed according to the BLS’ June report and then they adjusted it down to 152.242 million but in July there are only 151.183 million employed so there was either a decrease of -1.059 million jobs based on the new numbers or a decrease of -1.124 million based on the original numbers. But there were only 148.295 million employed in January so there about 2.88 million more people employed in July than in January.

For more info see our Current Unemployment Chart and Current U.S. Employment Chart commentary:

Key July Employment and Unemployment Numbers

Adjusted U-3 Unemployment- 3.7% Unchanged from June
Unadjusted U-3 Unemployment- 4.0% Up from 3.8% in June and 3.4% in May but still below 4.1% in February, and 4.4% in January.
Unadjusted U-6 Unemployment- 7.3% down from 7.5% in June Up from 6.7% in May. It was 7.5% in March, 7.7% in February and 8.8% in January.
Unadjusted Employment (Establishment Survey)- 151.183 million down from 152.307 million in June up from 148.295 million in January.
Labor Force Participation Rate- 63.0% up from 62.9% June, 62.8% in April and May but unchanged from 63.0% in March and still below the peak of 63.2% in February.

Although they rose a notch in June (and stayed there in July), current Seasonally Adjusted U-3 levels are still below the 3.8% lows of 2000. Prior to that, we have to go all the way back to 1969 to see better unemployment levels than we have currently. If we break below 3.4% we have to go all the way back to 1953 (during the Korean War) to find lower levels. And we must remember that there was a massive loss of the workforce due to the war, and a higher percentage of the population was not counted due to “farming”, so we probably won’t see levels that low again. The 1969 lows occurred during the Vietnam war. Prior to 1969 was a low of 3.7% in 1957 so we are currently at that level. As we can see from the above chart we are in one of only 5 “green zones” where unemployment levels are below 4%. Not even the “boom” period 2006-2007 reached such low levels.

4 Tips for Job Searching with Little Work Experience

July 23, 2019 by Tim McMahon

Much like the Hunger Games, corporate America is a dog-eat-dog world. so you must prove your merit in order to get ahead. Without a lot of job experience, demonstrating your value to a company can prove difficult. If you’re new to the world of business, here are some tips on how to get started.

Network, Network, Network

Whether you’re pursuing a lifeguard job for summer break, a warehouse job once out of high school, or your first job out of college, networking is the backbone of good business. According to Payscale.com between 70 and 85 percent of all jobs are found through networking.

Not only does networking help cultivate social skills, but it helps you get your foot in the proverbial door as well. Search online for events happening in your area. You’re bound to meet an assortment of like-minded individuals who match your enthusiasm. After all, it’s not what you know but rather who you know that’ll take you far in business.

Unemployment By State and Political Party

July 19, 2019 by Tim McMahon

Unemployment rates were lower in June in 6 states and stable in 44 states and the District of Columbia, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Three states had jobless rate decreases from a year earlier and 47 states and the District had little or no change.

Vermont had the lowest unemployment rate in June, 2.1 percent. The rates in Alabama (3.5 percent), Arkansas (3.5 percent), New Jersey (3.5 percent), and Texas (3.4 percent) set new series lows. (All state series begin in 1976.) Alaska and Puerto Rico had the highest jobless rates, at 6.4 and 8.4 percent respectively. In total, 13 states had unemployment rates lower than the U.S. figure of 3.7 percent, 9 states and the District of Columbia had higher rates, and 28 states had rates that were not appreciably different from that of the nation.

Table of U.S. State Political Party statistics as of January 2019

I’ve sorted the following table by political party. If we look at it this way, we can see that [Read more…] about Unemployment By State and Political Party

Being Unemployed Is Tough… Doing These 8 Things Can Make Your Life Better

July 18, 2019 by Tim McMahon

We hear all the time how good unemployment rates are looking. As of right now, they’re hovering around record lows of just 3.7%. What you don’t hear much about are the people that comprise that 3.7%.

That percentage represents millions of Americans that want to be working right now but can’t find a job that they feel suits their unique talents and sensibilities. If you’re one of the people that are in the midst of searching for a good gig, we want you to know that you shouldn’t treat being unemployed like it’s a permanent problem.

There are a number of things that you can do right now to make the most out of your situation. Here are 8 of the top things that we recommend.

1. Stay on a Schedule

Being unemployed shouldn’t be an excuse for you to stay awake until 3 am and stay sleep until 3 pm. Not only does that schedule make it so you’re not able to fully maximize your time but it also will be hard to transition out of when you do get a job again.

Do everything in your power to manage your schedule the same way that you would if you were working a full-time job. Get up at a reasonable hour, be productive during the day and go to sleep before midnight.

2. Engage With Temp Agencies

If being unemployed is causing you financial stress and you need to earn cash ASAP, head over to a temp agency. Temp agencies are groups that have connections with a variety of companies. When the companies that they work with need jobs filled for limited periods of time, temp agencies send people to fill the need.

That person that gets sent in could be you. Many temp jobs pay rather well. Furthermore, temp jobs have been known to serve as excellent gateways into full-time employment. [Read more…] about Being Unemployed Is Tough… Doing These 8 Things Can Make Your Life Better

4 Degrees to Consider if You Want a Job Right out of College

July 16, 2019 by Tim McMahon

Choosing a major isn’t always about launching a high-income career, but job prospects are an integral part of the degree decision for many students. While there are hundreds of programs in dozens of academic fields that can lead to a rewarding career, there are a few particularly promising paths that degree seekers should consider.

Accounting

Accounting has been a go-to degree for many career-minded college students over the last few decades and it’s still a strong choice. There is unparalleled opportunity for specialization and advancement without a high barrier to entry. A bachelor’s degree is sufficient for many entry-level positions, while a master’s degree and industry experience can qualify accountants for more advanced certifications. There is a high demand for accountants of all skill levels in both government and private sector positions. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, “The median annual wage for bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks was $40,240 in May 2018.” A Certified Public Accountant would earn more. Typical Entry-Level Education is Some college, no degree required to become a bookkeeper but is preferred for a career in Accounting.

Information Systems and Technology

Computer science is another strong degree choice for students who want to get a job right out of college. Programming and software design are core skills for almost any profession in the industry, but there are also plenty of opportunities to branch out into other areas. Information systems administration and database management are both useful skills for landing jobs, as is cybersecurity and mobile application development. The following table from the Bureau of Labor Statistics lists a variety of Computer related jobs and their median salaries.

The median annual wage for computer and information technology occupations was $86,320 in May 2018, which was higher than the median annual wage for all occupations of $38,640.

June Unemployment Higher

July 6, 2019 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly unemployment survey results for June on July 5^th. Unemployment is still near record lows but it has ticked up a bit.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

” Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 224,000 in June, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 3.7 percent.
Over the month, notable job gains occurred in professional and business services, in health care, and in transportation and warehousing.”

Of course the Commissioner is talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs” in reality there were 152.307 million people employed in June up from 151.600 million employed in May so the actual increase was 707,000 new jobs in June. There were only 148.295 million employed in January so there are over 4 million more people employed in June than in January!

Key factors in the report were:

Employment in Professional and Business Services increased by 51,000…
Health care employment increased by 35,000 in June…
Employment in transportation and warehousing increased by 24,000
Construction employment rose by 21,000…

For more info see our Current Unemployment Chart and Current U.S. Employment Chart commentary:

Key June Employment and Unemployment Numbers

Adjusted U-3 Unemployment- 3.7% Up from 3.6% in May
Unadjusted U-3 Unemployment- 3.8% Up from 3.4% in May but still below 4.1% in February, and 4.4% in January.
Unadjusted U-6 Unemployment- 7.5% Up from 6.7% in May. It was 7.5% in March, 7.7% in February and 8.8% in January.
Unadjusted Employment (Establishment Survey)- 152.307 million up from 151.600 Million in May and 148.295 million in January.
Labor Force Participation Rate- 62.9% up from 62.8% in April and May down from 63.0% in March and from the peak of 63.2% in February.

Current Seasonally Adjusted U-3 levels are still below the 3.8% lows of 2000. Prior to that we have to go all the way back to 1969 to see better unemployment levels than we have currently. If we break below 3.4% we have to go all the way back to 1953 to find lower levels and remember that was during the boom that followed WWII with a massive loss of the workforce due to the war so we probably won’t see levels that low again.

Best Side Hustles of 2019

July 2, 2019 by Tim McMahon

Changing careers is a risky business. But with unemployment rates at the lowest levels since 1969 finding a new job should be easier. However, if you’d like a little bit of insurance against the unexpected you might want to pick up a little “side hustle” cash to tide you through the transition. Or perhaps you are a stay at home mom and would like to pick up some extra cash. Here are some tips so you can make money from home.

Do Surveys

You may be wondering, why would you want to do something so completely boring and low-paying? However, not all surveys pay ridiculously low rates. Some can pay as much as $75. Look up good survey platforms and keep an eye out for surveys that match your experience and interests.

Play or Create Games

Believe it or not, this is a good way to make money. You can work with user Testing, which pays people to test out games and record their thoughts. That is a pretty exciting new way to make some money. You can make money and have fun while still feeling like a hardworking person.

May Unemployment Still Low

June 8, 2019 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly unemployment survey results for May on June 7^th. Although Unemployment is still at record lows job creation is less than expected.

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

The U.S. economy created 75,000 jobs in May and the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate held steady at 3.6 percent. However, economists projected a 175,000 jobs gain and instead only got 75,000 so they were disappointed but that didn’t stop the stock market with the DOW gaining over 1% in a single day.

According to the BLS Commissioner’s report for this month:

“ Nonfarm payroll employment edged up in May (+75,000), and the unemployment rate remained at 3.6 percent.
Employment continued to trend up in professional and business services and in health care…
In May, 4.4 million people were working part time for economic reasons (also referred to as involuntary part-time workers),
down by 299,000 from the previous month and by 565,000 over the year.”

Key factors in the report were:
Employment in professional and business services increased by 33,000…
Health Care employment rose by 16,000…
Construction employment increased by 4,000…
Seasonally Adjusted U-3 Unemployment remains at its lowest rate since December 1969.

Of course the Commissioner is talking about “Seasonally Adjusted” jobs. In unadjusted terms April had 150.942 million jobs and May had 151.629 million for an actual increase of 687,000 jobs.

For more info see our Current Unemployment Chart and Current U.S. Employment Chart commentary:

Key May Employment and Unemployment Numbers

Adjusted U-3 Unemployment- 3.6% unchanged from April
Unadjusted U-3 Unemployment- 3.4% up from 3.3% in April but down from 3.9% in March and 4.1% in February, and 4.4% in January.
Unadjusted U-6 Unemployment- 6.7% down from 6.9% in April and 7.5% in March, 7.7% in February and 8.8% in January.
Unadjusted Employment (Establishment Survey)- 151.629 million up from 150.988 million in April, 149.862 million in March, 149.143 million in February and 148.295 million in January.
Labor Force Participation Rate- 62.8% unchanged from April.

Current Seasonally Adjusted U-3 levels are below the 3.8% lows of 2000. Prior to that we have to go all the way back to 1969 to see better unemployment levels than we have currently. If we break below 3.4% we have to go all the way back to 1953 to find lower levels and remember that was during the boom that followed WWII with a massive loss of the workforce due to the war so we probably won’t see levels that low again.

Finding Fulfillment in Your Career

June 3, 2019 by Tim McMahon

The “Great Recession” of 2008 put the retirement plans of many seniors on hold which resulted in fewer opportunities for millennials. But now, more than 10 years later, many of those seniors are thinking about retirement once again. So that should start creating opportunities for younger people. If you want a career that helps you grow, you need to know yourself. This includes understanding what your values are and assessing future goals. Here are some ways to find a career that will give you opportunities for growth.

Volunteer

When we get caught up in making enough to survive or in making more money we can lose sight of what is truly important. You may feel frustrated from not being able to earn enough money to live off of or because life is meaningless. Volunteering can lead to a paying job, teach valuable skills and impress employers. Maybe you’d like to help animals, advocate for the environment or teach children who live in poverty. You may also want to work for a company that donates to charity or encourages employees to volunteer. There are also non-profit organizations that hire people so you have the opportunity to help others while [Read more…] about Finding Fulfillment in Your Career

Could Landscape Architecture Be the Career for You?

May 28, 2019 by Tim McMahon

Landscaping is more than glorified lawn care. It is an artistic occupation that balances beauty with function in a home’s outside property area. This can range from a small section of land that can be cultivated into a garden, to a large yard in the front, side, or back of a home. With numerous styles to offer, landscaping is an exciting career that provides opportunities for creative design and purposeful lawn management. Here are four reasons you may want to consider this career.

Landscaping Exercises the Imagination

While some people may consider physical labor to be mind-numbing or boring, the opposite is closer to the truth. Viewing natural resources like land, water, and woodlands as the tools of an artist, and the lawn or garden as the expectant canvas, a landscaper can unleash creativity to design stylistic elements that fulfill the homeowner’s style preferences. From elegant to fun-loving, there are countless lawn themes to be developed and implemented that will suit anyone’s taste.

Landscape Architects

If you want a career that is high tech but gets you out of the office part of the time you might enjoy being a landscape architect. It involves creativity, computer design work and some onsite activity so you get the best of both worlds.

Meaningful Outdoor Work Enriches Body and Soul

Working in fresh air and sunshine, surrounded by grass, trees, shrubs, and flowers, a landscaper’s work often [Read more…] about Could Landscape Architecture Be the Career for You?