employment

April Unemployment Report “Disappointing”

May 10, 2021 by Tim McMahon

Highlights from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) employment / unemployment report for April released on May 7^th.

Unadjusted U-3 was Down from 6.2% to 5.7%
Adjusted U-3 was Up from 6.0% to 6.1%
Unadjusted U-6 was Down from 10.9% to 9.9%
Labor Force Participation rose from 61.5% to 61.7%
Unadjusted Employment rose from 143.309 million to 144.398

MSN classified this unemployment report as “disappointing” and the “greatest test yet of President Biden’s strategy to revive the pandemic economic recovery“.
There has been speculation that expanded unemployment benefits are making people reluctant to renter the labor market since generous unemployment benefits are more than they earn at minimum wage jobs. To counteract this, states like Montana are canceling Federal COVID unemployment benefits in an effort to encourage people to go back to work.

According to CNBC: “Montana opts to end $300 unemployment boost. Other states may, too.”

CNBC KEY POINTS:

Montana Gov. Greg Gianforte, a Republican, is ending participation in federal programs that expanded and raised unemployment benefits on June 27.
The American Rescue Plan, a $1.9 trillion Covid relief bill President Joe Biden signed in March, offered them through Labor Day.
Gianforte is instead offering a $1,200 return-to-work bonus to address a labor shortage. Some experts question the move.

Buried in the middle of the article is this quote:

“Montana is turning down expanded federal benefits to address a “severe workforce shortage,” Gianforte said. The state’s labor force is 10,000 workers smaller than before the pandemic and its 3.8% unemployment rate is near pre-Covid lows.

So despite the fact that “Some ‘experts’ question the move” unemployment levels are not “disappointing” in Montana at least, in fact, quite the opposite… they are having trouble finding workers.

March Unemployment Shows a Slight Improvement

April 3, 2021 by Tim McMahon

Highlights from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) employment / unemployment report for March released on April 2^nd.

Unadjusted U-3 was Down from 6.6% to 6.2%
Adjusted U-3 was Down from 6.2% to 6.0%
Unadjusted U-6 was Down from 11.6% to 10.9%
Labor Force Participation rose from 61.4% to 61.5%
Unadjusted Employment rose from 142.077 million to 143.400 million

February Employment Shows Improvement in Leisure and Hospitality

March 6, 2021 by Tim McMahon

Highlights from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) employment / unemployment report for February released on March 5^th.

Unadjusted U-3 was Down from 6.8% to 6.6%
Adjusted U-3 was Down from 6.3% to 6.2%
Unadjusted U-6 was Down from 12.0% to 11.6%
Labor Force Participation held steady at 61.4%
Unadjusted Employment rose from 140.948 million to 141.926 million

Unadjusted Employment Down Slightly in December

January 9, 2021 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for December on January 8^th.

Unadjusted U-3 was Up from 6.4% to 6.5%
Adjusted U-3 was unchanged at 6.7%
Unadjusted U-6 was unchanged at 11.6%
Labor Force Participation was unchanged at 61.5%
Unadjusted Employment Down from 144.105 million to 143.777 million

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Nonfarm payroll employment declined by 140,000 in December, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.7 percent. The decline in payroll employment reflects the recent rise in the number of coronavirus (COVID-19) cases and increased efforts to contain the pandemic. In December, job losses in leisure and hospitality and in private education were partially offset by gains elsewhere, particularly in professional and business services, retail trade, and construction.“

Of course, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs” from the “Current Population Survey (CPS)” rather than looking at the results reported by actual companies in their “Current Employment Statistics survey (CES)”

Looking at the CES report we see…
Originally the BLS reported 144.005 million jobs for November, this month they adjusted that to 144.105 million.
So currently they are saying 143.777 million jobs for December and 144.105 million for November.
which is actually a decrease of 228,000 jobs based on their original estimates.

Employment Increased by 1/2 Million in November

December 5, 2020 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for November on December 4^th.

Unadjusted U-3 was Down from 6.6% to 6.4%
Adjusted U-3 was Down from 6.9% to 6.7%
Unadjusted U-6 was unchanged at 11.6%
Labor Force Participation fell from 61.7% to 61.5%
Unadjusted Employment up from 143.488 million to 144.005 million

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 245,000 in November, and the unemployment rate edged down to 6.7 percent. These improvements reflect the continued resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed due to the coronavirus (COVID- 19) pandemic and efforts to contain it. However, the pace of improvement in the labor market has moderated in recent months.”

But looking at the CES report we see…
Originally the BLS reported 143.459 million jobs for October, this month they only adjusted that slightly.
So currently they are saying 143.488 million jobs for October and 144.005 million for November.
which is actually an increase of 546,000 jobs based on their original estimates.

September Employment Up 1.25 Million not 661,000

October 3, 2020 by Tim McMahon

Employment Increased by 1.25 Million in September

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for September on October 2nd.

Unadjusted U-3 was Down from 8.5% to 7.7%!
Adjusted U-3 was Down from 8.4% to 7.9%!
Unadjusted U-6 was Down from 14.3% to 12.4%!
Labor Force Participation fell from 61.7% to 61.4%.
Unadjusted Employment up from 140.718 million to 141.855 million.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 661,000 in September, and the unemployment rate fell to 7.9 percent. These improvements reflect the continued resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts to contain it.

In September, employment continued to increase in several industries, with the largest gains in leisure and hospitality, in retail trade, in health care and social assistance, and in professional and business services. By contrast, employment declined in government, mainly in state and local government education.”

Of course, he is talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs” from the “Current Population Survey (CPS)” rather than looking at the results reported by actual companies in their “Current Employment Statistics survey (CES)”

But looking at the CES report we see…
Originally the BLS reported 140.598 million jobs for August, they added 120,000 jobs since that estimate.
So currently they are saying 140.718 million jobs for August and 141.855 million jobs for September which is actually an increase of 1,257,000 jobs based on their original estimates.

Latino Unemployment Lower than Asian Unemployment for First Time

September 5, 2020 by Tim McMahon

Employment Increased by 1.5 Million in August

Latino unemployment is lower than Asian unemployment for the first time since the BLS began tracking Asian unemployment separately.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for August on September 4th.

Unadjusted U-3 was Down from 10.5% to 8.5%!
Adjusted U-3 was Down from 10.2% to 8.4%!
Unadjusted U-6 was Down from 16.8% to 14.3%!
Labor Force Participation rose from 61.4% to 61.7%.
Unadjusted Employment up from 139.063 to 140.598 million.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 1.4 million in August, and the unemployment rate declined by 1.8 percentage points to 8.4 percent. These improvements reflect the continued resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts to contain it.
In August, employment rose in several major industry sectors. A gain in government largely reflected the hiring of temporary workers for the 2020 Census. Notable job gains also occurred in retail trade, in professional and business services, in leisure and hospitality, and in education and health services.”

Looking at the CES report we see…
Originally the BLS reported 139.100 million jobs for July, they subtracted 37,000 jobs from that estimate.
So currently they are saying 139.063 million jobs for July and 140.598 million jobs for August which is an increase of 1,535,000 jobs based on their updated estimates.

4 Ways a Criminal Record Can Affect Your Employment

August 27, 2020 by Tim McMahon

A criminal record can severely impact a person’s employment prospects. In time, you can leave your past behind, but while job searching, a criminal record may have a detrimental effect on your ability to get the job you want. In the UK and Australia most convictions are considered ‘spent’ after 4 years, and you should not be required to divulge your criminal record to an employer. However, that is not the case in the U.S.

Restricted Job Pool

Having a criminal background may prevent you from being considered for certain types of employment. Depending on the nature of your criminal conviction and the work that you are applying for, you might not be able to obtain a job in a security position, in education, or in certain kinds of medical jobs. Many employers require a background check, and someone with a criminal record might not be interviewed for a job in these occupations. You might have to accept an entry-level position and work your way up the ladder to better jobs if employers are aware of your criminal past. [Read more…] about 4 Ways a Criminal Record Can Affect Your Employment

Employment Up by a Half-Million in a Typically Bad Month

August 8, 2020 by Tim McMahon

Typically July is one of the worst months for employment second only to January. But this obviously isn’t a typical year.

More than a Half-Million People Return to Work in July as COVID restrictions relax.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for July on August 7^th.

Unadjusted U-3 was Down from 11.2% to 10.5%!
Adjusted U-3 was Down from 11.1% to 10.2%!
Unadjusted U-6 was Down from 18.3% to 16.8%!
Labor Force Participation fell from 61.5% to 61.4%.
Unadjusted Employment up from 138.509 to 139.100 million.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Non-farm payroll employment increased by 1.8 million in July, and the unemployment rate declined by 0.9 percentage point to 10.2 percent. These improvements reflect the continued resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed due to the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts to contain it. In July, employment rose in several major industries, with the largest gains in leisure and hospitality, government, retail trade, professional and business services, other services, and health care.”

“The rate of recovery in the labor market slowed in July, as job growth over the month was less than half that for June. As of July, total non-farm employment is 12.9 million, or 8.4 percent, lower than in February, before the pandemic crisis unfolded in many parts of the United States. Similarly, although unemployment continued to fall in July, the unemployment rate and the number of unemployed people are up by 6.7 percentage points and 10.6 million, respectively, since February.”

Looking at the CES report we see…
Originally the BLS reported 138.513 million jobs for June, they subtracted 4,000 jobs from that estimate.
So currently they are saying 138.509 million jobs for June and 139.100 million jobs for July which is an increase of 591,000 jobs based on their updated estimates.

Over 5 Million More Jobs in June

July 2, 2020 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for June on July 2^nd.

More than 5 million People Return to Work in June as COVID restrictions relax.

Unadjusted U-3 was Down from 13.0% to 11.2%!
Adjusted U-3 was Down from 13.3% to 11.1%!
Unadjusted U-6 was Down from 20.7% to 18.3%!
Labor Force Participation rose from 60.8% to 61.5%.
Unadjusted Employment up by approx. 5.1 million jobs.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 4.8 million in June, and the unemployment rate declined by 2.2 percentage points to 11.1 percent. These improvements reflect the continued resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed in March and April due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts to contain it.
In June, employment continued to rise in several major industry sectors, with the largest gain in leisure and hospitality. Notable gains also occurred in retail trade, education and health services, other services, manufacturing, and professional and business services.”

Of course, he is talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs” from the “Current Population Survey (CPS)”
rather than looking at the results reported by actual companies in their “Current Employment Statistics survey (CES)”

But looking at the CES report we see…
Originally the BLS reported 133.342 million jobs for May and then in June, they added 68,000 jobs to that estimate.
So currently they are saying 133.410 million jobs for May and 138.513 million jobs for June which is actually an increase of 5.171 million jobs compared to what they originally reported last month or 5.103 million increase based on their updated estimates.