employment

February Unemployment Flat

March 5, 2016 by Tim McMahon

February Unemployment Rate (Seasonally Adjusted)

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their employment data for February on Friday March 4^th 2016. The commonly used seasonally adjusted U-3 Unemployment Rate was 4.9% identical to January. The BLS promotes the Seasonally Adjusted U-3 Unemployment Rate as the primary measure of unemployment. But often when we look at the adjusted Unemployment rate it is moving in the opposite direction as the unadjusted Unemployment rate. For more information see our Seasonally Adjusted vs. Unadjusted Unemployment Rate Chart.

Unadjusted Unemployment Rate and Actual Number Employed

The Un-Adjusted Unemployment Rate was down slightly from 5.3% in January to 5.2% in February. As far as actual Employment, the number of Unadjusted jobs reported for February was 142.005 million up from 141.155 million in January. [Read more…] about February Unemployment Flat

BLS Releases October Employment Figures

November 6, 2015 by Tim McMahon

Current Unemployment Rate Chart

According to the latest U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data release on November 6th the current “Seasonally Adjusted” Unemployment Rate for October is 5.0% down from September’s 5.1% which was down significantly from last October’s 5.8%. The “Unadjusted” rate is 4.8% down from 5.6% in July and much lower than January’s 6.1%. See: Current Chart

According to the BLS, the U-6 Unemployment Rate for October was 9.5%. U-6 unemployment includes short-term discouraged workers who have given up looking for work because they feel there is no work available for them.

However, since 2010, Gallup (the survey/Pollsters) have been doing their own employment survey using basically the same parameters as the BLS and they conclude that the current U-6 (which they call the “UnderEmployment Rate) is actually 13.8% down from 14.1% in September.

According to John William’s Shadowstats the government began underestimating unemployment back in 1994 when they changed the way unemployment was calculated since “long-term discouraged workers were defined out of official existence”. The new U-6 numbers only include short-term discouraged workers. The following chart shows their calculations for Unemployment based on their estimates of what it would be if unemployment was calculated the pre-1994 way.

Current Employment Data

According to the current Bureau of Labor Statistics data, the employment situation for the month of October 2015 was as follows: The number of Unadjusted jobs reported for October 2015 was 143.739 million. That was up from June’s previous peak of 142.836 million.

For more information see: Current Employment Data

Current Employment vs Unemployment Chart

When looking at employment vs. unemployment you would think that they would simply be the inverse of each other. Flip one over and you have the other. But the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) actually uses two entirely different surveys to calculate them. So by comparing them we can spot irregularities. See Employment vs. Unemployment for more information.

Historical Employment Data

In this chart we can see the historical employment figures from 1939 through the present. But in addition to the number of jobs we can also see the recessions shaded blue.

See: Historical Employment Levels for more information.

The misery index combines two factors that can make life difficult for people i.e. unemployment and inflation. High levels of price inflation (rapidly rising prices) will cause households to have difficulty affording the basic necessities while high unemployment will leave a high percentage of households without any income at all.

See: InflationData’s Misery Index.

Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate

The U-3 Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate is the standard unemployment rate that the government prefers to use since it presents a much rosier picture than the U-6. Go here if you would like to see the “Unemployment Rate” in table form.

Unadjusted vs. Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate

Although the Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate is often quoted by the main stream media (MSM) people often wonder how much fudging goes on in the adjustment process. In this chart you can see how the Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate compares with the Unadjusted rate.

Although it doesn’t appear that there is much “fudging” going on with the Seasonal adjustments that doesn’t mean the numbers are without problems. See Is the Government Fudging the Unemployment numbers for some alternative ways to get a better picture of the employment situation.

See Also:

What is U-6 Unemployment for more information about the different definitions of unemployment.
Current U-6 Unemployment Rate
What is the Real Unemployment Rate?

August Unemployment Down

September 4, 2015 by Tim McMahon

The BLS issued their “preliminary estimates” for the employment situation for the month of August 2015. The Commissioner’s report regarding the Seasonally Adjusted numbers says, “Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 173,000 in August, and the unemployment rate edged down to 5.1 percent. Employment rose in health care and social assistance and in financial activities, while manufacturing and mining employment declined.”

The full report of unadjusted numbers states that there were 142.126 Million jobs in August compared to 141.794 million jobs in July and 142.868 million jobs in June.

See Current Employment Commentary for more information.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) also released the newest unemployment data for August 2015 today. According to the BLS, the current “Seasonally Adjusted” Unemployment Rate for July is 5.1% down from July’s 5.3%. The BLS reported the “Unadjusted” Unemployment Rate is 5.2% which is lower than July’s 5.6% . See Current Unemployment Chart for more information.

In our chart of employment vs. unemployment we compare them and although you would expect that employment and unemployment are simply the inverse of each other (i.e flip one over and you have the other) actually there are several anomalies in the data. Because the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) uses two separate surveys to calculate the data it helps us see [Read more…] about August Unemployment Down

May Unemployment Data

June 5, 2015 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the newest unemployment data for May 2015 on Friday June 5^th. According to the BLS, the current “Seasonally Adjusted” Unemployment Rate for May is 5.5% up from April’s 5.4%. The BLS reported the “Unadjusted” Unemployment Rate is 5.3% which is lower than October’s unadjusted 5.5% and January’s 6.1% but up from April’s 5.1%. See Current Unemployment Chart for more information.

The BLS “preliminary estimates” for the employment situation for the month of May 2015 include 142.420 million jobs reported for May 2015. That was up 970,000 from April. But at the same time they revised the numbers for April down by 12,000. See Current Employment Commentary for more information.

BLS Releases Unemployment Rates for April

May 9, 2015 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Employment and Unemployment rates for the month of April 2015 on Friday May 8th. The commonly quoted Seasonally Adjusted U-3 Unemployment rate was 5.4% down slightly from 5.5% in both February and March.

The unadjusted U3 was 5.1% while the broader unadjusted U6 [Read more…] about BLS Releases Unemployment Rates for April

100,000 Layoffs and Counting: Is this the New Normal?

March 19, 2015 by Guest Contributor

This time a year ago, the oil industry’s biggest problem was finding a way to deal with the “retirement tsunami” about to crash down on it as older oilfield workers hung up their cork boots to enjoy freedom-55. Now, with oil prices still in the doldrums, many of those same workers are lucky to be hanging onto their jobs, while others have been booted from the payroll as an ugly wave of layoffs takes hold.

One of the worst-affected areas is [Read more…] about 100,000 Layoffs and Counting: Is this the New Normal?

BLS Releases February Unemployment Numbers

March 6, 2015 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the February Unemployment figures on Friday March 6^th. According to the BLS the Current Unemployment Rate (Seasonally adjusted) for February was 5.5% down from 5.7% in January. Along the same lines we see the Unadjusted Unemployment rates fall from 6.1% to 5.8%. However, according to Gallup the Unadjusted Unemployment rate was actually 6.7% and the U-6 unemployment rate was 16.1%.

Unemployment Numbers According to Gallup

	Unadjusted U-3	Unadjusted U-6
BLS	5.8%	11.4%
Gallup	6.7%	16.1%
Difference	0.9%	4.7%

Once again the BLS numbers are quite a bit different than the [Read more…] about BLS Releases February Unemployment Numbers

November Unemployment Rate Flat

December 8, 2014 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the November Unemployment figures on December 5^th. The Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate was 5.8% the same as the October. The Unadjusted Unemployment rate was also flat at 5.5% for November.

Once again the BLS numbers are quite a bit different than the independently generated Gallup numbers. This is no surprise, based on the long-term comparison between the BLS numbers and the Gallup numbers the BLS numbers consistently present a rosier picture than the Gallup numbers do.

According to surveys by [Read more…] about November Unemployment Rate Flat

October Unemployment Figures

November 8, 2014 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the October Unemployment figures on November 7^th. The Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate was 5.8% down from 5.9% in September. The Unadjusted Unemployment rate was also down from 5.7% in September to 5.5% in October but traditionally October has one of the highest employment (lowest unemployment) levels of the year.

For July and August the BLS numbers were surprisingly close to the Gallup numbers but it appears that the period of sanity has ended. In September the BLS numbers went down while the Gallup numbers went up. Although both sets of numbers went down in October the gap between them is still big enough to drive a truck through.

Gallup says the unadjusted Unemployment rate is 6.2% while the BLS says it is only 5.5% for a 0.7% difference. That is a 12.7% margin of error. Notice the major divergence at the end of the chart. [Read more…] about October Unemployment Figures

BLS Releases July Unemployment: 6.2% Up from 6.1% in June

August 1, 2014 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the July Unemployment figures on August 1st. The Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate was 6.2% up from 6.1% in June. The Unadjusted Unemployment rate was also up from 6.3% in June to 6.5% July. Of course the spin-doctors at the BLS said it was “virtually unchanged”.

In a surprising turn of events, the unadjusted BLS numbers actually agree with the Gallup numbers with the rare occurrence that the BLS numbers are actually higher than the Gallup numbers for the first time in 17 months.

Of course, we shouldn’t get too excited because the “adjusted numbers” are still a bit on the low side and the smoke and mirrors coming out of the BLS have simply shifted to the Employment numbers.

Employment Numbers

According to the commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly report, “Total non-farm payroll employment increased by 209,000 in July, the same as its average monthly gain over the prior 12 months. In July, employment grew in professional and business services, manufacturing, retail trade, and construction.”

So we might begin to wonder if Employment went up, how did unemployment also go up? Of course, the [Read more…] about BLS Releases July Unemployment: 6.2% Up from 6.1% in June