Tim McMahon, Editor of UnemploymentData.com

My grandfather lived through the Hyperinflation in Weimar, Germany--to say he was an original “gold bug” would be an understatement. I began reading his “hard money” newsletters at the age of 16 and the dividends from gold stocks helped put me through college. I began publishing the Financial Trend Forecaster paper newsletter in 1995 upon the death of James Moore editor of Your Window into the Future and the creator of the Moore Inflation Predictor©. FTF specializes in trends in the stock market, gold, inflation and bonds. In January of 2003, I began publishing InflationData.com to specialize in all forms of information about the nature of Inflation. In 2009, we added Elliott Wave University to help teach you the principles of Elliott Wave analysis. In January 2013, we began publishing OptioMoney. Connect with Tim on Google+.

Unlocking The Value Of A “Career College” Degree In Today’s Economy

May 8, 2024 by Tim McMahon

As the 1960s Bob Dylan song says The Times They are a-changin’. Today an ordinary Bachelor of Arts degree doesn’t carry much weight. But a practical degree from a “Career College” that teaches you real-life skills can be much more valuable.

Navigating the Job Market through Upskilling

In a landscape where job stability is increasingly rare, the significance of education and skill enhancement is more critical than ever. Acquiring new, relevant skills or honing existing ones offers a tangible path to securing stable employment. It’s about making oneself indispensable in roles that are in demand, regardless of economic fluctuations.

Understanding “Career Colleges”

Career colleges, often misunderstood and undervalued, offer a unique value proposition. These programs aim to equip students with highly sought-after practical skills in shorter timeframes than traditional four-year educational institutions provide. These colleges focus on hands-on training and real-world applications, preparing students for specific careers quickly and effectively.

Career colleges offer specialized training in fields that are in high demand, such as cybersecurity, office administration, graphics design, web design, data analytics, and healthcare management. This prepares students for careers in emerging industries and fields.

Career colleges also prioritize job readiness, ensuring that students are prepared to enter the workforce immediately upon graduation. This often includes training in soft skills, resume building, and interview preparation.

April Unemployment- Bad News is Good News?

May 4, 2024 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for April on May 3^rd,2024.

Employment / Unemployment

Seasonally Adjusted U3: 3.9% up from 3.8% in March
Unadjusted U3: 3.5% down from 3.9% in March
Unadjusted U6: 6.9% down from 7.4% in March
Labor Force Participation was 62.7% unchanged
Unadjusted Employment rose from 157.213 million to 158.016 million
Next data release June 7^th 2024

Summary:
Total Employed increased in April, Unadjusted Unemployment was down, but Seasonally adjusted Unemployment increased.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 175,000 in April, and the unemployment rate changed little at 3.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains
occurred in health care, in social assistance, and in transportation and warehousing.

Both the unemployment rate, at 3.9 percent, and the number of unemployed people, at 6.5 million changed little in April. The unemployment rate has remained in a narrow range of 3.7 percent to 3.9 percent since August 2023.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 157.218 million for March which they adjusted slightly to 157.213 million.

They are currently reporting 158.016 million jobs for April which is actually an increase of 798,000 jobs compared to the original numbers or 803,000 based on their new numbers.

The LFPR was unchanged at 62.7%.

Bad News is Good News for the Market

In the perverse stock market of these post-pandemic days, the market is looking for an excuse for the FED to cut interest rates so “Bad News is Good News” for the market. So, with the Adjusted U3 rising, Mr. Market took that as “Bad News” and rallied.

BUT… was it really even bad news? Or was it Fake News?

First of all, it was only the “Adjusted” U3 that increased, the Unadjusted U3 was down from 3.9% to 3.5% and the Unadjusted U6 was down from 7.4% to 6.9%. So, unadjusted unemployment was good news, making it bad news for the market?

Typically we can think of the adjusted rate as a comparison to the average. So let’s look at what has happened in the UNADJUSTED U3 over the last few years.

Unadjusted U3

Date	March	April	Change
2024	3.9%	3.5%	-0.4%
2023	3.6%	3.1%	-0.5%
2022	3.8%	3.3%	-0.5%
2021	6.2%	5.7%	-0.5%

So, what do we see? Over the last few years, the unadjusted U-3 declined -0.5% from March to April so that is the “normal” behavior for March – April. But this year, it only declined -0.4%. So, in perverse Government logic, it increased by +0.1%. Thus, Adjusted U-3 went from 3.8% last month to 3.9% this month. But actual unemployment fell from 3.9% to 3.5% this is a decrease not an increase (just not quite as big a decrease as usual). But Mr. Market was looking for an excuse to rally, so any excuse will do.

As I’ve said many times, January unemployment is the worst and it gets progressively better until summer when all the kids get out of school and the workforce swells making it look like more people are unemployed.

Actually, there are some good reasons for the Seasonal adjustments see Adj vs Unadj. But in this case, looking at the Adjusted numbers compared to last month isn’t going to give you the picture the market was looking for. Looking at the chart below we can see that even at 3.9% unemployment is still in the green, so there is nothing there to convince the FED to start easing.

Current Unemployment Rate Chart

Seasonally Adjusted U3 Unemployment remains above the pre-COVID 2019 cyclical lows of 3.5%, as well as above the lows made early in 2023. But have retreated away from the “yellow zone.”

7 Skills You Need When Starting a Roofing Business

April 25, 2024 by Tim McMahon

Starting your own roofing business can be an exciting and rewarding venture. However, in order to succeed in this competitive industry, there are certain skills that every roofer should possess. From technical expertise to business acumen, having the right skills can make all the difference in building a successful roofing business. In this article, we will discuss 7 essential skills that every roofer should have when starting their own business.

1. Technical Skills

As a roofer, it is important to have a strong foundation of technical knowledge and skills. This includes understanding different types of roofing materials, proper installation techniques, and safety protocols. Having solid technical skills will not only ensure the quality of your work but also help you build a positive reputation in the industry.

2. Communication Skills

Effective communication is key in any business, including roofing. Whether you are dealing with clients, suppliers, or employees, being able to clearly convey information and listen actively is crucial for success. Good communication skills can help you build strong relationships with customers and stakeholders, leading to repeat business and referrals. [Read more…] about 7 Skills You Need When Starting a Roofing Business

March 2024 Employment Higher Than Expected

April 6, 2024 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for March on April 5^th,2024.

Employment / Unemployment

Seasonally Adjusted U3: 3.8% down from 3.9% in February
Unadjusted U3: 3.9% down from 4.2% in February
Unadjusted U6: 7.4% down from 7.8% in February
Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.7% up from 62.5%
Employment: 157.218 million up from 156.559 million
Next data release May 3^rd 2024

Summary:
Total Employed increased in March, Labor Force Participation was up and Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment was down. Overall, an encouraging report. The market took this as a positive sign and rallied. The one concerning area is the continued increase in government employees as a percentage of overall employees.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 303,000 in March, and the unemployment rate changed little at 3.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, government, and construction…”

“Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for Blacks (6.4 percent) increased in March, while the rates for Asians (2.5 percent) and Hispanics (4.5 percent) decreased. The
jobless rates for adult men (3.3 percent), adult women (3.6 percent), teenagers (12.6 percent), and Whites (3.4 percent) showed little or no change over the month…”

“The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more), at 1.2 million, was little changed in March. The long-term unemployed accounted for 19.5 percent of all unemployed people. Both the labor force participation rate, at 62.7 percent, and the employment-population ratio, at 60.3 percent, were little changed in March. These measures showed little change over the year.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 156.555 million for February which they adjusted to 156.559 million (for a gain of 4,000 jobs). They are currently reporting 157.218 million jobs for March which is actually a gain of 663,000 jobs compared to their original numbers. But many of these jobs came from government. Theoretically, the government could make the unemployment numbers continue to look good by simply hiring all the unemployed workers.

Government Employment

As indicated above, Government Employment is rising rapidly sucking up available employees and keeping the unemployment rate low.

If we compare the above chart with the total Private Employment we can see that government employment is rising at a steeper rate than private employment. Initially, after COVID, private employment resumed sharply but then it leveled off some. But the government employment increase hasn’t leveled off.

Total government employment is 23.270 million compared to a total private employment of 134.863 million.

Current Unemployment Rate Chart

Seasonally Adjusted U3 Unemployment remains above the pre-COVID 2019 cyclical lows of 3.5%, as well as above the lows made early in 2023. But have retreated away from the “yellow zone.”

Exploring the Benefits of a Career in Truck Driving

April 3, 2024 by Tim McMahon

Are you looking for a career that offers stability, flexibility, and the opportunity for growth? If so, a career in truck driving may be the perfect fit for you. In this blog post, we will explore the many benefits of pursuing a career in truck driving and why it may be the right choice for you.

Competitive Salary

One of the biggest benefits of a career in truck driving is the competitive salary. Additionally, many trucking companies offer bonuses, benefits, and other incentives to attract and retain drivers. With the potential for overtime pay and opportunities for advancement, a career in truck driving can provide a lucrative income for individuals.

Job Security

Another advantage of a career in truck driving is the job security it offers. With the demand for goods constantly growing, there is a consistent need for truck drivers to transport goods across the country. This means that truck drivers are always in high demand, providing a sense of job security that may not be found in other industries. Additionally, advancements in technology and regulations have made truck driving safer and more efficient, further improving job security for drivers.

Cranes in Construction: A Sky-High Opportunity for Entrepreneurs

March 26, 2024 by Tim McMahon

Several years ago, while living in Virginia, I met a man who retired from owning a crane rental company. He owned a place with a couple hundred acres, and a 4,000 sq. ft. house with a separate multi-car garage to store his car collection. He employed a few grounds-keepers to keep it in park-like condition and occasionally rented the pavilion out for weddings and such. The crane rental business was very good to him. In today’s article we’re going to look at some information about the crane rental business. ~ Tim McMahon, editor

The Crane Rental Business

Entering the construction industry is like digging into a gold mine. With the world’s growing population, the demand for infrastructure is soaring, creating lucrative opportunities for all types of businesses for those willing to take the plunge. One of the most essential, yet undervalued, sectors within the construction boom is crane rental – a vertical that’s not just about lifting heavy loads; it carries the weight of enormous potential for entrepreneurs.

Today, we’ll hoist the facts, balance the logistics, and lay the groundwork for understanding how to leverage crane rental services in the construction industry. Whether you’re a seasoned business owner looking to diversify or a start-up entrepreneur hoping to elevate your enterprise, it’s time to explore the intricacies and perks of this lofty sector.

Understanding the Crane Rental Market

The allure of the crane rental market lies in its steady growth, largely due to the global upsurge in construction activities. This sector’s economic resilience even during downturns is a testament to its stability. However, navigating this space requires a firm grasp of market trends, customer needs, and industry regulations.

Current market trends point to a surge in urban development, the growth of the renewable energy sector, and an increased preference for high-rise structures. This spells out an escalating demand for lifting solutions, positioning rental services at the forefront of the industry’s growth.

Clients in the construction industry often require more than just a crane; they seek end-to-end solutions. From consultation services to the provision of additional equipment and skilled operators, the ability to cater to these varied needs is crucial for success in the crane rental business.

Operating a crane rental business isn’t just about good customer service and efficient equipment; it’s also about adhering to stringent safety and industry regulations. Entrepreneurs must be well-versed in local and national laws that govern crane operations to maintain a competitive edge while ensuring workplace safety is a priority. [Read more…] about Cranes in Construction: A Sky-High Opportunity for Entrepreneurs

February Unemployment Increases

March 9, 2024 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for February on March 8^th,2024.

Employment / Unemployment

Seasonally Adjusted U3- 3.9% up from 3.7% in January
Unadjusted U3- 4.2% up from 4.1% in January
Unadjusted U6- 7.8% down from 8.0% in January
Labor Force Participation Rate 62.5% -unchanged
Employment 156.555 million up from 155.414 million

Summary:
Although employment rose, U3 Unemployment also rose in February in both adjusted and unadjusted rates. Unadjusted U6 fell, but adjusted U6 rose from 7.2% to 7.3%. Labor Force Participation was unchanged.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 275,000 in February, and the unemployment rate increased to 3.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, in government, in food services and drinking places, in social assistance, and in transportation and warehousing…”

“Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult women (3.5 percent) and teenagers (12.5 percent) increased over the month…”

“Among the unemployed, the number of permanent job losers increased by 174,000 to 1.7 million in February.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 155.626 million for January which they adjusted to 155.414 million (for a loss of 212,000 jobs). They are currently reporting 156.555 million jobs for February which is actually a gain of 929,000 jobs compared to their original numbers. But many of these jobs came from government, and social assistance plus food services and drinking places. These are not the type of jobs that build a robust economy. And permanent job losers are increasing.

Current Unemployment Rate Chart

Seasonally Adjusted U3 Unemployment is above the pre-COVID 2019 cyclical lows of 3.5% as well as above the lows made early in 2023. Current levels are nearing the beginning of the “Yellow Zone”.

Why Strategic Brand Marketing Is Crucial for Small Business Success

February 16, 2024 by Tim McMahon

Crafting a brand identity that resonates with your target audience is no small feat, especially in the current marketplace’s cluttered digital landscape. For small business owners, strategic brand marketing is not just about creating a pretty logo or a catchy tagline—it’s a foundational element that can set your business apart, summon customer trust, and pave the way for sustainable growth. In this post, we dive into the vital aspects of strategic brand marketing, detailing its power to elevate small businesses and providing actionable insights that are as applicable to the budding enterprise as they are to the established local gem.

Understanding Strategic Brand Marketing

Branding goes beyond mere aesthetics—effective brand marketing is an intentionally planned, strategically approached methodology. It encompasses every point of contact with a customer, from the name and visual identity to the customer service and the products themselves. Strong brands have a clear purpose, they’re consistent, and they create an emotional connection with their audience.

At its core, strategic brand marketing is the deliberate effort to cultivate a unique identity for your business and then communicate it effectively to your target audience. It’s a blend of art and science, where you carefully design a persona for your company and use various tools and channels to show the world what your business is all about.

Your brand marketing strategy should define your brand’s positioning, personality, promise, and the story behind it. These components form the framework that guides all branding activities.

Want to Go Into Trucking? 5 Things to Know Beforehand

February 16, 2024 by Tim McMahon

The trucking industry is an essential part of our economy, and it requires hard-working individuals to keep it moving. If you’re considering getting into the trucking industry, congratulations! You’re taking your first step toward a rewarding career. However, there are some things that you should know before you dive headfirst into the trucking world. In this article, we’ll be discussing the top things you need to know before getting started in the trucking industry. Let’s get started!

Types of Trucking

There are a variety of different types of truck driving depending on the type of truck, whether it is local or long-haul, and the type of load carried.

According to Indeed:

Flat Bed Drivers earn an average of $60,049/yr. and carry equipment or other machinery that wouldn’t otherwise fit in a trailer.
Less-than-truckload (LTL) drivers handle smaller loads or shipments. They earn an average of $61,613/yr.
Refrigerated freight drivers, or reefer drivers, transport goods that require a specific temperature and earn $61,879/yr.
Over-the-road (OTR) truck drivers deliver larger amounts of goods in bigger trucks, including tractor-trailers and earn an average of $78,113/yr.
Tanker drivers transport gases or liquids, either long or short distances, may require special training and earn $88,918/yr.
Team drivers work with another driver to complete national or even cross-border hauls and earn an average of $105,789/yr.

Other variations include Intermodal Trucking which involves delivering containers that are simply dropped on a flat-bed truck. There is also Hot Shot trucking which involves hauling smaller, more time-sensitive loads within a specific timeframe, and usually to a single customer or location. You can be an “owner-operator” or work for a big or small company. There are also furniture movers, local delivery drivers, and hazardous material haulers, among others. [Read more…] about Want to Go Into Trucking? 5 Things to Know Beforehand

January Employment Declines, Adjusted Unemployment Flat

February 3, 2024 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for January on February 2^nd,2024.

Employment / Unemployment

Adjusted U-3 was 3.7% unchanged since November
Unadjusted U-3 was 4.1% up from 3.5% in December
Unadjusted U-6 was 8.0% Up from 6.7% in November and 7.0% in December
Labor Force Participation was 62.5% unchanged from December but down from 62.8% in November
Unadjusted Employment fell from 158.261 million to 155.626 million

Summary:
Seasonally Adjusted Employment rose but actual employment decreased in January, Labor Force Participation was unchanged, Seasonal Adjustment indicates employment decline is normal for this time of year.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 353,000 in January, and the unemployment rate
remained at 3.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains
occurred in professional and business services, health care, retail trade, and social
assistance. Employment declined in the mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction
industry…”

“In January, the unemployment rate was 3.7 percent for the third month in a row, and
the number of unemployed people was little changed at 6.1 million…”

“The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more), at 1.3 million,
was little changed in January. The long-term unemployed accounted for 20.8 percent of all unemployed people.”

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 158.228 million for December which they adjusted to 158.261 million in January (for a gain of 33,000 jobs). They are currently reporting 155.626 million jobs for January which is actually a loss of -2,602,000 jobs compared to their original numbers. But January typically loses about this many jobs, so the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate stayed the same.

BLS Source

Current Unemployment Rate Chart

Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment is slightly above the pre-COVID 2019 cyclical lows of 3.5% as well as above the lows made early in 2023. Current levels are still within the “Green Zone”.