Tim McMahon, Editor of UnemploymentData.com

My grandfather lived through the Hyperinflation in Weimar, Germany--to say he was an original “gold bug” would be an understatement. I began reading his “hard money” newsletters at the age of 16 and the dividends from gold stocks helped put me through college. I began publishing the Financial Trend Forecaster paper newsletter in 1995 upon the death of James Moore editor of Your Window into the Future and the creator of the Moore Inflation Predictor©. FTF specializes in trends in the stock market, gold, inflation and bonds. In January of 2003, I began publishing InflationData.com to specialize in all forms of information about the nature of Inflation. In 2009, we added Elliott Wave University to help teach you the principles of Elliott Wave analysis. In January 2013, we began publishing OptioMoney. Connect with Tim on Google+.

Gallup Head Says Unemployment Rate is “A Big Lie”

February 6, 2015 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the Unemployment rate for January 2015 today. Adjusted U-3 unemployment rose “insignificantly” from 5.6% to 5.7%. Unadjusted unemployment rose more significantly from 5.4% in December to 6.1% in January. Unadjusted U-6 unemployment i.e. including discouraged workers who have given up looking plus those working part-time but seeking full-time employment jumped from 11.1% in December to 12.0% in January.

But the big news is that Jim Clifton the CEO of Gallup said that unemployment is really closer to 9%. Here’s what he said:

There’s no other way to say this. The official unemployment rate, which cruelly overlooks the suffering of the long-term and often permanently unemployed as well as the depressingly underemployed, amounts to a Big Lie.
[Read more…] about Gallup Head Says Unemployment Rate is “A Big Lie”

Unemployment Down but Fewer People Working?

January 9, 2015 by Tim McMahon

On Friday January 9^th the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the Unemployment Data for December 2014. According to the BLS the Current Unemployment Rate (Seasonally adjusted) for December was 5.6% down from 5.8% in November.

Along the same lines we see the Unadjusted Unemployment rates fall from 5.5% to 5.4% at first that seems to make sense. But if we look at the Current Employment Data we will see a different picture. According to the BLS there were 141,256,000 people employed in December and 141,321,000 employed in November that is a net loss of 65,000 jobs… some of that can be explained by the typical employment peak which ends after Black-Friday. Because employment typically peaks in November the “Seasonally Adjusted” numbers adjust for that and so it is understandable that the Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate could fall while actual employment was falling… but how can unadjusted unemployment fall with fewer people actually working? [Read more…] about Unemployment Down but Fewer People Working?

November Unemployment Rate Flat

December 8, 2014 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the November Unemployment figures on December 5^th. The Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate was 5.8% the same as the October. The Unadjusted Unemployment rate was also flat at 5.5% for November.

Once again the BLS numbers are quite a bit different than the independently generated Gallup numbers. This is no surprise, based on the long-term comparison between the BLS numbers and the Gallup numbers the BLS numbers consistently present a rosier picture than the Gallup numbers do.

According to surveys by [Read more…] about November Unemployment Rate Flat

October Unemployment Figures

November 8, 2014 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the October Unemployment figures on November 7^th. The Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate was 5.8% down from 5.9% in September. The Unadjusted Unemployment rate was also down from 5.7% in September to 5.5% in October but traditionally October has one of the highest employment (lowest unemployment) levels of the year.

For July and August the BLS numbers were surprisingly close to the Gallup numbers but it appears that the period of sanity has ended. In September the BLS numbers went down while the Gallup numbers went up. Although both sets of numbers went down in October the gap between them is still big enough to drive a truck through.

Gallup says the unadjusted Unemployment rate is 6.2% while the BLS says it is only 5.5% for a 0.7% difference. That is a 12.7% margin of error. Notice the major divergence at the end of the chart. [Read more…] about October Unemployment Figures

Rewiring Your Resume: The Skills You Need to Market Yourself

October 23, 2014 by Tim McMahon

Writing a successful resume requires descriptions of the applicable skills you possess, supported by clear examples in a work history. Blanketing a resume with a wide skill set is a common mistake many people make when writing their resumes. Most employers look for skills that will aid in performing a job, so it is important to narrow skill sets and work histories to reflect experience with the job you are applying for.

Applicable Skills
Employers are not interested in every skill you can bring to the table. Specific, marketable, skills are often preferred to task-based talents. In addition, most employers will not be interested in long, comprehensive lists. Instead, employers will search for skills they think will enhance a potential employee’s ability to successfully do their job.
For example, [Read more…] about Rewiring Your Resume: The Skills You Need to Market Yourself

Reconsidering Your Resume: Five Ways to Sell Yourself Better

October 14, 2014 by Tim McMahon

When you are trying to construct a good resume, you need to make sure you are using your resume to speak to your skills and attributes and sell yourself to a new employer. The five ideas below are all designed to make your resume look better, and you need to be certain your resume features as many of these ideas as possible. Don’t be afraid to stand out.

One Page
It is definitely better to limit your resume to one page long. Today’s world is simply too busy for you to send out resumes that are several pages. When you getting ready to e-mail your resume, you need to make sure they are confined to one page. Unless you are applying for a high level management position, human resources people won’t [Read more…] about Reconsidering Your Resume: Five Ways to Sell Yourself Better

September BLS Unemployment Numbers Differ Vastly from Gallup

October 3, 2014 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the September Unemployment figures on October 3rd. The Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate was 5.9% down from 6.2% in August. The Unadjusted Unemployment rate was also down from 6.3% in August to 5.7% in September.

For the last couple of months the BLS numbers have been surprisingly close to the Gallup numbers but it appears that the period of sanity has ended. This month the BLS numbers went down while the Gallup numbers went up. So Gallup says the unadjusted Unemployment rate is 6.6% while the BLS says it is only 5.7% for a whopping 0.9% difference. That is a 15.8% margin of error. Notice the major divergence at the end of the chart. [Read more…] about September BLS Unemployment Numbers Differ Vastly from Gallup

BLS Releases August Unemployment: 6.1% Down from 6.2% in July

September 6, 2014 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the August Unemployment figures on September 5th. The Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate was 6.2% up from 6.1% in June. The Unadjusted Unemployment rate was also down from 6.5% in July to 6.3% in August.

In another rare occurrence, the BLS seasonally adjusted numbers are actually identical to the Gallup numbers for the first time since September 2011. In the interim the BLS has been lower than the Gallup numbers 24 times and Gallup has been lower 9 times. The average difference when the BLS is lower is 0.6% but when Gallup is lower the average has only been 0.3%. So in addition to BLS being lower more often it is also lower by more indicating some sort of bias to the downside. But perhaps the BLS is mending their ways since last month and this month have resulted in the BLS and Gallup being well within a normal margin of error. [Read more…] about BLS Releases August Unemployment: 6.1% Down from 6.2% in July

BLS Releases July Unemployment: 6.2% Up from 6.1% in June

August 1, 2014 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the July Unemployment figures on August 1st. The Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate was 6.2% up from 6.1% in June. The Unadjusted Unemployment rate was also up from 6.3% in June to 6.5% July. Of course the spin-doctors at the BLS said it was “virtually unchanged”.

In a surprising turn of events, the unadjusted BLS numbers actually agree with the Gallup numbers with the rare occurrence that the BLS numbers are actually higher than the Gallup numbers for the first time in 17 months.

Of course, we shouldn’t get too excited because the “adjusted numbers” are still a bit on the low side and the smoke and mirrors coming out of the BLS have simply shifted to the Employment numbers.

Employment Numbers

According to the commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly report, “Total non-farm payroll employment increased by 209,000 in July, the same as its average monthly gain over the prior 12 months. In July, employment grew in professional and business services, manufacturing, retail trade, and construction.”

So we might begin to wonder if Employment went up, how did unemployment also go up? Of course, the [Read more…] about BLS Releases July Unemployment: 6.2% Up from 6.1% in June

Wages Flat Since Last Year but Depend Upon Education

July 26, 2014 by Tim McMahon

Median Salaries Unchanged from Year Ago

According to the current Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS ) news release on weekly earnings for the second quarter of 2014, the median weekly earnings for a full-time worker was $780 virtually unchanged from year ago levels. The median wage indicates that the same number of people earned more than $780 as earned less working a full-time job.

The data was collected as part of the Current Population Survey, a nationwide sample survey of households conducted by the BLS.

Wages By Education

Wages vary based on a variety of factors including experience but education played a major factor. Full-time workers age 25 and over without a high school diploma had median weekly earnings of only $492. Assuming an average 40 hour work week that would be an average of $12.30/hr. High school graduates with no college earned an average of $666 per week, those with a Bachelors Degree earned an average of $1098 while those with advanced degrees earned an average of $1,377. [Read more…] about Wages Flat Since Last Year but Depend Upon Education