Tim McMahon, Editor of UnemploymentData.com

My grandfather lived through the Hyperinflation in Weimar, Germany--to say he was an original “gold bug” would be an understatement. I began reading his “hard money” newsletters at the age of 16 and the dividends from gold stocks helped put me through college. I began publishing the Financial Trend Forecaster paper newsletter in 1995 upon the death of James Moore editor of Your Window into the Future and the creator of the Moore Inflation Predictor©. FTF specializes in trends in the stock market, gold, inflation and bonds. In January of 2003, I began publishing InflationData.com to specialize in all forms of information about the nature of Inflation. In 2009, we added Elliott Wave University to help teach you the principles of Elliott Wave analysis. In January 2013, we began publishing OptioMoney. Connect with Tim on Google+.

October 2024 Employment / Unemployment Report

November 2, 2024 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for October on November 1^st,2024.

Employment / Unemployment

Seasonally Adjusted U3- 4.1% Unchanged from September
Unadjusted U3- 3.9% Unchanged from September
Unadjusted U6- 7.3% Unchanged from September
Labor Force Participation Rate 62.6% down from September
Employment 160.007 million up from 159.181 million
Next data release December 6^th, 2024

Summary:
Total Employed increased very slightly in October, Unadjusted Unemployment was unchanged, Seasonally adjusted Unemployment was unchanged. Virtually everything was unchanged except LFPR fell by 0.1%.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment was essentially unchanged in October (+12,000), and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in health care and government. Temporary help services lost jobs. Employment declined in manufacturing due to strike activity…

The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1 percent in October, and the number of unemployed people was little changed at 7.0 million. These measures are higher than a year earlier, when the jobless rate was 3.8 percent, and the number of unemployed people was 6.4 million.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

So, for the month little changed, but on a year-over-year basis the economy is worse with more unemployed people.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 159.177 million for September
which they adjusted slightly to 159.181 million in November.

They are currently reporting 160.007 million jobs for October which is actually an increase of 83,000 jobs over their initial numbers or 82,600 over their revised numbers. The LFPR was down slightly from 62.7% to 62.6%.

Bad News for the Market?

The stock market initially rallied but lost steam mid-day and ended up down for the day. As we said last month, “the market doesn’t like uncertainty so it is waiting for election results before making any major moves. Other uncertainty revolves around the Middle-East and Russia.” Despite a rally in-between, the NYSE is roughly at the same place it was on August 30^th.

Current Unemployment Rate Chart

As we can see from the chart below, although still low, unemployment is above pre-COVID lows of 2019 and 0.7% above the January and April lows of 2023.

Before the COVID-19 spike, February 2020’s 3.5% Seasonally Adjusted U-3 unemployment levels were excellent, i.e., just a hair above the 1969 lows of 3.4%. The only break below 3.4% was all the way back in 1953 (during the Korean War). The COVID worldwide spike took unemployment to unprecedented high levels, but then returned to the “excellent” range.

At 4.1% it is no longer “Excellent” but still in the “Very Good” range.

Can We Trust the September Unemployment Numbers?

October 9, 2024 by Tim McMahon

In a recent article published by The Epoch Times, Jeffrey A. Tucker founder of the Brownstone Institute wrote an article examining the BLS’ glowing September 2024 Unemployment report. According to the BLS Unemployment fell significantly in September and the media rejoiced in this report without delving into the actual details.

But as Jeffrey dug deeper, he found some strange anomalies. As we do, he examined both the establishment payroll numbers and compared them to the Household Survey numbers. But Jeffrey also looked at the types of jobs, part-time or full-time, foreign-born or U.S. born, and government vs. private sector jobs. [Read more…] about Can We Trust the September Unemployment Numbers?

September Jobs Report

October 5, 2024 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for September on October 4^th,2024.

Employment / Unemployment

Seasonally Adjusted U3- 4.1% down from 4.2% in August
Unadjusted U3- 3.9% down from 4.4%
Unadjusted U6- 7.3% down from 8.0%
Labor Force Participation Rate 62.7% unchanged
Employment 159.177 million up from 158.717 million
Next data release November 1^st, 2024

Summary:
Total Employed increased in September, Adjusted and Unadjusted Unemployment were both down.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 254,000 in September, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in food services and drinking places, health care, government, social assistance, and construction…

Both the unemployment rate, at 4.1 percent, and the number of unemployed people, at 6.8 million, changed little in September. These measures are higher than a year earlier, when the jobless rate was 3.8 percent, and the number of unemployed people was 6.3 million. “

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 158.650 million for August
which they adjusted slightly to 158.717 million in September.

They are currently reporting 159.177 million jobs for September which is actually an increase of 527,000 jobs based on their original numbers or 46,000 based on their new numbers. The LFPR was unchanged at 62.7%.

Good News for the Market?

The stock market responded slightly favorably with the NYSE up 0.78%. But the market doesn’t like uncertainty so it is waiting for election results before making any major moves. Other uncertainty revolves around the Middle-East and Russia.

Current Unemployment Rate Chart

Seasonally Adjusted U3 Unemployment remains well above the pre-COVID 2019 cyclical lows of 3.5%, and is approaching the yellow zone.

Have Wages Kept Up With Inflation?

September 23, 2024 by Tim McMahon

One of the most important questions regarding your income is whether your wages have kept up with inflation. You might be getting nice yearly raises, but if inflation is growing faster, you are still falling behind. So, in order for your purchasing power to increase or at least stay the same it is important to look at Inflation-Adjusted wages.

If you ask your neighbors, they will almost certainly say that the average wage hasn’t kept up with inflation. And since “bad news sells” even the media tends to try to convince us that the average wage hasn’t kept up with inflation. But what do the actual numbers say?

If we look at the numbers presented by the Federal Reserve CES0500000003 index (Average Hourly Earnings of All Employees) we get the following chart. And it looks pretty good, wages are going up fairly steadily. But is inflation going up faster? We really can’t tell.

Inflation-Adjusted Hourly Wages

So to get the true picture we have to adjust it by the Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) and then we get the following chart: [Read more…] about Have Wages Kept Up With Inflation?

August 2024 Jobs Report

September 7, 2024 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for August on September 6^th,2024.

Employment / Unemployment

Seasonally Adjusted U3- 4.2% down from 4.3% in July
Unadjusted U3- 4.4% down from 4.5% in July
Unadjusted U6- 8.0% down from 8.2% in July
Labor Force Participation Rate 62.7% unchanged
Employment 158.650 million up from 158.387 million
Next data release October 4^th, 2024

Summary:
Total Employed increased in August increased by 205,000 while the Civilian non-institutional population (a relatively narrow definition) increased by 212,000 over the same period so jobs didn’t even keep up with the population.

To make matters worse, jobs decreased by -947,000 in July and then the BLS announced the March 2024 Jobs numbers will be adjusted down by 818,000 in January. So, we can expect the January adjustment report to show all the numbers for 2024 to be pretty much fiction.

But… According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 142,000 in August, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in construction and health care…

Both the unemployment rate, at 4.2 percent, and the number of unemployed people, at 7.1 million, changed little in August. These measures are higher than a year earlier, when the jobless rate was 3.8 percent, and the number of unemployed people was 6.3 million.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 158.445 million for July
which they adjusted down -58,000 to 158.387 million in today’s report .

They are currently reporting 158.650 million jobs for August which is actually an increase of 205,000 jobs based on their originally reported July numbers. But still below the 159.392 million originally reported in June and not that much different than the 158.461 originally reported last November. The LFPR was unchanged from July at 62.7%.

Bad News for the Market?

The stock market peaked on August 30th and has fallen since then and the jobs report didn’t help stem the decline. After the Friday jobs report the NYSE fell another 1.14%. Our NYSE ROC chart created based on August month-end numbers showed a cross above the top line of a long-term channel and we said “The market is definitely at a point of exuberance. We can expect it to correct back down to at least the yellow Mid-Term Support.”

The current drop just brings the NYSE back within the channel, so it still has a long way to go to get to the channel mid-point.

On the geopolitical front, Hamas killed several hostages rather than let them be rescued. So the market still fears a war in the Middle East. The Japanese financial problems seem to have settled down now and the market is anticipating a FED rate cut shortly.

Current Unemployment Rate Chart

Seasonally Adjusted U3 Unemployment is well above the pre-COVID 2019 cyclical lows of 3.5%, but is approaching the yellow zone.

BLS Erases 800,000 Jobs

August 28, 2024 by Tim McMahon

On August 21, 2024, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released a notice that seems to be taking Social Media by storm. In it the BLS stated that after doing their ordinary checking they found that March 2024 data overestimated the number of jobs by 818,000. This is a preliminary to the regular audit that they do every January. So, in this audit they are only checking March as a sample of what is to come.

Back in April when this data was released we published an article entitled March 2024 Employment Higher Than Expected and now we know why. Originally, they said there were 157,218,000 jobs in March up from 156,599,000 putting employment 659,000 jobs above the previous year. But if that number were actually a decrease of -818,000 rather than an increase, it would have meant that jobs were LOWER than the previous year not higher, which would probably have had more impact on markets.

If you have been a long-time subscriber you will know that this isn’t the first time that the BLS has made massive changes to their numbers after the fact. Every month the numbers are different from the originally issued numbers. Sometimes they are slightly different and sometimes they are significantly different. They continue modifying them for three months and then they go back in January and modify them once more. [Read more…] about BLS Erases 800,000 Jobs

July Jobs Report Spooks Stock Market

August 3, 2024 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for July on August 2^nd,2024.

Employment / Unemployment

Seasonally Adjusted U3- 4.3% up from 4.1% in June
Unadjusted U3- 4.5% up from 4.3% in June
Unadjusted U6- 8.2% up from 7.7% in June
Labor Force Participation Rate 62.7% up from 62.6%
Employment 158.445 million down from 159.360 million
Next data release September 6^th, 2024

Summary:
Total Employed decreased in July, adjusted and Unadjusted Unemployment was up.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“The unemployment rate rose to 4.3 percent in July, and nonfarm payroll employment edged up by 114,000, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in health care, in construction, and in transportation and warehousing, while information lost jobs.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 159.392 million for June
which they then adjusted to 159.360 million in August.

They are currently reporting 158.445 million jobs for July which is actually a decrease of 947,000 jobs based on their original numbers. The LFPR was up at 62.7% but the Employment/Population Ratio was down from 60.1% to 60.0%.

Bad News for the Market?

On Wednesday (prior to the Jobs data release on Friday) the stock market reacted bullishly to FED Chairman Powell’s dovish speech with anticipation of a September rate cut. But then markets reversed course on Thursday on preliminary Employment numbers. But what they failed to recognize is that the worst months (highest unemployment) are usually January, June, and July. So a bad July doesn’t really signify much.

Adding to the market’s woes, Intel dropped a bombshell with its earnings report. The company announced plans to slash jobs and suspend dividends after missing earnings targets and delivering a disappointing sales forecast. Intel shares cratered over 25% in early trading, dragging other chip stocks down with it.

In other news, Israel is suspected of killing a Hamas leader inside Iran. So now the market also fears retaliation by Iran causing a war in the Middle East. In addition to these political problems, Japan is creating financial problems for the U.S. by raising interest rates while other countries are lowering them. As you can see from the chart below, Japan has had zero or near-zero interest rates for almost 30 years. For a brief stretch, their rates got all the way up to 3/4 of 1%! (Horror of Horrors). But since 2008 they have been below 1/3rd of 1%.

This has created what is called the “Carry Trade” where people could borrow Yen almost interest-free and invest that money in higher-yielding things like Nvidia or other NASDAQ stocks or even lower-risk things like U.S. Treasury Bills. However, with the Bank of Japan (BOJ) raising rates, the free money is drying up, which creates selling pressure on the NASDAQ.

The NYSE was down -1.79% on Friday after being down -1.16% on Thursday.

Current Unemployment Rate Chart

Seasonally Adjusted U3 Unemployment remains above the pre-COVID 2019 cyclical lows of 3.5%, but is approaching the yellow zone.

Opportunities You Can Find With a CDL License

July 15, 2024 by Tim McMahon

Deciding to obtain a Commercial Driver’s License (CDL) can unlock a variety of career paths in the transportation industry. From long-haul trucking to local delivery, each role offers its own unique set of opportunities and demands. Whether driving across the country or staying within city limits, CDL holders can find fulfilling jobs that suit different lifestyles and preferences. Understanding the different opportunities available with a CDL can help you make an informed decision about which path might be right for you.

Long-Haul Truck Driver

Long-haul truck drivers are essential to the transportation industry, delivering goods across vast distances. These professionals typically drive heavy-duty trucks and spend several days or even weeks on the road giving you the opportunity to see a lot of the country. A key aspect of this career is the ability to navigate various terrains and weather conditions while adhering to strict delivery schedules. Long-haul drivers often experience the independence of solitary travel but must also manage tasks such as logging hours and maintaining their vehicles. Employers often look for reliability, a clean driving record, and the ability to manage extended periods away from home.

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Heavy and Tractor-trailer Truck Drivers earned $54,320 per year or $26.12 per hour in 2023. Heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers usually have a high school diploma and attend a professional truck driving school. They must have a commercial driver’s license (CDL). [Read more…] about Opportunities You Can Find With a CDL License

June Employment Weak

July 6, 2024 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for June on July 5^th,2024.

Employment / Unemployment

Seasonally Adjusted U3- 4.1% up from 4.0% in May
Unadjusted U3- 4.3% up from 3.7% in May
Unadjusted U6- 7.7% up from 7.1% in May
Labor Force Participation Rate 62.6% up from 62.5%
Employment 159.392 million up from 158.845 million
Next data release August 2^nd, 2024

Summary:
Total Employed increased in June, Unadjusted Unemployment was up sharply, but Seasonally adjusted Unemployment increased only slightly.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 206,000 in June, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in government, health care, social assistance, and construction…

Both the unemployment rate, at 4.1 percent, and the number of unemployed people, at 6.8 million, changed little in June. These measures are higher than a year earlier, when the jobless rate was 3.6 percent and the number of unemployed people was 6.0 million.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 158.918 million for May
which they now adjusted to 158.845 million.

They are currently reporting 159.392 million jobs for June which is actually an increase of 474,000 jobs compare to what they first reported or 547,000 compared to their new numbers.

The LFPR was up from 62.5% to 62.6%.

Good News for the Market?

In the perverse stock market of these post-pandemic days, the market is looking for an excuse for the FED to cut interest rates so “Bad News is Good News” for the market.

The news wasn’t bad enough to spark a major rally but after falling initially, at around 10:30 AM the market turned around and rallied for the rest of the day taking it to slightly above the previous day’s close. So basically a giant “nothing burger”.

Current Unemployment Rate Chart

Seasonally Adjusted U3 Unemployment remains above the pre-COVID 2019 cyclical lows of 3.5%, but is approaching the yellow zone.

[Read more…] about June Employment Weak

From Layoff to Lift-Off: Starting Your Own Construction Business

June 25, 2024 by Tim McMahon

The construction business can be very volatile. One day everyone is too busy and the next day people are getting laid off left and right. If you’ve recently experienced a layoff in the construction industry, you may be considering taking your skills and expertise to the next level by starting your own construction business. This transition can be both challenging and rewarding, but with the right skills and information, you can turn this setback into a successful lift-off for your entrepreneurial journey.

Finding Your Niche in the Industry

Before diving headfirst into launching your construction business, it’s crucial to identify and hone in on your niche. Start by reflecting on your skills, experience, and passions within the industry. Do you have a knack for residential construction, excelling in building family homes and multifamily units? Or perhaps your expertise lies in commercial projects, such as office buildings, retail centers, or large-scale renovations. Consider whether you possess specialized knowledge in emerging trends like sustainable and green building practices, or you want to focus on the tried and true, like remodeling and repairs for Senior Citizens. By identifying a niche, you can target a specific market segment, tailor your services to meet particular needs and distinguish yourself from the competition.

Once you’ve pinpointed your niche, conduct thorough market research to understand demand, competition, and potential client needs. Look into industry reports, local construction trends, and potential gaps in the market that your new business could fill. Networking with industry professionals and joining construction trade organizations can also offer valuable insights and opportunities. Ultimately, having a clear niche enables you to develop a focused business strategy, streamline your marketing efforts, and build a reputation as an expert in your chosen field. Remember, carving out your specific place within the construction sector can significantly enhance your chances of success and long-term growth.