jobs

Early Warning Signs of a Weakening Economy in July 2025

August 2, 2025 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for July on August 1^st,2025.

Employment / Unemployment

Seasonally Adjusted U3- 4.2% Up from 4.1%
Unadjusted U3- 4.6% Up from 4.4% in June
Unadjusted U6- 8.3% Up from 8.1% in June
Labor Force Participation Rate- 62.2% Down from 62.3%
Employment- 159.227 million Down from 160.293 million
Next data release September 5, 2025

Summary:

Total Employed decreased in July, Unadjusted Unemployment was up, as was Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment. There are a few early warning signs of a slowing Labor Market.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment changed little in July (+73,000) and has shown little change since April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported today. The unemployment rate, at 4.2 percent, also changed little in July. Employment continued to trend up in health care and in social assistance. Federal government continued to lose jobs…

Federal government employment continued to decline in July (-12,000) and is down by 84,000 since reaching a peak in January. (Employees on paid leave or receiving ongoing severance pay are counted as employed in the establishment survey.)”

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report, we see…
Originally, the BLS reported employment of 160.475 million for June,
which they adjusted down to 160.293 million as of this month.

They are currently reporting 159.227 million jobs for July, which is actually a monthly decrease of 1,248,000 jobs based on their original numbers or 1,066,000 based on their new numbers.

Early Warning Signs of a Weakening Economy

Although the U3 Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment rate is only up 1/10^th of a percent, and the BLS Commissioner tried to put an optimistic spin on it, the number of job openings in the U.S. fell by 275,000 to around 7.4 million last month. So, hiring is slacking off.

Unadjusted Establishment Survey jobs are down by 1,248,000 jobs based on their original June numbers.

The LFPR is down from 62.3% to 62.2%, back to November 2022 levels.

Also, the “Starbucks Indicator” created by Stansberry’s Credit Opportunities editor Mike DiBiase, which says that when Starbucks sales decline for several quarters in a row, the economy is weakening. And that’s exactly what we’re seeing today. Earlier this week, Starbucks reported same-store sales fell 2%. That marked the sixth straight quarter of falling same-store sales.

And, as the Commissioner said, since Government employees scheduled for downsizing are still being paid, they aren’t being counted as unemployed yet, but when their severance pay runs out, that will spike the unemployment rate.

We may be seeing the beginning of an upturn in unemployment in the longer durations, i.e., it is starting to take longer to find a job, 24.9% of those unemployed have been unemployed for 27 weeks or longer.

And finally, looking at the Employment / Population by Race, we see a declining trend in the Employment of Blacks (i.e., the most vulnerable segment of the population). In the chart below, we can see that it has steadily declined for almost two years now. But it sharply declined this month.On the plus side,

ADP’s Chief Economist says, “Employers have grown more optimistic”.

Weakening jobs numbers could force Powell to lower interest rates.

The exodus of illegals should open up more jobs for Americans. According to the WSJ, since mid‑2024, over 1.6 million foreign-born workers have left the U.S. labor force. During the same period, U.S.-born workers added roughly 2.5 million jobs, suggesting a shift toward domestic labor filling openings formerly held by immigrants. One Example: After ICE removes illegal workers, job applicants flood meatpacking plant to replace them.

Also, Trump is negotiating Billions in increased manufacturing investment in the U.S., so in the longer run, jobs should increase, but in the meantime, we may be in for a bit of a rough patch.

Despite these early signs of weakening, FED Chairman Powell didn’t reduce rates at Wednesday’s meeting, citing concerns of rising inflation. But, the market has noted the signs of weakness, and the Futures market has increased the odds of a rate cut in September, from 38% on Wednesday to 85% after Friday’s jobs report.

Current Unemployment Rate Chart

Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment is up from 4.1% to 4.2%. As we can see, unemployment is 0.8% above the January and April lows of 2023 but relatively unchanged over the last year.

Can We Trust the September Unemployment Numbers?

October 9, 2024 by Tim McMahon

In a recent article published by The Epoch Times, Jeffrey A. Tucker founder of the Brownstone Institute wrote an article examining the BLS’ glowing September 2024 Unemployment report. According to the BLS Unemployment fell significantly in September and the media rejoiced in this report without delving into the actual details.

But as Jeffrey dug deeper, he found some strange anomalies. As we do, he examined both the establishment payroll numbers and compared them to the Household Survey numbers. But Jeffrey also looked at the types of jobs, part-time or full-time, foreign-born or U.S. born, and government vs. private sector jobs. [Read more…] about Can We Trust the September Unemployment Numbers?

November Jobs Report

December 2, 2022 by Tim McMahon

Employment Up – Unemployment Unchanged

Unadjusted Employment rose from 154.416 million to 154.990
Labor Force Participation is Down from 62.2% to 62.1%
Adjusted U-3 was unchanged at 3.7%
Unadjusted U-3 was unchanged at 3.4%
Unadjusted U-6 was Up from 6.3% to 6.4%

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for November on December 2^nd.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 263,000 in November, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7 percent. Notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, health care, and government. Employment declined in retail trade and in
transportation and warehousing. The November gain in nonfarm payroll employment was roughly in line with average growth over the prior 3 months (+282,000). Monthly job growth thus far in 2022 has averaged 392,000, compared with 562,000 per month in 2021.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs” from the “Household Survey” rather than looking at the results reported by actual companies in the BLS “Establishment Survey”.

Looking at the Establishment Survey report, we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 154.369 million for October, which they adjusted up to 154.416 million. So, 47,000 additional jobs appeared for October.

November gained an additional 574,000 jobs bringing the total up to 154.990 million.

ADP^® National Employment Report

According to ADP, in collaboration with Stanford Digital Economy Lab

Private employers added 127,000 jobs in November

Job creation slowed by the most since January 2021, led by construction and other interest rate-sensitive sectors. Consumer-facing segments – including health care and hospitality – were bright spots.

ADP also lists increases by “firm size”.

Last month (October) ADP posted these changes…

For November, the numbers definitely look worse, with virtually all the gains in mid-sized companies. People are becoming more risk-averse, so fewer small companies are being started. At some point, when jobs are scarce, starting your own business becomes the only option, so small company creation increases again. :

November 2022 Employment by Sector

The employment “bubble chart” is a quick and easy way to see how each sector performs on a seasonally adjusted basis. The Bubble’s Size tells us the total Employment for that industry (i.e., larger bubbles mean more people are employed in that sector).

The bubble’s location on the chart tells us that there has been a change in Employment Levels over the most recent month… A bubble further to the right indicates larger job growth. A bubble’s vertical location on the chart shows the average industry salary.

In November, Leisure and Hospitality, Education, Construction, Manufacturing, and “Other” were the big gainers, while Retail was the big loser.

Average Weekly Wages Rose

$1,129.01 in November, $1,124.01 in October , $1,119.87 in September, $1116.42 in August, $1,116.54 in July, $1,106.76, in June, $1,105.47 in May and $1,102.01 in April, and $1,086.46 in December 2021. Surprisingly, Retail was the big loser, which is unusual for this time of year. [Read more…] about November Jobs Report

September Unemployment Falls… Dragging Market Down

October 8, 2022 by Tim McMahon

Employment Up – Unemployment Down

Unadjusted Employment rose from 152.642 million to 153.073
Labor Force Participation is Down from 62.4% to 62.3%
Adjusted U-3 was Down from 3.7% to 3.5%
Unadjusted U-3 was Down from 3.8% to 3.3%
Unadjusted U-6 was Down from 7.0% to 6.4%

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for September on October 7^th.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 263,000 in September, and the unemployment rate edged down to 3.5 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality and in health care.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs” from the “Household Survey” rather than looking at the results reported by actual companies in the BLS “Establishment Survey”.

Looking at the Establishment Survey report, we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 152.572 million for August, which they adjusted up to 152.642 million. So, 70,000 additional jobs appeared for August.

September gained an additional 431,000 jobs bringing the total up to 153.073 million.

Normally this would be good news, but perversely the market was hoping for a bad report which would indicate that the FED could cut back on its tightening.
A good September 2022 Unemployment report means inflation is not yet under control, so the FED will continue aggressively tightening.

According to Bloomberg:
“The US labor market stayed strong in September as the unemployment rate unexpectedly returned to an historic low, leaving the inflation-phobic Federal Reserve on course to deliver yet another aggressive interest-rate hike.”

In response, the NYSE lost just over 2% of its value on Friday after the release of the report.

However, just 4 days earlier, on Monday, the BLS had released its “Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey” for August, which in the minds of schizophrenic market analysts, appeared to indicate that the Labor market might possibly be softening just a little, and the market used that as an excuse to rally. So the NYSE opened the week at 13,472… rallied to 14,340… then fell back to 13,798 for the week. (Actually, a 2.4% net gain for the week).

NOTE: The reason we look at the NYSE rather than the more commonly quoted DOW is breadth. The NYSE covers the vast majority of U.S. stocks rather than just a few major ones covered by the DOW.

ADP^® National Employment Report

According to ADP In collaboration with Stanford Digital Economy Lab

Businesses created 208,000 jobs in September, up from a revised 185,000 in August, as schools reopened and pandemic concerns receded. But while job growth is stable, it remains below the recent three-month average.

In other words, jobs are still growing but not as fast as they have been. Despite this slowing of job growth and the FED tightening, ADP’s Chief Economist Nela Richardson believes jobs will continue to grow.

ADP also lists increases by “firm size”.

At some point, it may look like small-size firms (i.e. 1-19 employees) are increasing, while everything else is decreasing, but that could simply be the result of people starting companies because they can’t find any other jobs (although this isn’t currently the case). Currently, there are increases across the board.

Establishment Survey Employment

Looking at the chart for employment, we see that current employment (153.073 million) is just a hair under the 2019 peak (153.095 million) although the civilian population is almost 5 million higher now. So despite all the talk of the strong employment situation, there is a slight disconnect.

See Current Employment for more info.

No Work Experience? Here Are Some Interesting Job Possibilities

January 19, 2022 by Tim McMahon

Looking for work can be daunting. Even when lots of job openings seem available, you might quickly discover that many of them have educational and experience requirements you don’t have. Fortunately, you can find work faster if you look into fields of work that require little to no experience.

Grocery Stores

Whether it’s working as a cashier, bagger, or stock clerk, grocery stores need plenty of people to keep food goods and customers moving. The work is simple enough for on-the-job training. It seems like a low-paying position, but grocery stores pay their employees quite well.

Restaurants

Cooks and managers at regular restaurants might need experience. Waitstaff, greeters, busboys, and dishwashers often don’t. Fastfood is always looking for cooks as well. There are often opportunities for flexible schedules and working your way up if you enjoy working where you do. If you find the right place, you may love the environment more than the work and stay for the ones that take good care of you. [Read more…] about No Work Experience? Here Are Some Interesting Job Possibilities

November Jobs Up But…

December 4, 2021 by Tim McMahon

November 2021 Unemployment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)

Unadjusted U-3 was Down from 4.3% to 3.9%
Adjusted U-3 was Down from 4.6% to 4.2%
Unadjusted U-6 was Down from 7.7% to 7.4%
Labor Force Participation Up 61.6% to 61.8%
Unadjusted employment rose from 149.226 million to 150.004 million

Although November’s job numbers are generally an improvement over October, Bloomberg called them”weird” and “the smallest jobs gain this year”. This jobs report is so weird because retail employment is DOWN by -20,400 in a month, known for increased retail employment. Market commentators are also blaming the Jobs report for Friday’s market drop.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 210,000 in November, and the unemployment rate fell by 0.4 percentage point to 4.2 percent. Notable job gains occurred in professional and business services, transportation and warehousing, construction, and manufacturing. Employment in retail trade declined over the month.”

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs” from the “Current Population Survey (CPS)” rather than looking at the results reported by actual companies in their “Current Employment Statistics survey (CES).”

But looking at the CES report, we see…
Initially, the BLS reported 149.217 million for October, which they adjusted to 149.226 million. For November, they are reporting 150.004 million,
which is an increase of 787,000 jobs based on their original estimates or an increase of 778,000 based on their updated numbers.

September Unemployment Disappointing

October 9, 2021 by Tim McMahon

September nonfarm payroll report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)

Unadjusted U-3 was Down from 5.3% to 4.6%
Adjusted U-3 was Down from 5.2% to 4.8%
Unadjusted U-6 was Down from 8.9% to 8.1%
Labor Force Participation Down from 61.7% to 61.6%
Unadjusted employment rose from 147.028 million to 147.682 million

Although these numbers are generally an improvement over last month (except Labor Force Participation), the market expected better. Bloomberg was projecting jobs growth of roughly 2.5x what we actually got.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 194,000 in September, and the unemployment rate fell by 0.4 percentage point to 4.8 percent.
Notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, in professional and business services, in retail trade, and in transportation and warehousing.
Employment declined in public education over the month.

But looking at the CES report, we see…
Initially, the BLS reported 146.856 for August, which they adjusted to 147.028 million. For September, they are currently saying employment is 147.682 million.
This is an increase of 826,000 jobs based on their original estimates. Or an increase of 654,000 based on their updated numbers.

However, the market considers this a “much softer-than-expected September nonfarm payroll report” since Bloomberg was projecting 500,000 new jobs instead of the CPS Seasonally Adjusted 194,000.

The labor force participation rate dipped to 61.6% from August’s 61.7% rate, compared to forecasts of an increase to 61.8%.

Great Careers: No College Degree Necessary

September 27, 2021 by Tim McMahon

If college isn’t for you, there are still several career options available. Look into these careers that don’t require you to have a college degree.

Handyman

Many people work well with their hands and easily grasp concepts used in construction and home comfort. These people may find success as a handyman.

People call a handyman when something, such as plumbing or the HVAC system, breaks down. A handyman generally possesses extensive knowledge about how many different systems and things in the home. However, they may not have the authority to upgrade the circuit breaker or gas meter.

Security Guard

Security guards protect places and individuals that are at a higher level of risk. You’ve likely seen them at your bank, guarding VIPs, or protecting gated communities, or monitoring things during special events.

Being a security guard may require some specialized training, but you won’t need to go through a long, drawn-out process. Security guards also have the opportunity to learn more even after they have established themselves in their careers, giving them the chance to earn more money.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics lists various “Protective Service Occupations,” including Security Guards and Gambling Surveillance Officers. Private Detectives and Investigators, and Correctional Officers and Bailiffs. According to the BLS the average salary for Security Guards is $31,080/yr.

Garbage Collectors

For years, people made fun of garbage collectors for the more disgusting aspects of their jobs. However, the garbage collectors are the ones laughing now, all the way to the bank. Some of the established employees make as much as $112,000 a year. While the average salary is significantly lower, many sanitation workers still make more than some college graduates. Garbage collectors also get all of the benefits of a government job, including all federal holidays off, a retirement plan, health insurance, and job security.

Real Estate Agent

In order to become a real estate agent, you need to pass the required certification in your area. After that, the sky’s the limit on how much you can make. However, getting started can prove difficult for beginners.

You will need to work hard to get listings, develop meaningful relationships, and maintain those relationships before you get the opportunity to buy and sell expensive houses that come with high commissions.

A college degree does not necessarily equal a high-paying job, and you do have options without it.

You might also like:

How Military Service Can Set You up for a Good Education/Career

August 19, 2021 by Tim McMahon

Military service usually lasts more than two years, which will put you in a good position to apply to schools. Military service can provide students with skills and opportunities that they wouldn’t have otherwise. It could be easy for them to get into a school after their service because they already have the experience and connections that are necessary for admissions.

Benefits of Joining the Military

Military service often means leaving home and moving away from family members, friends, and other personal supports that may not be easily replaced elsewhere. After serving your country, you have two options. For some, military service is a way to become more independent and make a career for yourself. Others become officers in order to continue to serve their country. In short, there are many opportunities that can help you with your current financial situation.

Acquiring a Military Education

Online colleges for military education are not just a means to help students get into a good university or college. [Read more…] about How Military Service Can Set You up for a Good Education/Career

jobs

Employment / Unemployment

Early Warning Signs of a Weakening Economy

Current Unemployment Rate Chart

Would More Jobs Help Social Security?

Employment Up – Unemployment Unchanged

ADP® National Employment Report

Private employers added 127,000 jobs in November

November 2022 Employment by Sector

Average Weekly Wages Rose

Employment Up – Unemployment Down

ADP® National Employment Report

Establishment Survey Employment

Grocery Stores

Restaurants

November 2021 Unemployment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)

September nonfarm payroll report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)

Handyman

Security Guard

Garbage Collectors

Real Estate Agent

Benefits of Joining the Military

Acquiring a Military Education

ADP^® National Employment Report

ADP^® National Employment Report