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You are here: Home / Archives for Unemployment

Unemployment

100,000 Layoffs and Counting: Is this the New Normal?

March 19, 2015 by Guest Contributor

Oil JobsThis time a year ago, the oil industry’s biggest problem was finding a way to deal with the “retirement tsunami” about to crash down on it as older oilfield workers hung up their cork boots to enjoy freedom-55. Now, with oil prices still in the doldrums, many of those same workers are lucky to be hanging onto their jobs, while others have been booted from the payroll as an ugly wave of layoffs takes hold.

One of the worst-affected areas is [Read more…] about 100,000 Layoffs and Counting: Is this the New Normal?

Filed Under: Unemployment Tagged With: employment, jobs, Oil

BLS Releases February Unemployment Numbers

March 6, 2015 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the February Unemployment figures on Friday March 6th. According to the BLS the Current Unemployment Rate (Seasonally adjusted) for February was 5.5% down from 5.7% in January. Along the same lines we see the Unadjusted Unemployment rates fall from 6.1% to 5.8%.  However, according to Gallup the Unadjusted Unemployment rate was actually 6.7% and the U-6 unemployment rate was 16.1%.

Unemployment Numbers According to Gallup

 

Unadjusted U-3 Unadjusted U-6
BLS 5.8% 11.4%
Gallup 6.7% 16.1%
Difference 0.9% 4.7%

Once again the BLS numbers are quite a bit different than the [Read more…] about BLS Releases February Unemployment Numbers

Filed Under: Unemployment Tagged With: employment, unemployment

The Big Lie – Part 2

February 13, 2015 by Elliott Wave International

Last week we published an article titled Gallup Head Says Unemployment Rate is “A Big Lie” in it we said that, the big news is that Jim Clifton the CEO of Gallup said that unemployment is really closer to 9%. Here’s what he said:

There’s no other way to say this. The official unemployment rate, which cruelly overlooks the suffering of the long-term and often permanently unemployed as well as the depressingly underemployed, amounts to a Big Lie.

Today the editors of Elliott Wave International look at the implications of that statement and how it relates to inflation and deflation. ~Tim McMahon, editor

The “Big Lie” About the U.S. Jobs Picture

Some 30 million people are either out of work or severely underemployed

By Elliott Wave International

Editor’s note: You’ll find the text version of the story below the video.

Get Your FREE Special Report: What You Need to Know
NOW About Protecting Yourself from Deflation »

The financial media has recently featured stories with an upbeat outlook for the U.S. economy.

For example: The economy is on track for “the fastest growth in a decade” (Associated Press), and “Experts expect jobs aplenty in ’15” (USA Today).

This upbeat tone is related to December’s U.S. jobless rate of 5.6%, its lowest since June 2008.

But [Read more…] about The Big Lie – Part 2

Filed Under: Unemployment Tagged With: 5.6% Jobless, Deflation, Lie, unemployment

A Changing Economy = Changing Job Opportunities

November 10, 2014 by John Mauldin

​In a recent issue of Outside the Box author John Mauldin told a story of life when he was growing up and how it created an opportunity for him to earn some extra money while he was going to college. But today things have changed so much that young people today don’t even understand what he is talking about.

With technology changing so rapidly, if you want a good job, it is critical that you keep up… and so with that lets look at life in 1958 from John’s perspective.  ~Tim McMahon, editor [Read more…] about A Changing Economy = Changing Job Opportunities

Filed Under: Unemployment

BLS Releases August Unemployment: 6.1% Down from 6.2% in July

September 6, 2014 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the August Unemployment figures on September 5th. The Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate was 6.2% up from 6.1% in June. The Unadjusted Unemployment rate was also down from 6.5% in July to 6.3% in August.

BLS vs GallupIn another rare occurrence, the BLS seasonally adjusted numbers are actually identical to the Gallup numbers for the first time since September 2011. In the interim the BLS has been lower than the Gallup numbers 24 times and Gallup has been lower 9 times. The average difference when the BLS is lower is  0.6% but when Gallup is lower the average has only been 0.3%. So in addition to BLS being lower more often it is also lower by more indicating some sort of bias to the downside. But perhaps the BLS is mending their ways since last month and this month have resulted in the BLS and Gallup being well within a normal margin of error. [Read more…] about BLS Releases August Unemployment: 6.1% Down from 6.2% in July

Filed Under: Unemployment

BLS Releases July Unemployment: 6.2% Up from 6.1% in June

August 1, 2014 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the July Unemployment figures on August 1st. The Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate was 6.2% up from 6.1% in June. The Unadjusted Unemployment rate was also up from 6.3% in June to 6.5% July. Of course the spin-doctors at the BLS said it was “virtually unchanged”.

BLS vs Gallup Unemployment NumbersIn a surprising turn of events, the unadjusted BLS numbers actually agree with the Gallup numbers with the rare occurrence that the BLS numbers are actually higher than the Gallup numbers for the first time in 17 months.

Of course, we shouldn’t get too excited because the “adjusted numbers” are still a bit on the low side and the smoke and mirrors coming out of the BLS have simply shifted to the Employment numbers.

Employment Numbers

According to the commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly report, “Total non-farm payroll employment increased by 209,000 in July, the same as its average monthly gain over the prior 12 months. In July, employment grew in professional and business services, manufacturing, retail trade, and construction.”

So we might begin to wonder if Employment went up, how did unemployment also go up? Of course, the [Read more…] about BLS Releases July Unemployment: 6.2% Up from 6.1% in June

Filed Under: Unemployment Tagged With: employment, unemployment

February’s US Unemployment Statistics [Infographic]

March 18, 2014 by Lisa McMahon

For those of you who are more visual thinkers and like to see pictures rather than read a bunch of numbers, here’s an infographic we’ve created to illustrate the important statistics for February 2014 from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.

February 2014 US Unemployment statistics
Click for larger image. Permission is granted to share this image as long as it is not altered.

If you wish to embed this graphic on your own site, please use the following code:

<a href=”https://unemploymentdata.com”><img alt=”February 2014 US Unemployment statistics” src=”https://unemploymentdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/Feb2014Unemployment.png” width=”576″ height=”1728″ /></a>

Filed Under: Unemployment

BLS Releases February Unemployment Numbers

March 7, 2014 by Tim McMahon

Bureau of Labor Statistics Unemployment Data:

Current Unemployment Rate

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the Unemployment numbers today.  According to the government agency the current “Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment rate is 6.7% up slightly from January’s 6.6%. The unadjusted unemployment rate was unchanged at 7%. The broadest measure of unemployment which includes discouraged workers called U-6 was at 13.1% down from 13.5% last month.

 

Gallup Unemployment Data:

Amid concern about the reliability of the BLS numbers, four years ago, Gallup Poles decided to begin tracking unemployment numbers themselves. So we have an alternative to the Government numbers. According to Gallup the adjusted unemployment rate is 7.6% and the Unadjusted unemployment rate is 8.0%. But the real difference comes with the U-6  which Gallup calls the “Underemployment rate” at 17.5% it is a full 4.4% higher than the government sanctioned numbers. [Read more…] about BLS Releases February Unemployment Numbers

Filed Under: Unemployment

January 2014 US Unemployment Rate: 7.0% BLS or 8.6% Gallup

February 7, 2014 by Tim McMahon

See Current Unemployment Rate for latest information.

Gap Between BLS and Gallup Data Growing

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the data for January. According to the BLS, the current “Seasonally Adjusted” Unemployment Rate for January 2014 (released Februuary 7th) is 6.6% down from 6.7% in December. But the “Unadjusted” Unemployment Rate is 7% up from 6.5%. So the unadjusted rate went up by .5% and the adjusted rate went down by 0.1%.

However, according to surveys by the Gallup organization Adjusted Unemployment was actually 8.0% in January and Unadjusted Unemployment was 8.6%. Supposedly, the Gallup and BLS surveys are using the same methods! Last month the difference was 0.9% but this month it has grown to 1.4%!

Adjusted Unadjusted
BLS 6.6% 7.0%
Gallup 8.0% 8.6%
Difference 1.4% 1.6%

 

So we have a major divergence between what Gallup is telling us and what the BLS is claiming and the gap is significant. Last month the difference between the BLS unadjusted and Gallup unadjusted was 0.9% this month the difference is 1.6%. See Is the Government Fudging Unemployment Numbers? for the comparison of Gallup numbers vs. Bureau of Labor Statistics numbers.

In addition according to Gallup the U.S. Payroll to Population employment rate (P2P), as measured by Gallup, was only 42.9% in November (meaning that less than 43% of the people in the county are working) down from 44.6% in July and 45.7% in October 2012. And in January the P2P had fallen even further to only 42%. In other words according to Gallup, the percentage of the entire population of the country that is working is decreasing but according to the BLS unemployment is going down. Decreasing P2P should equal higher unemployment not lower, unless the people are dropping out of the workforce and not even looking for jobs.

 

Current US Unemployment Rate Chart

unemployment_rate_Jan_2014

(Click for Larger Image)

If we compare the BLS unemployment numbers to their own employment numbers we can get an idea of what is really happening, unless they decide to have another major revision (read massive number fudging) like they did in December 2012.

In June 2013 the BLS said we had 136.769 million people employed (at least 1 hour a week) in November they say we had 137.942 million employed. So that looks good. A net increase of 1.173 million jobs. during that same period the civilian non-institutional population increased by 811,000.

To recap:

Unadjusted U-6 Unadjusted U-3 Adjusted U-3 Employment Civilian Population Net
December 2011 15.2% 8.3% 8.5% 133.292 Million 240.584 Million
December 2012 14.4% 7.6% 7.8% 135.560 Million 244.350 Million
January 2013 15.4% 8.5% 7.9% 132.704 Million 244.663 Million
February 2013 14.9% 8.1% 7.7% 133.752 Million 244.828 Million
March 2013 13.9% 7.6% 7.6% 134.570 Million 244.995 Million
April 2013 13.4% 7.1% 7.5% 135.513 Million 245.175 Million
May 2013 13.4% 7.3% 7.6% 136.383 Million 245.363 Million
June 2013 14.6% 7.8% 7.6% 136.769 Million 245.552 Million
July 2013 14.3% 7.7% 7.4% 135.577 Million 245.756 Million
August 2013 13.6% 7.3% 7.3% 136.002 Million 245.959 Million
September 2013 13.1% 7.0% 7.2% 136.612 Million 246.168 Million
October 2013 13.2% 7.0% 7.3% 137.523 Million 246.381 Million
November 2013 12.7% 6.6% 7.0% 137.999 Million 246.567 Million
December 2013 13.0% 6.5% 6.7% 137.753 Million 246.745 Million
January 2014 13.5% 7.0% 6.6%
2 mo. Change -0.4% -0.4% -0.1% 230,000 364,000

.230 -.364=

-.134

12 mo. Change -1.4% -1.1% -1.1% 2.193 Million 2.395 Million

2.193-2.395=

-0.202

So over the last 12 months employment has increased 2.193 million but the civilian non-institutional population (a fairly narrow measurement of population) increased by 2.395 Million so that results in a comparative net LOSS of 202,000. This agrees with to Gallup’s Payroll to Population (P2P) employment rate. So how can a decline in P2P possibly result in a decline in unemployment by -1.1% ? So even using the BLS’s own Employment numbers we can see that the Unemployment rate is not accurate.

Note: With all the scandals coming out of Washington these days, the key question of course is whether we can actually trust the numbers coming out of the BLS. I’ve been saying for a while that the unemployment numbers don’t match up with the employment numbers. In January 2013 the BLS decided to “fix” this problem. But rather than give us the real unemployment numbers they just went back to July of 1991 and simply changed the employment numbers. How the number of people employed could have suddenly changed that far back in history is beyond me, especially considering that they are supposed to come from reports from employers.

The change started small and grew to 738,000 jobs at the peak in December 2012. Yes, they simply added 3/4 million jobs out of thin air. This year they figured that it went so well last year they would go back and magically invent some more jobs… so in January 2014 another 513,000 appeared out of thin air. Supposedly after 3 months the final numbers are in and they can’t be changed but that doesn’t seem to stop them. Note that they say the “benchmarking” goes back as far as January 2009 but in actuality they changed the numbers all the way back to January 1978.  Somehow by calling it “annual practice” that makes it OK.

Here is how the BLS explains it:

Revisions to Establishment Survey Data

In accordance with annual practice, the establishment survey data released today have been
benchmarked to reflect comprehensive counts of payroll jobs for March 2013. These counts
are derived principally from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), which
enumerates jobs covered by the UI tax system. The benchmark process results in revisions
to not seasonally adjusted data from April 2012 forward. Seasonally adjusted data from
January 2009 forward are subject to revision. In addition, data for some series prior to
2009, both seasonally adjusted and unadjusted, incorporate revisions.

The total nonfarm employment level for March 2013 was revised upward by 369,000 (+347,000
on a not seasonally adjusted basis, or 0.3 percent). The average benchmark revision over
the past 10 years was plus or minus 0.3 percent. 

This revision incorporates the reclassification of jobs in the QCEW. Private household
employment is out of scope for the establishment survey. The QCEW reclassified some
private household employment into an industry that is in scope for the establishment
survey--services for the elderly and persons with disabilities. This reclassification
accounted for an increase of 466,000 jobs in the establishment survey. This increase of
466,000 associated with reclassification was offset by survey error of -119,000 for a
total net benchmark revision of +347,000 on a not seasonally adjusted basis. Historical
time series have been reconstructed to incorporate these revisions. 

The effect of these revisions on the underlying trend in nonfarm payroll employment was
minor. For example, the over-the-year change in total nonfarm employment for 2013 was
revised from 2,186,000 to 2,322,000 seasonally adjusted. Table A presents revised total
nonfarm employment data on a seasonally adjusted basis for January through December 2013.

All revised historical CES data, as well as an article that discusses the benchmark and
post-benchmark revisions and other technical issues can be accessed through the CES
homepage at www.bls.gov/ces/. Information on the data released today also may be obtained
by calling (202) 691-6555.

Filed Under: Unemployment Tagged With: January 2014 Unemployment Rate

Unemployment and Your Credit

January 7, 2014 by Tim McMahon

The day you’re laid off can be one of the worst days of your life. If you are unemployed, you know how challenging the job market is and how hard it is to find a new job. One thing you may be worried about is your credit, and whether your credit will take a hit while you are unemployed. Here are some things you need to know about unemployment and your credit.

Evaluate Your Savings

Unemployment and Credit Before you panic, you need to take a step back and come up with a game plan. How much money is in the bank? Do you have enough money to pay your mortgage and other bills for the next few months? Did you receive a severance package? Are you eligible for unemployment compensation? Either way you need to cut your expenses to the bone. Evaluate ongoing subscriptions, stop eating out, going to movies, etc.

Unexpected unemployment is a major reason why experts suggest having a cushion of savings of at least 3 months (and preferably 6 months or more).  If you only have a few hundred dollars in your savings account, you may need to [Read more…] about Unemployment and Your Credit

Filed Under: Unemployment

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