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Would More Jobs Help Social Security?

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Social Security Check
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The following article by Valerie Rhea originally appeared on Quora. Valerie is a thirty-something PhD economist, former military pilot, with a law degree.

Would More Jobs Help Social Security?

Yes, higher employment (and higher wages, by the way) results in more inflows to the Social Security system. In 2024, the SSA spent about $60 billion more than it took in via payroll taxes. If US payrolls increased by about $500 billion – that’s about 1.75% of GDP – then instead of operating at a deficit, Social Security would have approximately broken even.

To realize $500 billion in increased payrolls, roughly 6 million average-paying jobs would need to be added. If we forget about population growth for a moment, that means expanding the US workforce participation rate by about 4% would do the trick. That would take us to a workforce participation rate of about 66%—levels last seen during the Bush administration.

Unfortunately, keeping Social Security solvent becomes increasingly difficult to keep up with because of the country’s demographics. Right now, an estimated 2.4 workers pay into Social Security for every person receiving benefits, down from about five workers per beneficiary in 1960. By 2050, the ratio is expected to fall below two workers per beneficiary. Further, during any period of inflation, COLA adjustments and so on force the cost of benefits to grow rapidly. Although every little bit helps, America just isn’t likely to grow our workforce fast enough to keep up with longer lifespans.

[Read more…] about Would More Jobs Help Social Security?

Have Wages Kept Up With Inflation?

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One of the most important questions regarding your income is whether your wages have kept up with inflation.  You might be getting nice yearly raises, but if inflation is growing faster, you are still falling behind. So, in order for your purchasing power to increase or at least stay the same it is important to look at Inflation-Adjusted wages.

If you ask your neighbors, they will almost certainly say that the average wage hasn’t kept up with inflation. And since “bad news sells” even the media tends to try to convince us that the average wage hasn’t kept up with inflation. But what do the actual numbers say?

If we look at the numbers presented by the Federal Reserve CES0500000003 index (Average Hourly Earnings of All Employees) we get the following chart. And it looks pretty good, wages are going up fairly steadily. But is inflation going up faster? We really can’t tell.

Average Hourly Wages

Inflation-Adjusted Hourly Wages

So to get the true picture we have to adjust it by the Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) and then we get the following chart: [Read more…] about Have Wages Kept Up With Inflation?

Opportunities You Can Find With a CDL License

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Long Haul Truck driverDeciding to obtain a Commercial Driver’s License (CDL) can unlock a variety of career paths in the transportation industry. From long-haul trucking to local delivery, each role offers its own unique set of opportunities and demands. Whether driving across the country or staying within city limits, CDL holders can find fulfilling jobs that suit different lifestyles and preferences. Understanding the different opportunities available with a CDL can help you make an informed decision about which path might be right for you.

Long-Haul Truck Driver

Long-haul truck drivers are essential to the transportation industry, delivering goods across vast distances. These professionals typically drive heavy-duty trucks and spend several days or even weeks on the road giving you the opportunity to see a lot of the country. A key aspect of this career is the ability to navigate various terrains and weather conditions while adhering to strict delivery schedules. Long-haul drivers often experience the independence of solitary travel but must also manage tasks such as logging hours and maintaining their vehicles. Employers often look for reliability, a clean driving record, and the ability to manage extended periods away from home.

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Heavy and Tractor-trailer Truck Drivers earned $54,320 per year or $26.12 per hour in 2023. Heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers usually have a high school diploma and attend a professional truck driving school. They must have a commercial driver’s license (CDL). [Read more…] about Opportunities You Can Find With a CDL License

June Employment Weak

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The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for June on July 5th, 2024.

Employment / Unemployment 

Adj U3 Icon 4-1-up

  • Seasonally Adjusted U3- 4.1% up from 4.0% in May
  • Unadjusted U3- 4.3% up from 3.7% in May
  • Unadjusted U6- 7.7% up from 7.1% in May
  • Labor Force Participation Rate 62.6% up from 62.5%
  • Employment 159.392 million up from 158.845 million
  • Next data release August 2nd, 2024

Summary:
Total Employed increased in June, Unadjusted Unemployment was up sharply, but Seasonally adjusted Unemployment increased only slightly.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 206,000 in June, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in government, health care, social assistance, and construction…

Both the unemployment rate, at 4.1 percent, and the number of unemployed people, at 6.8 million, changed little in June. These measures are higher than a year earlier, when the jobless rate was 3.6 percent and the number of unemployed people was 6.0 million.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 158.918  million for May
which they now adjusted to 158.845 million.

They are currently reporting 159.392 million jobs for June which is actually an increase of 474,000 jobs compare to what they first reported or 547,000 compared to their new numbers.

The LFPR was up from 62.5% to 62.6%.

Good News for the Market?

In the perverse stock market of these post-pandemic days, the market is looking for an excuse for the FED to cut interest rates so “Bad News is Good News” for the market.

The news wasn’t bad enough to spark a major rally but after falling initially, at around 10:30 AM the market turned around and rallied for the rest of the day taking it to slightly above the previous day’s close. So basically a giant “nothing burger”.

Current Unemployment Rate Chart

Seasonally Adjusted U3 Unemployment remains above the pre-COVID 2019 cyclical lows of 3.5%, but is approaching the yellow zone.

Seasonally Adj U-3 Unemployment Rate June 24

[Read more…] about June Employment Weak

Why Consumer Sentiment Fell To A Seven-Month Low

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Consumer SentimentThe University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey plummeted to its lowest level in seven months. The index reading for June came in at 65.6, down from 69.1 in May and under the consensus expectation of 72. In the current conditions and expectations categories, the survey fell below economists’ expectations.

Year-ahead inflation expectations were unchanged this month at 3.3%, but above the 2.3–3.0% range seen in the two years prior to the pandemic, according to the press release. Long-run inflation expectations rose from 3.0% last month to 3.1% in June, significantly above the 2.2-2.6% range seen in the two years pre-pandemic. This survey indicates how weak the U.S. economy is and how consumers are feeling the persistent inflation.

Joe Biden posted on X “Zero. That was monthly inflation in May. There is more to do still, but this is welcome progress.” Inflation was 3.3% in May, and services, shelter, and electricity increased by 5.3%, 5.4%, and 5.9%, respectively. A zero increase in June in the CPI reading is not zero inflation in the month. Consumers in America may find these optimistic messages exaggerated and almost propagandistic. Furthermore, CPI inflation should have been significantly lower, close to 2%, months ago. Is it welcome progress, as the president says? Not really. However, the underlying message of the X post is probably closer to “it could have been worse.”. [Read more…] about Why Consumer Sentiment Fell To A Seven-Month Low

How To Excel As An Electric Vehicle Technician

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Electrical Vehicle TechnicianThe demand for skilled electric vehicle technicians is surging, with the automotive industry rapidly transitioning towards electric vehicles (EVs). Today we explore the essential skills required to excel in this field and the training options available to aspiring EV technicians. By understanding the necessary competencies and choosing the right training path, you can set yourself up for a promising career in EV maintenance and repair.

The Rise of Electric Vehicles (EVs) and the Need for Skilled Technicians

The global shift towards sustainable energy has significantly accelerated the adoption of electric vehicles. Governments and consumers alike are increasingly recognizing the environmental and economic benefits of EVs, leading to a growing number of electric vehicles on the road. With this rise comes an urgent need for skilled technicians who can maintain and repair these advanced machines. Technicians with specialized knowledge of EV technology are essential to ensuring the longevity and efficiency of electric vehicle fleets.

Essential Skills for EV Technicians

Understanding EV Technology

One of the most fundamental skills for an EV technician is a thorough understanding of electric vehicle technology. This includes knowledge of how electric motors work, the functionality of battery systems, and the integration of various electronic components. A solid grasp of EV technology forms the foundation for all other skills.

Proficiency in Electrical Systems

Electric vehicles rely heavily on sophisticated electrical systems. Thus, proficiency in electrical engineering principles is crucial. Technicians must be adept at working with high-voltage systems, diagnosing electrical faults, and implementing effective repairs. This requires a keen eye for detail and a systematic approach to problem-solving. [Read more…] about How To Excel As An Electric Vehicle Technician

The American Labor Market: Fact vs. Fiction

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The American Labor MarketBy Jacob Swartz

When we consider markets, we typically think of commerce – the buying and selling of goods and services, international trade, investing, supply and demand. Markets are the backbone of our economy. Almost everything has a market – food, medical care, toys, films and entertainment, weapons, drugs, stocks. But there is one market that surpasses them all in importance, without which no other market could exist – the labor market.

Labor is crucial for commerce. Without people to produce goods and services, commerce would cease to exist. Businesses rely on labor to function, creating a demand similar to that for material goods and services. In other words, the labor market is the foundation on which all other markets depend.

In an age where everyone feels the need to have an opinion on just about everything, many people consider themselves “economic experts.” However, when everyone has an opinion on a complex issue, most of those opinions are bound to be wrong. Economics is a prime example of this, filled with false consensuses. With that in mind, let’s go ahead and debunk some common myths about the history of the American labor market, from the Industrial Revolution to the present. [Read more…] about The American Labor Market: Fact vs. Fiction

The Challenges and Triumphs of Working in Emergency Care

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Emergency WorkersUnlike any other healthcare environment, working in an emergency care department presents a unique set of challenges and rewards. Professionals in this field navigate through a fast-paced atmosphere where decisions can mean the difference between life and death. Despite the demanding nature of the job, the sense of accomplishment and purpose it provides is unparalleled. Let’s explore the intricacies of working in emergency care, shedding light on both its trials and victories.

Navigating the Challenges

Overcrowding and Understaffing

One of the most pressing issues in many emergency departments worldwide is overcrowding, compounded by understaffing. This situation strains resources and makes it difficult for healthcare workers to provide timely and effective care to every patient. The pressure to perform under such conditions can be immense, leading to burnout among staff. [Read more…] about The Challenges and Triumphs of Working in Emergency Care

Exploring the Benefits of a Career in Truck Driving

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A career in truck drivingAre you looking for a career that offers stability, flexibility, and the opportunity for growth? If so, a career in truck driving may be the perfect fit for you. In this blog post, we will explore the many benefits of pursuing a career in truck driving and why it may be the right choice for you.

Competitive Salary

One of the biggest benefits of a career in truck driving is the competitive salary. Additionally, many trucking companies offer bonuses, benefits, and other incentives to attract and retain drivers. With the potential for overtime pay and opportunities for advancement, a career in truck driving can provide a lucrative income for individuals.

Job Security

Another advantage of a career in truck driving is the job security it offers. With the demand for goods constantly growing, there is a consistent need for truck drivers to transport goods across the country. This means that truck drivers are always in high demand, providing a sense of job security that may not be found in other industries. Additionally, advancements in technology and regulations have made truck driving safer and more efficient, further improving job security for drivers.

[Read more…] about Exploring the Benefits of a Career in Truck Driving

Preparing for a Career in Medicine: What You Need to Know

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Career in MedicineAre you considering a career in medicine? Whether you have just graduated high school or are looking to make a career change, the field of medicine offers a rewarding and fulfilling path. However, before diving in, there are important factors to consider to ensure you are well-prepared for the journey ahead. In this post, we will discuss essential tips for starting a career in medicine that will help you navigate the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead.

 Consider What Sparked Your Interest in the Field

The first step to starting a career in medicine is to carefully consider your motivations and goals. Medicine is a challenging field that requires dedication, hard work, and a genuine passion for helping others. Take some time to reflect on why you want to pursue a career in medicine and what you hope to achieve. This will not only help you stay motivated during the long and demanding training process, but also guide you in choosing a specialty that aligns with your interests and values.

A career in medicine should not be taken lightly. It is a calling that demands a significant commitment and sacrifice from those who choose to pursue it. The journey to becoming a doctor involves years of rigorous education, long hours of studying and training, and immense pressure to perform well. It also requires a deep sense of empathy and compassion for patients, as well as the ability to handle high levels of stress and make difficult decisions. Before embarking on this path, be sure to fully understand the challenges and responsibilities that come with the career.

Possible Medical Careers

There is a vast selection of possible careers in the medical field everything from Medical Coders, to Paramedics (EMTs), CNAs, Nurses (several types), Doctors, Surgeons, Lab Techs, Physician Assistants, and Heath Care Administrators to name just a few.  Each requires different levels of training and requires different skills. So, you need to do your research on the niche you choose to pursue.

[Read more…] about Preparing for a Career in Medicine: What You Need to Know