BLS

February Employment / Unemployment Report

March 4, 2022 by Tim McMahon

February 2022 Unemployment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)

Adjusted U-3 was Down from 4.0% to 3.8%
Unadjusted U-3 was Down from 4.4% to 4.1%
Unadjusted U-6 was Down from 7.9% to 7.6%
Labor Force Participation Up from 62.2% 62.3%
Unadjusted Employment rose from 147. 510 million to 148. 964 million

February 2022 Unemployment report:

AP says: Strong Job Growth Points to COVID’s Fading Grip on Economy “Employers added a robust 678,000 jobs in February, the largest monthly total since July, the Labor Department reported Friday.”

CNBC says: U.S. unemployment rate falls in February, but ticks up for Black women “The unemployment rate for Black women ticked up to 6.1% in February from 5.8% in the previous month.”

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 678,000 in February, and the unemployment rate edged down to 3.8 percent. Employment growth was widespread, led by gains in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, health care, and construction. Employment is down by 2.1 million, or 1.4 percent, from its level before the onset of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic in February 2020.

In February, employment growth continued in leisure and hospitality (+179,000) with job gains in food services and drinking places (+124,000) and accommodation (+28,000). “

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs” from the “Current Population Survey (CPS)” rather than looking at the results reported by actual companies in their “Current Employment Statistics survey (CES)”

But looking at the CES report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 147.525 million for January which they adjusted to 147.510 million. So 15,000 jobs disappeared for January. But they are reporting 148.964 million jobs for February which is actually an increase of 1,439,000 jobs based on their original estimates or an increase of 1,454,000 based on their updated numbers.

January 2022 Unemployment Up not DOWN as Reported

February 5, 2022 by Tim McMahon

January 2022 Unemployment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)

Adjusted U-3 was UP from 3.9% to 4.0%
Unadjusted U-3 was Up from 3.7% to 4.4%
Unadjusted U-6 was Up from 7.2% to 7.9%
Labor Force Participation Up from 61.9% 62.2%
Unadjusted Employment fell from 150.349 million to 147. 525 million

January 2022 Unemployment report: Establishment news media chose to put a positive spin on this month’s Jobs report focusing on the Bureau of Labor Statistics 467,000 jobs number. U.S. News says, US Economy Defies Omicron and Adds 467,000 Jobs in January. Long-time readers of this site will remember that this is a Seasonally Adjusted number based on the “Current Population Survey (CPS)” rather than looking at the results reported by actual companies in their “Current Employment Statistics survey (CES)”. As we explain below, more people were NOT employed in January than in December all that the adjusted number indicates is that fewer people lost their jobs in January than in a typical January. In actuality, there were 2.6 million fewer employed in January 2022 than in December 2021 and even the Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment rate INCREASED from 3.9% to 4.0% while UNADJUSTED unemployment increased even more.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 467,000 in January, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 4.0 percent. Employment growth continued in leisure and hospitality, in professional and business services, in retail trade, and in transportation and warehousing. Employment has increased by 19.1 million since April 2020 but is down by 2.9 million, or 1.9 percent, from its level before the onset of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic in February 2020. Monthly job growth averaged 555,000 in 2021.”

But looking at the CES report we see…
Originally the BLS reported 150.170 million for December which they adjusted to 150.349 million. For January they are reporting 147.525 million.
which is actually a decrease of 2,645,000 jobs based on their original estimates or a decrease of 2,824,000 based on their updated numbers. Typically January loses a significant number of jobs due to post-holiday layoffs so January employment decreases are not that unusual. But if we look at the adjusted numbers we see that even the seasonally adjusted unemployment was up suggesting that the layoff was a bit worse than usual.

November Jobs Up But…

December 4, 2021 by Tim McMahon

November 2021 Unemployment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)

Unadjusted U-3 was Down from 4.3% to 3.9%
Adjusted U-3 was Down from 4.6% to 4.2%
Unadjusted U-6 was Down from 7.7% to 7.4%
Labor Force Participation Up 61.6% to 61.8%
Unadjusted employment rose from 149.226 million to 150.004 million

Although November’s job numbers are generally an improvement over October, Bloomberg called them”weird” and “the smallest jobs gain this year”. This jobs report is so weird because retail employment is DOWN by -20,400 in a month, known for increased retail employment. Market commentators are also blaming the Jobs report for Friday’s market drop.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 210,000 in November, and the unemployment rate fell by 0.4 percentage point to 4.2 percent. Notable job gains occurred in professional and business services, transportation and warehousing, construction, and manufacturing. Employment in retail trade declined over the month.”

But looking at the CES report, we see…
Initially, the BLS reported 149.217 million for October, which they adjusted to 149.226 million. For November, they are reporting 150.004 million,
which is an increase of 787,000 jobs based on their original estimates or an increase of 778,000 based on their updated numbers.

October 2021 Unemployment Down as Expected

November 6, 2021 by Tim McMahon

October 2021 Unemployment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)

Unadjusted U-3 was Down from 4.6% to 4.3%
Adjusted U-3 was Down from 4.8% to 4.6%
Unadjusted U-6 was Down from 8.1% to 7.7%
Labor Force Participation unchanged at 61.6%
Unadjusted employment rose from 147.659 million to 149.217 million

These numbers are generally an improvement over last month (except Labor Force Participation), in line with market expectations. Typically October and November are up months for employment with Seasonal hiring for the Holidays.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 531,000 in October, and the unemployment rate edged down by 0.2 percentage point to 4.6 percent.
Job growth was widespread, with notable job gains in leisure and hospitality, in professional and business services, in manufacturing,
and in transportation and warehousing. Employment declined in public education over the month.”

But looking at the CES report we see…
Originally the BLS reported 147.682 for September which they adjusted to 147.659 million. For October they are currently saying employment is 149.217 million.
which is actually an increase of 1,535,000 jobs based on their original estimates or an increase of 1,558,000 based on their updated numbers.

September Unemployment Disappointing

October 9, 2021 by Tim McMahon

September nonfarm payroll report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)

Unadjusted U-3 was Down from 5.3% to 4.6%
Adjusted U-3 was Down from 5.2% to 4.8%
Unadjusted U-6 was Down from 8.9% to 8.1%
Labor Force Participation Down from 61.7% to 61.6%
Unadjusted employment rose from 147.028 million to 147.682 million

Although these numbers are generally an improvement over last month (except Labor Force Participation), the market expected better. Bloomberg was projecting jobs growth of roughly 2.5x what we actually got.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 194,000 in September, and the unemployment rate fell by 0.4 percentage point to 4.8 percent.
Notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, in professional and business services, in retail trade, and in transportation and warehousing.
Employment declined in public education over the month.

But looking at the CES report, we see…
Initially, the BLS reported 146.856 for August, which they adjusted to 147.028 million. For September, they are currently saying employment is 147.682 million.
This is an increase of 826,000 jobs based on their original estimates. Or an increase of 654,000 based on their updated numbers.

However, the market considers this a “much softer-than-expected September nonfarm payroll report” since Bloomberg was projecting 500,000 new jobs instead of the CPS Seasonally Adjusted 194,000.

The labor force participation rate dipped to 61.6% from August’s 61.7% rate, compared to forecasts of an increase to 61.8%.

August Unemployment Improves as Pandemic Benefits Expire

September 4, 2021 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their employment / unemployment report for August.

Unadjusted U-3 was Down from 5.7% to 5.3%
Adjusted U-3 was Down from 5.4% to 5.2%
Unadjusted U-6 was Down from 9.6% to 8.9%
Labor Force Participation unchanged at 61.7%
Unadjusted Employment rose from 146.544 million to 146.856 million

The Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation program, which extends unemployment benefits by up to 24 weeks for those who have exhausted regular unemployment aid, and the $300 weekly supplement to state unemployment benefits, are due to expire on September 6. This may be the motivation some unemployed individuals needed to get back to work. Many have complained that the government assistance was paying certain people at the lower end of the payscale more to stay home than they could earn by going to work.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 235,000 in August, and the unemployment rate declined by 0.2 percentage point to 5.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. So far this year, monthly job growth has averaged 586,000. In August, notable job gains occurred in professional and business services, transportation and warehousing, private education, manufacturing, and other services. Employment in retail trade declined over the month.

But looking at the CES report we see…

Originally the BLS reported 146.470 for July which they adjusted to 146.544 million. For August they are currently saying employment is 146.856 million which is actually an increase of 386,000 jobs based on their original estimates or an increase of 312,000 based on their updated numbers.

June Employment and Unemployment Both Up

July 3, 2021 by Tim McMahon

Highlights from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) employment / unemployment report for June released on July 2^nd.

Unadjusted U-3 was UP from 5.5% to 6.1%
Adjusted U-3 was UP from 5.8% to 5.9%
Unadjusted U-6 was UP from 9.7% to 10.1%
Labor Force Participation unchanged at 61.6%
Unadjusted Employment rose from 145.385 million to 146.517 million

April Unemployment Report “Disappointing”

May 10, 2021 by Tim McMahon

Highlights from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) employment / unemployment report for April released on May 7^th.

Unadjusted U-3 was Down from 6.2% to 5.7%
Adjusted U-3 was Up from 6.0% to 6.1%
Unadjusted U-6 was Down from 10.9% to 9.9%
Labor Force Participation rose from 61.5% to 61.7%
Unadjusted Employment rose from 143.309 million to 144.398

MSN classified this unemployment report as “disappointing” and the “greatest test yet of President Biden’s strategy to revive the pandemic economic recovery“.
There has been speculation that expanded unemployment benefits are making people reluctant to renter the labor market since generous unemployment benefits are more than they earn at minimum wage jobs. To counteract this, states like Montana are canceling Federal COVID unemployment benefits in an effort to encourage people to go back to work.

According to CNBC: “Montana opts to end $300 unemployment boost. Other states may, too.”

CNBC KEY POINTS:

Montana Gov. Greg Gianforte, a Republican, is ending participation in federal programs that expanded and raised unemployment benefits on June 27.
The American Rescue Plan, a $1.9 trillion Covid relief bill President Joe Biden signed in March, offered them through Labor Day.
Gianforte is instead offering a $1,200 return-to-work bonus to address a labor shortage. Some experts question the move.

Buried in the middle of the article is this quote:

“Montana is turning down expanded federal benefits to address a “severe workforce shortage,” Gianforte said. The state’s labor force is 10,000 workers smaller than before the pandemic and its 3.8% unemployment rate is near pre-Covid lows.

So despite the fact that “Some ‘experts’ question the move” unemployment levels are not “disappointing” in Montana at least, in fact, quite the opposite… they are having trouble finding workers.

March Unemployment Shows a Slight Improvement

April 3, 2021 by Tim McMahon

Highlights from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) employment / unemployment report for March released on April 2^nd.

Unadjusted U-3 was Down from 6.6% to 6.2%
Adjusted U-3 was Down from 6.2% to 6.0%
Unadjusted U-6 was Down from 11.6% to 10.9%
Labor Force Participation rose from 61.4% to 61.5%
Unadjusted Employment rose from 142.077 million to 143.400 million

February Employment Shows Improvement in Leisure and Hospitality

March 6, 2021 by Tim McMahon

Highlights from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) employment / unemployment report for February released on March 5^th.

Unadjusted U-3 was Down from 6.8% to 6.6%
Adjusted U-3 was Down from 6.3% to 6.2%
Unadjusted U-6 was Down from 12.0% to 11.6%
Labor Force Participation held steady at 61.4%
Unadjusted Employment rose from 140.948 million to 141.926 million