BLS

December 2022 Employment Report

January 7, 2023 by Tim McMahon

Is Employment Up or Down?

Unadjusted Employment fell from 155.015 million to 154.771
Labor Force Participation rose from 62.2% to 62.3%
Adjusted U-3 fell from 3.6% to 3.5%
Unadjusted U-3 fell from 3.4% to 3.3%
Unadjusted U-6 was unchanged at 6.4%

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for December on January 6^th2023.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 223,000 in December, and the unemployment rate edged down to 3.5 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, health care, construction, and social assistance… The unemployment rate edged down to 3.5 percent in December and has remained in a narrow range of 3.5 percent to 3.7 percent since March.”

In addition, the BLS posted the following note:
“Seasonally adjusted household survey data have been revised using updated seasonal adjustment factors…”
They will also be making further annual adjustments next month.

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs” rather than looking at the unadjusted results.

Looking at the unadjusted Current Employment Statistics program (formerly called the Establishment Survey report), we see…
Originally, the BLS reported employment of 154.990 million for November, which they adjusted up to 155.015 million. So, 25,000 additional jobs appeared for November.

The current estimate for December is 154.771 million, which is down 219,000 from the original November number and down 244,000 from the revised numbers.

According to the BLS’ unadjusted Current Population Survey (CPS), the labor force was 164.224 million in December. Of those, 158.872 million were employed, and 5.352 million were unemployed. November CPS employment was 158.749 million, so according to the Current Population Survey, employment increased.

So one set of numbers shows an increase in employment while the other shows a decrease. ADP says mostly up.

ADP^® National Employment Report

According to ADP, In collaboration with Stanford Digital Economy Lab, employment was up from November to December.

Private employers added 235,000 jobs in December

Job resurgence was seen in the last two months of 2022, led by consumer-facing service industries. Hiring was strong across small and medium establishments, while large establishments saw a drop in employment of 151,000 jobs.

ADP also lists increases by “firm size”.

As we can see, small and medium-sized companies are still hiring, while large corporations are downsizing.

December 2022 Employment by Sector

The employment “bubble chart” is a quick and easy way to see how each sector performs on a seasonally adjusted basis. The Bubble’s Size tells us the total Employment for that industry (i.e., larger bubbles mean more people are employed in that sector).

The bubble’s location on the chart tells us that there has been a change in Employment Levels over the most recent month… A bubble further to the right indicates larger job growth. A bubble’s vertical location on the chart shows the average industry salary.

In November, Leisure and Hospitality, Education, Construction, Manufacturing, and “Other” were the big gainers, while Retail was the big loser.

Average Weekly Wages Fell in December

$1,125.73 in December, $1,129.01 in November, $1,124.01 in October , $1,119.87 in September, $1116.42 in August, $1,116.54 in July, $1,106.76, in June, $1,105.47 in May and $1,102.01 in April, and $1,086.46 in December 2021. [Read more…] about December 2022 Employment Report

November Jobs Report

December 2, 2022 by Tim McMahon

Employment Up – Unemployment Unchanged

Unadjusted Employment rose from 154.416 million to 154.990
Labor Force Participation is Down from 62.2% to 62.1%
Adjusted U-3 was unchanged at 3.7%
Unadjusted U-3 was unchanged at 3.4%
Unadjusted U-6 was Up from 6.3% to 6.4%

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for November on December 2^nd.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 263,000 in November, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7 percent. Notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, health care, and government. Employment declined in retail trade and in
transportation and warehousing. The November gain in nonfarm payroll employment was roughly in line with average growth over the prior 3 months (+282,000). Monthly job growth thus far in 2022 has averaged 392,000, compared with 562,000 per month in 2021.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs” from the “Household Survey” rather than looking at the results reported by actual companies in the BLS “Establishment Survey”.

Looking at the Establishment Survey report, we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 154.369 million for October, which they adjusted up to 154.416 million. So, 47,000 additional jobs appeared for October.

November gained an additional 574,000 jobs bringing the total up to 154.990 million.

ADP^® National Employment Report

According to ADP, in collaboration with Stanford Digital Economy Lab

Private employers added 127,000 jobs in November

Job creation slowed by the most since January 2021, led by construction and other interest rate-sensitive sectors. Consumer-facing segments – including health care and hospitality – were bright spots.

ADP also lists increases by “firm size”.

Last month (October) ADP posted these changes…

For November, the numbers definitely look worse, with virtually all the gains in mid-sized companies. People are becoming more risk-averse, so fewer small companies are being started. At some point, when jobs are scarce, starting your own business becomes the only option, so small company creation increases again. :

November 2022 Employment by Sector

In November, Leisure and Hospitality, Education, Construction, Manufacturing, and “Other” were the big gainers, while Retail was the big loser.

Average Weekly Wages Rose

$1,129.01 in November, $1,124.01 in October , $1,119.87 in September, $1116.42 in August, $1,116.54 in July, $1,106.76, in June, $1,105.47 in May and $1,102.01 in April, and $1,086.46 in December 2021. Surprisingly, Retail was the big loser, which is unusual for this time of year. [Read more…] about November Jobs Report

October 2022 BLS Employment Report

November 5, 2022 by Tim McMahon

Employment Up – Unemployment Also Up?

Unadjusted Employment rose from 153.197 million to 154.369
Labor Force Participation is Down from 62.3% to 62.2%
Adjusted U-3 was Up from 3.5% to 3.7%
Unadjusted U-3 was Up from 3.3% to 3.4%
Unadjusted U-6 was Down from 6.4% to 6.3%

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for October on November 4^th.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 261,000 in October, and the unemployment rate rose to 3.7 percent. Notable job gains occurred in health care, professional and technical services, and manufacturing. Monthly job growth has averaged 407,000 thus
far in 2022, compared with 562,000 per month in 2021.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs” from the “Household Survey” rather than looking at the results reported by actual companies in the BLS “Establishment Survey”.

Looking at the Establishment Survey report, we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 153.073 million for September, which they adjusted up to 153.197 million. So, 124,000 additional jobs appeared for September.

October gained an additional 1,272,000 jobs bringing the total up to 154.369 million.

Initially, the market shot up under the news but as the day progressed the market lost most of its gains.

See November FED Announcement Rocks Stock Market for more market info.

ADP^® National Employment Report

According to ADP In collaboration with Stanford Digital Economy Lab

Private employers added 239,000 jobs in October

Employers created 239,000 jobs in October, up from a revised 192,000 in September as restaurants, retailers and the travel sector ramped up hiring in advance of the year-end holidays.

ADP also lists increases by “firm size”.

At some point, it may look like small-size firms (i.e. 1-19 employees) are increasing, while everything else is decreasing, but that could simply be the result of people starting companies because they can’t find any other jobs (although this isn’t currently the case). Last month, there were increases across the board. This month’s results were mixed.

Unemployment

Looking at the chart for unemployment, we see that despite the increase in the number of people employed unemployment still ticked upward slightly.

Employment –Establishment Survey

Looking at the chart for employment, we see that current employment (154.369 million) is now above the 2019 peak (153.095 million) although the civilian population is 5 million higher now.

See Current Employment for more info.

September Unemployment Falls… Dragging Market Down

October 8, 2022 by Tim McMahon

Employment Up – Unemployment Down

Unadjusted Employment rose from 152.642 million to 153.073
Labor Force Participation is Down from 62.4% to 62.3%
Adjusted U-3 was Down from 3.7% to 3.5%
Unadjusted U-3 was Down from 3.8% to 3.3%
Unadjusted U-6 was Down from 7.0% to 6.4%

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for September on October 7^th.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 263,000 in September, and the unemployment rate edged down to 3.5 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality and in health care.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs” from the “Household Survey” rather than looking at the results reported by actual companies in the BLS “Establishment Survey”.

Looking at the Establishment Survey report, we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 152.572 million for August, which they adjusted up to 152.642 million. So, 70,000 additional jobs appeared for August.

September gained an additional 431,000 jobs bringing the total up to 153.073 million.

Normally this would be good news, but perversely the market was hoping for a bad report which would indicate that the FED could cut back on its tightening.
A good September 2022 Unemployment report means inflation is not yet under control, so the FED will continue aggressively tightening.

According to Bloomberg:
“The US labor market stayed strong in September as the unemployment rate unexpectedly returned to an historic low, leaving the inflation-phobic Federal Reserve on course to deliver yet another aggressive interest-rate hike.”

In response, the NYSE lost just over 2% of its value on Friday after the release of the report.

However, just 4 days earlier, on Monday, the BLS had released its “Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey” for August, which in the minds of schizophrenic market analysts, appeared to indicate that the Labor market might possibly be softening just a little, and the market used that as an excuse to rally. So the NYSE opened the week at 13,472… rallied to 14,340… then fell back to 13,798 for the week. (Actually, a 2.4% net gain for the week).

NOTE: The reason we look at the NYSE rather than the more commonly quoted DOW is breadth. The NYSE covers the vast majority of U.S. stocks rather than just a few major ones covered by the DOW.

ADP^® National Employment Report

According to ADP In collaboration with Stanford Digital Economy Lab

Businesses created 208,000 jobs in September, up from a revised 185,000 in August, as schools reopened and pandemic concerns receded. But while job growth is stable, it remains below the recent three-month average.

In other words, jobs are still growing but not as fast as they have been. Despite this slowing of job growth and the FED tightening, ADP’s Chief Economist Nela Richardson believes jobs will continue to grow.

ADP also lists increases by “firm size”.

Establishment Survey Employment

Looking at the chart for employment, we see that current employment (153.073 million) is just a hair under the 2019 peak (153.095 million) although the civilian population is almost 5 million higher now. So despite all the talk of the strong employment situation, there is a slight disconnect.

See Current Employment for more info.

August: Employment and Labor Force Participation Up

September 3, 2022 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for August on September 2^nd.

Unadjusted Employment rose from 152.263 million to 152.572
Labor Force Participation Up from 62.1% to 62.4%
Adjusted U-3 was Up from 3.5% to 3.7%
Unadjusted U-3 was Unchanged at 3.8%
Unadjusted U-6 was Down from 7.2% to 7.0%

Looking Back:

In June, we reported a few Early Indicators of a brewing recession.

Labor Force Participation Down from 62.3% to 62.2%
Upturn in Uneducated Unemployment
Rising Unemployment among the newly unemployed
Average Weekly Hours among manufacturing workers falling

Since then, the BLS has changed the employment numbers for June from an initial 152.692 million for June. They adjusted down to 152.634 million in July and then down to 152.607 in August. So, a total of 85,000 jobs disappeared for June.

July’s Indicators

Originally they reported employment of 152.249 million jobs for July. They have adjusted that to 152.263 million , which is an increase of 14,000 jobs. For August, they are currently reporting 152.572 million, an increase of 323,000 based on their original estimates or an increase of 309,000 based on their updated numbers.

But… August employment is still below June’s employment no matter which number for June they use.

On the Bright Side

Labor Force Participation is Up to 62.4% where it peaked in March.

In the News:

Trying to put a good spin on rising unemployment US. News says:

Lower US Job Gain in August Could Aid Fed’s Inflation Fight

The NY Times is beating the same drum:

Job Market Cooled but Was Still Strong in August

The monthly employment report suggested that the Federal Reserve might be able to tame inflation without causing a recession.

CNN follows along:

Yes, the unemployment rate rose. Here’s why that’s good news

CNBC focuses on race instead:

While all demographic groups saw the unemployment rate tick up slightly, it rose at a sharper pace for both Hispanic and Black workers to 4.5% and 6.4%, respectively.

ADP National Employment Report

In addition to the BLS, we can look at the Jobs Report generated by private companies like ADP Research Institute. According to their numbers, August employment was up 132,000 not the 300,000+ that the BLS reports.

Private employers created 132,000 jobs in August, a step down from the month before, when the economy created nearly 270,000 jobs. Payroll growth also slowed in July when compared to June of this year.

About the ADP Report:

The ADP National Employment Report is an independent estimate of the change in U.S. private sector employment and pay derived from actual, anonymous payroll data of client companies served by ADP, a leading provider of human capital management solutions. The report is produced by ADP Research Institute in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab. The ADP National Employment Report is broadly distributed to the public each month, free of charge, as part of the company’s commitment to offering deeper insights of the U.S. labor market and providing businesses and governments with a source of credible and valuable information.

Current Employment

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 315,000 in August, and the unemployment rate rose to 3.7 percent. Notable job gains occurred in professional and business services, health care, and retail trade. Total nonfarm employment increased by 5.8 million over the year, as the labor market continued to recover from the job losses of the pandemic-induced recession. This growth brings total nonfarm employment 240,000 above its February 2020 level before the onset of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs” from the “Household Survey” rather than looking at the results reported by actual companies in the BLS “Establishment Survey”.

Employment is approaching the 2019 peak, although the population is now several million higher.

Historical Employment with Recessions