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Unemployment Report for October 2023

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The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for October on November 3rd, 2023.

Unadjusted U3 Unemployment Unchanged

  • Adjusted U-3 was 3.9% up from 3.8% in September
  • Unadjusted U-3 was 3.6% unchanged
  • Unadjusted U-6 was 6.8% up from 6.7%
  • Labor Force Participation was 62.7% down from 62.8% in September
  • Unadjusted Employment rose from 156.918 to 157.984 million

Summary:
Total Employed increased in October, Unemployment was little changed, and Labor Force Participation was down slightly.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 150,000 in October, and the unemployment rate
changed little at 3.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains
occurred in health care, government, and social assistance. Employment declined in manufacturing
due to strike activity…

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (3.7 percent), adult women
(3.3 percent), teenagers (13.2 percent), Whites (3.5 percent), Blacks (5.8 percent), Asians (3.1
percent), and Hispanics (4.8 percent) showed little change in October.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 157.001 million for September which they adjusted to 156.918 million. So, they subtracted 83,000 jobs for September. They are currently reporting 157.984 million jobs for October which is actually an increase of 983,000 jobs based on their original estimates or an increase of 1,066,000 based on their updated numbers. But despite a supposed million plus new jobs the unemployment rate is virtually unchanged (and LFPR fell)?

BLS Source

Current Unemployment Rate Chart

Adjusted Unemployment is slightly above the pre-COVID 2019 cyclical lows of 3.5% as well as above the lows made earlier this year. Current levels are still within the “Green Zone”.

Seasonally Adj U-3 Unemployment Rate for Oct-23

 

[Read more…] about Unemployment Report for October 2023

October Unemployment Report for September 2023

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The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for September on October 6th, 2023.

Adjusted U3 Unemployment Unchanged

Adj U3 Icon 3-8 unchg

  • Adjusted U-3 was 3.8% unchanged from August
  • Unadjusted U-3 was 3.6% down from 3.9%
  • Unadjusted U-6 was 6.7% down from 7.2%
  • Labor Force Participation was 62.8% unchanged
  • Unadjusted Employment rose from 156.416 to 157.001 million

Summary:
Despite the fact that the Seasonally Adjusted U3 unemployment rate was unchanged,
the UNADJUSTED U3 Rate was down… as is typical for this time of year.
Total Employed increased from 156.416 million in August to 157.001 million in September.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 336,000 in September, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality; government; health care; professional, scientific, and technical services; and social assistance…

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (3.8 percent), adult women (3.1 percent), teenagers (11.6 percent), Whites (3.4 percent), Blacks (5.7 percent), Asians (2.8 percent), and Hispanics (4.6 percent) showed little or no change in September.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 156.302 million for August which they adjusted to 156.416 million. So they added 114,000 jobs for August. They are currently reporting 157.001 million jobs for September which is actually an increase of 699,000 jobs based on their original estimates or an increase of 585,000 based on their updated numbers. 

BLS Source

Current Employment Rate Chart

Adjusted Unemployment is slightly above the pre-COVID 2019 cyclical lows of 3.5% as well as above the lows made earlier this year. Current levels are still within the “Green Zone”.

Seasonally Adj U-3 Unemployment Rate for Sep-23

[Read more…] about October Unemployment Report for September 2023

August 2023 Unemployment Report

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The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for August on September 1st 2023.

August Unemployment Up Slightly

Adjusted U3 Unemployment 3.8%

  • Adjusted U-3 was 3.8% up from 3.5%
  • Unadjusted U-3 was 3.9% up from 3.8%
  • Unadjusted U-6 was 7.2% up from 7.1%
  • Labor Force Participation was 62.8% up from 62.6%
  • Unadjusted Employment rose from 156.034 to 156.302 million

Summary:
Despite the fact that the adjusted U3 unemployment rate was up,
slightly more people were working in August than in July.
Total Employed went up from 156.034 million in July to 156.302 million in August.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 187,000 in August, and the unemployment rate rose to 3.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in health care, leisure and hospitality, social assistance, and construction. Employment in transportation and warehousing declined.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 155.126 million for July which they adjusted to 156.034 million. So they subtracted 92,000 jobs for July. They are currently reporting 156.302 million jobs for August which is actually an increase of 176,000 jobs based on their original estimates or an increase of 268,000 based on their updated numbers.

BLS Source

Current Employment Rate Chart

Adjusted Unemployment is slightly above the pre-COVID 2019 cyclical lows of 3.5%. Current levels are still within the “Green Zone”.

Seasonally Adj U-3 Unemployment Rate for Aug -23

 

[Read more…] about August 2023 Unemployment Report

July 2023 Unemployment Down

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The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for July on August 4th 2023.

Adjusted Unemployment down Slightly

Current Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment

  • Adjusted U-3 was 3.5% down from 3.6%
  • Unadjusted U-3 was 3.8% unchanged
  • Unadjusted U-6 was 7.1% down from 7.2%
  • Labor Force Participation unchanged at 62.6%
  • Unadjusted Employment fell from 156.945 to 156.126 million

Summary:
Despite the fact that the adjusted U3 unemployment rate was down, and they claim more people were working
there were actually fewer people working in July than in June.
Total Employed went down from 156.945 million in June to only 156.126 million in July.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 187,000 in July, and the unemployment rate changed little at 3.5 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, social assistance, financial activities, and wholesale trade.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Employment Statistics Program (Formerly the Establishment Survey report) we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 155.963 million for June, which they adjusted to 156.945 million. So they subtracted 18,000 jobs for June. They are reporting 156.126 million jobs for July which is actually a decrease of 837,000 jobs based on their original estimates or a decrease of 819,000 based on their updated numbers. 

BLS Source

Current Employment Rate Chart

Adjusted Unemployment is at the pre-COVID 2019 cyclical lows of 3.5%. We’ve been saying that “typically, March or April has one of the lowest unemployment rates for the year, so we could see a slight increase from here without an actual deterioration of the labor market.”  And that is what happened before dropping slightly in July.  Current levels are still within the “Green Zone”.

Seasonally Adj U-3 Unemployment Rate 8-23

[Read more…] about July 2023 Unemployment Down

June 2023 Employment at All-Time High

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The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for June on July 7th 2023.

Adjusted Unemployment down Slightly

Adj U3 Icon 3-6

  • Adjusted U-3 was 3.6% down from 3.7%
  • Unadjusted U-3 was 3.8% up from 3.4%
  • Unadjusted U-6 was 7.2% Up from 6.4%
  • Labor Force Participation unchanged at 62.6%
  • Unadjusted Employment rose from 156.266 to 156.963 million

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 209,000 in June, and the unemployment rate changed little at 3.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in government, health care, social assistance, and construction… Both the unemployment rate, at 3.6 percent, and the number of unemployed persons, at 6.0 million, changed little in June. The unemployment rate has ranged from 3.4 percent to 3.7 percent since March 2022.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 156.306 million for May which they adjusted to 156.266 million. So, they subtracted 40,000 jobs for May. They are now reporting 156.963 million jobs for June which is actually an increase of 657,000 jobs based on their original estimates or an increase of 697,000 based on their updated numbers.

Current Employment Rate Chart

Adjusted Unemployment is slightly above the pre-COVID 2019 cyclical lows of 3.5%. We’ve been saying that “typically, March or April has one of the lowest unemployment rates for the year, so we could see a slight increase from here without an actual deterioration of the labor market.”  And that is precisely what is happening.  Current levels are still within the “Green Zone”.

Seasonally Adj U-3 Unemployment Rate (Colors)

[Read more…] about June 2023 Employment at All-Time High

Yet Another Month of Questionable Federal Jobs Data as 310,000 Fewer People Report Having Jobs

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The Bureau of Labor Statistic (BLS) released new jobs data on Friday. According to the report, seasonally adjusted total nonfarm jobs rose 339,000 jobs in May, well above forecasts. The unemployment rate rose slightly from 3.4 percent to 3.7 percent (month over month).

Headlines in the mainstream media declared the headline employment data to be evidence of very strong job growth and economic success. According to Politico, the latest jobs numbers are evidence of a “remarkable resilience of President Joe Biden’s economy” and NPR declared the job market to be “sizzling hot.”

Yet, May appears to be yet another month in which it seems nearly every economic indicator except the payroll jobs data points to an economic slowdown. The Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing index is in recession territory. The Empire State Manufacturing Survey is, too. The Leading Indicators index keeps looking worse. The yield curve points to recession. Even Federal Reserve staffers, who generally take an implausibly rosy view of the economy, predict recession in 2023. Individual bankruptcy filings were up 23 percent in May. Temp jobs were down, year-over-year, which often indicates approaching recession.

So how do we square all this with yet another jobs report that claims to tell us that the job market is the best it’s been in decades?

Well, a lot of the jobs data isn’t actually very good. The headlines have focused on the so-called Establishment Survey which is a survey of employers and shows only the number of positions, not the number of employed persons. The Household survey, on the other hand, surveys people.

The Household survey over the past two years has not shown nearly as much job growth as the Establishment Survey.

Specifically, we find that since 2022, the Establishment Survey and the Household Survey have ceased to follow a similar trend, with a sizable gap forming between the two surveys. In fact, over the past two years, the two surveys show a gap of 2.2 million: Job Growth since Jan 2021

Moreover, in May, while the Establishment Survey showed a gain of 339,000 jobs month-over-month, the Household Survey showed a loss of 310,000 employed persons. That’s a gap of more than 600,000. Looking at month-to-month changes, we can also see how the two surveys have diverged since April 2022. [Read more…] about Yet Another Month of Questionable Federal Jobs Data as 310,000 Fewer People Report Having Jobs

May Employment and Unemployment Up?

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The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for May on June 2nd 2023.

Unemployment up Slightly 

Adj U3 Icon 3-7 up

  • Adjusted U-3 was 3.7% up from 3.4%
  • Unadjusted U-3 was 3.4% up from 3.1%
  • Unadjusted U-6 was 6.4% Up from 6.1%
  • Labor Force Participation unchanged at 62.6%
  • Unadjusted Employment rose from 155.386 to 156.303 million

 

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 339,000 in May, and the unemployment rate rose by 0.3 percentage point to 3.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.
Job gains occurred in professional and business services, government, health care, construction, transportation and warehousing, and social assistance.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Establishment Survey report, we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 155.337 million for April which they adjusted to 155.386 million. So they added 49,000 jobs for April. They are reporting 156.306 million jobs for May which is actually an increase of 969,000 jobs based on their original estimates or an increase of 920,000 based on their updated numbers. 

Current Employment Rate Chart

Adjusted Unemployment is slightly above the pre-COVID 2019 cyclical lows of 3.5%. We’ve been saying that “typically, March or April has one of the lowest unemployment rates for the year, so we could see a slight increase from here without an actual deterioration of the labor market.”  And that is precisely what is happening.  Current levels are within the “Green Zone”.

Seasonally Adj U-3 Unemployment Rate

[Read more…] about May Employment and Unemployment Up?

February 2023 Unemployment Report

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The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for February on March 10th 2023.

Employment Up and Unemployment Up? 

Adj U3 Icon 3-6 up

 

  • Unadjusted Employment rose from 152.836 million to 153.955 million
  • Labor Force Participation rose from 62.4% to 62.5%
  • Adjusted U-3 rose from 3.4% to 3.6%
  • Unadjusted U-3 unchanged at 3.9%
  • Unadjusted U-6 fell from 7.4% to 7.3%

 

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 311,000 in February, and the unemployment rate edged up to 3.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, retail trade, government, and health care. Employment declined in information and in transportation and warehousing.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report, we see…

Originally the BLS reported employment of 152.844 million for January, which they adjusted down slightly to 152.836 million.

The current estimate for February is 153.955 million which is up 1.11 million from the original number and up 1.12 million from the revised numbers. According to the BLS, this increase didn’t change the unadjusted U-3 number and actually resulted in an increase in unemployment on a seasonally adjusted basis.

ADP® National Employment Report

According to ADP In collaboration with Stanford Digital Economy Lab, private employment was up from January to February by 242,000.

ADP: Private employers added 242,000 jobs in February

Nela Richardson Feb 2023

 

ADP also lists increases by “firm size” and they posted this comment:

  • Job gains are solid and wage growth remains elevated. A particular area of weakness is with small establishments, which shed jobs every month since August 2022.

But their December report showed small businesses gaining.

December Changes:

ADP Change by Establishment Size

February Changes:

 

Change by Est Size for Feb 2023

ADP Also Tracks Salary Changes:

[Read more…] about February 2023 Unemployment Report

January Employment / Unemployment Report

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The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for January on February 3rd 2023.

Employment Down or Up? – Unemployment Down? 

Adj U3 Icon 3-4 dn

 

  • Unadjusted Employment fell from 155.349 million to 152.844
  • Labor Force Participation rose from 62.3% to 62.4%
  • Adjusted U-3 fell from 3.5% to 3.4%
  • Unadjusted U-3 ROSE from 3.3% to 3.9%
  • Unadjusted U-6 ROSE from 6.4% to 7.4%

 

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 517,000 in January, and the unemployment rate changed little at 3.4 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job growth was widespread, led by gains in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, and health care. Employment also increased in government, partially reflecting the return of workers from a strike.”

In addition, the BLS posted the following note:
 “Establishment survey data have been revised as a result of the annual benchmarking process, the NAICS 2022 conversion, and the updating of seasonal adjustment factors.| Also, household survey data for January 2023 reflect updated population estimates.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report, we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 154.771 million for December, which they adjusted up to 155.349 million. So, 578,000 additional jobs appeared for December.
I don’t know if it’s just me but, an additional half million jobs seems a bit exceptional, but perhaps in government work it’s just a rounding error.

The current estimate for January is 152.844 million which is down 1.9 million from the original number and down 2.5 million from the revised numbers. But after Seasonally Adjustment they report a half million increase! Typically, employment does fall off in January so some seasonal adjustment is justified but the half million increase in December seems a bit excessive.
We will see what happens next month.

ADP® National Employment Report

According to ADP In collaboration with Stanford Digital Economy Lab employment was up from December but by about 1/5th as much as the BLS reported. But if employment is up, why is the UNADJUSTED U3 and U6 down drastically? Could it be the extra 1.1 million people the BLS added to the Civilian population? December Civilian Population 264.844 million. January Civilian Population 265.962 million.

ADP: Private employers added 106,000 jobs in January

  • Employment was soft during our Jan. 12 reference week as the U.S. was hit with extreme weather. California was coping with record floods and back-to-back storms delivered ice and snow to the central and eastern U.S.

Nela Richardson January 2023ADP also lists increases by “firm size”.

Last month small and medium-sized companies were hiring while large corporations are downsizing. This month it was almost the opposite.

December Changes:

ADP Change by Establishment Size

January Changes:

Change by Est Size for January 2023

January 2023 Employment by Sector

The employment “bubble chart” is a quick and easy way to see how each sector performs on a seasonally adjusted basis. The Bubble’s Size tells us the total Employment for that industry (i.e., larger bubbles mean more people are employed in that sector).

The bubble’s location on the chart tells us that there has been a change in Employment Levels over the most recent month… A bubble further to the right indicates larger job growth. A bubble’s vertical location on the chart shows the average industry salary.

Average Weekly Wages Rose in January

Date Average Weekly Wage
January 2023 $1,146.14
December 2022 $1,125.73
November 2022 $1,129.01
October 2022 $1,124.01
September 2022 $1,119.87
August 2022 $1116.42
July 2022 $1,116.54
June 2022 $1,106.76
May 2022 $1,105.47
April 2022 $1,102.01
December 2021 $1,086.46

[Read more…] about January Employment / Unemployment Report

December 2022- Employment and Unemployment by State

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The Bureau of Labor Statistics released its employment report (broken down by state) for the month of December 2022.

The lowest jobless rate was in Utah at 2.2 percent. North and South Dakota had the next lowest rates at 2.3 percent each. Alaska at 4.3%, and Pennsylvania at 3.9% set record lows since the BLS began recording (by state) in 1976. Nevada had the highest unemployment rate, 5.2 percent. 14 states had unemployment rates lower than the U.S. average of 3.5 percent. Washington D.C. and 11 states had rates higher than average, and 25 states had rates that were not appreciably different from that of the nation.

In December, seven states had over-the-month unemployment rate increases, the largest of which was in Nevada (+0.3 percentage point). Five states had over-the-month decreases, the largest of which was in Maryland (-0.3 percentage point). Thirty-eight states and the District of Columbia had jobless rates that were not notably different from those of a month earlier, though some had changes that were at least as large numerically as the significant changes.

unemployment by State Dec 2022
[Read more…] about December 2022- Employment and Unemployment by State