Tim McMahon, Editor of UnemploymentData.com

My grandfather lived through the Hyperinflation in Weimar, Germany--to say he was an original “gold bug” would be an understatement. I began reading his “hard money” newsletters at the age of 16 and the dividends from gold stocks helped put me through college. I began publishing the Financial Trend Forecaster paper newsletter in 1995 upon the death of James Moore editor of Your Window into the Future and the creator of the Moore Inflation Predictor©. FTF specializes in trends in the stock market, gold, inflation and bonds. In January of 2003, I began publishing InflationData.com to specialize in all forms of information about the nature of Inflation. In 2009, we added Elliott Wave University to help teach you the principles of Elliott Wave analysis. In January 2013, we began publishing OptioMoney. Connect with Tim on Google+.

November Unemployment- Another Banner Month

December 7, 2019 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for November on December 6^th.

Unemployment returns to 50-year lows. The “Seasonally Adjusted” Unemployment Rate for November fell from 3.6% in October to 3.5% despite the media’s narrative that many employers are either delaying hiring until a breakthrough in the U.S.-China trade war is reached.

November Jobs Report Smashes Expectations Again

Unadjusted U-3 was Unchanged at 3.3%!
Adjusted U-3 was down slightly from 3.6% to 3.5%!
Unadjusted U-6 was Unchanged at 6.5%!
Labor Force Participation retreated slightly from 63.3% to 63.2%.
Unadjusted Employment Up by approx. 660,000 jobs.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 266,000 in November, and the unemployment rate, at 3.5 percent, was little changed. Notable job gains occurred in health care and in professional and technical services. Manufacturing employment increased as workers in motor vehicles and parts returned from a strike. Employment in health care increased by 45,000… Employment rose by 31,000 in professional and technical services… Employment in leisure and hospitality +45,000… Employment in transportation and warehousing +16,000… Employment in financial activities +13,000…

Of course, he is talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs” from the “Current Population Survey (CPS)”
rather than looking at the results reported by actual companies in their “Current Employment Statistics survey (CES)”
Originally the BLS reported 152,962 million jobs for October and they added 40,000 jobs to that estimate. Currently they are estimating 153.624 million jobs for November which is an increase of 662,000 jobs over what they originally reported last month. So what he is actually saying is that there were 266,000 more jobs created in November than is normal for this time of year!

Returning striking General Motors autoworkers added about 30,000 jobs in November, a one-time bounce-back that followed a 30,000 decline in October, when the GM strikers weren’t counted as employed. But even without that 30,000 Manufacturing still added 24,000 additional jobs!

Just days ago, the media and Moody’s Chief Economist Mark Zandi were trying to paint a grim picture for the economy. Zandi told CNBC there was trouble brewing in the jobs market “Manufacturers, commodity producers and retailers are shedding jobs. Job openings are declining, and if job growth slows any further unemployment will increase.”
Instead of a Decrease in jobs we got a massive INCREASE. And the futures market spiked upward on the good news.

For more info see our Current Unemployment Chart and Current U.S. Employment Chart commentary.

Tips For Making Yourself More Employable

December 5, 2019 by Tim McMahon

If you’re getting interviews but no offers in today’s low unemployment environment something needs to change. Here are some tips to make you more employable.

Work On Your Interview Technique

It can take hard work, effort and stepping out of your comfort zone, but this is what you have to do to make yourself more employable. You may know you can do the job but there is more to it than skill and unfortunately it is necessary to be able to present yourself appropriately in the eyes of others. And hopefully, this will put you on the path to happiness in a career that interests you.

One of the biggest reasons that people struggle to land a job is their interview technique. This is understandable because it is a highly stressful situation and one which causes many people to feel overly anxious. This is why you need to practice your technique, read advice online, prepare for each interview and always ask for feedback.

Network Constantly

It is a smart idea to [Read more…] about Tips For Making Yourself More Employable

Things to Consider Before Starting Your Own Business

December 3, 2019 by Tim McMahon

Starting a business is a popular dream among those who wish to break from the day to day drudgery their current job. If you’ve reached a point in life where you’re interested in taking a chance on your entrepreneurial dreams, there are many factors to consider. Here are some things to think about before you quit your day job.

Ideas are “a Dime a Dozen”

Only 1-in-60 people who dream of starting their own business actually follow through. Many of the other 59 ideas are good but good ideas aren’t the only key to starting a successful business. More important than a good idea is dedication and “follow-through-ability” i.e. persistence. Starting a business is hard work. Do you have the persistence and dedication necessary to get it done… no matter what? Your “million-dollar idea” isn’t worth anything until it actually makes a million dollars. A good idea with mediocre execution won’t get anywhere… BUT a mediocre idea with great execution will still yield a viable business. Execution is everything.

Start Slow

No matter how profitable your business may eventually be, it pays to start slow. Trying to get big too quickly can result in problems. Start small and use that time to work out processes and systems that are scalable. Although early months or years with little cash flow can make things tough, they are a time for learning when the consequences of mistakes are small as well.

A safe route is to start slowly in your spare time. This way you can learn the ropes, build clientele, and you still have your income to fall back on. Once you are earning as much part-time as you are full-time you can easily tell your old boss good-bye.

Be Honest with Yourself

Many people attempt to start a business without carefully considering their strengths and weaknesses. Their friends encourage them but don’t honestly believe in the idea. They tell you “Yeah, I’d buy that but then when the time comes they have nothing but excuses. Like ideas, opinions are worthless unless they are willing to put their money where their mouth is. Get advice from unbiased parties before committing money to the project. That is why programs like Kickstarter and GoFundMe are so valuable. They show how many people are really willing to buy your product because they have committed real money.

Is There a Market?

Before any business can succeed, it must have [Read more…] about Things to Consider Before Starting Your Own Business

Tips for Finding a Job after Serving Jail Time

November 16, 2019 by Tim McMahon

Even a short jail sentence can be a disaster for someone’s personal and professional life. On top of the legal costs associated with exiting the penal system, most people who end up behind bars lose their job before they get out. Finding a new job can be challenging for those with an official record, but there are a few basic tips that can make the search a little easier.

Be Honest

Not all jobs require a background check, but it’s important for applicants to be honest with all the information you submit on official forms. That means you should answer truthfully when asked about a criminal record but it doesn’t necessarily mean you should volunteer the information if not asked directly. According to Joy Morrison who answered this question on Quora (and all the responses might be helpful) but she said, “I found I was by far harder on myself than what anyone else was. Some people may have questions about your crime and if you don’t mind answering them , do it. And be as honest as possible. Don’t sugar coat what you did and don’t try denying it either, they probably already know But just want to hear it from you. Also be prepared , people are curious about prison life and want to hear stories about it.”

It’s easy to get discouraged by frequent rejections, but there are plenty of employers who can and do hire people with imperfect criminal records.

Consider Contracting

Whether you need extra cash to catch up on rent, pay court costs or compensate for bail bonds, contracting work can be a great opportunity. Skilled and professional workers can find many opportunities for side gigs and self-employment in the right areas. It can be easier to find clients or customers without the need for a background check when working as a temporary contractor. Contracting on the side also allows for the potential of earning extra income on top of a full-time job.

Increase Your Hiring Value

Certification, training, experience and academic education are all ways applicants can [Read more…] about Tips for Finding a Job after Serving Jail Time

Industries Begging for Applicants

November 15, 2019 by Tim McMahon

It often feels like the job market is stagnant. You can send out hundreds of applications and never hear anything back. If you’re looking for a job, though, you might do better by looking into these four fields that are begging for new applicants.

Education

There is a definite shortage of teachers in the United States, with some schools turning towards long-term subs just to fill gaps in their scheduling. Depending on the school district, there are even bonuses offered for teachers in hard-to-recruit subjects like Math. While teachers have significant workloads, the field is fairly stable and there are plenty of chances to move within districts and even to new locations. This is one career that’s sure to be around for many years to come, but applicants are still in high demand. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Occupational Outlook Handbook, the median salary for a high school teacher was $60,320 in 2018. Middle School teachers made $58,600/ yr. and Kindergarten and Elementary School Teachers averaged $57,980 / yr.

https://youtu.be/wth4CiF9i9M

How to Become a Vet Tech: A Simple Career Guide

November 11, 2019 by Tim McMahon

Today, 84 million millennials house at least one pet. That makes it so almost 7 out of every 10 American homes own an animal.

In a lot of ways, a love for animals is what inspires people to pursue a career working with them. Do you know what one of the most emotionally rewarding animal-oriented careers is that you start pursuing today?

Becoming a veterinarian technician!

Thousands of people find themselves wondering how to become a vet tech annually. In this brief guide, we break down the steps that you’ll need to take to realize your dreams of working with animals in a medical setting and whether or not those dreams are a good fit for your sensibilities.

Step 1: Understand What a Vet Tech Does

You may have seen a vet tech at your local veterinary office and felt inspired to walk in their shoes. Before investing thousands of dollars in your education and hours of your time achieving that end, you must understand what a vet tech actually does.

Vet techs manage several important responsibilities in a veterinary setting. Core tasks that they handle include:

Taking X-rays
Giving vaccines and medications
Providing first-aid services
Restraining animals during treatment
Keeping records on animals
Educating pet owners on proper care
Preparing instruments for surgery
Administering anesthesia

There more tasks that a vet tech may be asked to tackle in the office. What’s important to note is that just about every task that a vet tech does could cost animals their lives if performed incorrectly.

Step 2: Weigh Responsibilities Against Compensation

Vet tech responsibilities carry a lot of pressure. Becoming a vet tech also requires a considerable amount of time and money since attaining a formalized education is a requirement.

Given those facts, before you figure out how to become a vet tech, you should decide if the job versus the compensation offered strikes you as acceptable.

A veterinary technician makes about

October Unemployment- Jobs Much Better Than Expected

November 2, 2019 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for October on November 1^st.

Unemployment is still near record lows. Although the “Seasonally Adjusted” Unemployment Rate for October ticked up from 3.5% in September to 3.6%. However, the unadjusted U-3 Unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.3%. This Jobs report was unexpectedly good despite counting 30,000 “unemployed” strikers at auto manufacturers.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 128,000 in October, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 3.6 percent. Notable employment gains occurred in food services and drinking places, social assistance, and financial activities. Within manufacturing, employment declined in motor vehicles and parts due to strike activity. Federal government employment was down, reflecting a drop in the number of temporary jobs for the 2020 Census.”

Experts had been predicting that the economy would add no more than 75,000 jobs. In fact, MarketWatch on Thursday told readers that
the report would be “a big dud” due to the impact of the General Motors strike on the overall numbers.
If it hadn’t been for the strike the October numbers would have been even better.

Of course, the Commissioner is talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs” from the “Current Population Survey (CPS)”
rather than looking at the results reported by actual companies in the BLS’ “Current Employment Statistics survey (CES)”
in reality, the BLS has done a lot of “Adjusting” over the last few months.
The original CES numbers the BLS reported for August was 151.517 million people employed in August
then later they adjusted it up to 151.607 million. And for September they originally reported there were 151.949 million employed
and currently they are reporting 152.962 million employed so that is an actual increase of 1.013 million NOT and adjusted increase of 128,000!
But in addition to “Seasonal Adjustment”, they adjusted September’s number up to 152.015 million
so the difference between September and October appears to be less than it actually was.

For more info see our Current Unemployment Chart and Current U.S. Employment Chart commentary:

October Jobs Report Smashes Expectations

Unadjusted U-3 was Unchanged at 3.3%!
Adjusted U-3 was up slightly from 3.5% to 3.6%!
Unadjusted U-6 was Unchanged at 6.5%!
Labor Force Participation hits levels not seen since 2013 at recent peak levels of 63.3%.
Unadjusted Employment Up
The unemployment rate for black Americans nudged lower to 5.4 percent, setting a new record,

Key factors in the BLS report were:
Employment in food services and drinking places rose by 48,000 over the month.
Financial activities employment rose by 15,000, with nearly half of the gain occurring in insurance carriers and related activities (+7,000).

Social assistance added 20,000 jobs in October, with most of the gain occurring in individual and family services.

Financial activities added 16,000 jobs.
Professional and business services added 22,000 jobs.

Health care added 15,000 jobs.

Manufacturing employment declined by 36,000 in October.
Employment in motor vehicles and parts manufacturing decreased
by 42,000, reflecting strike activity.

Benefits of Going Back to School Before Making a Big Career Change

October 21, 2019 by Tim McMahon

Making a big career change can be scary, but there are things you can do to become more successful. Going back to school is a common choice, especially among those who want to pursue a radically different line of work. We’ve looked at lots of ways to get into careers like IT without a college degree. But sometimes going back to college can help you to make your transition to a new career a little more successful.

Getting the Degree

While it’d be great to say that college is beneficial only for what you learn, the piece of paper that you get at the end of your studies can be quite valuable. Getting a degree can help to distinguish you from other job candidates and might even help you to qualify for more jobs. Having a degree can really change the way your job search works.

Building up New Skills

You can also spend time in college building up the new skills that are relevant for your new job. Learning the basic theories behind the tasks that you’ll do at work can help you learn how to make better decisions and improve your ability to accomplish your goals at your new job. Sometimes just getting a little more education can make the difference between success and failure.

Learning What’s out There

Going back to school doesn’t always mean [Read more…] about Benefits of Going Back to School Before Making a Big Career Change

September Unemployment Rate Hits 50-Year Low

October 5, 2019 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for September released on October 4^th. Unemployment is at record lows. According to the BLS, the “Seasonally Adjusted” Unemployment Rate for September fell to 3.5% after spending 3 months at 3.7%. The last time unemployment was this low was in December 1969 almost exactly 50 years ago.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“The unemployment rate declined by 0.2 percentage point to 3.5 percent in September, and nonfarm payroll employment increased by 136,000. Employment continued to trend up in health
care and in professional and business services… Health care employment rose by +39,000 in September… employment continued to trend up in professional and business services +34,000… Employment in transportation and warehousing edged up by +16,000… Government employment also continued to trend up in September +22,000…”

Of course, he is talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs” in reality last month the BLS reported there were 151.517 million people employed in August and this month they are reporting there are 151.949 million employed in September, so that is an increase of 432,000 jobs.

For more info see our Current Unemployment Chart and Current U.S. Employment Chart commentary:

Key September Employment and Unemployment Numbers

This month’s Unemployment report was full of positive news.

Adjusted U-3 Unemployment- 3.5% down from 3.7% June through August.
Unadjusted U-3 Unemployment- 3.3% down from 3.8% in August and 4.0% in July, it was 4.4% in January.
Unadjusted U-6 Unemployment- 6.5% down a whopping -0.8% from 7.3% in August.
Unadjusted Employment (Establishment Survey)- 151.949 up from the 151.517 million the BLS reported in August.
Labor Force Participation Rate- 63.2% unchanged from August but up from 63.0% in July, and 62.9% June.

Key factors in the BLS report were:

Health care employment increased by 39,000

Professional and business services increased by 34,000

Transportation and warehousing increased by 16,000

Government employment increased by 22,000 approximately 1,000 of those were related to the upcoming census.

Hispanic and African American unemployment are both at the lowest levels on record.

Tim McMahon, Editor of UnemploymentData.com

November Jobs Report Smashes Expectations Again

Work On Your Interview Technique

Network Constantly

Ideas are “a Dime a Dozen”

Start Slow

Be Honest with Yourself

Is There a Market?

Be Honest

Consider Contracting

Increase Your Hiring Value

Education

Becoming a veterinarian technician!

Step 1: Understand What a Vet Tech Does

Step 2: Weigh Responsibilities Against Compensation

October Jobs Report Smashes Expectations

Getting the Degree

Building up New Skills

Learning What’s out There

Key September Employment and Unemployment Numbers

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