Tim McMahon, Editor of UnemploymentData.com

My grandfather lived through the Hyperinflation in Weimar, Germany--to say he was an original “gold bug” would be an understatement. I began reading his “hard money” newsletters at the age of 16 and the dividends from gold stocks helped put me through college. I began publishing the Financial Trend Forecaster paper newsletter in 1995 upon the death of James Moore editor of Your Window into the Future and the creator of the Moore Inflation Predictor©. FTF specializes in trends in the stock market, gold, inflation and bonds. In January of 2003, I began publishing InflationData.com to specialize in all forms of information about the nature of Inflation. In 2009, we added Elliott Wave University to help teach you the principles of Elliott Wave analysis. In January 2013, we began publishing OptioMoney. Connect with Tim on Google+.

January 2022 Unemployment Up not DOWN as Reported

February 5, 2022 by Tim McMahon

January 2022 Unemployment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)

Adjusted U-3 was UP from 3.9% to 4.0%
Unadjusted U-3 was Up from 3.7% to 4.4%
Unadjusted U-6 was Up from 7.2% to 7.9%
Labor Force Participation Up from 61.9% 62.2%
Unadjusted Employment fell from 150.349 million to 147. 525 million

January 2022 Unemployment report: Establishment news media chose to put a positive spin on this month’s Jobs report focusing on the Bureau of Labor Statistics 467,000 jobs number. U.S. News says, US Economy Defies Omicron and Adds 467,000 Jobs in January. Long-time readers of this site will remember that this is a Seasonally Adjusted number based on the “Current Population Survey (CPS)” rather than looking at the results reported by actual companies in their “Current Employment Statistics survey (CES)”. As we explain below, more people were NOT employed in January than in December all that the adjusted number indicates is that fewer people lost their jobs in January than in a typical January. In actuality, there were 2.6 million fewer employed in January 2022 than in December 2021 and even the Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment rate INCREASED from 3.9% to 4.0% while UNADJUSTED unemployment increased even more.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 467,000 in January, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 4.0 percent. Employment growth continued in leisure and hospitality, in professional and business services, in retail trade, and in transportation and warehousing. Employment has increased by 19.1 million since April 2020 but is down by 2.9 million, or 1.9 percent, from its level before the onset of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic in February 2020. Monthly job growth averaged 555,000 in 2021.”

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs” from the “Current Population Survey (CPS)” rather than looking at the results reported by actual companies in their “Current Employment Statistics survey (CES)”

But looking at the CES report we see…
Originally the BLS reported 150.170 million for December which they adjusted to 150.349 million. For January they are reporting 147.525 million.
which is actually a decrease of 2,645,000 jobs based on their original estimates or a decrease of 2,824,000 based on their updated numbers. Typically January loses a significant number of jobs due to post-holiday layoffs so January employment decreases are not that unusual. But if we look at the adjusted numbers we see that even the seasonally adjusted unemployment was up suggesting that the layoff was a bit worse than usual.

December Unemployment Rates by State

February 1, 2022 by Tim McMahon

Unemployment rates fell in 42 states plus the District of Columbia from the previous month. Forty-Eight states along with D.C. had significantly lower unemployment rates than year-ago levels. Iowa and Maine’s unemployment rates have only fallen by -0.2% and -0.3% respectively.

California had the highest number of unemployed individuals at 1.238 million which gave them a 6.5% unemployment rate. The next highest number of unemployed was Texas with 712,828 unemployed and a 5.0% unemployment rate. Puerto Rico had the highest unemployment rate at 7.5%. And Nebraska had the lowest unemployment rate at 1.7%.

In the following chart, bubble size indicates the number of unemployed. The vertical axis indicates the percent change from a year ago, while the horizontal axis indicates the current unemployment rate (in percent).

State	Unemployment Rate	12-month % Change	Number of Unemployed
Alabama	3.1	-1.6	69,854
Alaska	5.7	-0.8	20,233
Arizona	4.1	-2.7	150,043
Arkansas	3.1	-1.8	42,609
California	6.5	-2.8	1,238,037
Colorado	4.8	-2.1	154,292
Connecticut	5.8	-2.4	105,215
Delaware	5.0	-0.9	24,609
District of Columbia	5.8	-3.0	23,741
Florida	4.4	-0.7	466,176
Georgia	2.6	-2.7	135,906
Hawaii	5.7	-4.6	37,057
Idaho	2.4	-1.4	22,088
Illinois	5.3	-2.7	333,136
Indiana	2.7	-1.9	88,240
Iowa	3.5	-0.2	57,907
Kansas	3.3	-1.4	49,796
Kentucky	3.9	-1.7	78,817
Louisiana	4.8	-3.1	98,295
Maine	4.7	-0.3	31,806
Maryland	5.0	-1.8	156,473
Massachusetts	3.9	-4.5	145,093
Michigan	5.6	-2.6	265,115
Minnesota	3.1	-1.6	93,906
Mississippi	4.5	-2.1	56,792
Missouri	3.3	-1.1	101,988
Montana	2.5	-1.7	13,689
Nebraska	1.7	-1.7	17,128
Nevada	6.4	-1.8	99,409
New Hampshire	2.6	-1.2	19,561
New Jersey	6.3	-1.4	280,211
New Mexico	5.8	-2.8	55,640
New York	6.2	-2.5	572,626
North Carolina	3.7	-2.4	188,391
North Dakota	3.1	-1.6	12,297
Ohio	4.5	-1.1	256,392
Oklahoma	2.3	-2.2	42,758
Oregon	4.1	-2.2	89,349
Pennsylvania	5.4	-1.7	337,133
Rhode Island	4.8	-3.1	26,684
South Carolina	3.5	-2.1	85,090
South Dakota	2.6	-0.7	12,173
Tennessee	3.8	-1.8	127,341
Texas	5.0	-1.9	712,828
Utah	1.9	-1.4	31,817
Vermont	2.5	-1.0	7,972
Virginia	3.2	-2.4	136,557
Washington	4.5	-1.8	176,857
West Virginia	3.7	-3.0	28,903
Wisconsin	2.8	-1.2	86,197
Wyoming	3.3	-1.9	9,717
Puerto Rico	7.5	-1.7	82,653

Nebraska had the lowest jobless rate in December, at 1.7 percent, followed by Utah, 1.9 percent. The rates in the following 12 states set new series lows (since 1976): Arkansas (3.1 percent), Georgia (2.6 percent), Idaho (2.4 percent), Indiana (2.7 percent), Kentucky (3.9 percent), Mississippi (4.5 percent), Montana (2.5 percent), Nebraska (1.7 percent), Oklahoma (2.3 percent), Utah (1.9 percent), West Virginia (3.7 percent), and Wisconsin (2.8 percent). California and Nevada had the highest unemployment rates, 6.5 percent, and 6.4 percent, respectively.

Editor’s Note: It is possible that part of the reason that the unemployment rate is so low is that people have withdrawn from the workforce due to COVID fears, homeschooling, or other reasons.

In total, 17 states and the District of Columbia had unemployment rates higher than the U.S. figure of 3.9 percent, 16 states had lower rates, and 17 states had rates that were not appreciably different from that of the nation.

Nonfarm Payroll Employment

Nonfarm payroll employment increased in 17 states and was essentially unchanged in 33 states and the District of Columbia in December 2021. The largest job gains occurred in California (+50,700), Texas (+50,000), and New York (+45,300). The largest percentage increases occurred in Iowa and West Virginia (+0.8 percent each), followed by Massachusetts, Missouri, and Montana (+0.6 percent each).

Over the year, nonfarm payroll employment increased in 48 states and the District of Columbia and was essentially unchanged in 2 states. The largest job increases occurred in California (+954,400), Texas (+694,400), and Florida (+479,300). The largest percentage increases occurred in Nevada (+7.4 percent), Hawaii (+7.1 percent), and Massachusetts (+6.6 percent).

Secure Careers That Don’t Require A Lot Of Education

January 26, 2022 by Tim McMahon

Deciding on a career path can be stressful. Finding a good secure job that doesn’t require a college education can be difficult. With so many options out there, you want to make sure you pick a career path businesses will need. Knowing the current job market trends can help alleviate some of the stress. Certain jobs will always be in demand.

Nursing Assistant or Orderly

There will always be a need for nurses. A certified nursing assistant or CNA is the lowest rung on the Nursing ladder and doesn’t require a lot of education. A CNA assists patients in their health care needs in a hospital, clinic, or nursing home. A registered nurse supervises them. To be a CNA, you only need a high school diploma or GED. Some states require CNAs to pass a competency exam to become licensed or certified. A CNA needs to take a patient’s vitals, serve food, bathe and dress them and be strong enough to move or lift patients when necessary. Orderlies transport patients and clean treatment areas. Overall employment of nursing assistants and orderlies is projected to grow 8 percent from 2020 to 2030. In 2020, CNAs and Orderlies earned an average of between $30-31,000/yr. [Read more…] about Secure Careers That Don’t Require A Lot Of Education

No Work Experience? Here Are Some Interesting Job Possibilities

January 19, 2022 by Tim McMahon

Looking for work can be daunting. Even when lots of job openings seem available, you might quickly discover that many of them have educational and experience requirements you don’t have. Fortunately, you can find work faster if you look into fields of work that require little to no experience.

Grocery Stores

Whether it’s working as a cashier, bagger, or stock clerk, grocery stores need plenty of people to keep food goods and customers moving. The work is simple enough for on-the-job training. It seems like a low-paying position, but grocery stores pay their employees quite well.

Restaurants

Cooks and managers at regular restaurants might need experience. Waitstaff, greeters, busboys, and dishwashers often don’t. Fastfood is always looking for cooks as well. There are often opportunities for flexible schedules and working your way up if you enjoy working where you do. If you find the right place, you may love the environment more than the work and stay for the ones that take good care of you. [Read more…] about No Work Experience? Here Are Some Interesting Job Possibilities

Exciting Marketing Careers You May Not Know About

January 14, 2022 by Tim McMahon

marketing [ mahr-ki-ting ]

Marketing careers are constantly changing and evolving. There are many avenues to pursue your career, some of which you may not be familiar with. Whether you want to work with small businesses or global brands, plenty of options are available.

According to Investopedia, “Marketing refers to activities a company undertakes to promote the buying or selling of a product or service. Marketing includes advertising, selling, and delivering products to consumers or other businesses.”

Sales

When starting a marketing career, it is essential to make sure that you aim for the right marketing field. One option that may not be as popular but still offers an excellent range of opportunities is sales. Sales can range from running your own company to freelance work to providing advice on the best practices for other companies or brands.

Selling may be more stressful than other marketing types because you are responsible for generating revenue and reaching targets. Still, it can also come with more financial security and career progression opportunities than some other types of marketing jobs. If you make decent commissions, this can also be a great way to earn extra cash. Consider speaking with a sales job recruiting agency for new sales job opportunities near you.

December Job Growth Fails to Meet Expectations… Again

January 8, 2022 by Tim McMahon

December 2021 Unemployment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)

Unadjusted U-3 was Down from 3.9% to 3.7%
Adjusted U-3 was Down from 4.2% to 3.9%
Unadjusted U-6 was Down from 7.4% to 7.2%
Labor Force Participation Unchanged at 61.9%
Unadjusted Employment rose from 150.098 million to 150.170 million

Job growth in December failed to meet expectations for the 2nd month in a row. Economists had predicted more than 400,000 jobs would be added in the month. Instead, according to the BLS, the U.S. economy added less than half that amount.

On a positive note, Seasonally adjusted unemployment fell from 4.2% to 3.9%.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 199,000 in December, and the unemployment rate declined by 0.3 percentage point to 3.9 percent. Employment continued to trend up in leisure and hospitality, in professional and business services, in manufacturing, in construction, and in transportation and warehousing. In 2021, job growth averaged 537,000 per month. Employment has increased by 18.8 million since April 2020 but is down by 3.6 million, or 2.3 percent, from its level before the onset of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic in February 2020.”

But looking at the CES report, we see…
Initially, the BLS reported 150.004 million for November, which they adjusted to 150.098 million. For December, they are reporting 150.170 million.
This is an increase of 166,000 jobs based on their original estimates or an increase of 72,000 based on their updated numbers.

Although Employment is 6.568 million Above Year-Ago Levels…

Employment numbers are still about 800,000 short of February 2020 numbers, but the Civilian Population has increased by about 2.6 MILLION people since then.

Simple Tips For Generating More Real Estate Clients

December 28, 2021 by Tim McMahon

The most important key to success as a real estate agent is generating potential clients. While finding your first client is difficult for some, there are things you can do to increase your odds of success. There are many ways to find clients as a new real estate agent, but these tips have proven most successful for rookie agents.

Get Face-to-Face With Potential Buyers and Sellers

A great way to begin the process of generating clients is by getting involved in the community through volunteer opportunities at local charities or mentoring programs. This will allow you to meet potential clients and create relationships with them.

Use Your Personal and Professional Networks

One of the best ways to find your first clients is by leveraging the people you know. Ask your family, friends, and colleagues if they know anyone looking to buy or sell a home. Word-of-mouth is a potent tool, so don’t be afraid to ask for help. [Read more…] about Simple Tips For Generating More Real Estate Clients

Tips for Starting a Successful Home-Based Business

December 21, 2021 by Tim McMahon

In the past, often people wouldn’t take home-based businesses seriously. If you had an office at home, you would do everything to hide the fact. However, this is no longer the case… These days home-based businesses are among the fastest-growing job segments.

Technology has been the key driver in this shift as many people are now able to handle their businesses from anywhere. You can start any business you are passionate about, and the benefits are staggering, including not having to worry about rent for the business when you start.

Write a Business Plan

The fact you’re starting the business at home does not mean you should discard all the professional recommendations of all other startups. A business plan is an essential document as it defines your business and provides recommendations for the direction you should take. This is a time-consuming step in setting up a home-based business, so do it well.

A good business plan should contain the information you need to run the business successfully. The document is also important when applying for funding or pitching for partnerships.

Register Your Business

Like any other business, you need to establish the legal status of your home-based business. If you choose to form an LLC, you must register with your state to run the business legally. This process varies by state, so check the local laws to know what you’re required to do.

Generally, you can consult your local County Office for information on how to go about your business registration. Also, you need an employer identification number, this is important as it offers several advantages, including making it possible to hire employees, filing business taxes, and opening a business bank account.

Important documents like your business plan and your formation papers quickly pile up as you start up your business, which is why it’s crucial to not misplace any of the paperwork. Be sure to keep it all organized and in the same location. The best way to maintain your documents and have them available for easy retrieval is by digitizing them by scanning them as PDFs, then merge PDF files and store them on your hard drive or in the cloud.

Getting Your First Customer

Getting the first customer is an experience that gives you hope. To make your business a success, you must begin with the first customer. This is possible if you engage the right marketing steps to make the business visible to as many people as possible. There are many options if you want to find customers, including looking for referrals, as Birdeye explains. Start with your friends and family and you can encourage them to share the information about your business with their friends.

Another option is to attend industry events, where you can showcase your goods and services. You could also team up with other businesses to see if they can accept partnerships. Don’t forget social media to spread the word about your business. This is one of the most effective marketing tools, especially for startups.

If you feel the need to beef up your business acumen, consider taking business classes to acquire the latest knowledge in areas like finance, management and marketing. Opting for an online college-level program makes sense, as you can work toward a degree while having the flexibility to complete assignments and take tests remotely and on your own schedule. Online programs can be completed in relatively quick fashion; it’s possible to earn an MBA through the University of Phoenix, for example, in just 16 months.

Separate Business and Personal Finances

After taking all the right steps to establish a home-based business, it can be tempting to mix your personal finances with money from your business. Forbes notes that managing business finances is important if you want to stay in business longer. While this is a one-person operation, you must separate business and personal finances, especially if your business is just starting out.

Keep your personal and business finances separate. This is the best way to protect your personal assets, and it’s a crucial idea as it makes it easy to handle tax filing, bookkeeping, and offers general organization.

Using your EIN, open a business account. This will make it easy to manage money in your business, and you can use the account for paying employees, suppliers, and other services. Because you’re running a home-based business, prioritize bank accounts that offer online banking.

Conclusion

Running a home-based business should not be different from running any other type of business. Except for the fact, the business is based in your home, you need to maintain all professional guidelines for a startup. Manage your finances separately, and ensure the business is registered and licensed.

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November Jobs Up But…

December 4, 2021 by Tim McMahon

November 2021 Unemployment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)

Unadjusted U-3 was Down from 4.3% to 3.9%
Adjusted U-3 was Down from 4.6% to 4.2%
Unadjusted U-6 was Down from 7.7% to 7.4%
Labor Force Participation Up 61.6% to 61.8%
Unadjusted employment rose from 149.226 million to 150.004 million

Although November’s job numbers are generally an improvement over October, Bloomberg called them”weird” and “the smallest jobs gain this year”. This jobs report is so weird because retail employment is DOWN by -20,400 in a month, known for increased retail employment. Market commentators are also blaming the Jobs report for Friday’s market drop.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 210,000 in November, and the unemployment rate fell by 0.4 percentage point to 4.2 percent. Notable job gains occurred in professional and business services, transportation and warehousing, construction, and manufacturing. Employment in retail trade declined over the month.”

But looking at the CES report, we see…
Initially, the BLS reported 149.217 million for October, which they adjusted to 149.226 million. For November, they are reporting 150.004 million,
which is an increase of 787,000 jobs based on their original estimates or an increase of 778,000 based on their updated numbers.

Find Opportunities To Boost Your Military Career When You’re In A Slump

November 23, 2021 by Tim McMahon

Many people reach a point in their career where they feel stagnant, even people employed by the armed forces. When this happens, it’s important to take control of the situation by utilizing the resources available to you. Here are some things you can do to give your military career a boost when you’re in a slump.

Online College

If you want to get ahead, you can benefit from obtaining an advanced degree in your field. As a member of the military, you may even qualify for free classes. However, going back to school may not appeal to you if you have a full-time job and personal obligations to tend to. When will you find the time?

Online colleges for military personnel allow you to take classes on your time. You can also take a whole class load or take just one or two classes at a time. College advisors can offer you guidance on managing your schedule and choosing the most necessary or useful classes.

Get Involved in the Community

As a member of the armed forces, you serve your Country. Connect to the people you serve by supporting work-related community efforts.

Your superior will appreciate your effort and keep you in mind when a promotion becomes available. You’ll also feel good about doing something good for the people in your area, increasing the bond between soldiers and civilians. [Read more…] about Find Opportunities To Boost Your Military Career When You’re In A Slump