Tim McMahon, Editor of UnemploymentData.com

My grandfather lived through the Hyperinflation in Weimar, Germany--to say he was an original “gold bug” would be an understatement. I began reading his “hard money” newsletters at the age of 16 and the dividends from gold stocks helped put me through college. I began publishing the Financial Trend Forecaster paper newsletter in 1995 upon the death of James Moore editor of Your Window into the Future and the creator of the Moore Inflation Predictor©. FTF specializes in trends in the stock market, gold, inflation and bonds. In January of 2003, I began publishing InflationData.com to specialize in all forms of information about the nature of Inflation. In 2009, we added Elliott Wave University to help teach you the principles of Elliott Wave analysis. In January 2013, we began publishing OptioMoney. Connect with Tim on Google+.

Is the Average Worker “Falling Behind”?

July 29, 2022 by Tim McMahon

Wages Up: But are Employees Better Off?

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its “Employment Cost Index” report on Friday, July 29^th, for the second quarter of 2022. According to this report, “Wages and salaries increased 5.3 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2022… Benefit costs increased 4.8 percent over the year.” This was on top of a 3.2 percent increase in wages for the 12-month period ending in June 2021.

In most recent years, this would be a good thing for employees, but with inflation currently running at over 9% for the year ending in June 2022, workers are actually losing 3.8% in purchasing power. (9.1% inflation minus 5.3% wage increase equals -3.8% purchasing power.) So the answer is that in 2022 workers are NOT better off.

Annual Inflation was 5.4% in June of 2021, so a 3.2% increase in wages left workers 2.2% in the hole last year as well.

The following table shows the annual increase in Total Civilian Compensation (i.e. Wages & Benefits) each June compared to the inflation rate for that year. [Read more…] about Is the Average Worker “Falling Behind”?

4 Ways to Keep Good Employees at Your Company for Longer

July 19, 2022 by Tim McMahon

Employee retention i.e. “Keeping good employees” is essential for any company to succeed. If you lose a good employee, finding and training a replacement can take a lot of time and money. Although this applies in any type of economic environment it is especially true in a tight labor market like we are experiencing now.

Employee Recognition = Employee Retention

Monetarily: By giving a raise or bonus
More Responsibility: By giving a promotion
Public recognition: By giving awards or certificates.

Employees who feel recognized are more likely to stay with the company.

Employee Engagement

Another way to keep your employees is to engage them from time to time. This means talking to them about their work, goals, and progress. It also means asking for their input on decisions that affect them. Constant employee engagement makes your employees feel like they are part of the company and are more likely to stay.

Employee engagement involves talking to employees about their work and goals. Employees whose opinion is valued are more likely to stay with the company. [Read more…] about 4 Ways to Keep Good Employees at Your Company for Longer

June 2022 BLS Jobs Report- Recession Indicators?

July 9, 2022 by Tim McMahon

Early Indicators of possible recession appeared in the June jobs report, but you have to look closely to find them in reports by the mainstream media.

Adjusted U-3 was Unchanged at 3.6%
Unadjusted U-3 was Up from 3.4% to 3.8%
Unadjusted U-6 was Up from 6.7% to 7.0%
Unadjusted Employment rose from 150.964 to 151.773 million
Average Weekly Wages Still Rising

Early Warning Negative Indicators

Early Indicators of a possible recession

Labor Force Participation Down from 62.3% to 62.2%
Upturn in Uneducated Unemployment
Rising Unemployment among the newly unemployed
Average Weekly Hours among manufacturing workers falling

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 372,000 in June, and the unemployment rate remained at 3.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.
Notable job gains occurred in professional and business services, leisure and hospitality, and health care.

The unemployment rate was 3.6 percent for the fourth month in a row, and the number of unemployed persons was essentially unchanged at 5.9 million in June. These measures are little different from their values in February 2020 (3.5 percent and 5.7 million, respectively), prior to the coronavirus (COVID19) pandemic.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs” from the “Household Survey” rather than looking at the results reported by actual companies in the BLS “Establishment Survey.”

But looking at the Establishment Survey report, we see…
Initially, the BLS reported employment of 151.773 million for May, which they adjusted to 151.748 million. So 25,000 jobs disappeared in May. They are reporting 152.692 million jobs for June, which is an increase of 919,000 based on their original estimates or an increase of 944,000 based on their updated numbers.

According to CNN:

The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, released on Wednesday, showed there were 11.3 million job openings in May, or 1.9 positions for every job seeker, and historically low levels of layoffs… But, the BLS reported that initial jobless claims for the week ending July 2 totaled 235,000, an increase of 4,000 from the prior week’s reading and the highest level since mid-January… New job cuts data released Thursday by Challenger, Gray & Christmas revealed that US employers announced 32,517 layoffs in June, a 58.8% increase from the same month last year, and the highest monthly total since February 2021.

According to the Washington Post:

The strong job growth keeps pressure on the Fed to continue raising interest rates when it meets later this month. After years of keeping interest rates at or near zero, the central bank has so far hiked rates three times this year, by a total of 1.5 percentage points, in the hope of slowing the economy just enough to curb inflation, which is at 40-year highs, without pushing it into a deep recession.

Recession Ahead?

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta estimated that the economy shrank by 1.2 percent in the second quarter, which would put the U.S. in a recession by one common definition i.e. two consecutive quarters of economic contraction. But the National Bureau of Economic Research, the nonprofit organization that is the official arbiter of recessions, also includes unemployment in their calculations, so according to their definition, there is no recession yet.

Employment is almost back to 2019 peak levels (although the civilian population is about 4 million higher now).

May 2022- Unemployment by State

June 18, 2022 by Tim McMahon

On Friday, June 17^th, 2022, The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its breakdown of the unemployment rates for each individual state for May.

In the chart below, the lightest colors represent the states with the lowest unemployment rates.

Looking at the above map, we can see that the lowest unemployment states run diagonally across the country, starting in Florida and ending in Montana and Idaho. Conversely, the states with the highest unemployment are located in the North East, the South West, and West Coast. Of course, minor exceptions exist, but generally, it holds.

May 2022 Unemployment Rate by State Table (Alphabetical)

State	May 2022 Unemployment Rate	May 2021 Unemployment Rate	12-month change
Alabama	2.7%	3.6%	-0.9%
Alaska	4.7%	6.8%	-2.1%
Arizona	3.2%	5.4%	-2.2%
Arkansas	3.2%	4.4%	-1.2%
California	4.3%	7.9%	-3.6%
Colorado	3.5%	5.8%	-2.3%
Connecticut	4.2%	6.7%	-2.5%
Delaware	4.5%	5.7%	-1.2%
District of Columbia	5.7%	6.9%	-1.2%
Florida	3.0%	4.9%	-1.9%
Georgia	3.0%	4.1%	-1.1%
Hawaii	4.2%	5.9%	-1.7%
Idaho	2.5%	3.7%	-1.2%
Illinois	4.6%	6.5%	-1.9%
Indiana	2.2%	4.0%	-1.8%
Iowa	2.7%	4.5%	-1.8%
Kansas	2.3%	3.4%	-1.1%
Kentucky	3.8%	4.7%	-0.9%
Louisiana	4.0%	5.9%	-1.9%
Maine	3.2%	4.9%	-1.7%
Maryland	4.0%	5.7%	-1.7%
Massachusetts	3.9%	5.9%	-2.0%
Michigan	4.3%	6.2%	-1.9%
Minnesota	2.0%	3.4%	-1.4%
Mississippi	4.0%	6.0%	-2.0%
Missouri	3.1%	4.5%	-1.4%
Montana	2.4%	3.6%	-1.2%
Nebraska	1.9%	2.5%	-0.6%
Nevada	4.9%	7.8%	-2.9%
New Hampshire	2.1%	3.7%	-1.6%
New Jersey	3.9%	6.6%	-2.7%
New Mexico	5.1%	7.2%	-2.1%
New York	4.4%	7.4%	-3.0%
North Carolina	3.4%	5.0%	-1.6%
North Dakota	2.6%	3.8%	-1.2%
Ohio	3.9%	5.4%	-1.5%
Oklahoma	2.8%	4.4%	-1.6%
Oregon	3.6%	5.6%	-2.0%
Pennsylvania	4.6%	6.7%	-2.1%
Rhode Island	2.9%	6.0%	-3.1%
South Carolina	3.3%	4.1%	-0.8%
South Dakota	2.3%	3.2%	-0.9%
Tennessee	3.3%	4.6%	-1.3%
Texas	4.2%	5.9%	-1.7%
Utah	2.0%	2.8%	-0.8%
Vermont	2.3%	3.6%	-1.3%
Virginia	3.0%	4.1%	-1.1%
Washington	3.9%	5.5%	-1.6%
West Virginia	3.5%	5.4%	-1.9%
Wisconsin	2.9%	4.1%	-1.2%
Wyoming	3.2%	4.7%	-1.5%
Puerto Rico	6.2%	8.1%	-1.9%

States with the Highest Unemployment Rates

The record for the highest unemployment goes as usual to the two that are not really “states,” i.e., Puerto Rico and D.C. at 6.2% and 5.7%, respectively. Next comes New Mexico at 5.1%, Nevada at 4.9%, Alaska at 4.7%, Illinois and Pennsylvania at 4.6%, Delaware at 4.5%, New York at 4.4%, and California and Michigan tied for 10th worst place at 4.3%. [Read more…] about May 2022- Unemployment by State

May Employment Up – Unemployment Unchanged

June 4, 2022 by Tim McMahon

May 2022 Employment — Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Jobs Report

Adjusted U-3 was Unchanged at 3.6%
Unadjusted U-3 was Up from 3.3% to 3.4%
Unadjusted U-6 was Up from 6.6% to 6.7%
Labor Force Participation Up from 62.2% to 62.3%
Unadjusted Employment rose from 150.964 to 151.773 million

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 390,000 in May, and the unemployment rate remained at 3.6 percent. Notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, in professional and business services, and in transportation and warehousing. Employment in retail trade declined. Nonfarm employment is down by 822,000, or 0.5 percent, from its February 2020 level before the onset of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.
In May, employment growth continued in leisure and hospitality (+84,000)… Employment in professional and business services increased by 75,000 in May… Transportation and warehousing added 47,000 jobs…”
You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs” from the “Household Survey” rather than looking at the results reported by actual companies in the BLS “Establishment Survey”

But looking at the Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 150.938 million for April which they adjusted to 150.964 million. So they added 26,000 jobs disappeared for April. They are reporting 151.773 million jobs for May which is actually an increase of 835,000 jobs based on their original estimates or an increase of 809,000 based on their updated numbers.

Surprisingly, Retail LOST -60,700 jobs.

According to Trading Economics:
The US unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.6 percent in May of 2022, the same as in the previous two months, remaining the lowest since February 2020 and compared with market expectations of 3.5 percent. The number of unemployed people increased by 9 thousand to 5.950 million, while employment levels rose by 321 thousand to 158.426 million. Meanwhile, the labor force participation rate edged up to 62.3 percent in May from a 3-month low of 62.2 percent in April.

Stroudsburg PA News headline says “Lowest Unemployment Rate since 1969” … Umm No! Not really… the article text backtracks a little adding the word “about” saying… “about the lowest it has been since 1969.” I suppose that is “almost true” if you disregard the 4 months in 2019 and 2020 when it was lower (i.e. 3.5%) and 3.6% is almost 3.4%. I guess that is what passes for journalism these days.

April Unemployment Holds Steady

May 7, 2022 by Tim McMahon

April 2022 Employment — Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Jobs Report

Adjusted U-3 was Unchanged at 3.6%
Unadjusted U-3 was Down from 3.8% to 3.3%
Unadjusted U-6 was Down from 7.1% to 6.6%
Labor Force Participation Down from 62.4% to 62.2%
Unadjusted Employment rose from 149. 912 to 150.938 million

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 428,000 in April, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.6 percent. Job growth was widespread, led by gains in leisure and hospitality, in manufacturing, and in transportation and warehousing.

Nonfarm employment is down by 1.2 million, or 0.8 percent, from its February 2020 level before the onset of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.

In April, employment growth continued in leisure and hospitality (+78,000), with gains in food services and drinking places (+44,000) and accommodation (+22,000). Employment in leisure and hospitality is down by 1.4 million, or 8.5 percent, from its February 2020 level.”

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs” from the “Household Survey” rather than looking at the results reported by actual companies in the BLS “Establishment Survey”

Looking at the Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 149.938 million for March which they adjusted to 149.912 million. So 26,000 jobs disappeared for March. They are reporting 150.938 million jobs for April which is actually an increase of exactly 1,000,000 jobs based on their original estimates or an increase of 1,026,000 based on their updated numbers.

According to Jeffrey Tucker at Gilder’s Daily Prophecy “The jobs report this morning didn’t look half bad on the surface… The trouble was in the footnotes: The U.S. labor force shrank by 363,000 people in April from a month earlier… The labor force participation rate… ticked down to 62.2% in April from 62.4% in March.

So the dropout economy is getting worse, not better, rendering these unemployment numbers rather pointless… Women with kids have dropped out and child care is too expensive. Many men just moved home to mom and dad and are happy to live off savings and look forward to going into debt. Plus, the demoralization of the workforce after lockdowns has drained American ambition… In addition, wage growth is slowing, a fact which might cheer the Fed, but is bad news for workers because it means the purchasing power of their wages will fall further, after having endured a devastating hit over the last six months.

A former Fed official went public with a very obvious statement, namely that the federal funds rate needs to be 3.5% in order to even begin to make a dent in inflation.
How does Richard Clarida know this? It’s not rocket science: short-term rates need to be positive in real terms rather than negative. That means 3.5%, yes, but more likely double or triple that. The Fed simply won’t go there. The Fed’s theory is that it can put out the house fire by carefully spraying a bit of water here and there in a way that doesn’t cause shock and alarm.”

Jobs of the Future: Growing Your Career in the IT Field

May 3, 2022 by Tim McMahon

Careers in information technology (IT), computer science, and engineering continue to multiply, providing opportunities for those interested in this high-tech field. While a specialized education is necessary for this line of work, growth, advancement, and earning potential are exceptional, and the industry is anticipated to grow significantly well into the future. Here, we provide unique insights into the IT field that can be of particular interest as you explore your career options.

Career Potential

According to the U.S. Department of Labor Occupational Outlook Handbook, you can explore several career paths in the IT field – a field anticipated to grow by more than 13 percent through 2030. Roles include computer programming, systems analysis, computer network architecture, information security, and web and software development. Salaries range from the mid-$70s to the mid-$100s. While information research scientists are typically required to have a master’s degree, several other IT occupations require only a bachelor’s degree to get started. [Read more…] about Jobs of the Future: Growing Your Career in the IT Field

Is Intermodal Trucking The Right Job For You?

April 13, 2022 by Tim McMahon

Last week we looked at “hot shot trucking” and this week we are going to look at “Intermodal trucking”. So what exactly is intermodal trucking?~Tim McMahon, editor

As a truck driver, your skills are in higher demand today than ever before. While you may have many options from which to choose, intermodal trucking may be one you should seriously consider. If you are wondering why more and more truck drivers are choosing to focus on intermodal trucking, here are some of the biggest reasons for its growing popularity.

Far Less Labor

When you focus on intermodal trucking, you will have far less labor to perform as a driver. Since intermodal trucking is geared toward drop and hook delivery, this means you simply deliver shipping containers to customers, giving you no-touch freight that does not require you to spend time unloading.

Regular Schedule

As an intermodal truck driver, you will have a very consistent schedule that allows you to spend much more time with your family than if you were a long-haul driver. Since intermodal facilities usually operate 24/7, drivers often have the option to choose various shifts to work. Most often, you can expect to be home each day or at least several days per week. [Read more…] about Is Intermodal Trucking The Right Job For You?

What Is Hot Shot Trucking?

April 5, 2022 by Tim McMahon

What Is Hot Shot Trucking?

Hotshot trucking is a new trend and, according to truckstop.com, “involves hauling smaller, more time-sensitive loads within a specific timeframe, and usually to a single customer or location. Hotshot loads are usually delivered using medium-duty trucks that pull flatbed trailers.”~Tim McMahon, editor

Truckers aren’t called “cowboys” for nothing. Trucking has been one of the stable modes of employment for freelance individuals that want to break free of a static life and earn a decent living wage on their own terms. These days, Heavy Goods Vehicle drivers need to be specially trained and licensed and tend to be at the mercy of shipping companies and freight brokers. They are increasingly surveilled at work and find their freedoms eroded by companies that want to save money. One field of trucking with none of these disadvantages is hotshot trucking.

The Trailer

The main expense for truck owners who want to start earning money by taking hotshot loads is the trailer. There are several kinds of hotshot trailers that a regular Ford F450 can pull. Popular types of hotshot trailers include lowboy, bumper, and gooseneck types. Some specialist trailers are available for unusually shaped loads like farm machinery. [Read more…] about What Is Hot Shot Trucking?

March 2022 Unemployment Not as Low as Expected

April 2, 2022 by Tim McMahon

March 2022 Unemployment Report Doesn’t Beat Expert’s Predictions

Adjusted U-3 was Down from 3.8% to 3.6%
Unadjusted U-3 was Down from 4.1% to 3.8%
Unadjusted U-6 was Down from 7.6% to 7.1%
Labor Force Participation Up from 62.3% to 62.4%
Unadjusted Employment rose from 149.144 million to 149. 938 million

March 2022 Unemployment report:

Although MSNBC is touting it as a win, they admit that experts predicted 490,000 new jobs, but according to the BLS, we only got 431,000, so they could have just as easily spun this as a negative report. Instead, MSNBC gushes about the “new jobs” but then goes on to say, “the U.S. economy has now gained back roughly 93 percent of its pandemic job losses”.

As we’ve consistently pointed out, we are still below peak pre-covid employment levels. Although MSNBC says, “So far in 2022, the economy has created 1.69 million jobs”… we’re still below December 2021 levels… hmm I guess it depends on how you look at it. Unlike what you’d expect from a pandemic… since Covid started the U.S. population is up by 3.8 million, so we need to have more jobs just to be equal. In other words, population inflation does to jobs what monetary inflation does to the cost of living.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 431,000 in March, and the unemployment rate declined by 0.2 percentage points to 3.6 percent. Notable job gains continued in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, retail trade, and manufacturing.

Job growth averaged 562,000 per month in the first quarter of 2022, the same as the average monthly gain for 2021. However, Employment is down by 1.6 million, or 1.0 percent, from its February 2020 level before the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.”

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs” from the “Current Population Survey (CPS)” rather than looking at the results reported by actual companies in the BLS “Current Employment Statistics survey (CES)”.

But looking at the CES report, we see…
Initially, the BLS reported Employment of 148.964 million for February, which they adjusted to 149.144 million. So 18,000 jobs appeared for February. They are saying 149.938 million jobs for March, which is an increase of 974,000 jobs based on their original estimates or an increase of 794,000 based on their updated numbers.