unemployment

February Jobs Report Smashes Expectations

March 7, 2020 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for February on March 6th.

Unemployment returns to 50-year lows. The “Seasonally Adjusted” Unemployment Rate fell from 3.6% in January to 3.5% in February. Thus returning to the previous low levels of September, November, and December after increasing slightly in January.
We are still in record low territory and that won’t change overnight. Seasonally adjusted U-3 Unemployment notched up 1/10^th of a percent in January and fell back the same amount in February. The Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) remains in territory that it hasn’t seen in years…

This is better than expected results and according to @AP News it shows that “the economy was in strong shape before the coronavirus began to sweep
through the U.S. “

The average monthly wage is up almost $130 over year-ago levels so two-income families are bringing in an average of at least $250 a month more. (See employment by Sector for more info).

This month we will also look at unemployment by Education level, and reasons for unemployment.

February Jobs Report Smashes Expectations

Unadjusted U-3 was down from 4.0% to 3.8%!
Adjusted U-3 was down slightly from 3.6% to 3.5%!
Unadjusted U-6 was down from 7.7% to 7.4%!
Labor Force Participation remains at the highest level since 2013.
Unadjusted Employment Up by approx. 880,000 jobs.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 273,000 in February, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 3.5 percent.
Notable employment gains occurred in health care and social assistance, food services and drinking places, government, construction, professional and technical services, and financial activities.”

But, he is talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs” from the “Current Population Survey (CPS)” rather than looking at the results reported by actual companies in their “Current Employment Statistics survey (CES)”

Looking at the CES report we see…

Originally the BLS reported 150.102 million jobs for January and then they added 15,000 jobs to that estimate.
So currently they are saying 150.117 million jobs for January and 150.997 million jobs for February
which is actually an increase of 895,000 jobs over what they originally reported last month and 880,000 more than current estimates for last month.

Of course, the Corona Virus scare is affecting the Stock Market as the AP news was quick to point out. So March numbers may be affected by that.

For more info see our Current Unemployment Chart and Current U.S. Employment Chart commentary.

Comparing U.S. and European Unemployment Rates

February 17, 2020 by Tim McMahon

Often we get complacent and think that our situation is the same (or very similar to) other developed countries. But that is not always the case. Today we are going to look at how the unemployment rate in the U.S. compares to that of Europe.

In the following chart created by Statista from data supplied by “Eurostat” and “National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (France)” we can see that Europe itself is not one unified block with identical (or even similar) unemployment rates.

The data in this graphic is from the end of 2019 when unemployment rates in the United States were at 3.5%. We can see that the countries in yellow had comparable unemployment rates to the U.S. i.e. Germany, Poland, and the Netherlands. Britain, Romania, and Bulgaria were in the high 3’s with the surprise being the Czech Republic coming in at a scant 2.0%. According to an article in The Atlantic, the 2017 elections decimated the “Left and Center” leaving the moderate right and the anti-immigrant far-right. So we are free to conclude that without the influx of cheap labor from Northern Africa, that all of the rest of Europe welcomed with open arms, the Czech Republic has record low unemployment as only native Czech’s are competing for the jobs.

One of the other surprises is that [Read more…] about Comparing U.S. and European Unemployment Rates

January Employment Report- Maybe Not as Good?

February 8, 2020 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for January on February 7^th.

Last month we told you that the employment report was not as bad as the media tried to paint it. This month The New York Times is saying “Job Growth Gives the Economy an Upbeat Start to the Year” while Marketwatch calls the Labor Market “Astounding” and once again we have a slightly different opinion.

Yes, we are still in record low territory and that won’t change overnight. Seasonally adjusted Unemployment only notched up 1/10^th of a percent and the Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) has entered territory that it hasn’t seen in years… BUT the unadjusted numbers jumped up significantly (as they do every year) and the BLS adjusted the Population numbers DOWN significantly. This adjustment is what the pundits are not seeing and what makes me think the numbers may not be quite as good as they appear i.e. lower population means a higher percentage appears to be working (even though the actual unadjusted employment fell). This could have given the LFPR the apparent boost and made the Adjusted U-3 increase by less than it would have without the population adjustment. This is still not a bad employment report just perhaps not as rosy as the media made it sound.

Key January Employment and Unemployment Numbers

Unadjusted U-3 Unemployment- 4.0% Up from December’s 3.5%… Typically up in January, it was 4.4% in January 2019.
Adjusted U-3 Unemployment- 3.6% Up from 3.5% in December.
Unadjusted U-6 Unemployment- 7.7% Up from 6.7% in December… was 8.8% in January 2019.
Unadjusted Employment (Establishment Survey)- 150.102 million down from 152,934 in December.
Labor Force Participation Rate- 63.4% Up from 63.2%.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 225,000 in January, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 3.6 percent.
Notable employment gains occurred in construction, in health care, and in transportation and warehousing.
In 2019, job growth averaged 175,000 per month.

Of course, he is talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs” from the “Current Population Survey (CPS)”
rather than looking at the results reported by actual companies in their “Current Employment Statistics survey (CES)” which showed a non-adjusted drop of 2.8 million jobs.

For more info see our Current Unemployment Chart and Current U.S. Employment Chart commentary.

December Jobs Report Not “Disappointing”

January 11, 2020 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for December on January 10^th.

CNBC was quick to label it “disappointing” but at 1/10^th of a percent off a 50 year low how disappointing can it really be? The unadjusted numbers were up slightly but that isn’t unusual for December and they weren’t even up by as much as they were last year. In December 2018 the unadjusted U-6 went from 7.2% to 7.5% (i.e. 0.3%). This year it went from 6.5% to 6.7% (up 0.2%). Last year the unadjusted U-3 went from 3.5% to 3.7% (up 0.2%) this year it went from 3.3% to 3.4% (up 0.1%). Last year the adjusted U-3 went from 3.7% to 3.9%. This year it went from… wait for it… 3.5% to 3.5%… what? Yes, it was unchanged. On a seasonally adjusted basis, unemployment is exactly the same as last month (i.e. one of the best months in recorded history). What about Labor Force Participation? Unchanged at 63.2%… slightly off recent highs of 63.3% which it reached in October. The only “fly in the ointment” was actual unadjusted employment which was down slightly while adjusted Employment was still up by 145,000.

December Jobs Report

Adjusted U-3 was Unchanged at 3.5%!
Unadjusted U-3 was up slightly from 3.3% to 3.4%!
Unadjusted U-6 was Up from 6.5% to 6.7%
Labor Force Participation was unchanged at 63.2%.
Unadjusted Employment down slightly while adjusted Employment was up by 145,000.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 145,000 in December, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.5 percent. Notable employment gains occurred in retail trade and health care, while mining lost jobs. In 2019, payroll employment growth totaled 2.1 million, compared with a gain of 2.7 million in 2018.

Of course, he is talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs” from the “Current Population Survey (CPS)”
rather than looking at the results reported by actual companies in their “Current Employment Statistics survey (CES)”

This was not a bad jobs report!

For more info see our Current Unemployment Chart and Current U.S. Employment Chart commentary.

November Unemployment- Another Banner Month

December 7, 2019 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for November on December 6^th.

Unemployment returns to 50-year lows. The “Seasonally Adjusted” Unemployment Rate for November fell from 3.6% in October to 3.5% despite the media’s narrative that many employers are either delaying hiring until a breakthrough in the U.S.-China trade war is reached.

November Jobs Report Smashes Expectations Again

Unadjusted U-3 was Unchanged at 3.3%!
Adjusted U-3 was down slightly from 3.6% to 3.5%!
Unadjusted U-6 was Unchanged at 6.5%!
Labor Force Participation retreated slightly from 63.3% to 63.2%.
Unadjusted Employment Up by approx. 660,000 jobs.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 266,000 in November, and the unemployment rate, at 3.5 percent, was little changed. Notable job gains occurred in health care and in professional and technical services. Manufacturing employment increased as workers in motor vehicles and parts returned from a strike. Employment in health care increased by 45,000… Employment rose by 31,000 in professional and technical services… Employment in leisure and hospitality +45,000… Employment in transportation and warehousing +16,000… Employment in financial activities +13,000…

Of course, he is talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs” from the “Current Population Survey (CPS)”
rather than looking at the results reported by actual companies in their “Current Employment Statistics survey (CES)”
Originally the BLS reported 152,962 million jobs for October and they added 40,000 jobs to that estimate. Currently they are estimating 153.624 million jobs for November which is an increase of 662,000 jobs over what they originally reported last month. So what he is actually saying is that there were 266,000 more jobs created in November than is normal for this time of year!

Returning striking General Motors autoworkers added about 30,000 jobs in November, a one-time bounce-back that followed a 30,000 decline in October, when the GM strikers weren’t counted as employed. But even without that 30,000 Manufacturing still added 24,000 additional jobs!

Just days ago, the media and Moody’s Chief Economist Mark Zandi were trying to paint a grim picture for the economy. Zandi told CNBC there was trouble brewing in the jobs market “Manufacturers, commodity producers and retailers are shedding jobs. Job openings are declining, and if job growth slows any further unemployment will increase.”
Instead of a Decrease in jobs we got a massive INCREASE. And the futures market spiked upward on the good news.

For more info see our Current Unemployment Chart and Current U.S. Employment Chart commentary.

October Unemployment- Jobs Much Better Than Expected

November 2, 2019 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for October on November 1^st.

Unemployment is still near record lows. Although the “Seasonally Adjusted” Unemployment Rate for October ticked up from 3.5% in September to 3.6%. However, the unadjusted U-3 Unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.3%. This Jobs report was unexpectedly good despite counting 30,000 “unemployed” strikers at auto manufacturers.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 128,000 in October, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 3.6 percent. Notable employment gains occurred in food services and drinking places, social assistance, and financial activities. Within manufacturing, employment declined in motor vehicles and parts due to strike activity. Federal government employment was down, reflecting a drop in the number of temporary jobs for the 2020 Census.”

Experts had been predicting that the economy would add no more than 75,000 jobs. In fact, MarketWatch on Thursday told readers that
the report would be “a big dud” due to the impact of the General Motors strike on the overall numbers.
If it hadn’t been for the strike the October numbers would have been even better.

Of course, the Commissioner is talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs” from the “Current Population Survey (CPS)”
rather than looking at the results reported by actual companies in the BLS’ “Current Employment Statistics survey (CES)”
in reality, the BLS has done a lot of “Adjusting” over the last few months.
The original CES numbers the BLS reported for August was 151.517 million people employed in August
then later they adjusted it up to 151.607 million. And for September they originally reported there were 151.949 million employed
and currently they are reporting 152.962 million employed so that is an actual increase of 1.013 million NOT and adjusted increase of 128,000!
But in addition to “Seasonal Adjustment”, they adjusted September’s number up to 152.015 million
so the difference between September and October appears to be less than it actually was.

For more info see our Current Unemployment Chart and Current U.S. Employment Chart commentary:

October Jobs Report Smashes Expectations

Unadjusted U-3 was Unchanged at 3.3%!
Adjusted U-3 was up slightly from 3.5% to 3.6%!
Unadjusted U-6 was Unchanged at 6.5%!
Labor Force Participation hits levels not seen since 2013 at recent peak levels of 63.3%.
Unadjusted Employment Up
The unemployment rate for black Americans nudged lower to 5.4 percent, setting a new record,

Key factors in the BLS report were:
Employment in food services and drinking places rose by 48,000 over the month.
Financial activities employment rose by 15,000, with nearly half of the gain occurring in insurance carriers and related activities (+7,000).

Social assistance added 20,000 jobs in October, with most of the gain occurring in individual and family services.

Financial activities added 16,000 jobs.
Professional and business services added 22,000 jobs.

Health care added 15,000 jobs.

Manufacturing employment declined by 36,000 in October.
Employment in motor vehicles and parts manufacturing decreased
by 42,000, reflecting strike activity.

September Unemployment Rate Hits 50-Year Low

October 5, 2019 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for September released on October 4^th. Unemployment is at record lows. According to the BLS, the “Seasonally Adjusted” Unemployment Rate for September fell to 3.5% after spending 3 months at 3.7%. The last time unemployment was this low was in December 1969 almost exactly 50 years ago.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“The unemployment rate declined by 0.2 percentage point to 3.5 percent in September, and nonfarm payroll employment increased by 136,000. Employment continued to trend up in health
care and in professional and business services… Health care employment rose by +39,000 in September… employment continued to trend up in professional and business services +34,000… Employment in transportation and warehousing edged up by +16,000… Government employment also continued to trend up in September +22,000…”

Of course, he is talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs” in reality last month the BLS reported there were 151.517 million people employed in August and this month they are reporting there are 151.949 million employed in September, so that is an increase of 432,000 jobs.

For more info see our Current Unemployment Chart and Current U.S. Employment Chart commentary:

Key September Employment and Unemployment Numbers

This month’s Unemployment report was full of positive news.

Adjusted U-3 Unemployment- 3.5% down from 3.7% June through August.
Unadjusted U-3 Unemployment- 3.3% down from 3.8% in August and 4.0% in July, it was 4.4% in January.
Unadjusted U-6 Unemployment- 6.5% down a whopping -0.8% from 7.3% in August.
Unadjusted Employment (Establishment Survey)- 151.949 up from the 151.517 million the BLS reported in August.
Labor Force Participation Rate- 63.2% unchanged from August but up from 63.0% in July, and 62.9% June.

Key factors in the BLS report were:

Health care employment increased by 39,000

Professional and business services increased by 34,000

Transportation and warehousing increased by 16,000

Government employment increased by 22,000 approximately 1,000 of those were related to the upcoming census.

Hispanic and African American unemployment are both at the lowest levels on record.

July Unemployment Unchanged But…

August 3, 2019 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its monthly unemployment survey results for July on August 2^nd. Unemployment is still near record lows but this month’s Unemployment report was a bit of a “mixed bag” with some positive news and some not quite so positive.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 164,000 in July, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7 percent. Notable job gains occurred in professional and technical services, health care, social assistance, and financial activities.

The July increase in payroll employment was in line with the average monthly job gain in the first half of the year (+165,000), but below the average monthly job gain of 223,000 for 2018. (Incorporating revisions for May and June, which decreased employment by 41,000, monthly job gains have averaged 140,000 over the past 3 months.) ”

Of course he is talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs” in reality there were 152.307 million people employed according to the BLS’ June report and then they adjusted it down to 152.242 million but in July there are only 151.183 million employed so there was either a decrease of -1.059 million jobs based on the new numbers or a decrease of -1.124 million based on the original numbers. But there were only 148.295 million employed in January so there about 2.88 million more people employed in July than in January.

For more info see our Current Unemployment Chart and Current U.S. Employment Chart commentary:

Key July Employment and Unemployment Numbers

Adjusted U-3 Unemployment- 3.7% Unchanged from June
Unadjusted U-3 Unemployment- 4.0% Up from 3.8% in June and 3.4% in May but still below 4.1% in February, and 4.4% in January.
Unadjusted U-6 Unemployment- 7.3% down from 7.5% in June Up from 6.7% in May. It was 7.5% in March, 7.7% in February and 8.8% in January.
Unadjusted Employment (Establishment Survey)- 151.183 million down from 152.307 million in June up from 148.295 million in January.
Labor Force Participation Rate- 63.0% up from 62.9% June, 62.8% in April and May but unchanged from 63.0% in March and still below the peak of 63.2% in February.

Although they rose a notch in June (and stayed there in July), current Seasonally Adjusted U-3 levels are still below the 3.8% lows of 2000. Prior to that, we have to go all the way back to 1969 to see better unemployment levels than we have currently. If we break below 3.4% we have to go all the way back to 1953 (during the Korean War) to find lower levels. And we must remember that there was a massive loss of the workforce due to the war, and a higher percentage of the population was not counted due to “farming”, so we probably won’t see levels that low again. The 1969 lows occurred during the Vietnam war. Prior to 1969 was a low of 3.7% in 1957 so we are currently at that level. As we can see from the above chart we are in one of only 5 “green zones” where unemployment levels are below 4%. Not even the “boom” period 2006-2007 reached such low levels.

Unemployment By State and Political Party

July 19, 2019 by Tim McMahon

Unemployment rates were lower in June in 6 states and stable in 44 states and the District of Columbia, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Three states had jobless rate decreases from a year earlier and 47 states and the District had little or no change.

Vermont had the lowest unemployment rate in June, 2.1 percent. The rates in Alabama (3.5 percent), Arkansas (3.5 percent), New Jersey (3.5 percent), and Texas (3.4 percent) set new series lows. (All state series begin in 1976.) Alaska and Puerto Rico had the highest jobless rates, at 6.4 and 8.4 percent respectively. In total, 13 states had unemployment rates lower than the U.S. figure of 3.7 percent, 9 states and the District of Columbia had higher rates, and 28 states had rates that were not appreciably different from that of the nation.

Table of U.S. State Political Party statistics as of January 2019

I’ve sorted the following table by political party. If we look at it this way, we can see that [Read more…] about Unemployment By State and Political Party

unemployment

February Jobs Report Smashes Expectations

Key January Employment and Unemployment Numbers

December Jobs Report

November Jobs Report Smashes Expectations Again

October Jobs Report Smashes Expectations

Key September Employment and Unemployment Numbers

File for Unemployment

Alert Your Creditors

Key July Employment and Unemployment Numbers

Table of U.S. State Political Party statistics as of January 2019