unemployment

January Unemployment Almost “Record Setting”

February 3, 2018 by Tim McMahon

January Unemployment is almost record setting… but not for the reason you might think.

On Friday February 2^nd the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly employment survey results for the month of January. According to the BLS the Seasonally Adjusted U-3 Unemployment Rate for January is unchanged for the almost record setting 4th month in a row. That’s right from October through January the Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment rate has been 4.1%. This is a very low level and we really don’t expect it to get too much lower but the interesting part is that the unadjusted U-3 was 3.9% from October through December (resulting in the adjusted rate being 4.1%) but then in January the unadjusted rate jumped to 4.5% (a 0.6% increase) and the adjusted U-3 remained the same at 4.1%. This is because typically January sees an uptick in unemployment as all the seasonal employees get laid-off. So we would expect some sort of uptick in unadjusted unemployment rate. But because the Seasonally Adjusted U3 was unchanged for the month the current increase in the unadjusted U-3 was actually no greater or less than normal. See Current Unemployment Chart for more info.

U-6 Unemployment

Over the same period, Unadjusted U-6 unemployment which is a broader measure of Unemployment including discouraged workers, climbed steadily.

It was 7.6% in October, then 7.7% in November, then 8.0% in December, and finally 8.9% in January.

This is still significantly better than a year ago when in November 2016 Unadjusted U-6 was 9% and had climbed to 10.1% by January 2017.

See Unadjusted U-6 unemployment for more info.

Employment

Over the last month, the actual number of people working (not seasonally adjusted) has decreased by [Read more…] about January Unemployment Almost “Record Setting”

December Retail Employment Down

January 6, 2018 by Tim McMahon

On Friday January 5^th the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly employment survey results for the month of December. Many of the numbers remained unchanged from November which was also unchanged from October.

Unemployment

According to the BLS Seasonally Adjusted U-3 was 4.1% since October while Unadjusted U-3 was 3.9% for three months. Unadjusted U-6 unemployment which is a broader measure of Unemployment rose from 7.6% in October to 7.7% in November to 8.0% in December. This is still significantly better than a year ago when in November 2016 Unadjusted U-6 was 9% and December was 9.1%.

Typically January sees an uptick in unemployment as all the seasonal employees get laid-off. So we would expect some sort of uptick next month.

According to the BLS Commissioner’s report for this month:

“Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for teenagers declined to 13.6 percent in December, offsetting an increase in November. In December, the unemployment rates for adult men (3.8 percent), adult women (3.7 percent), Whites (3.7 percent), Blacks (6.8 percent), Asians (2.5 percent), and Hispanics (4.9 percent) showed little or no change.”

See: Current Unemployment Rate Chart for more info.

Employment

Back in October, employment was 147,952,000 in November it rose to 148,526,000 but then it fell slightly in December to 148,346,000 for a net loss from November to December of 180,000 jobs. The BLS Commissioner’s report however said, “Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 148,000 in December…” That is because he is talking about “Seasonally Adjusted” jobs. Meaning that although actual jobs are down, they are down by 148,000 less than average for this time of year.

See Current Employment Commentary and Historical Employment Commentary

Labor Force Participation Rate

You might be wondering if [Read more…] about December Retail Employment Down

Manufacturing Jobs Soar Under Trump

December 9, 2017 by Tim McMahon

On Friday December 8^th the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly employment survey results for the month of November.

According to the BLS the Unemployment for November is virtually unchanged from October to November on both an Unadjusted and Seasonally Adjusted basis. Seasonally Adjusted U-3 was 4.1% for both months while Unadjusted U-3 was 3.9% for both months. Unadjusted U-6 unemployment which is a broader measure of Unemployment rose slightly from 7.6% in October to 7.7% in November. This is still significantly better than a year ago when in November 2016 Unadjusted U-6 was 9%.

Unemployment

Over the last month, the actual number of people working has increased by 532,000 and the civilian non-institutional population (a fairly narrow measurement of population) has increased by a very low 183,000.

This means that not only has the increase in jobs kept up with the increase in the population but it was actually almost 3 times greater than the population growth! And since only about half of the population is working, job growth has far exceeded the level needed to keep things on a steady keel. See: Current Unemployment Rate Chart for more info.

Employment

Employment was 147,975,000 in October (148,006,000 when the numbers were originally released in November) and the current numbers for employment are 148,507,000 in November for a net gain of 501,000 over the original October numbers or 532,000 increase over the new October numbers.

See Employment Commentary.

Although unemployment rates are virtually unchanged the Employment numbers tell a slightly different story. According to [Read more…] about Manufacturing Jobs Soar Under Trump

What You Can do When Your Unemployment Benefits are Denied

October 31, 2017 by Guest Contributor

Benefits denied!

That’s the last thing you want to hear after losing your job and applying for unemployment benefits. But, don’t give up! There’s still hope, thanks mainly to the appeal process.

Reasons for Denial

There are several valid reasons for denial of benefits, including:

Voluntarily leaving the workplace without just cause
Being discharged for work misconduct
Not being able or available for work
Refusing an offer of suitable work
Knowingly making false statements to obtain benefits

If you don’t agree with the reason provided for the denial of unemployment benefits, you can appeal the decision. So, how exactly do you appeal a denial of unemployment benefits?

Act Fast

Time is key in the appeal process. Depending on the state’s requirements, you have somewhere between 10 and 30 days to request an appeal. Unemployment agencies are sticklers for timeframes so missing a deadline without good reason will not help your chances.

It’s OK to go Pro Se

You don’t have to hire an attorney to [Read more…] about What You Can do When Your Unemployment Benefits are Denied

September Unemployment Rate Down

October 7, 2017 by Tim McMahon

On Friday October 6^th the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly employment survey results for the month of September. Every month the BLS conducts two surveys one contacts a sampling of households and the other collects data from businesses. Then they massage some of the numbers to “Seasonally Adjust” them and release them to the media.

According to the BLS, the current “Seasonally Adjusted” Unemployment Rate for September (released October 6^th) is 4.2% DOWN from 4.4% in August. The current “Unadjusted” rate is 4.1% down from 4.5% in August.

Seasonal adjustment provides something like a moving average leveling out the bumps due to normal seasonal variations. See: Unadjusted vs. Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate for more information about Seasonal Adjustment.

According to the BLS Commissioner’s report for this month:

“The unemployment rate declined to 4.2 percent in September, and total nonfarm payroll employment changed little (-33,000), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. A sharp employment decline in food services and drinking places and below-trend growth in some other industries likely reflected the impact of Hurricanes Irma and Harvey. “

See: Current Unemployment Rate Chart for more info.

In the very next paragraph, based on the Household Unemployment Survey, he said, “The unemployment rate decreased by 0.2 percentage point to 4.2 percent in September, and the number of unemployed persons declined by 331,000 to 6.8 million. Both measures were down over the year.”

Declining unemployment means more jobs! So which is it 331,000 more jobs? -33,000 fewer jobs? Or 340,000 more jobs? [Read more…] about September Unemployment Rate Down

Worldwide Unemployment Rates

August 16, 2017 by Tim McMahon

OECD Unemployment — Image courtesy of: BlogPiks.com

On Friday August 11^th the OECD published the Unemployment rates of its member countries. They call it the “Harmonised Unemployment Rate” meaning that they may adjust the rate depending on how the individual countries calculate it so they are comparable.

Note: The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) is an intergovernmental economic organisation with 35 member countries, founded in 1960 to stimulate economic progress and world trade, headquartered in Paris France. In addition to its other functions the OECD publishes books, reports, statistics, working papers and reference materials.

The countries with the highest unemployment rates were:

Top 6 Highest Unemployment Rates in OECD Countries

Based on the most recent numbers we have for each country, we can see from the table below that the six countries with the highest unemployment rates are all [Read more…] about Worldwide Unemployment Rates

1 Million Fewer Jobs but BLS Says 209 K More

August 4, 2017 by Tim McMahon

U-3 Unemployment

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their employment and unemployment numbers for July on Friday August 4^th. The Seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate was down from 4.4% in June to 4.3% in July. Unadjusted U-3 however was up from 4.5% to 4.6%. U3 is the Official unemployment rate per the International Labor Organization definition. It occurs when people are without jobs and they have actively looked for work within the past four weeks.

U-6 Unemployment

U-6 unemployment is the broadest category of unemployment and includes U3 plus “discouraged workers”, plus other “marginally attached workers”, plus part-time workers who want to work full-time, but cannot due to economic reasons. U-6 was unchanged from June at 8.9%.

Employment

The Commissioner of the BLS released this statement, “Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 209,000 in July, and the unemployment rate, at 4.3 percent, was little changed. Job gains occurred in food services and drinking places, professional and business services, and health care. Employment growth has averaged 184,000 per month thus far this year, in line with the average monthly gain in 2016 (+187,000). “

However if we look at the actual employment data we get a different picture. [Read more…] about 1 Million Fewer Jobs but BLS Says 209 K More

Comparing Bureau of Labor Statistics Unemployment Numbers to an Independent Source

August 4, 2017 by Tim McMahon

NOTE: Gallup has STOPPED publishing their Unemployment Numbers effective in July 2017. This includes U-3, Underemployment (U-6), and Good Jobs Index (Payroll to Population Rate).

From 2010-2017, the Gallup Survey people both generated numbers to help us understand the employment/unemployment situation. Unfortunately, they often presented a different picture from the numbers generated by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Typically the BLS data presented a rosier picture than the independently surveyed Gallup numbers.

Often in the summer, the gap between the BLS and the Gallup closed. In July 2016, the BLS and the Gallup numbers came in identical. Early in 2017 the gap widened to 1.3% in April but has narrowed again to 0.6% in June.

For June 2017 Gallup said unadjusted U-3 unemployment was 5.1% down from 5.2% in May and 5.4% in April while the BLS said it was 4.5% up from 4.1% in May and April. So the spread is currently 0.6%.

Whose Unemployment Numbers are Right?

There has been some talk about “full employment” in the media of late and if we look at the Unemployment numbers created by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) we might get that impression. If we look at the Employment numbers rather than the Unemployment Rate we see a significant increase but it hasn’t been until recent months that the increase has actually outpaced the growth in the population.

We’ve looked at Employment vs. Unemployment on other pages to see how they compare and we’ve looked at U-6 (total labor force including those who’ve given up looking) vs. U-3 (those who are still actively looking). The U-3 unemployment rate is the commonly quoted one. But the one problem is that all that data comes from the government. If they are fudging the numbers how would we know? Unless as we’ve noted before there are inconsistencies between the Unemployment and Employment Charts. But we [Read more…] about Comparing Bureau of Labor Statistics Unemployment Numbers to an Independent Source

May Employment and Unemployment Numbers

June 2, 2017 by Tim McMahon

The U.S.Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the May unemployment numbers today. The BLS Commissioner says: Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 138,000 in May, but these are Seasonally Adjusted numbers. So since typically employment increases in May, what he is saying is that 138,000 more jobs than average were created. In unadjusted terms employment was 145.938 million in April and 146.748 in May for a net gain of 810,000 jobs. Adjusted U-3 Unemployment was 4.3% down from 4.4% in April. Unadjusted U-3 Unemployment was 4.1% unchanged from April.

Gallup Unadjusted U-3 was 5.2% down from 5.4% in April. Gallup’s unadjusted U-6 Unemployment was 8.1% unchanged from April. Gallup’s U-6 was 13.8% Down from 14.0% in April.

May Employment Gain and Loss Bubbles

In the following chart from the BLS we can see [Read more…] about May Employment and Unemployment Numbers

Tips for Coping with Unemployment

May 15, 2017 by Tim McMahon

Unemployment is tough, not only are there financial repercussions, but there are psychological ones as well. Getting laid-off no matter whether it is due to adverse nationwide economic conditions, or due to personal errors in judgement, it’s still painful. According to a Gallup poll Depression Rates are Higher for Long-Term Unemployed. “The longer that Americans are unemployed, the more likely they are to report signs of poor psychological well-being. About one in five Americans who have been unemployed for a year or more say they currently have or are being treated for depression — almost double the rate among those who have been unemployed for five weeks or less.”

On the other hand, Healthy Eating Linked to Lower Likelihood of Depression so even if you’ve been fired, you need to continue to take care of yourself and eat healthy meals.

Unemployment can initially result in our systems going into a form of “shock” which makes it difficult to think clearly and so we tend to get depressed and just “shut-down”. But it is important to act quickly to minimize the negative impact on both yourself and anyone who is depending on you.

1) Cut Back on Expenses

The first thing you need to [Read more…] about Tips for Coping with Unemployment