employment

August Unemployment Improves as Pandemic Benefits Expire

September 4, 2021 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their employment / unemployment report for August.

Unadjusted U-3 was Down from 5.7% to 5.3%
Adjusted U-3 was Down from 5.4% to 5.2%
Unadjusted U-6 was Down from 9.6% to 8.9%
Labor Force Participation unchanged at 61.7%
Unadjusted Employment rose from 146.544 million to 146.856 million

The Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation program, which extends unemployment benefits by up to 24 weeks for those who have exhausted regular unemployment aid, and the $300 weekly supplement to state unemployment benefits, are due to expire on September 6. This may be the motivation some unemployed individuals needed to get back to work. Many have complained that the government assistance was paying certain people at the lower end of the payscale more to stay home than they could earn by going to work.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 235,000 in August, and the unemployment rate declined by 0.2 percentage point to 5.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. So far this year, monthly job growth has averaged 586,000. In August, notable job gains occurred in professional and business services, transportation and warehousing, private education, manufacturing, and other services. Employment in retail trade declined over the month.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs” from the “Current Population Survey (CPS)” rather than looking at the results reported by actual companies in their “Current Employment Statistics survey (CES)”

But looking at the CES report we see…

Originally the BLS reported 146.470 for July which they adjusted to 146.544 million. For August they are currently saying employment is 146.856 million which is actually an increase of 386,000 jobs based on their original estimates or an increase of 312,000 based on their updated numbers.

Unemployment Falls in July

August 7, 2021 by Tim McMahon

Highlights from the August 6^th Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) employment / unemployment report for July.

Unadjusted U-3 was Down from 6.1% to 5.7%
Adjusted U-3 was Down from 5.9% to 5.4%
Unadjusted U-6 was Down from 10.1% to 9.6%
Labor Force Participation UP from 61.6% to 61.7%
Unadjusted Employment fell from 146.603 million to 146.470 million

June Employment and Unemployment Both Up

July 3, 2021 by Tim McMahon

Highlights from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) employment / unemployment report for June released on July 2^nd.

Unadjusted U-3 was UP from 5.5% to 6.1%
Adjusted U-3 was UP from 5.8% to 5.9%
Unadjusted U-6 was UP from 9.7% to 10.1%
Labor Force Participation unchanged at 61.6%
Unadjusted Employment rose from 145.385 million to 146.517 million

May Unemployment Down

June 5, 2021 by Tim McMahon

Highlights from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) employment / unemployment report for May released on June 4^th.

Unadjusted U-3 was Down from 5.7% to 5.5%
Adjusted U-3 was Down from 6.1% to 5.8%
Unadjusted U-6 was Down from 9.9% to 9.7%
Labor Force Participation fell from 61.7% to 61.6%
Unadjusted Employment rose from 144.412 million to 145.385 million

April Unemployment Report “Disappointing”

May 10, 2021 by Tim McMahon

Highlights from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) employment / unemployment report for April released on May 7^th.

Unadjusted U-3 was Down from 6.2% to 5.7%
Adjusted U-3 was Up from 6.0% to 6.1%
Unadjusted U-6 was Down from 10.9% to 9.9%
Labor Force Participation rose from 61.5% to 61.7%
Unadjusted Employment rose from 143.309 million to 144.398

MSN classified this unemployment report as “disappointing” and the “greatest test yet of President Biden’s strategy to revive the pandemic economic recovery“.
There has been speculation that expanded unemployment benefits are making people reluctant to renter the labor market since generous unemployment benefits are more than they earn at minimum wage jobs. To counteract this, states like Montana are canceling Federal COVID unemployment benefits in an effort to encourage people to go back to work.

According to CNBC: “Montana opts to end $300 unemployment boost. Other states may, too.”

CNBC KEY POINTS:

Montana Gov. Greg Gianforte, a Republican, is ending participation in federal programs that expanded and raised unemployment benefits on June 27.
The American Rescue Plan, a $1.9 trillion Covid relief bill President Joe Biden signed in March, offered them through Labor Day.
Gianforte is instead offering a $1,200 return-to-work bonus to address a labor shortage. Some experts question the move.

Buried in the middle of the article is this quote:

“Montana is turning down expanded federal benefits to address a “severe workforce shortage,” Gianforte said. The state’s labor force is 10,000 workers smaller than before the pandemic and its 3.8% unemployment rate is near pre-Covid lows.

So despite the fact that “Some ‘experts’ question the move” unemployment levels are not “disappointing” in Montana at least, in fact, quite the opposite… they are having trouble finding workers.

March Unemployment Shows a Slight Improvement

April 3, 2021 by Tim McMahon

Highlights from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) employment / unemployment report for March released on April 2^nd.

Unadjusted U-3 was Down from 6.6% to 6.2%
Adjusted U-3 was Down from 6.2% to 6.0%
Unadjusted U-6 was Down from 11.6% to 10.9%
Labor Force Participation rose from 61.4% to 61.5%
Unadjusted Employment rose from 142.077 million to 143.400 million

February Employment Shows Improvement in Leisure and Hospitality

March 6, 2021 by Tim McMahon

Highlights from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) employment / unemployment report for February released on March 5^th.

Unadjusted U-3 was Down from 6.8% to 6.6%
Adjusted U-3 was Down from 6.3% to 6.2%
Unadjusted U-6 was Down from 12.0% to 11.6%
Labor Force Participation held steady at 61.4%
Unadjusted Employment rose from 140.948 million to 141.926 million

Unadjusted Employment Down Slightly in December

January 9, 2021 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for December on January 8^th.

Unadjusted U-3 was Up from 6.4% to 6.5%
Adjusted U-3 was unchanged at 6.7%
Unadjusted U-6 was unchanged at 11.6%
Labor Force Participation was unchanged at 61.5%
Unadjusted Employment Down from 144.105 million to 143.777 million

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Nonfarm payroll employment declined by 140,000 in December, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.7 percent. The decline in payroll employment reflects the recent rise in the number of coronavirus (COVID-19) cases and increased efforts to contain the pandemic. In December, job losses in leisure and hospitality and in private education were partially offset by gains elsewhere, particularly in professional and business services, retail trade, and construction.“

Of course, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs” from the “Current Population Survey (CPS)” rather than looking at the results reported by actual companies in their “Current Employment Statistics survey (CES)”

Looking at the CES report we see…
Originally the BLS reported 144.005 million jobs for November, this month they adjusted that to 144.105 million.
So currently they are saying 143.777 million jobs for December and 144.105 million for November.
which is actually a decrease of 228,000 jobs based on their original estimates.

Employment Increased by 1/2 Million in November

December 5, 2020 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for November on December 4^th.

Unadjusted U-3 was Down from 6.6% to 6.4%
Adjusted U-3 was Down from 6.9% to 6.7%
Unadjusted U-6 was unchanged at 11.6%
Labor Force Participation fell from 61.7% to 61.5%
Unadjusted Employment up from 143.488 million to 144.005 million

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 245,000 in November, and the unemployment rate edged down to 6.7 percent. These improvements reflect the continued resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed due to the coronavirus (COVID- 19) pandemic and efforts to contain it. However, the pace of improvement in the labor market has moderated in recent months.”

But looking at the CES report we see…
Originally the BLS reported 143.459 million jobs for October, this month they only adjusted that slightly.
So currently they are saying 143.488 million jobs for October and 144.005 million for November.
which is actually an increase of 546,000 jobs based on their original estimates.

September Employment Up 1.25 Million not 661,000

October 3, 2020 by Tim McMahon

Employment Increased by 1.25 Million in September

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for September on October 2nd.

Unadjusted U-3 was Down from 8.5% to 7.7%!
Adjusted U-3 was Down from 8.4% to 7.9%!
Unadjusted U-6 was Down from 14.3% to 12.4%!
Labor Force Participation fell from 61.7% to 61.4%.
Unadjusted Employment up from 140.718 million to 141.855 million.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 661,000 in September, and the unemployment rate fell to 7.9 percent. These improvements reflect the continued resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts to contain it.

In September, employment continued to increase in several industries, with the largest gains in leisure and hospitality, in retail trade, in health care and social assistance, and in professional and business services. By contrast, employment declined in government, mainly in state and local government education.”

Of course, he is talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs” from the “Current Population Survey (CPS)” rather than looking at the results reported by actual companies in their “Current Employment Statistics survey (CES)”

But looking at the CES report we see…
Originally the BLS reported 140.598 million jobs for August, they added 120,000 jobs since that estimate.
So currently they are saying 140.718 million jobs for August and 141.855 million jobs for September which is actually an increase of 1,257,000 jobs based on their original estimates.