BLS

January Employment the Good and Bad

February 2, 2019 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly unemployment survey results for January on February 1^st. “Seasonally Adjusted” Unemployment U-3 is 4.0% up from 3.9% in December. Unadjusted U-3 was 4.4% up from 3.7% in December and 3.5% in November.

Looking back, Seasonally Adjusted U-3 started 2017 at 4.8% then it bounced around between 4.3% and 4.4% from April through October 2017, then it stayed at 4.1% from October 2017 through March 2018. It bounced between 3.8% and 4.0% from April through August 2018 before falling to 3.7% in September – November. So unemployment is currently at the same level as it was from April through August 2018.

Key January Employment and Unemployment Numbers

Adjusted U-3 Unemployment- 4.0% up from 3.9% in December and 3.7% in November.
Unadjusted U-3 Unemployment- 4.4% up from 3.7% in December and 3.5% in November.
Unadjusted U-6 Unemployment- 8.8% up from 7.5% in December and 7.2% in November.
Unadjusted Employment- 148.201 million down from 151.190 million in December and 151.244 million in November.
January Labor Force Participation Rate- 63.2% up from 63.1% in December and LFPR 62.9%.
100th straight gain in Seasonally Adjusted Employment

As I have been saying for a while [Read more…] about January Employment the Good and Bad

December “Monster” Jobs Report (or is it?)

January 5, 2019 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly unemployment survey results for December on January 4^thand some are calling it a “monster” jobs report causing the DOW to gain almost 747 points (3.29%). The reason for this is that the “Seasonally Adjusted” jobs number was up 312,000 while the consensus was expecting an increase of only 176,000.

However all is not roses in employment land. There are a few thorns in the jobs report. Both Adjusted and Unadjusted Unemployment were actually up and Unadjusted Employment was down.

Adjusted U-3 was 3.9% up from 3.7% in November. Unadjusted U-3 was 3.7% up from 3.5% in November. Unadjusted U-6 was also up from 7.2% in November to 7.5% in December. Unadjusted Employment- 151.190 million down from 151.244 million in November. All of this sounds Bad! The major factor that the market has latched onto in this report is the Labor Force Participation Rate which has bounced above 63% for the first time since 2014. See Labor Force Participation below for more.

As I have been saying for a while typically unemployment doesn’t stay below 4% for very long. As we can see from the chart below the dip in 2006-7 didn’t even get below 4%. The 2000 dip only spent a couple of months below 4%. The 1960, 1973, ’79 and ’89 dips didn’t get below 4% at all.

The three major exceptions are: [Read more…] about December “Monster” Jobs Report (or is it?)

November Employment Gains Less Than Projected But…

December 8, 2018 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly unemployment survey results for November on December 7^th. Unadjusted U-3 and “Seasonally Adjusted” Unemployment U-3 were unchanged. Adjusted U-3 was 3.7% for the third month in a row while unadjusted was 3.5% for the second month. This is the lowest level since December 1969 when Adjusted U-3 was 3.5%. The lowest level reached in the 1968-1969 timeframe was 3.4% where it hovered from September 1968 through May 1969. The only other time that unemployment was this low since they began tracking unemployment in 1948 was briefly in 1948 and again in 1951-53.

Remember that the world population had just been drastically reduced through WWII (ending in 1945) so there were much fewer working age men available. So it is unlikely that we will see unemployment at 1953 levels again.

Key November Employment and Unemployment Numbers

Adjusted U-3 Unemployment- 3.7% unchanged since September down from 3.9% in August, This is the lowest Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment rate since 1969.
Unadjusted U-3 Unemployment- 3.5% unchanged from October down from 3.6% in September and 3.9% in August and 4.1% in July and 4.2% in June.
Unadjusted U-6 Unemployment- 7.2% up from 7.0% in October and 7.1% in September still below the 7.4% in August and 7.9% in July, 8.1% in June.
Employment 151.232 million up from 150.757 million in October. (475,000 more jobs)
November Labor Force Participation Rate 62.9% unchanged from October but up from 62.7% in September. (Higher is Better)

See Current Unemployment Chart for more info.

Previous Record Low Unemployment (Seasonally Adjusted U-3)

	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
1950	6.5%	6.4%	6.3%	5.8%	5.5%	5.4%	5.0%	4.5%	4.4%	4.2%	4.2%	4.3%
1951	3.7%	3.4%	3.4%	3.1%	3.0%	3.2%	3.1%	3.1%	3.3%	3.5%	3.5%	3.1%
1952	3.2%	3.1%	2.9%	2.9%	3.0%	3.0%	3.2%	3.4%	3.1%	3.0%	2.8%	2.7%
1953	2.9%	2.6%	2.6%	2.7%	2.5%	2.5%	2.6%	2.7%	2.9%	3.1%	3.5%	4.5%
1954	4.9%	5.2%	5.7%	5.9%	5.9%	5.6%	5.8%	6.0%	6.1%	5.7%	5.3%	5.0%
…	…	…	…	…	…	…	…	…	…	…	…	…
1965	4.9%	5.1%	4.7%	4.8%	4.6%	4.6%	4.4%	4.4%	4.3%	4.2%	4.1%	4.0%
1966	4.0%	3.8%	3.8%	3.8%	3.9%	3.8%	3.8%	3.8%	3.7%	3.7%	3.6%	3.8%
1967	3.9%	3.8%	3.8%	3.8%	3.8%	3.9%	3.8%	3.8%	3.8%	4.0%	3.9%	3.8%
1968	3.7%	3.8%	3.7%	3.5%	3.5%	3.7%	3.7%	3.5%	3.4%	3.4%	3.4%	3.4%
1969	3.4%	3.4%	3.4%	3.4%	3.4%	3.5%	3.5%	3.5%	3.7%	3.7%	3.5%	3.5%
1970	3.9%	4.2%	4.4%	4.6%	4.8%	4.9%	5.0%	5.1%	5.4%	5.5%	5.9%	6.1%

Employment

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner’s report:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 155,000 in November, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.7 percent.
Job gains occurred in health care, in manufacturing, and in transportation and warehousing.”

November Employment Gains Less Than Projected But…

The stock market is fretting because projections called for an increase of 195,000 (seasonally adjusted jobs) and we “only” got 155,000 but Employment is at a new all time record 151.232 million up from 150.757 million in October. The previous high was set in June 2018 at 150.040 million. So, although the “Seasonally Adjusted” jobs increase was “only” 155,000 there were 475,000 more actual jobs.

Incidentally, last month adjusted jobs exceeded projections by almost exactly the same amount as they fell short this month. So one could argue that the two month increase is exactly on projection.

Employment by Sector

The employment “bubble chart” gives us a good representation of how each sector of the economy is doing (employment wise). As we can see from the chart below [Read more…] about November Employment Gains Less Than Projected But…

October Employment Hits New Record High

November 3, 2018 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly unemployment survey results for October on November 2^nd. Unadjusted U-3 and U-6 Unemployment is down again and “Seasonally Adjusted” Unemployment U-3 was 3.7% for the second month in a row. This is the lowest level since December 1969 when it was 3.5%. The lowest level reached in the 1968-1969 timeframe was 3.4% where it hovered from September 1968 through May 1969. The only other time that unemployment was this low since they began tracking unemployment in 1948 was briefly in 1948 and again in 1951-53.

Employment is at an all time record 150.753 million the previous high was set in June 2018. Last month employment was 149.738 million so the actual increase in jobs was over 1 million, although the “Seasonally Adjusted” jobs increase was “only” 250,000. Even that was significantly higher than the projected 208,000.

Previous Record Low Unemployment

	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
1965	4.9%	5.1%	4.7%	4.8%	4.6%	4.6%	4.4%	4.4%	4.3%	4.2%	4.1%	4.0%
1966	4.0%	3.8%	3.8%	3.8%	3.9%	3.8%	3.8%	3.8%	3.7%	3.7%	3.6%	3.8%
1967	3.9%	3.8%	3.8%	3.8%	3.8%	3.9%	3.8%	3.8%	3.8%	4.0%	3.9%	3.8%
1968	3.7%	3.8%	3.7%	3.5%	3.5%	3.7%	3.7%	3.5%	3.4%	3.4%	3.4%	3.4%
1969	3.4%	3.4%	3.4%	3.4%	3.4%	3.5%	3.5%	3.5%	3.7%	3.7%	3.5%	3.5%
1970	3.9%	4.2%	4.4%	4.6%	4.8%	4.9%	5.0%	5.1%	5.4%	5.5%	5.9%	6.1%

Key October Employment and Unemployment Numbers

Adjusted U-3 Unemployment- 3.7% unchanged from September down from 3.9% in August.
Unadjusted U-3 Unemployment- 3.5% down from 3.6% in September and 3.9% in August and 4.1% in July and 4.2% in June.
Unadjusted U-6 Unemployment- 7.0% down from 7.1% in September and 7.4% in August and 7.9% in July, 8.1% in June.
Employment 150.753 million up from 149.741 million in September. (Yes over a Million more jobs!)
October Labor Force Participation Rate 62.9% up from 62.7% in September. (Higher is Better)

See Current Unemployment Chart for more info.

The Differential between U3 and U6 Remains Near September 2006 Lows

Last month the differential between the unadjusted U3 and U6 (reached by subtracting U3 from U6) was at 3.5% and remains there for the 3rd month in a row.

See Current U-6 Unemployment Rate for more info.

Employment by Sector

The employment “bubble chart” gives us a good representation of how each sector of the economy is doing (employment wise). As we can see from the chart below [Read more…] about October Employment Hits New Record High

Arkansas, California, Idaho, South Carolina, Texas and Washington Set New Unemployment Lows in September

October 20, 2018 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Unemployment rates by state on Friday October 19^th. Seasonally adjusted unemployment rates for September fell over the previous month in 9 states, were higher in 4 states, and stable in 37 states and the District of Columbia.

Nonfarm payroll employment increased in 1 state, decreased in 9 states, and was stable in 37 states and D.C.

In the following map we can see the states with the lowest unemployment are light colored while the higher unemployment states are darker colored.

Unemployment

Arkansas, California, Idaho, South Carolina, Texas and Washington Set New Series Lows

Hawaii had the lowest seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in September, at 2.2%. Arkansas (3.5%), California (4.1%), Idaho (2.7%), South Carolina (3.3%), Texas (3.8%), and Washington (4.4%) set a new series low since tracking began in 1976. At 6.5% Alaska had the highest jobless rate, not counting Puerto Rico’s 8.4% which is down 2.2% from year ago levels. In total, 13 states had unemployment rates lower than the U.S. figure of 3.7 percent, 12 states plus the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico had higher rates, and 25 states had [Read more…] about Arkansas, California, Idaho, South Carolina, Texas and Washington Set New Unemployment Lows in September

Unemployment Reaches Lowest Point Since 1969

October 6, 2018 by Tim McMahon

According to the the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) monthly unemployment survey results for the month of September 2018 the current “Seasonally Adjusted” Unemployment Rate for September is 3.7% the lowest level since December 1969 when it was 3.5%. Unfortunately, by December 1970 unemployment was up to 6.1%.

The lowest level reached in the 1968-1969 timeframe was 3.4% where it hovered from September 1968 through May 1969. The only other time that unemployment was this low since they began tracking unemployment in 1948 was briefly in 1948 and again in 1951-53.

	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
1965	4.9%	5.1%	4.7%	4.8%	4.6%	4.6%	4.4%	4.4%	4.3%	4.2%	4.1%	4.0%
1966	4.0%	3.8%	3.8%	3.8%	3.9%	3.8%	3.8%	3.8%	3.7%	3.7%	3.6%	3.8%
1967	3.9%	3.8%	3.8%	3.8%	3.8%	3.9%	3.8%	3.8%	3.8%	4.0%	3.9%	3.8%
1968	3.7%	3.8%	3.7%	3.5%	3.5%	3.7%	3.7%	3.5%	3.4%	3.4%	3.4%	3.4%
1969	3.4%	3.4%	3.4%	3.4%	3.4%	3.5%	3.5%	3.5%	3.7%	3.7%	3.5%	3.5%
1970	3.9%	4.2%	4.4%	4.6%	4.8%	4.9%	5.0%	5.1%	5.4%	5.5%	5.9%	6.1%

Key September Employment and Unemployment Numbers

Adjusted U-3 Unemployment: 3.7% down from 3.9% in August, This is the lowest Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment rate since 1969.
Unadjusted U-3 Unemployment: 3.6% down from 3.9% in August and 4.1% in July and 4.2% in June.
Unadjusted U-6 Unemployment: 7.1% down from 7.4% in August and 7.9% in July, 8.1% in June, and below record lows of 7.3% in May, and 7.4% in April.
Employment: 149.741 million up from 149.226 million originally reported for August.
September Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.7% unchanged from August but down from July 62.9%.

See Current Unemployment Chart for more info.

Full Employment is Near – Differential between U3 and U6 nearing September 2006 Lows

Last month we incorrectly reported that the differential between the unadjusted U3 and U6 (reached by subtracting U3 from U6) was at 3.2% when in fact it was only at 3.5% so it still had a little way to go to reach the 3.2% low of September 2006. This month, although both U3 and U6 have fallen the differential remains at the 3.5% level.

See Current U-6 Unemployment Rate for more info.

Employment by Sector

The employment “bubble chart” gives us a good representation of how each sector of the economy is doing (employment wise). As we can see from the chart below [Read more…] about Unemployment Reaches Lowest Point Since 1969

Full Employment is Near – Differential between U3 and U6 reaches September 2006 Lows

September 8, 2018 by Tim McMahon

Correction: The differential was only 3.5% in August 2018 and 3.2% in September 2006 so we are only nearing the 2006 level not at the 2006 level.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly employment survey results for the month of August on September 7^th .

The current “Seasonally Adjusted” Unemployment Rate for August (released September 7^th) is 3.9% unchanged from last month.

Looking back, Seasonally Adjusted U-3 started 2017 at 4.8% then it bounced around between 4.3% and 4.4% from April through October 2017, then it was 4.1% from October 2017 through March 2018. It was 3.9% in April, 3.8% in May, 4.0% in June, and 3.9% in July.

Typically Unemployment levels are worse in June and July so seasonally adjusting takes that into consideration.

	Unadjusted U-3	Unadjusted U-3
	2017	2018
May	4.1%	3.6%
June	4.5%	4.2%
July	4.6%	4.1%
August	4.5%	3.9%

Key August Employment and Unemployment Numbers

Adjusted U-3 Unemployment- 3.9% unchanged from July, down from 4.0% in June but above the 3.8% in May, it was 3.9% in April but still Below the 4.1% October 2017 – March 2018.
Unadjusted U-3 Unemployment- 3.9% down from 4.1% in July and 4.2% in June but still above the 3.6% in May, and 3.7% in April below the 4.1% in March.
Unadjusted U-6 Unemployment- 7.4% down from 7.9% in July, 8.1% in June, up slightly from record lows of 7.3% in May, and 7.4% in April. Below the 8.1% in March and 8.6% in February.
Employment 149.226 million up from 148.901 million in July.
August Labor Force Participation Rate 62.7% down from July LFPR 62.9%

See Current Unemployment Chart for more info.

Full Employment is Near – Differential between U3 and U6 reaches September 2006 Lows

In August we saw a massive drop in the differential between U-3 and U-6 so perhaps we are getting closer to “full employment” the lows on this chart are at 2.7% in October 2000 and 3.2% in September 2006. Since the current differential is once again 3.2% we have reached the lows of 2006. Back in January 2017 the media was saying that we were at “Full Employment” and we couldn’t expect anything better, manufacturing jobs would never come back etc. At that time I said we had a long way to go and that the differential between the U-6 and U-3 was nowhere near bottoming (the sign of full employment) at the time the differential was around 5%. See: Is the U.S. Really at “Full Employment”? But with the differential currently at 3.2% now we are at or very near that level. Since October 2000 reached a low of 2.7% we could still go a bit lower.

See Current U-6 Unemployment Rate for more info.

Employment by Sector

The employment “bubble chart” gives us a good representation of how each sector of the economy is doing (employment wise). As we can see from the chart below [Read more…] about Full Employment is Near – Differential between U3 and U6 reaches September 2006 Lows

Unemployment Rates by State July 2018

August 17, 2018 by Tim McMahon

According to today’s U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics report on Unemployment rates by state, Seasonally adjusted unemployment rates for July fell over the previous month in 11 states, were higher in 2 states, and stable in 37 states and the District of Columbia. Ten states saw jobless rate decreases from July 2017 levels and 40 states and D.C. had little or no change.

Nonfarm payroll employment increased in 6 states in July 2018, decreased in 1 state, and was virtually unchanged in 43 states and D.C. Over the year, 34 states added nonfarm payroll jobs and 16 states and D.C. were essentially unchanged.

In the following map we can see the states with the lowest unemployment are light colored while the higher unemployment states are darker colored.

Unemployment

“Oregon lowest unemployment since 1976”

Hawaii had the lowest seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in July, at 2.1%. At 3.9% Oregon set a new series low since tracking began in 1976. At 6.9% Alaska had the highest jobless rate, not counting Puerto Rico’s 9.1%. In total, 15 states had unemployment rates lower than the U.S. figure of 3.9 percent, 10 states plus the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico had higher rates, and 25 states had [Read more…] about Unemployment Rates by State July 2018

June Employment Up AND Unemployment UP

July 7, 2018 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly employment survey results for the month of June on Friday July 6^th .

According to the BLS, the current “Seasonally Adjusted” Unemployment Rate for June (released July 6^th) is 4.0% up from 3.8% in May and 3.9% in April. It was 4.1% where it was stuck from October 2017 through March 2018. Prior to October it was bouncing around between 4.3% and 4.4% since April 2017, after declining from 4.8% in January 2017.

Typically Unemployment levels are worse in June and July, so even though 213,000 more people are employed, unemployment levels still went up. (Probably because students are swelling the labor force for the summer). Last year (2017) Unadjusted Unemployment jumped from 4.1% in May to 4.5% in June while Employment went from 146.937 million to 147.578 million. So even though more people are working more people are also looking for a job. This has driven the Labor Force Participation Rate at 63.4% to levels not seen in several years. NOTE: On 8/3/2018 with the release of the new July numbers the BLS adjusted the June LFPR down to 62.9%.

Key June Employment and Unemployment Numbers

Adjusted U-3 Unemployment- 4.0% Up from 3.8% in May, 3.9% in April but still Below the 4.1% October – March.
Unadjusted U-3 Unemployment- 4.2% up from 3.6% in May, 3.7% in April and 4.1% in March.
Unadjusted U-6 Unemployment- 8.1% up from 7.3% in May, 7.4% in April and from 8.1% in March and 8.6% in February.
Employment 149.980 million up from 149.334 million in May, 148.372 million in April and 147.384 million in March.
Gallup has discontinued publishing U-6 & U-3 numbers.

See Current Unemployment Chart for more info.

Employment by Sector

The employment “bubble chart” gives us a good representation of how each sector of the economy is doing (employment wise). As we can see from the chart below [Read more…] about June Employment Up AND Unemployment UP

Was the Bureau of Labor Statistics Website Really Hacked?

July 6, 2018 by Tim McMahon

This morning when I went to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) website I received a disturbing message. It said I needed to be careful because my “Connection was not Private”.

“Attackers might be trying to steal my information from data.BLS.gov.”

Well, that doesn’t sound good. So since that was inside my Chrome browser I figured I should try a different browser to see if it was my problem.

So I tried Firefox and got this:

OK so maybe it’s not hackers just somebody screwed up at the BLS.

Actually, I could get to the home page https://www.bls.gov/ .

I just couldn’t get to any data pages like these:

http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU04000000

http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CEU0000000001

With a bit more digging around (clicking the “advanced” link) I found that [Read more…] about Was the Bureau of Labor Statistics Website Really Hacked?