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Tim McMahon, Editor of UnemploymentData.com

My grandfather lived through the Hyperinflation in Weimar, Germany--to say he was an original “gold bug” would be an understatement. I began reading his “hard money” newsletters at the age of 16 and the dividends from gold stocks helped put me through college. I began publishing the Financial Trend Forecaster paper newsletter in 1995 upon the death of James Moore editor of Your Window into the Future and the creator of the Moore Inflation Predictor©. FTF specializes in trends in the stock market, gold, inflation and bonds. In January of 2003, I began publishing InflationData.com to specialize in all forms of information about the nature of Inflation. In 2009, we added Elliott Wave University to help teach you the principles of Elliott Wave analysis. In January 2013, we began publishing OptioMoney. Connect with Tim on Google+.

Are You Eligible for Social Security Disability Benefits?

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If you are unable to work due to a disability, you may be eligible for Social Security Disability (SSD) Benefits. Like all government programs, there are very specific requirements you have to meet in order to be eligible for benefits. Plus, the application process for these benefits may be a bit daunting, but finding out if you qualify is worth the effort.

Eligibility for SSD Benefits

You must meet two basic criteria to be eligible for Social Security Disability benefits:

  • You must have a medical condition that meets the criteria of disability as defined by the Social Security Administration (SSA).
  • Your situation should have precluded you from working for about a year or be anticipated to bar you from working for over one year.

The medical condition must prevent you from engaging in “substantial gainful activity.” Work that pays over $1,070 monthly (or $1,800 if you are blind) is considered this. The SSA’s website has a list of disabling conditions, which includes:

  • Cancer
  • Muscular dystrophy
  • Amputation
  • Multiple sclerosis
  • Cerebral palsy
  • Arthritis, etc.

Depending on your age, you must also have worked and paid Social Security taxes for a certain number of years. For example, a 31-year-old must have worked for the previous ten years. People who become disabled before age 22 have a different work requirement; generally, they or a parent should have worked for a sufficient period to be eligible for benefits. [Read more…] about Are You Eligible for Social Security Disability Benefits?

Unemployment Rates by State October 2022

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On Friday, November 18th, 2022, The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its breakdown of the unemployment rates for each individual state for October.

In the chart below, the lightest colors represent the states with the lowest unemployment rates.

Unemployment by State Oct 2022Looking at the above map, we can see that generally, the lowest unemployment states run diagonally across the country, starting in Florida and ending in Montana and Idaho. Conversely, the states with the highest unemployment are located in the North East, the South West, and West Coast.  Of course, minor exceptions exist, but generally, it holds.

October 2022 Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate by State Table (Alphabetical)

State October 2022(P) Rate
Alabama 2.7
Alaska 4.5
Arizona 3.9
Arkansas 3.6
California 4.0
Colorado 3.6
Connecticut 4.3
Delaware 4.3
District of Columbia 4.8
Florida 2.7
Georgia 2.9
Hawaii 3.4
Idaho 2.9
Illinois 4.6
Indiana 3.0
Iowa 2.9
Kansas 2.8
Kentucky 3.9
Louisiana 3.3
Maine 3.6
Maryland 4.5
Massachusetts 3.5
Michigan 4.2
Minnesota 2.1
Mississippi 3.8
Missouri 2.6
Montana 3.0
Nebraska 2.4
Nevada 4.6
New Hampshire 2.4
New Jersey 3.5
New Mexico 4.3
New York 4.4
North Carolina 3.8
North Dakota 2.3
Ohio 4.2
Oklahoma 3.4
Oregon 4.1
Pennsylvania 4.0
Rhode Island 3.4
South Carolina 3.3
South Dakota 2.4
Tennessee 3.5
Texas 4.0
Utah 2.1
Vermont 2.3
Virginia 2.7
Washington 3.8
West Virginia 4.0
Wisconsin 3.3
Wyoming 3.5

States with the Highest Unemployment Rates

The record for the highest unemployment goes as usual to the State that is not really a “state”, i.e., D.C. at 4.8%. Puerto Rico is usually ranked among those with the worst unemployment but avoided that “honor” this month by not having its data available. Slightly better than D.C. is Nevada and Illinois at 4.6%, followed by Maryland, and Alaska at 4.5%.

[Read more…] about Unemployment Rates by State October 2022

October 2022 BLS Employment Report

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Adj U3 Icon 3-7 up

Employment Up – Unemployment Also Up?

  • Unadjusted Employment rose from 153.197 million to 154.369
  • Labor Force Participation is Down from 62.3% to 62.2%
  • Adjusted U-3 was Up from 3.5% to 3.7%
  • Unadjusted U-3 was Up from 3.3% to 3.4%
  • Unadjusted U-6 was Down from 6.4% to 6.3%

 

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for October on November 4th.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 261,000 in October, and the unemployment rate rose to 3.7 percent. Notable job gains occurred in health care, professional and technical services, and manufacturing. Monthly job growth has averaged 407,000 thus
far in 2022, compared with 562,000 per month in 2021.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs” from the “Household Survey” rather than looking at the results reported by actual companies in the BLS “Establishment Survey”.

Looking at the Establishment Survey report, we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 153.073 million for September, which they adjusted up to 153.197 million. So, 124,000 additional jobs appeared for September.

October gained an additional 1,272,000 jobs bringing the total up to 154.369 million.

Initially, the market shot up under the news but as the day progressed the market lost most of its gains. 

See November FED Announcement Rocks Stock Market for more market info.

ADP® National Employment Report

According to ADP In collaboration with Stanford Digital Economy Lab

Private employers added 239,000 jobs in October

  • Employers created 239,000 jobs in October, up from a revised 192,000 in September as restaurants, retailers and the travel sector ramped up hiring in advance of the year-end holidays.

ADP 11-2022

 

ADP also lists increases by “firm size”.

At some point, it may look like small-size firms (i.e. 1-19 employees) are increasing, while everything else is decreasing, but that could simply be the result of people starting companies because they can’t find any other jobs (although this isn’t currently the case). Last month, there were increases across the board. This month’s results were mixed.

 

Unemployment

Looking at the chart for unemployment, we see that despite the increase in the number of people employed unemployment still ticked upward slightly.

Seasonally Adj U-3 Unemployment Rate 11-22

Employment –Establishment Survey

Looking at the chart for employment, we see that current employment (154.369 million) is now above the 2019 peak (153.095 million) although the civilian population is 5 million higher now.

Current Employment 11-4-22

 

See Current Employment for more info.

[Read more…] about October 2022 BLS Employment Report

Love to Drive? These 6 Jobs Are For You

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Love to DriveIf you enjoy driving and are looking for ways to earn some extra money or are interested in a career change, there are a number of unique jobs you could pursue. Here are 6 jobs that you’ll excel at if you love to drive. Most of these jobs require a special license to carry passengers or drive large vehicles.

Taxi Drivers

Taxi and Uber or Lyft drivers will typically make more in big cities, but you can even make some extra cash in smaller towns. These jobs are perfect for those who enjoy socializing since you’ll frequently meet new passengers. While the base pay for these positions may not be very high, you can make a decent amount of extra cash in tips. You’ll have to prepare yourself for some odd working hours, though, since your services will be needed most on weekends, evenings, and during large events. [Read more…] about Love to Drive? These 6 Jobs Are For You

September Unemployment Falls… Dragging Market Down

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Current Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment

Employment Up – Unemployment Down

  • Unadjusted Employment rose from 152.642 million to 153.073
  • Labor Force Participation is Down from 62.4% to 62.3%
  • Adjusted U-3 was Down from 3.7% to 3.5%
  • Unadjusted U-3 was Down from 3.8% to 3.3%
  • Unadjusted U-6 was Down from 7.0% to 6.4%

 

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for September on October 7th.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 263,000 in September, and the unemployment rate edged down to 3.5 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality and in health care.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs” from the “Household Survey” rather than looking at the results reported by actual companies in the BLS “Establishment Survey”.

Looking at the Establishment Survey report, we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 152.572 million for August, which they adjusted up to 152.642 million. So, 70,000 additional jobs appeared for August.

September gained an additional 431,000 jobs bringing the total up to 153.073 million.

Normally this would be good news, but perversely the market was hoping for a bad report which would indicate that the FED could cut back on its tightening.
A good September 2022 Unemployment report means inflation is not yet under control, so the FED will continue aggressively tightening.

According to Bloomberg:
“The US labor market stayed strong in September as the unemployment rate unexpectedly returned to an historic low, leaving the inflation-phobic Federal Reserve on course to deliver yet another aggressive interest-rate hike.”

In response, the NYSE lost just over 2% of its value on Friday after the release of the report.

However, just 4 days earlier, on Monday, the BLS had released its “Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey” for August, which in the minds of schizophrenic market analysts, appeared to indicate that the Labor market might possibly be softening just a little, and the market used that as an excuse to rally. So the NYSE opened the week at 13,472… rallied to 14,340… then fell back to 13,798 for the week.  (Actually, a 2.4% net gain for the week).

NOTE: The reason we look at the NYSE rather than the more commonly quoted DOW is breadth. The NYSE covers the vast majority of U.S. stocks rather than just a few major ones covered by the DOW.

ADP® National Employment Report

According to ADP In collaboration with Stanford Digital Economy Lab

  • Businesses created 208,000 jobs in September, up from a revised 185,000 in August, as schools reopened and pandemic concerns receded. But while job growth is stable, it remains below the recent three-month average.

In other words, jobs are still growing but not as fast as they have been. Despite this slowing of job growth and the FED tightening, ADP’s Chief Economist Nela Richardson believes jobs will continue to grow.

ADP September

ADP also lists increases by “firm size”.

At some point, it may look like small-size firms (i.e. 1-19 employees) are increasing, while everything else is decreasing, but that could simply be the result of people starting companies because they can’t find any other jobs (although this isn’t currently the case). Currently, there are increases across the board.

ADP Change by Firm Size 10-22

Establishment Survey Employment

Looking at the chart for employment, we see that current employment (153.073 million) is just a hair under the 2019 peak (153.095 million) although the civilian population is almost 5 million higher now. So despite all the talk of the strong employment situation, there is a slight disconnect.

Current Employment

See Current Employment for more info.

[Read more…] about September Unemployment Falls… Dragging Market Down

Injured on the Job? 3 Things to Immediately Do

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Injuries on the job are common, but a severe injury may affect your ability to work for that day, for a week, or even for several years. In this case, you may be entitled to damages from medical bills and lost wages. It’s important to know what to do after sustaining a work injury – otherwise, you may not receive the benefits you deserve. Following the proper procedures will protect your rights as an employee, including your right to worker’s compensation. Here are three important things to do immediately after a workplace accident.

1) Report Your Job-Related Injury in a Timely Manner

If an accident happens at work, it’s best to report it to your employer immediately, if possible. Establishing the timeline early makes it easier to track your condition in case it worsens, allowing insurance companies to trace the injury back to the workplace accident. Many states also have a deadline for reporting your injury. A report to your employer will likely be required for you to receive worker’s compensation. Therefore, it’s in your best interest to make this your first step.

2) Get a Medical Evaluation

After getting injured on the job and reporting your injury to your employer, [Read more…] about Injured on the Job? 3 Things to Immediately Do

5 Signs It’s Time to Make a Career Change

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People change their careers all the time. In fact, the United States Department of Labor reports that adults will have an average of twelve jobs under their belt by the time they reach their fifties. While their reasons for changing careers can vary depending on personal circumstances, the tell-tale signs of an impending career change are pretty much universal.

1) You Feel Undervalued

Being able to build your skills and advance in your profession is an important facet of your career. If you’re performing the same task every day without an outlet for expressing your strengths, you are working at a job, not a career. Feeling uninspired, apathetic, or generally unmotivated from a job that doesn’t challenge you is a sign that you have mentally checked out, which means it’s time for a change.

2) Your Salary Isn’t Enough

Work is called “work” for a reason, but there will be a tipping point where the paycheck doesn’t make up for an unfulfilling job. If money is the only thing keeping you at your mentally draining day job, it may be another sign that you’re ready for bigger and better things. [Read more…] about 5 Signs It’s Time to Make a Career Change

Building Confidence to Help You Reenter the World

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Whether you’ve been out of the job force because of school, family obligations, or COVID, returning to the work world can be intimidating. So, developing the self-confidence that is essential for a good job interview, and climbing the corporate ladder is a skill you need to master. Thankfully, there are easy ways to build confidence so you’re ready to reenter “the real world” and achieve your goals.

Improve Your Work-Life Balance

It can be challenging to balance work with your personal life, but it’s essential to your mental and physical health. Finding the right balance can be especially hard when work is stressful. Try to find ways to reduce stress throughout the workday, such as taking a short walk during your lunch break or regular five-minute breathers. Using your vacation days and working remotely on occasion can also help provide a healthy work-life balance. Remember to establish boundaries you’re comfortable with.

Start a Realistic Fitness Routine

Not everyone has the time to spend an hour at the gym each day, but that doesn’t mean you can’t begin a fitness routine. Mayo Clinic notes that it’s recommended that adults get at least 30 minutes of moderate physical activity each day. With a bit of creativity, you’ll find meeting this goal a breeze.

For example, you might park 5–10 minutes away from your office and walk the rest of the way each day. You can take the stairs instead of an elevator at work or when out shopping. Even parking further away on visits to the grocery store can add up. Parents could play active games with their children, like sports, tag, or hide-and-seek.

Investing in a cheap set of free weights can allow you to squeeze in 10 minutes of strength training each day, which is realistic for most people. You might invest in an exercise bike or treadmill, which can help you get in a few minutes of moderate exercise every day.

If you plan to purchase exercise equipment, it helps to read unbiased reviews of the various products available. There are numerous types of exercise equipment on the market, and quality may vary widely between manufacturers. Be sure to check what reviews have to say before spending your hard-earned money.

Eating Healthier

The CDC points out that eating healthier isn’t just about losing weight, although it can help. Eating right also means protecting yourself against illness by boosting your immune system and generally feeling better. If you are feeling generally unwell or lack energy, that can lead to depression and consequently a lack of self-confidence, so maintaining your health can actually help you feel more confident.

One simple way to eat better is to pack lunches for work instead of eating out. You can organize your lunches for the week on Sunday evening if your weekday schedule is too busy. As an added benefit, packing lunches can also save you money.
[Read more…] about Building Confidence to Help You Reenter the World

August: Employment and Labor Force Participation Up

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The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for August on September 2nd.

 

Adj U3 Icon 3-7 up

 

  • Unadjusted Employment rose from 152.263 million to 152.572
  • Labor Force Participation Up from 62.1% to 62.4%
  • Adjusted U-3 was Up from 3.5% to 3.7%
  • Unadjusted U-3 was Unchanged at 3.8%
  • Unadjusted U-6 was Down from 7.2% to 7.0%

 

Looking Back:

In June, we reported a few Early Indicators of a brewing recession.

  • Labor Force Participation Down from 62.3% to 62.2%
  • Upturn in Uneducated Unemployment
  • Rising Unemployment among the newly unemployed
  • Average Weekly Hours among manufacturing workers falling

Since then, the BLS has changed the employment numbers for June from an initial 152.692 million for June. They adjusted down to 152.634 million in July and then down to 152.607 in August. So, a total of 85,000 jobs disappeared for June.

July’s Indicators

Originally they reported employment of  152.249 million jobs for July. They have adjusted that to 152.263 million , which is an increase of 14,000 jobs. For August, they are currently reporting 152.572 million,  an increase of 323,000 based on their original estimates or an increase of 309,000 based on their updated numbers.

But… August employment is still below June’s employment no matter which number for June they use.

On the Bright Side

Labor Force Participation is Up to 62.4% where it peaked in March.

Labor Force Participation Rate

In the News:

Trying to put a good spin on rising unemployment US. News says:

Lower US Job Gain in August Could Aid Fed’s Inflation Fight

The NY Times is beating the same drum:

Job Market Cooled but Was Still Strong in August

The monthly employment report suggested that the Federal Reserve might be able to tame inflation without causing a recession.

CNN follows along:

Yes, the unemployment rate rose. Here’s why that’s good news

CNBC focuses on race instead:
While all demographic groups saw the unemployment rate tick up slightly, it rose at a sharper pace for both Hispanic and Black workers to 4.5% and 6.4%, respectively.

ADP National Employment Report

In addition to the BLS, we can look at the Jobs Report generated by private companies like ADP Research Institute. According to their numbers, August employment was up 132,000 not the 300,000+ that the BLS reports.

  • Private employers created 132,000 jobs in August, a step down from the month before, when the economy created nearly 270,000 jobs. Payroll growth also slowed in July when compared to June of this year.

About the ADP Report:

The ADP National Employment Report is an independent estimate of the change in U.S. private sector employment and pay derived from actual, anonymous payroll data of client companies served by ADP, a leading provider of human capital management solutions. The report is produced by ADP Research Institute in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab. The ADP National Employment Report is broadly distributed to the public each month, free of charge, as part of the company’s commitment to offering deeper insights of the U.S. labor market and providing businesses and governments with a source of credible and valuable information.

Current Employment

Current Employment Chart

 

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 315,000 in August, and the unemployment rate rose to 3.7 percent. Notable job gains occurred in professional and business services, health care, and retail trade. Total nonfarm employment increased by 5.8 million over the year, as the labor market continued to recover from the job losses of the pandemic-induced recession. This growth brings total nonfarm employment 240,000 above its February 2020 level before the onset of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs” from the “Household Survey” rather than looking at the results reported by actual companies in the BLS “Establishment Survey”.

Employment is approaching the 2019 peak, although the population is now several million higher.

Historical Employment with Recessions

Historical Employment Chart

[Read more…] about August: Employment and Labor Force Participation Up

July 2022 Jobs Report- Not as Rosy as They’d Have You Believe

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Typically July Jobs Reports aren’t that great anyway so “Seasonal Adjustments” correct for that but let’s dig a bit deeper today.

Current Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment

 

  • Adjusted U-3 was Down from 3.6% in June to 3.5% in July.
  • Unadjusted U-3 was Unchanged at 3.8% for June and July after being 3.4% in May.
  • Unadjusted U-6 went from 6.7% in May to 7.0% in June to 7.2% in July.
  • Unadjusted Employment FELL from 152.634 million to 152.249 million.
  • Average Weekly Wages Still Rising 

Looking Back:

Last month (for June) we reported the following “Early Indicators of a possible recession”

  • Labor Force Participation Down from 62.3% to 62.2%
  • Upturn in Uneducated Unemployment
  • Rising Unemployment among the newly unemployed
  • Average Weekly Hours among manufacturing workers falling

July’s Indicators

According to CNBC:

“Hiring in July was far better than expected, defying multiple other signs that the economic recovery is losing steam, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday.”

One of those “other signs” is the two consecutive quarters of falling GDP. This is definitely a sign of a slowing economy, but we have typically followed the National Bureau of Economic Research, i.e. NBER’s guidance of when a recession starts. Because that includes a variety of other factors (including unemployment) giving a fuller picture of the total economy, not just GDP. But NBER typically takes a while before they declare that a recession began months ago.

But… one reason the Employment situation is as good as it is, is because of the massive injection of FED funny money over the last two years which artificially boosted the economy.

According to CNN:

“The US economy has now regained all jobs lost during the pandemic, after a blowout July jobs report that showed a gain of 528,000 jobs, according to data released Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The massive monthly gain was more than double the 250,000 that economists were expecting, according to Refinitiv.”

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 528,000 in July, and the unemployment rate edged down to 3.5 percent. Job growth was widespread, led by gains in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, and health care. In July, both total nonfarm employment and the unemployment rate returned to their February 2020 pre-pandemic levels. Private-sector employment is 629,000 higher than in February 2020, although several sectors have yet to recover. Government employment is 597,000 lower than its pre-pandemic level.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs” from the “Household Survey” rather than looking at the results reported by actual companies in the BLS “Establishment Survey”.

But looking at the Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 152.692 million for June which they adjusted this month down to 152.634 million. So, 58,000 jobs disappeared for June. So even if they just reported the same number as they originally did in June we would have a 58,000 job increase!

Now they are reporting 152.249 million jobs for July which is actually a decrease of 443,000 jobs based on their original estimates or a decrease of 385,000 based on their updated numbers. So employment is actually down, unadjusted U6 is UP, Unadjusted U3 is UP, and LFPR is Down, but somehow this is presented as a rosy report. 

The other factor in their rosy outlook is that employment is now back to pre-covid levels. But when we look at the Establishment Survey numbers we see that February 2020 (pre-covid) at 150.968 million is actually below the November 2019 peak of 153.095 million. So the current 152.249 million is still below the 2019 peak, and that doesn’t even count the roughly 4 million increase in documented population plus the untold millions of new “undocumented” residents.

Current Employment Chart

Historical Employment with Recessions

Historical Employment

 

[Read more…] about July 2022 Jobs Report- Not as Rosy as They’d Have You Believe