Tim McMahon, Editor of UnemploymentData.com

My grandfather lived through the Hyperinflation in Weimar, Germany--to say he was an original “gold bug” would be an understatement. I began reading his “hard money” newsletters at the age of 16 and the dividends from gold stocks helped put me through college. I began publishing the Financial Trend Forecaster paper newsletter in 1995 upon the death of James Moore editor of Your Window into the Future and the creator of the Moore Inflation Predictor©. FTF specializes in trends in the stock market, gold, inflation and bonds. In January of 2003, I began publishing InflationData.com to specialize in all forms of information about the nature of Inflation. In 2009, we added Elliott Wave University to help teach you the principles of Elliott Wave analysis. In January 2013, we began publishing OptioMoney. Connect with Tim on Google+.

Love to Drive? These 6 Jobs Are For You

October 19, 2022 by Tim McMahon

If you enjoy driving and are looking for ways to earn some extra money or are interested in a career change, there are a number of unique jobs you could pursue. Here are 6 jobs that you’ll excel at if you love to drive. Most of these jobs require a special license to carry passengers or drive large vehicles.

Taxi Drivers

Taxi and Uber or Lyft drivers will typically make more in big cities, but you can even make some extra cash in smaller towns. These jobs are perfect for those who enjoy socializing since you’ll frequently meet new passengers. While the base pay for these positions may not be very high, you can make a decent amount of extra cash in tips. You’ll have to prepare yourself for some odd working hours, though, since your services will be needed most on weekends, evenings, and during large events. [Read more…] about Love to Drive? These 6 Jobs Are For You

September Unemployment Falls… Dragging Market Down

October 8, 2022 by Tim McMahon

Employment Up – Unemployment Down

Unadjusted Employment rose from 152.642 million to 153.073
Labor Force Participation is Down from 62.4% to 62.3%
Adjusted U-3 was Down from 3.7% to 3.5%
Unadjusted U-3 was Down from 3.8% to 3.3%
Unadjusted U-6 was Down from 7.0% to 6.4%

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for September on October 7^th.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 263,000 in September, and the unemployment rate edged down to 3.5 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality and in health care.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs” from the “Household Survey” rather than looking at the results reported by actual companies in the BLS “Establishment Survey”.

Looking at the Establishment Survey report, we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 152.572 million for August, which they adjusted up to 152.642 million. So, 70,000 additional jobs appeared for August.

September gained an additional 431,000 jobs bringing the total up to 153.073 million.

Normally this would be good news, but perversely the market was hoping for a bad report which would indicate that the FED could cut back on its tightening.
A good September 2022 Unemployment report means inflation is not yet under control, so the FED will continue aggressively tightening.

According to Bloomberg:
“The US labor market stayed strong in September as the unemployment rate unexpectedly returned to an historic low, leaving the inflation-phobic Federal Reserve on course to deliver yet another aggressive interest-rate hike.”

In response, the NYSE lost just over 2% of its value on Friday after the release of the report.

However, just 4 days earlier, on Monday, the BLS had released its “Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey” for August, which in the minds of schizophrenic market analysts, appeared to indicate that the Labor market might possibly be softening just a little, and the market used that as an excuse to rally. So the NYSE opened the week at 13,472… rallied to 14,340… then fell back to 13,798 for the week. (Actually, a 2.4% net gain for the week).

NOTE: The reason we look at the NYSE rather than the more commonly quoted DOW is breadth. The NYSE covers the vast majority of U.S. stocks rather than just a few major ones covered by the DOW.

ADP^® National Employment Report

According to ADP In collaboration with Stanford Digital Economy Lab

Businesses created 208,000 jobs in September, up from a revised 185,000 in August, as schools reopened and pandemic concerns receded. But while job growth is stable, it remains below the recent three-month average.

In other words, jobs are still growing but not as fast as they have been. Despite this slowing of job growth and the FED tightening, ADP’s Chief Economist Nela Richardson believes jobs will continue to grow.

ADP also lists increases by “firm size”.

At some point, it may look like small-size firms (i.e. 1-19 employees) are increasing, while everything else is decreasing, but that could simply be the result of people starting companies because they can’t find any other jobs (although this isn’t currently the case). Currently, there are increases across the board.

Establishment Survey Employment

Looking at the chart for employment, we see that current employment (153.073 million) is just a hair under the 2019 peak (153.095 million) although the civilian population is almost 5 million higher now. So despite all the talk of the strong employment situation, there is a slight disconnect.

See Current Employment for more info.

Injured on the Job? 3 Things to Immediately Do

October 4, 2022 by Tim McMahon

Injuries on the job are common, but a severe injury may affect your ability to work for that day, for a week, or even for several years. In this case, you may be entitled to damages from medical bills and lost wages. It’s important to know what to do after sustaining a work injury – otherwise, you may not receive the benefits you deserve. Following the proper procedures will protect your rights as an employee, including your right to worker’s compensation. Here are three important things to do immediately after a workplace accident.

1) Report Your Job-Related Injury in a Timely Manner

If an accident happens at work, it’s best to report it to your employer immediately, if possible. Establishing the timeline early makes it easier to track your condition in case it worsens, allowing insurance companies to trace the injury back to the workplace accident. Many states also have a deadline for reporting your injury. A report to your employer will likely be required for you to receive worker’s compensation. Therefore, it’s in your best interest to make this your first step.

2) Get a Medical Evaluation

After getting injured on the job and reporting your injury to your employer, [Read more…] about Injured on the Job? 3 Things to Immediately Do

5 Signs It’s Time to Make a Career Change

September 24, 2022 by Tim McMahon

People change their careers all the time. In fact, the United States Department of Labor reports that adults will have an average of twelve jobs under their belt by the time they reach their fifties. While their reasons for changing careers can vary depending on personal circumstances, the tell-tale signs of an impending career change are pretty much universal.

1) You Feel Undervalued

Being able to build your skills and advance in your profession is an important facet of your career. If you’re performing the same task every day without an outlet for expressing your strengths, you are working at a job, not a career. Feeling uninspired, apathetic, or generally unmotivated from a job that doesn’t challenge you is a sign that you have mentally checked out, which means it’s time for a change.

2) Your Salary Isn’t Enough

Work is called “work” for a reason, but there will be a tipping point where the paycheck doesn’t make up for an unfulfilling job. If money is the only thing keeping you at your mentally draining day job, it may be another sign that you’re ready for bigger and better things. [Read more…] about 5 Signs It’s Time to Make a Career Change

Building Confidence to Help You Reenter the World

September 17, 2022 by Tim McMahon

Whether you’ve been out of the job force because of school, family obligations, or COVID, returning to the work world can be intimidating. So, developing the self-confidence that is essential for a good job interview, and climbing the corporate ladder is a skill you need to master. Thankfully, there are easy ways to build confidence so you’re ready to reenter “the real world” and achieve your goals.

Improve Your Work-Life Balance

It can be challenging to balance work with your personal life, but it’s essential to your mental and physical health. Finding the right balance can be especially hard when work is stressful. Try to find ways to reduce stress throughout the workday, such as taking a short walk during your lunch break or regular five-minute breathers. Using your vacation days and working remotely on occasion can also help provide a healthy work-life balance. Remember to establish boundaries you’re comfortable with.

Start a Realistic Fitness Routine

Not everyone has the time to spend an hour at the gym each day, but that doesn’t mean you can’t begin a fitness routine. Mayo Clinic notes that it’s recommended that adults get at least 30 minutes of moderate physical activity each day. With a bit of creativity, you’ll find meeting this goal a breeze.

For example, you might park 5–10 minutes away from your office and walk the rest of the way each day. You can take the stairs instead of an elevator at work or when out shopping. Even parking further away on visits to the grocery store can add up. Parents could play active games with their children, like sports, tag, or hide-and-seek.

Investing in a cheap set of free weights can allow you to squeeze in 10 minutes of strength training each day, which is realistic for most people. You might invest in an exercise bike or treadmill, which can help you get in a few minutes of moderate exercise every day.

If you plan to purchase exercise equipment, it helps to read unbiased reviews of the various products available. There are numerous types of exercise equipment on the market, and quality may vary widely between manufacturers. Be sure to check what reviews have to say before spending your hard-earned money.

Eating Healthier

The CDC points out that eating healthier isn’t just about losing weight, although it can help. Eating right also means protecting yourself against illness by boosting your immune system and generally feeling better. If you are feeling generally unwell or lack energy, that can lead to depression and consequently a lack of self-confidence, so maintaining your health can actually help you feel more confident.

One simple way to eat better is to pack lunches for work instead of eating out. You can organize your lunches for the week on Sunday evening if your weekday schedule is too busy. As an added benefit, packing lunches can also save you money.
[Read more…] about Building Confidence to Help You Reenter the World

August: Employment and Labor Force Participation Up

September 3, 2022 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for August on September 2^nd.

Unadjusted Employment rose from 152.263 million to 152.572
Labor Force Participation Up from 62.1% to 62.4%
Adjusted U-3 was Up from 3.5% to 3.7%
Unadjusted U-3 was Unchanged at 3.8%
Unadjusted U-6 was Down from 7.2% to 7.0%

Looking Back:

In June, we reported a few Early Indicators of a brewing recession.

Labor Force Participation Down from 62.3% to 62.2%
Upturn in Uneducated Unemployment
Rising Unemployment among the newly unemployed
Average Weekly Hours among manufacturing workers falling

Since then, the BLS has changed the employment numbers for June from an initial 152.692 million for June. They adjusted down to 152.634 million in July and then down to 152.607 in August. So, a total of 85,000 jobs disappeared for June.

July’s Indicators

Originally they reported employment of 152.249 million jobs for July. They have adjusted that to 152.263 million , which is an increase of 14,000 jobs. For August, they are currently reporting 152.572 million, an increase of 323,000 based on their original estimates or an increase of 309,000 based on their updated numbers.

But… August employment is still below June’s employment no matter which number for June they use.

On the Bright Side

Labor Force Participation is Up to 62.4% where it peaked in March.

In the News:

Trying to put a good spin on rising unemployment US. News says:

Lower US Job Gain in August Could Aid Fed’s Inflation Fight

The NY Times is beating the same drum:

Job Market Cooled but Was Still Strong in August

The monthly employment report suggested that the Federal Reserve might be able to tame inflation without causing a recession.

CNN follows along:

Yes, the unemployment rate rose. Here’s why that’s good news

CNBC focuses on race instead:

While all demographic groups saw the unemployment rate tick up slightly, it rose at a sharper pace for both Hispanic and Black workers to 4.5% and 6.4%, respectively.

ADP National Employment Report

In addition to the BLS, we can look at the Jobs Report generated by private companies like ADP Research Institute. According to their numbers, August employment was up 132,000 not the 300,000+ that the BLS reports.

Private employers created 132,000 jobs in August, a step down from the month before, when the economy created nearly 270,000 jobs. Payroll growth also slowed in July when compared to June of this year.

About the ADP Report:

The ADP National Employment Report is an independent estimate of the change in U.S. private sector employment and pay derived from actual, anonymous payroll data of client companies served by ADP, a leading provider of human capital management solutions. The report is produced by ADP Research Institute in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab. The ADP National Employment Report is broadly distributed to the public each month, free of charge, as part of the company’s commitment to offering deeper insights of the U.S. labor market and providing businesses and governments with a source of credible and valuable information.

Current Employment

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 315,000 in August, and the unemployment rate rose to 3.7 percent. Notable job gains occurred in professional and business services, health care, and retail trade. Total nonfarm employment increased by 5.8 million over the year, as the labor market continued to recover from the job losses of the pandemic-induced recession. This growth brings total nonfarm employment 240,000 above its February 2020 level before the onset of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs” from the “Household Survey” rather than looking at the results reported by actual companies in the BLS “Establishment Survey”.

Employment is approaching the 2019 peak, although the population is now several million higher.

Historical Employment with Recessions