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Tim McMahon, Editor of UnemploymentData.com

My grandfather lived through the Hyperinflation in Weimar, Germany--to say he was an original “gold bug” would be an understatement. I began reading his “hard money” newsletters at the age of 16 and the dividends from gold stocks helped put me through college. I began publishing the Financial Trend Forecaster paper newsletter in 1995 upon the death of James Moore editor of Your Window into the Future and the creator of the Moore Inflation Predictor©. FTF specializes in trends in the stock market, gold, inflation and bonds. In January of 2003, I began publishing InflationData.com to specialize in all forms of information about the nature of Inflation. In 2009, we added Elliott Wave University to help teach you the principles of Elliott Wave analysis. In January 2013, we began publishing OptioMoney. Connect with Tim on Google+.

Key July Employment and Unemployment Numbers

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U-3 Unemployment 3.9%The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly employment survey results for the month of July on Friday August 3rd .

The current “Seasonally Adjusted” Unemployment Rate for July (released August 3rd) is 3.9% down from 4.0% last month. It was 3.8% in May and 3.9% in April. Unemployment was  4.1% from October 2017 through March 2018. Seasonally adjusted unemployment bounced around between 4.3% and 4.4% from April through October 2017, after declining from 4.8% in January 2017.

Typically Unemployment levels are worse in June and July so seasonally adjusting takes that into consideration. If we look at Unadjusted Unemployment we see that in 2017 it jumped from 4.1% in May to 4.5% in June at the same time the Seasonally Adjusted numbers simply went from 4.3% to 4.4%.

Key July Employment and Unemployment Numbers

  • Adjusted U-3 Unemployment-   3.9% down from 4.0% in June but up from the 3.8% in May, 3.9% in April but still Below the 4.1% October – March.
  • Unadjusted U-3 Unemployment-  4.1% down from 4.2% in June up from 3.6% in May, 3.7% in April and  4.1% in March.
  • Unadjusted U-6 Unemployment-   7.9% down from 8.1% in June, up from 7.3% in May, 7.4% in April and from 8.1% in March and 8.6% in February.
  • Employment 148.901 million. BLS adjusted June employment up from 148.912 million as released to 150.057 million.
  • NOTE: On 8/3/2018 with the release of the new July numbers the BLS adjusted the June LFPR down to 62.9% from a recent high of 63.4%

See Current Unemployment Chart for more info.

Employment by Sector

The employment “bubble chart” gives us a good representation of how each sector of the economy is doing (employment wise). As we can see from the chart below [Read more…] about Key July Employment and Unemployment Numbers

EU Unemployment Nearing Pre-Recession Levels

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Way back in the first quarter of 2008 European Union (E.U.) unemployment bottomed at 6.8%. Then as the world slid into recession unemployment began climbing, ultimately peaking at 11.0% in the first half of 2013. From there it has gradually declined to 7.1% as we can see in this chart created by Statista.

EU Unemployment 2005-2018

During the same period U.S. unemployment levels were considerably lower with a bottom of 4.4% (roughly 2/3rds the EU level) in October & December 2006 and again in March and May of 2007. And then we see that U.S. unemployment peaked earlier i.e. in October 2009 (compared to 2012-13 for the EU) and at a lower level 10.1% for the U.S. compared to 11.0% for the E.U. Interestingly the U.S. unemployment rate actually shot up faster in that it reached 10.1% in 2009 while the E.U. was still around 9% at that time. But then the U.S. rate turned down while the E.U. unemployment rate continued upward for another 3 years!

Currently the U.S. rate isbelow 2006-07 levels while the E.U. rate has not yet reached 2007 levels. And current U.S. levels are roughly 56% of E.U. levels.

US Unemployment 2005-2018

Why are E.U Unemployment Levels So Much Higher?

This makes us ask a few questions:

4 Tips to Making Your Desk Job More Enjoyable

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For the past few decades, more and more jobs have been created that require people to spend their whole days inside while sitting at a computer. While these jobs can come with bigger paychecks and lower risks, they also are sedentary and can be stressful. While there are disadvantages that come with working at a desk job all day, there are things that you can do to make it more enjoyable.

Get Outside When You Can

Many people try to bring their own lunch to work in an effort to save money and time. While there are benefits that come with eating lunch at your desk, you should still look for ways to get outside as much as possible. Even taking a quick 15-minute walk break outside once or twice per day can help you to get some much-needed exercise and allow you to clear your head. This can also give you something to get excited about during the day.

Be Social

When you are at work, [Read more…] about 4 Tips to Making Your Desk Job More Enjoyable

June Employment Up AND Unemployment UP

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The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly employment survey results for the month of June on Friday July 6th .

According to the BLS, the current “Seasonally Adjusted” Unemployment Rate for June (released July 6th) is 4.0% up from 3.8% in May and 3.9% in April. It was  4.1% where it was stuck from October 2017 through March 2018. Prior to October it was bouncing around between 4.3% and 4.4% since April 2017, after declining from 4.8% in January 2017.

Typically Unemployment levels are worse in June and July, so even though 213,000 more people are employed, unemployment levels still went up. (Probably because students are swelling the labor force for the summer). Last year (2017) Unadjusted Unemployment jumped from 4.1% in May to 4.5% in June while Employment went from 146.937 million to 147.578 million. So even though more people are working more people are also looking for a job. This has driven the Labor Force Participation Rate at 63.4% to levels not seen in several years. NOTE: On 8/3/2018 with the release of the new July numbers the BLS adjusted the June LFPR down to 62.9%.

Key June Employment and Unemployment Numbers

  • Adjusted U-3 Unemployment-   4.0% Up from 3.8% in May, 3.9% in April but still Below the 4.1% October – March.
  • Unadjusted U-3 Unemployment-  4.2% up from 3.6% in May, 3.7% in April and  4.1% in March.
  • Unadjusted U-6 Unemployment-   8.1% up from 7.3% in May, 7.4% in April and from 8.1% in March and 8.6% in February.
  • Employment 149.980 million up from 149.334 million in May, 148.372 million in April and 147.384 million in March.
  • Gallup has discontinued publishing U-6 & U-3 numbers.

See Current Unemployment Chart for more info.

Employment by Sector

The employment “bubble chart” gives us a good representation of how each sector of the economy is doing (employment wise). As we can see from the chart below [Read more…] about June Employment Up AND Unemployment UP

Was the Bureau of Labor Statistics Website Really Hacked?

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This morning when I went to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) website I received a disturbing message. It said I needed to be careful because my “Connection was not Private”.

“Attackers might be trying to steal my information from data.BLS.gov.”

BLS Hacked

Well, that doesn’t sound good. So since that was inside my Chrome browser I figured I should try a different browser to see if it was my problem.

So I tried Firefox and got this:

BLS Firefox Hacked

OK so maybe it’s not hackers just somebody screwed up at the BLS.

Actually, I could get to the home page https://www.bls.gov/ .

 

 

I just couldn’t get to any data pages like these:

http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU04000000

http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CEU0000000001

With a bit more digging around (clicking the “advanced” link) I found that [Read more…] about Was the Bureau of Labor Statistics Website Really Hacked?

Why Business Perception is Important

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In business, reputation can make you or break you. But it isn’t just how you conduct business that matters, setting the correct image is also important. Dirty business premises, untidy offices and/or reception room, structural defects and signs of damage can scare off customers. Depending on the type of business, often customers won’t even enter your door if the front isn’t clean and tidy. This is especially true if you are running a food business but pertains to other types of business as well. Recently, even car repair businesses (which generates a lot of dirt and grease) have shown that they can benefit if they are able to maintain a clean neat appearance.

https://youtu.be/8hAp2wepAxQ

Finding New Premises

As a new business owner, your first premises are a big deal. It is ultimately where your business sinks or swims, where you hope that your idea evolves into a success that you can grow year by year. [Read more…] about Why Business Perception is Important

Landing a Good Job Teaching ESL

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You dream of traveling the world teaching English as a Second Language (ESL) and have worked hard to graduate from your chosen ESL program. It is time to start applying for your dream job. The steps for landing an ESL job are similar to the steps for landing any other job. You still need to prepare your resume, apply for the job and ace your interview. Here are some tips for landing a job after graduating from an ESL program.

You Probably Need a Bachelor’s Degree

If you are planning on using your ESL degree to gain entry into a foreign country like Cambodia, Vietnam, Thailand, etc. You will probably need to have a Bachelor’s degree in addition to your ESL degree because most countries want to be sure that you aren’t taking a job from a native before they will offer you residency.

What Kind of Jobs are Available?

Teaching ESL can be done in a variety of different ways and places. You can teach ESL in an English speaking country to immigrants who do not yet know the language. Or you can travel to a foreign country and teach English to natives who want to improve their English. It can be taught in a traditional classroom or in one-on-one tutoring sessions. It can be simply conversational practice for someone who already knows the basics and just needs to improve their pronunciation or it can be teaching using pictures for someone who doesn’t know any English at all. ESL classes can also be online or in person. Classes can be made up of children, Teens, Adults and even strictly Professionals or “Business English”. [Read more…] about Landing a Good Job Teaching ESL

How to Know It’s Time to Start Your Own Business

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The idea of starting your own business can be a daunting one, but for some people, it is the perfect thing to do, especially if the other option seems to be long-term unemployment. It’s far better to try something different and start a business than to wait and see if something will come up in terms of work, assuming you are ready to do so. Here are some of the things to think about when you are wondering whether it’s time to start your own business.

Passion

One of the signs that it’s time to start your own business is that you have the passion for it. It your new venture the only thing you can focus on? Do you find you are daydreaming about it? When you are so passionate about something that it is taking over your life and becomes the only thing you can (and the only thing you want to) think about, then you know that you should start turning those ideas into a business. However, just because you are passionate about something doesn’t mean that you can launch straight into it in business terms; take your time and write a business plan first.

According to QuickBooks:
The seven components you must have in your business plan include:
  • Executive Summary.
  • Business Description.
  • Market Analysis.
  • Organization Management.
  • Sales Strategies.
  • Funding Requirements.
  • Financial Projections.

Decision Making

When you run your own business, you need to [Read more…] about How to Know It’s Time to Start Your Own Business

5 Things You Can Do with a Degree in Special Education

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Special education is one of the most in-demand specialties for teachers today. According to the CDC, about one in every six children has some type of developmental disability. Not all children requiring special education have a cognitive or physical delay or other challenge, as an increasing number of students are considered gifted or talented and need special education to meet their needs.

Earning a degree in special education opens the doors to a range of career opportunities, all of which are growing swiftly. As you think about your career in education, consider some of these paths to helping all students access the education they deserve.

Special Education Teacher

The most obvious path with a special education degree is to become a classroom teacher. Opportunities abound, as there are significant shortages of special education teachers in nearly every state. The expected growth in the field varies according to location and age group, with special education preschool and early childhood educators expected to see the most growth (9 percent) over the next six years. However, even elementary and secondary educators will see demand increase, with the expected growth rate at 6 percent.

Special education teachers may work with a full class of students, with individual students or with small groups. Some specialize in a specific subject area, such as reading, while others are generalists. Regardless, working as a special education teacher requires a higher-than-average degree of flexibility and patience, as well as a willingness to manage the paperwork that comes along with special education and to work as part of a team of parents, counselors, administrators and other teachers.

Special Education Specialist

Some schools or districts hire specialists to work with a specific population of students. For example, you might work with hearing-impaired students as an ASL interpreter or earn an autism certification online to work specifically with students with autism. In fact, autism is on the rise, with the CDC reporting rates of 1 in 68 children, and many of these children are being mainstreamed into traditional classrooms. Often, they need one-on-one assistance, and a special education specialist fills that role. In some cases, the specialist will work with the same student throughout their time in the school, allowing them to build a special bond and relationship with the student and his or her family. Specialists often face many of the same challenges as classroom teachers, though, in terms of needing patience and flexibility and managing the intricacies of special education.

Student Advocate

When a student requires special education services, they generally have an Individual Education Plan, or IEP. IEPs are developed with the input of teachers, counselors, healthcare providers, social workers school administrators and parents. The process isn’t always easy, and many parents find that they aren’t fully prepared to advocate for their child. That’s where a student or family advocate comes in. They serve as an objective third party for the family, putting their knowledge of the ins and outs of special education to work to ensure that the student receives all necessary services and that the IEP is thorough and effective. Most student advocates work on a freelance or contract basis and have at least a few years of experience working in a school or program before they become an advocate.

Early Intervention Specialist

Some children present signs of cognitive or physical delays or disabilities early in life – sometimes as early as infancy. Early intervention specialists work with infants, toddlers and preschoolers to deliver interventions that will have a positive effect on their growth and development. Early intervention specialists often work with social workers and medical providers to provide services in the home, medical setting or a center or classroom. This role also requires a great deal of patience, as well as a thorough understanding of child development and developmental milestones.

Special Education Diagnostician

For many children, [Read more…] about 5 Things You Can Do with a Degree in Special Education

May Unemployment Lowest Since 2000

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Unemployment 3.8%

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly employment survey results for the month of May on Friday June 1st .

According to the BLS the Seasonally Adjusted U-3 Unemployment Rate is at a new low. Unemployment has been falling and has now reached levels not seen since April of 2000. Current levels are even lower than during the boom of 2006. If they drop another 1/10th of a percent we will have to go all the way back to 1969 to find levels that low.

Many Experts consider this to be the new “Full Employment” level i.e. everyone who wants a job has found one however with the Labor Force Participation rate still well below the average that is debatable.  See Is the U.S. Really at “Full Employment”? for more information.

Key May Employment and Unemployment Numbers

  • Adjusted U-3 Unemployment-   May 3.8% Down from 3.9% in April and 4.1% October – March.
  • Unadjusted U-3 Unemployment-  May 3.6% down from 3.7% in April and  4.1% in March.
  • Unadjusted U-6 Unemployment-   May 7.3% Down from 7.4% in April and from 8.1% in March and 8.6% in February.
  • Employment 149.309 million up from 148.367 million in April and 147.369 million in March.
  • Gallup has discontinued publishing U-6 & U-3 numbers.

See Current Unemployment Chart for more info.

Employment by Sector

The employment “bubble chart” gives us a good representation of how each sector of the economy is doing (employment wise). As we can see from the chart below only one sector is to the left of the zero line this month indicating that all other sectors gained employees  except Utilities which lost -1,100 employees. The big gainers were Education and Health, Professional and business Services, Construction, Leisure and Manufacturing.

Employment by Sector Bubble Chart The biggest gainer was Education and Health Services (bubble furthest to the right) which added 39,000+ jobs, followed by Retail and Professional Services which each gained roughly 31,000 jobs, Leisure gained 21,000 jobs and manufacturing gained another 18,000 on top of consistently high gains for the last few months. Average weekly earnings for all industries increased to $928.74.

(See the table below the chart for average weekly earnings and other details.)

How to read this chart:

Bubbles location on the chart tell us two things:

  • Change in Employment Levels over the most recent month.
  • Average Weekly earnings.
  • The further to the right the bubble the larger the increase in the number of jobs.
  • The higher up on the chart the larger the average salary.

Bubble Size tells us:

  • Total Employment for the sector.
  • Larger bubbles mean more people are employed in that sector.

Employment and Average Weekly Earnings by Industry for All Employees

May  2018, Seasonally Adjusted

Industry Monthly Increase Average Weekly Earnings Employment Level
Total Private Employment 218,000 $928.74 126,336,000
Mining and Logging 4,000 $1,500.09 733,000
Construction 25,000 $1,174.14 7,210,000
Manufacturing 18,000 $1,097.52 12,673,000
Wholesale trade 4,200 $1,189.81 5,954,800
Retail trade 31,100 $579.70 15,970,300
Transportation and Warehousing 18,700 $940.41 5,309,300
Utilities -1,100 $1,689.89 554,400
Information 6,000 $1,418.40 2,775,000
Financial Activities 8,000 $1,303.88 8,559,000
Professional and Business Services 31,000 $1,164.92 20,891,000
Education and Health Services 39,000 $887.70 23,563,000
Leisure and Hospitality 21,000 $413.95 16,281,000
Other Services 13,000 $772.53 5,862,000

[Read more…] about May Unemployment Lowest Since 2000