Tim McMahon, Editor of UnemploymentData.com

My grandfather lived through the Hyperinflation in Weimar, Germany--to say he was an original “gold bug” would be an understatement. I began reading his “hard money” newsletters at the age of 16 and the dividends from gold stocks helped put me through college. I began publishing the Financial Trend Forecaster paper newsletter in 1995 upon the death of James Moore editor of Your Window into the Future and the creator of the Moore Inflation Predictor©. FTF specializes in trends in the stock market, gold, inflation and bonds. In January of 2003, I began publishing InflationData.com to specialize in all forms of information about the nature of Inflation. In 2009, we added Elliott Wave University to help teach you the principles of Elliott Wave analysis. In January 2013, we began publishing OptioMoney. Connect with Tim on Google+.

June Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Down

July 4, 2025 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for June on July 3^rd,2025.

Employment / Unemployment

Seasonally Adjusted U3- 4.1% Down from 4.2%
Unadjusted U3- 4.4% Up from 4.0% in May
Unadjusted U6- 8.1% Up from 7.4% in May
Labor Force Participation Rate- 62.3% Down from 62.4%
Employment- 160.475 million Up from 159.958 million
Next data release August 1, 2025

Summary:

Total Employed increased in June, Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment was down, but Unadjusted Unemployment increased. Economists were predicting a bad report, but a superficial look makes this appear to be a good report. This shocked the legacy media, thinking that it turned out better than expected. But a deeper look shows cracks appearing. Wages pretty much across the board fell, with average weekly earnings down slightly. And U6 unadjusted unemployment went up from 7.4% to 8.1% and U3 unadjusted unemployment went up from 4.0% to 4.4%. Typically, June unemployment increases due to students entering the workforce, but…

According to ADP the economy lost -33,000 jobs…

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 147,000 in June, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in state government and health care. Federal government continued to lose jobs…

Both the unemployment rate, at 4.1 percent, and the number of unemployed people, at 7.0 million, changed little in June. The unemployment rate has remained in a narrow range of 4.0 percent to 4.2 percent since May 2024…”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 159.964 million for May
which they adjusted slightly to 159.958 million in July.

They are currently reporting 160.475 million jobs for June which is actually an increase of 511,000 jobs based on their original numbers or 517,000 based on their new May numbers. The LFPR decreased from 62.4% to 62.3%.

Current Unemployment Rate Chart

As we can see, unemployment is 0.6% above pre-COVID lows of 2019 and the January and April lows of 2023.

Blue-Collar Wages Surge in 2025

June 17, 2025 by Tim McMahon

According to recent data from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, in the first five months of President Donald Trump’s second term, blue-collar workers have experienced the strongest early-term wage gains for working-class Americans under any U.S. president in nearly 60 years. The 1.7% real (i.e., inflation-adjusted) wage increase sharply contrasts with negative growth under most Presidents.

Since President Richard Nixon took office in 1969, no other president has matched this level of early-term wage growth for non-supervisory and production workers. Nixon’s comparable figure stood at just 0.8% during his initial months in office. Trump’s latest achievement builds upon his previous track record; in his first term, blue-collar wages grew by 1.3% in the same period, already a strong showing, but now surpassed. [Read more…] about Blue-Collar Wages Surge in 2025

Does Raising The Minimum Wage Make A Substantial Difference?

June 16, 2025 by Tim McMahon

Minimum wage increases seem to be a “hot-button” topic for many people. On the surface, it seems obvious—if we raise the minimum wage, workers will earn more and be better off. But, economics is rarely that simple, and in the real-world consequences often tell a more complicated story.

Productivity, Not Policy, Drives Wage Growth

To begin, we need to understand a fundamental economic truth: wages are ultimately tied to productivity, not legislation. Governments can set legal minimums, but unless a worker produces enough value to justify that wage, forcing businesses to pay more becomes unsustainable. Sustainable wage growth only occurs when individuals generate more value for their employers, whether that’s through skills, efficiency, or technology.

What Happens When Minimum Wages Go Up?

Raising the minimum wage might sound compassionate, but businesses don’t exist to pay more than necessary for labor. When mandated wages rise, businesses react, and not always in ways that benefit workers.

They have a few options:

Cut jobs or hours
Automate roles (think kiosks replacing cashiers)
Outsource or offshore tasks
Close or relocate altogether

A striking example came in 2024 when California implemented a $20/hour minimum wage for certain fast-food workers. The result? Over 10,000 jobs disappeared almost immediately. More than 1,500 restaurants shut down or moved operations to lower-cost states. Far from helping workers, this policy left many unemployed or underemployed, and some businesses simply vanished. [Read more…] about Does Raising The Minimum Wage Make A Substantial Difference?

May Employment Nothing Burger

June 6, 2025 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for May on June 6^th,2025.

Employment / Unemployment

Seasonally Adjusted U3- 4.2% Unchanged
Unadjusted U3- 4.0% Up from 3.9% in April
Unadjusted U6- 7.4% Up from 7.3% in April
Labor Force Participation Rate- 62.4% Down from 62.6%
Employment- 159.964 million Up from 159.238 million
Next data release July 3^rd, 2025

Summary:

Although Total Employed increased slightly in May, and Unadjusted Unemployment was up slightly, Seasonally adjusted Unemployment stayed exactly the same indicating that although unemployment increased it was typical for the month of May. And unemployment has been in a narrow range for an entire year.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 139,000 in May, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in health care, leisure and hospitality, and social assistance. Federal government continued to lose jobs…

The unemployment rate held at 4.2 percent in May and has remained in a narrow range of 4.0 percent to 4.2 percent since May 2024. The number of unemployed people, at 7.2 million, changed little over the month…

In May, the employment-population ratio declined by 0.3 percentage point to 59.7 percent. The labor force participation rate decreased by 0.2 percentage point to 62.4 percent.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 159.316 million for April
which they adjusted slightly to 159.238 million in June.

They are currently reporting 159.964 million jobs for May which is actually an increase of +648,000 jobs based on their original numbers or +726,000 jobs based on their new adjusted numbers. The LFPR was lower at 62.4%.

Current Unemployment Rate Chart

As we can see, unemployment is 0.7% above pre-COVID lows of 2019 and 0.8% above the January and April lows of 2023.

April 2025 Employment / Unemployment Report

May 3, 2025 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for April on May 2^nd,2025.

Employment / Unemployment

Seasonally Adjusted U3- 4.2% Unchanged
Unadjusted U3- 3.9% Down from 4.2% in March
Unadjusted U6- 7.3% Down from 7.9% in March
Labor Force Participation Rate- 62.6% Up from 62.5%
Employment- 159.316 million Up from 158.411 million
Next data release June 6^th, 2025

Summary:

Total Employed increased in April, Unadjusted Unemployment was down, but Seasonally adjusted Unemployment remained the same.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 177,000 in April, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in health care, transportation and warehousing, financial activities, and social assistance. Federal government employment declined…

Health care added 51,000 jobs in April, about the same as the average monthly gain of 52,000 over the prior 12 months. In April, job growth continued in hospitals (+22,000) and ambulatory health care services (+21,000)…

Employment in transportation and warehousing increased by 29,000 in April…

Financial activities employment continued to trend up (+14,000)…

Employment in social assistance continued its upward trend in April (+8,000) but at a slower pace than the average monthly gain over the prior 12 months (+20,000).

Within government, federal government employment declined by 9,000 in April and is down by 26,000 since January. (Employees on paid leave or receiving ongoing severance pay are counted as employed in the establishment survey.)”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally, the BLS reported employment of 158.506 million for March which they adjusted slightly to 158.411 million in April.

They are currently reporting 159.316 million jobs for April which is actually an increase of 810,000 jobs. Based on their original numbers.

Current Unemployment Rate Chart

As we can see, unemployment is 0.7% above pre-COVID lows of 2019 and 0.8% above the January and April lows of 2023.

March 2025- Employment / Unemployment Report

April 5, 2025 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for March on April 4^th,2025.

Employment / Unemployment

Seasonally Adjusted U3- 4.2% Up from 4.1%
Unadjusted U3- 4.2% Down from 4.5% in February
Unadjusted U6- 7.9% Down from 8.4% in February
Labor Force Participation Rate- 62.5% Up from 62.4%
Employment- 158.506 million Up from 157.950 million
Next data release May 2^nd, 2025

Summary:

The total number of Employed increased in March, and Unadjusted Unemployment was down but Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment was up.

So although Unadjusted Unemployment fell sharply from 4.5% to 4.2% Adjusted Unemployment rose slightly from 4.1% to 4.2%.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 228,000 in March, higher than the average monthly gain of 158,000 over the prior 12 months. In March, job gains occurred in health care, in social assistance, and in transportation and warehousing.

Employment also increased in retail trade, partially reflecting the return of workers from a strike. Federal government employment declined.

Health care added 54,000 jobs in March, in line with the average monthly gain of 52,000 over the prior 12 months.

Retail trade added 24,000 jobs in March, as workers returning from a strike contributed to a job gain in food and beverage retailers (+21,000).

Employment in transportation and warehousing rose by 23,000 in March, about double the prior 12-month average gain of 12,000.

Within government, federal government employment declined by 4,000 in March, following a loss of 11,000 jobs in February. (Employees on paid leave or receiving ongoing severance pay are counted as employed in the establishment survey.)”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 157.983 million for February
which they adjusted slightly to 157.950 million.

They are currently reporting 158.506 million jobs for March which is actually an increase of 523,000 jobs based on their original numbers. The LFPR was up from 62.4% to 62.5%.

Current Unemployment Rate Chart

As the chart below shows, although unemployment is still low, it is above the lows of 2019 and 2023. At 4.2%, Seasonally Adjusted unemployment is still “Very Good” it is still lower than the lowest achieved in 2006-2007.

February 2025 Jobs Report

March 8, 2025 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for February on March 7^th,2025.

Employment / Unemployment

Seasonally Adjusted U3- 4.1% Up from 4.0%
Unadjusted U3- 4.5% Up from 4.4% in January
Unadjusted U6- 8.4% Up from 8.2% in January
Labor Force Participation Rate 62.4% Down from 62.6%
Employment 157.983 million Up from 157.092 million
Next data release April 4^th, 2025

Summary:
Total Employed increased in February, but Unadjusted Unemployment was up. Seasonally adjusted Unemployment also increased.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 151,000 in February, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment trended up in health care, financial activities, transportation and warehousing, and social assistance. Federal government employment declined…

Both the unemployment rate, at 4.1 percent, and the number of unemployed people, at 7.1 million, changed little in February. The unemployment rate has remained in a narrow range of 4.0 percent to 4.2 percent since May 2024…

In February, employment trended up in health care, financial activities, transportation and warehousing, and social assistance. Federal government employment declined.“

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 157.091 million jobs for January
which they just adjusted slightly to 157.092 million.

They are currently reporting 157.983 million jobs for February which is actually an increase of 892,000 jobs.

Despite the rise in employment, unemployment was also up, and the Labor Force participation rate was down.

The LFPR was down from 62.6% to 62.4%.

Current Unemployment Rate Chart

As the chart below shows, although unemployment is still low, it is above the lows of 2019 and 2023. At 4.1%, Seasonally Adjusted unemployment is still “Very Good”.

January 2025 BLS Employment Report

February 8, 2025 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for January on February 7^th,2025.

Employment / Unemployment

Seasonally Adjusted U3- 4.0% Down from December
Unadjusted U3- 4.4% Up from December
Unadjusted U6- 8.2% Up from December
Labor Force Participation Rate 62.6% Up
Employment 157.091 million Down from 159.943 million
Next data release March 7^th, 2025

Summary:
The BLS sent mixed signals in January, with the Commissioner’s report stating a rise in employment and a fall in adjusted unemployment. However, the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report shows a decline in the number of employed and a massive downward adjustment in employment for all of 2023 and 2024.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 143,000 in January, and the unemployment rate edged down to 4.0 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, retail trade, and social assistance. Employment declined in the mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction industry…

The unemployment rate edged down to 4.0 percent in January, after accounting for the annual adjustments to the population controls. The number of unemployed people, at 6.8 million, changed little over the month.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 160.458 million for December
which they just adjusted to 159.943 million.

They are currently reporting 157.091 million jobs for January which is actually a decrease of 3,367,000 jobs compared to their originally reported numbers or a decrease of 2,852,000 based on their new numbers.

Despite the drop in employment the LFPR was up from 62.5% to 62.6% which could indicate an increase in people entering the labor force rather than an increase in jobs.

Current Unemployment Rate Chart

As the chart below shows, although unemployment is still low, it is above the lows of 2019 and 2023. At 4.0%, Seasonally Adjusted unemployment is still “Very Good”.

December 2024 Unemployment Report

January 11, 2025 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for December on January 10^th,2025.

Employment / Unemployment

Seasonally Adjusted U3- 4.1% Down from November
Unadjusted U3- 3.8% Down from November
Unadjusted U6- 7.4% Unchanged
Labor Force Participation Rate 62.5% Unchanged
Employment 160.458 million Down from 160.539 million
Next data release February 7^th, 2025

Summary:
Total Employed Decreased in December, Unadjusted Unemployment was unchanged, but Seasonally adjusted Unemployment decreased.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 256,000 in December, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment trended up in health care, government, and social assistance. Retail trade added jobs in December, following a job loss in November.

The unemployment rate changed little at 4.1 percent in December. After increasing earlier in the year, the unemployment rate has been either 4.1 percent or 4.2 percent for the past 7 months. The number of unemployed people, at 6.9 million, also changed little in December.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 160.560 million for November
which they adjusted to 160.539 million this month.

They are currently reporting 160.458 million jobs for December which is actually a decrease of -102,000 jobs based on their original numbers. Or -81,000 jobs based on their revised numbers.

The LFPR was unchanged at 62.5%.

Bad News or Good News?

Once again, the perverse nature of the stock market showed its ugly head. The market took the BLS report as good enough to generate fear that the FED won’t cut rates again soon. So, the NYSE lost 547.73 points or 2.8%. This brought the market back down to the lows of December 19, 2024.

Current Unemployment Rate Chart

As we can see from the chart below, although still low, unemployment has risen 0.7 percentage points since the lows of 2023. At 4.1%, unemployment is no longer in the “Excellent” range but still in the “Very Good” range.

November Unemployment Report

December 7, 2024 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for November on December 6^th,2024.

Employment / Unemployment

Seasonally Adjusted U3- 4.2% Up from October
Unadjusted U3- 4.0% Up from October
Unadjusted U6- 7.4% Up from October
Labor Force Participation Rate 62.5% down from October
Employment 160.560 million up from 160.035 million
Next data release January 3^rd, 2025

Summary:
Total Employed increased in November, but Unemployment increased. Labor Force Participation fell by 0.1%. In the perversity of markets, overall, the report was sufficiently bad to give the market hope for another rate cut by the FED.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 227,000 in November, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment trended up in health care, leisure and hospitality, government, and social assistance. Retail trade lost jobs.

Both the unemployment rate, at 4.2 percent, and the number of unemployed people, at 7.1 million, changed little in November. These measures are higher than a year earlier, when the jobless rate was 3.7 percent, and the number of unemployed people was 6.3 million.”

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 160.007 million for October
which they adjusted slightly to 160.035 million.

They are currently reporting 160.560 million jobs for November which is actually an increase of 525,000 jobs based on the new numbers or 553,000 based on the original numbers. The LFPR was down from 62.6% to 62.5%.

Bad News is Good News?

Once again, the stock market took the report as bad enough to generate hope that the FED will cut rates again soon but not so bad to wreck the economy.

Current Unemployment Rate Chart

As we can see from the chart below, although still low, over the last year unemployment has risen 0.8% from the lows of 2023. At 4.2% unemployment is no longer in the “Excellent” range but still in the “Very Good” range.