Tim McMahon, Editor of UnemploymentData.com

My grandfather lived through the Hyperinflation in Weimar, Germany--to say he was an original “gold bug” would be an understatement. I began reading his “hard money” newsletters at the age of 16 and the dividends from gold stocks helped put me through college. I began publishing the Financial Trend Forecaster paper newsletter in 1995 upon the death of James Moore editor of Your Window into the Future and the creator of the Moore Inflation Predictor©. FTF specializes in trends in the stock market, gold, inflation and bonds. In January of 2003, I began publishing InflationData.com to specialize in all forms of information about the nature of Inflation. In 2009, we added Elliott Wave University to help teach you the principles of Elliott Wave analysis. In January 2013, we began publishing OptioMoney. Connect with Tim on Google+.

August 2024 Jobs Report

September 7, 2024 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for August on September 6^th,2024.

Employment / Unemployment

Seasonally Adjusted U3- 4.2% down from 4.3% in July
Unadjusted U3- 4.4% down from 4.5% in July
Unadjusted U6- 8.0% down from 8.2% in July
Labor Force Participation Rate 62.7% unchanged
Employment 158.650 million up from 158.387 million
Next data release October 4^th, 2024

Summary:
Total Employed increased in August increased by 205,000 while the Civilian non-institutional population (a relatively narrow definition) increased by 212,000 over the same period so jobs didn’t even keep up with the population.

To make matters worse, jobs decreased by -947,000 in July and then the BLS announced the March 2024 Jobs numbers will be adjusted down by 818,000 in January. So, we can expect the January adjustment report to show all the numbers for 2024 to be pretty much fiction.

But… According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 142,000 in August, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in construction and health care…

Both the unemployment rate, at 4.2 percent, and the number of unemployed people, at 7.1 million, changed little in August. These measures are higher than a year earlier, when the jobless rate was 3.8 percent, and the number of unemployed people was 6.3 million.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 158.445 million for July
which they adjusted down -58,000 to 158.387 million in today’s report .

They are currently reporting 158.650 million jobs for August which is actually an increase of 205,000 jobs based on their originally reported July numbers. But still below the 159.392 million originally reported in June and not that much different than the 158.461 originally reported last November. The LFPR was unchanged from July at 62.7%.

Bad News for the Market?

The stock market peaked on August 30th and has fallen since then and the jobs report didn’t help stem the decline. After the Friday jobs report the NYSE fell another 1.14%. Our NYSE ROC chart created based on August month-end numbers showed a cross above the top line of a long-term channel and we said “The market is definitely at a point of exuberance. We can expect it to correct back down to at least the yellow Mid-Term Support.”

The current drop just brings the NYSE back within the channel, so it still has a long way to go to get to the channel mid-point.

On the geopolitical front, Hamas killed several hostages rather than let them be rescued. So the market still fears a war in the Middle East. The Japanese financial problems seem to have settled down now and the market is anticipating a FED rate cut shortly.

Current Unemployment Rate Chart

Seasonally Adjusted U3 Unemployment is well above the pre-COVID 2019 cyclical lows of 3.5%, but is approaching the yellow zone.

BLS Erases 800,000 Jobs

August 28, 2024 by Tim McMahon

On August 21, 2024, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released a notice that seems to be taking Social Media by storm. In it the BLS stated that after doing their ordinary checking they found that March 2024 data overestimated the number of jobs by 818,000. This is a preliminary to the regular audit that they do every January. So, in this audit they are only checking March as a sample of what is to come.

Back in April when this data was released we published an article entitled March 2024 Employment Higher Than Expected and now we know why. Originally, they said there were 157,218,000 jobs in March up from 156,599,000 putting employment 659,000 jobs above the previous year. But if that number were actually a decrease of -818,000 rather than an increase, it would have meant that jobs were LOWER than the previous year not higher, which would probably have had more impact on markets.

If you have been a long-time subscriber you will know that this isn’t the first time that the BLS has made massive changes to their numbers after the fact. Every month the numbers are different from the originally issued numbers. Sometimes they are slightly different and sometimes they are significantly different. They continue modifying them for three months and then they go back in January and modify them once more. [Read more…] about BLS Erases 800,000 Jobs

July Jobs Report Spooks Stock Market

August 3, 2024 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for July on August 2^nd,2024.

Employment / Unemployment

Seasonally Adjusted U3- 4.3% up from 4.1% in June
Unadjusted U3- 4.5% up from 4.3% in June
Unadjusted U6- 8.2% up from 7.7% in June
Labor Force Participation Rate 62.7% up from 62.6%
Employment 158.445 million down from 159.360 million
Next data release September 6^th, 2024

Summary:
Total Employed decreased in July, adjusted and Unadjusted Unemployment was up.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“The unemployment rate rose to 4.3 percent in July, and nonfarm payroll employment edged up by 114,000, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in health care, in construction, and in transportation and warehousing, while information lost jobs.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 159.392 million for June
which they then adjusted to 159.360 million in August.

They are currently reporting 158.445 million jobs for July which is actually a decrease of 947,000 jobs based on their original numbers. The LFPR was up at 62.7% but the Employment/Population Ratio was down from 60.1% to 60.0%.

Bad News for the Market?

On Wednesday (prior to the Jobs data release on Friday) the stock market reacted bullishly to FED Chairman Powell’s dovish speech with anticipation of a September rate cut. But then markets reversed course on Thursday on preliminary Employment numbers. But what they failed to recognize is that the worst months (highest unemployment) are usually January, June, and July. So a bad July doesn’t really signify much.

Adding to the market’s woes, Intel dropped a bombshell with its earnings report. The company announced plans to slash jobs and suspend dividends after missing earnings targets and delivering a disappointing sales forecast. Intel shares cratered over 25% in early trading, dragging other chip stocks down with it.

In other news, Israel is suspected of killing a Hamas leader inside Iran. So now the market also fears retaliation by Iran causing a war in the Middle East. In addition to these political problems, Japan is creating financial problems for the U.S. by raising interest rates while other countries are lowering them. As you can see from the chart below, Japan has had zero or near-zero interest rates for almost 30 years. For a brief stretch, their rates got all the way up to 3/4 of 1%! (Horror of Horrors). But since 2008 they have been below 1/3rd of 1%.

This has created what is called the “Carry Trade” where people could borrow Yen almost interest-free and invest that money in higher-yielding things like Nvidia or other NASDAQ stocks or even lower-risk things like U.S. Treasury Bills. However, with the Bank of Japan (BOJ) raising rates, the free money is drying up, which creates selling pressure on the NASDAQ.

The NYSE was down -1.79% on Friday after being down -1.16% on Thursday.

Current Unemployment Rate Chart

Seasonally Adjusted U3 Unemployment remains above the pre-COVID 2019 cyclical lows of 3.5%, but is approaching the yellow zone.

Opportunities You Can Find With a CDL License

July 15, 2024 by Tim McMahon

Deciding to obtain a Commercial Driver’s License (CDL) can unlock a variety of career paths in the transportation industry. From long-haul trucking to local delivery, each role offers its own unique set of opportunities and demands. Whether driving across the country or staying within city limits, CDL holders can find fulfilling jobs that suit different lifestyles and preferences. Understanding the different opportunities available with a CDL can help you make an informed decision about which path might be right for you.

Long-Haul Truck Driver

Long-haul truck drivers are essential to the transportation industry, delivering goods across vast distances. These professionals typically drive heavy-duty trucks and spend several days or even weeks on the road giving you the opportunity to see a lot of the country. A key aspect of this career is the ability to navigate various terrains and weather conditions while adhering to strict delivery schedules. Long-haul drivers often experience the independence of solitary travel but must also manage tasks such as logging hours and maintaining their vehicles. Employers often look for reliability, a clean driving record, and the ability to manage extended periods away from home.

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Heavy and Tractor-trailer Truck Drivers earned $54,320 per year or $26.12 per hour in 2023. Heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers usually have a high school diploma and attend a professional truck driving school. They must have a commercial driver’s license (CDL). [Read more…] about Opportunities You Can Find With a CDL License

June Employment Weak

July 6, 2024 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for June on July 5^th,2024.

Employment / Unemployment

Seasonally Adjusted U3- 4.1% up from 4.0% in May
Unadjusted U3- 4.3% up from 3.7% in May
Unadjusted U6- 7.7% up from 7.1% in May
Labor Force Participation Rate 62.6% up from 62.5%
Employment 159.392 million up from 158.845 million
Next data release August 2^nd, 2024

Summary:
Total Employed increased in June, Unadjusted Unemployment was up sharply, but Seasonally adjusted Unemployment increased only slightly.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 206,000 in June, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in government, health care, social assistance, and construction…

Both the unemployment rate, at 4.1 percent, and the number of unemployed people, at 6.8 million, changed little in June. These measures are higher than a year earlier, when the jobless rate was 3.6 percent and the number of unemployed people was 6.0 million.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 158.918 million for May
which they now adjusted to 158.845 million.

They are currently reporting 159.392 million jobs for June which is actually an increase of 474,000 jobs compare to what they first reported or 547,000 compared to their new numbers.

The LFPR was up from 62.5% to 62.6%.

Good News for the Market?

In the perverse stock market of these post-pandemic days, the market is looking for an excuse for the FED to cut interest rates so “Bad News is Good News” for the market.

The news wasn’t bad enough to spark a major rally but after falling initially, at around 10:30 AM the market turned around and rallied for the rest of the day taking it to slightly above the previous day’s close. So basically a giant “nothing burger”.

Current Unemployment Rate Chart

Seasonally Adjusted U3 Unemployment remains above the pre-COVID 2019 cyclical lows of 3.5%, but is approaching the yellow zone.

[Read more…] about June Employment Weak

From Layoff to Lift-Off: Starting Your Own Construction Business

June 25, 2024 by Tim McMahon

The construction business can be very volatile. One day everyone is too busy and the next day people are getting laid off left and right. If you’ve recently experienced a layoff in the construction industry, you may be considering taking your skills and expertise to the next level by starting your own construction business. This transition can be both challenging and rewarding, but with the right skills and information, you can turn this setback into a successful lift-off for your entrepreneurial journey.

Finding Your Niche in the Industry

Before diving headfirst into launching your construction business, it’s crucial to identify and hone in on your niche. Start by reflecting on your skills, experience, and passions within the industry. Do you have a knack for residential construction, excelling in building family homes and multifamily units? Or perhaps your expertise lies in commercial projects, such as office buildings, retail centers, or large-scale renovations. Consider whether you possess specialized knowledge in emerging trends like sustainable and green building practices, or you want to focus on the tried and true, like remodeling and repairs for Senior Citizens. By identifying a niche, you can target a specific market segment, tailor your services to meet particular needs and distinguish yourself from the competition.

Once you’ve pinpointed your niche, conduct thorough market research to understand demand, competition, and potential client needs. Look into industry reports, local construction trends, and potential gaps in the market that your new business could fill. Networking with industry professionals and joining construction trade organizations can also offer valuable insights and opportunities. Ultimately, having a clear niche enables you to develop a focused business strategy, streamline your marketing efforts, and build a reputation as an expert in your chosen field. Remember, carving out your specific place within the construction sector can significantly enhance your chances of success and long-term growth.

How To Excel As An Electric Vehicle Technician

June 18, 2024 by Tim McMahon

The demand for skilled electric vehicle technicians is surging, with the automotive industry rapidly transitioning towards electric vehicles (EVs). Today we explore the essential skills required to excel in this field and the training options available to aspiring EV technicians. By understanding the necessary competencies and choosing the right training path, you can set yourself up for a promising career in EV maintenance and repair.

The Rise of Electric Vehicles (EVs) and the Need for Skilled Technicians

The global shift towards sustainable energy has significantly accelerated the adoption of electric vehicles. Governments and consumers alike are increasingly recognizing the environmental and economic benefits of EVs, leading to a growing number of electric vehicles on the road. With this rise comes an urgent need for skilled technicians who can maintain and repair these advanced machines. Technicians with specialized knowledge of EV technology are essential to ensuring the longevity and efficiency of electric vehicle fleets.

Essential Skills for EV Technicians

Understanding EV Technology

One of the most fundamental skills for an EV technician is a thorough understanding of electric vehicle technology. This includes knowledge of how electric motors work, the functionality of battery systems, and the integration of various electronic components. A solid grasp of EV technology forms the foundation for all other skills.

Proficiency in Electrical Systems

Electric vehicles rely heavily on sophisticated electrical systems. Thus, proficiency in electrical engineering principles is crucial. Technicians must be adept at working with high-voltage systems, diagnosing electrical faults, and implementing effective repairs. This requires a keen eye for detail and a systematic approach to problem-solving. [Read more…] about How To Excel As An Electric Vehicle Technician

May 2024 Employment- Good News is Bad News?

June 8, 2024 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for May on June 7^th,2024.

Employment / Unemployment

Seasonally Adjusted U-3 was 4.0% up from 3.9% in April
Unadjusted U-3 was 3.7% up from 3.5% in April
Unadjusted U-6 was 7.1% up from 6.9% in April
Labor Force Participation was 62.5% down from 62.7%
Unadjusted Employment rose from 158.001 million to 158.918 million
Next data release July 5^th 2024

Summary:
Total Employed increased in May, but Unemployment was also up.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 272,000 in May, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.0 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in several industries, led by health care; government; leisure and hospitality; and professional, scientific, and technical services.

Both the unemployment rate, at 4.0 percent, and the number of unemployed people, at 6.6 million, changed little in May. A year earlier, the jobless rate was 3.7 percent, and the number of unemployed people was 6.1 million.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 158.016 million for April which they adjusted slightly to 158.001 million in May.

They are currently reporting 158.918 million jobs for May which is actually an increase of 902,000 jobs based on their original numbers or 917,000 based on their new numbers for April. The LFPR was down from 62.7% to 62.5%.

The LFPR was down from 62.7% to 62.5%.

Bad News for the Market

In the perverse stock market of these post-pandemic days, the market is looking for an excuse for the FED to cut interest rates so “Bad News is Good News” for the market.

BUT… This month was the opposite of last month, the “experts” were only expecting 190,000 new jobs but the BLS reported 272,000 new jobs. So the market fell on the “good news”. However, had they focused on the Adjusted U3 number itself (like they did last month) which rose from 3.9% to 4.0% the market would have risen. This is the same percentage increase as last month which went from 3.8% in March to 3.9% in April. But last month that increase triggered a buying spree.

And all those extra jobs that the market was worried about? 43,000 of them were new government jobs! Hardly the sign of a booming economy. Mr. Market may have been fooled by the ADP report (which is released 2 days before the BLS report) that showed only 152,000 new jobs based on actual payroll records that ADP processes.

So, the real numbers don’t really matter, as Bob Prechter of Elliottwave International says, all that matters is finding an excuse to do what the market wants to do anyway.

Current Unemployment Rate Chart

Seasonally Adjusted U3 Unemployment remains above the pre-COVID 2019 cyclical lows of 3.5%, as well as above the lows made early in 2023. The unemployment rate is inching back toward the yellow zone.

Unlocking The Value Of A “Career College” Degree In Today’s Economy

May 8, 2024 by Tim McMahon

As the 1960s Bob Dylan song says The Times They are a-changin’. Today an ordinary Bachelor of Arts degree doesn’t carry much weight. But a practical degree from a “Career College” that teaches you real-life skills can be much more valuable.

Navigating the Job Market through Upskilling

In a landscape where job stability is increasingly rare, the significance of education and skill enhancement is more critical than ever. Acquiring new, relevant skills or honing existing ones offers a tangible path to securing stable employment. It’s about making oneself indispensable in roles that are in demand, regardless of economic fluctuations.

Understanding “Career Colleges”

Career colleges, often misunderstood and undervalued, offer a unique value proposition. These programs aim to equip students with highly sought-after practical skills in shorter timeframes than traditional four-year educational institutions provide. These colleges focus on hands-on training and real-world applications, preparing students for specific careers quickly and effectively.

Career colleges offer specialized training in fields that are in high demand, such as cybersecurity, office administration, graphics design, web design, data analytics, and healthcare management. This prepares students for careers in emerging industries and fields.

Career colleges also prioritize job readiness, ensuring that students are prepared to enter the workforce immediately upon graduation. This often includes training in soft skills, resume building, and interview preparation.

April Unemployment- Bad News is Good News?

May 4, 2024 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for April on May 3^rd,2024.

Employment / Unemployment

Seasonally Adjusted U3: 3.9% up from 3.8% in March
Unadjusted U3: 3.5% down from 3.9% in March
Unadjusted U6: 6.9% down from 7.4% in March
Labor Force Participation was 62.7% unchanged
Unadjusted Employment rose from 157.213 million to 158.016 million
Next data release June 7^th 2024

Summary:
Total Employed increased in April, Unadjusted Unemployment was down, but Seasonally adjusted Unemployment increased.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 175,000 in April, and the unemployment rate changed little at 3.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains
occurred in health care, in social assistance, and in transportation and warehousing.

Both the unemployment rate, at 3.9 percent, and the number of unemployed people, at 6.5 million changed little in April. The unemployment rate has remained in a narrow range of 3.7 percent to 3.9 percent since August 2023.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 157.218 million for March which they adjusted slightly to 157.213 million.

They are currently reporting 158.016 million jobs for April which is actually an increase of 798,000 jobs compared to the original numbers or 803,000 based on their new numbers.

The LFPR was unchanged at 62.7%.

Bad News is Good News for the Market

In the perverse stock market of these post-pandemic days, the market is looking for an excuse for the FED to cut interest rates so “Bad News is Good News” for the market. So, with the Adjusted U3 rising, Mr. Market took that as “Bad News” and rallied.

BUT… was it really even bad news? Or was it Fake News?

First of all, it was only the “Adjusted” U3 that increased, the Unadjusted U3 was down from 3.9% to 3.5% and the Unadjusted U6 was down from 7.4% to 6.9%. So, unadjusted unemployment was good news, making it bad news for the market?

Typically we can think of the adjusted rate as a comparison to the average. So let’s look at what has happened in the UNADJUSTED U3 over the last few years.

Unadjusted U3

Date	March	April	Change
2024	3.9%	3.5%	-0.4%
2023	3.6%	3.1%	-0.5%
2022	3.8%	3.3%	-0.5%
2021	6.2%	5.7%	-0.5%

So, what do we see? Over the last few years, the unadjusted U-3 declined -0.5% from March to April so that is the “normal” behavior for March – April. But this year, it only declined -0.4%. So, in perverse Government logic, it increased by +0.1%. Thus, Adjusted U-3 went from 3.8% last month to 3.9% this month. But actual unemployment fell from 3.9% to 3.5% this is a decrease not an increase (just not quite as big a decrease as usual). But Mr. Market was looking for an excuse to rally, so any excuse will do.

As I’ve said many times, January unemployment is the worst and it gets progressively better until summer when all the kids get out of school and the workforce swells making it look like more people are unemployed.

Actually, there are some good reasons for the Seasonal adjustments see Adj vs Unadj. But in this case, looking at the Adjusted numbers compared to last month isn’t going to give you the picture the market was looking for. Looking at the chart below we can see that even at 3.9% unemployment is still in the green, so there is nothing there to convince the FED to start easing.

Current Unemployment Rate Chart

Seasonally Adjusted U3 Unemployment remains above the pre-COVID 2019 cyclical lows of 3.5%, as well as above the lows made early in 2023. But have retreated away from the “yellow zone.”